I’m not sure if I’m critiquing our teams ability to draft in the 7th. While I don’t think the stat 6/16 is accurate (we had a good 3 7ths other than Edelman in 09 that did nothing) but regardless, we are generally a very good late round drafting team compared to the rest..
I’m more along the lines of critiquing 7th round picks in general, and how very few become relevant impact players. I doubt the stat would be even 10% for most teams.
I still stick with the point that 7th rounders aren’t of high value. I’m fine with trading down, but don’t see the value of trading down essentially to acquire a bunch of 7ths.
Sort of a quality vs. quantity type of situation.
You're correct, 6/16 wasn't accurate. I simply guessed because I didn't have time at that moment to look it up. Since 2000 (inclusively) the Pats have selected college prospects in the 7th round 30 times. So, including Edelman, that's 7/30, about 23%.
I agree that 7th rounders aren't of
high value since they represent spots that are, essentially, near the end of the bread line. But that doesn't mean that they have
zero value.
Anyway, I don't recall BB ever specifically trading down
for 7th rounders. I'm pretty sure he's insisted that a 7th rounder be thrown in as part of a trade deal on several occasions, and I'm sure that he's
accepted two-7ths in exchange for a late 6th from a team that wanted to move up. In terms of the chances of acquiring an "impact player", there's no significant difference between a late-6th and a 7th.
For instance, the Pats' 2018 6th rounder is #205. If the Fins were to offer him the #223 and #229 in the 7th for it, he might take it if there isn't a specific player he's interested in at #205 who isn't likely to still be available at #223. Even though the odds may be ridiculously long either way, getting two Lotto tickets for the price of one still doubles your chances.
As I alluded to previously, 7th-rounders wouldn't be used with the expectation of coming up with a "relevant impact player". In pure "draft a prospect" terms, they're used on UDFA-types, perhaps with the
hope of coming up with a role player, special teamer, developmental candidate for the P-squad/scout team - all of which are still necessary for building a solid roster.
The odds of a 7th-rounder fulfilling that hope aren't really any greater than for a UDFA, but using the pick guarantees that BB gets a specific UDFA-type prospect who he's interested in and who he thinks other teams will be going after during the post-draft telephone scrum. As with any UDFA, if the guy turns out to be a "relevant impact player", that's kind of a bonus.
The thing to keep in mind is that draft picks are the fiat currency for NFL player acquisition via trade. Sure, you can trade a player for a player, but you can't trade cash (which would make the whole thing look
way too much like slavery). So, when considering the value of 7th round picks, you need to consider that aspect, too. The Pats pick up useful role players fairly often in trade for 7th-round picks - Marquis Flowers and Justin Coleman are a couple examples off the top of my head (Bademosi was acquired with a 6th).