"Expert" predictions thread

[jimnance]

The recent Barnwell article summed up my feelings. The Patriots offense is putting the D is fantastic position. When I read that the Jags defense had to face 4 games worth of offensive possessions MORE than the Patriots D, it jibed with what I've been seeing.

Maybe you should see an optometrist.

 

[jimnance]

Oh come on Bortles had his way for most of the game. The defense has trouble getting off the field and that’s undeniable

So I guess now winning games in the NFL will no longer be based on who scores the most-but on time of possession and yards.

 

[Ring 6]

I have not been convinced by them all year, but couldn't really put my finger on it. Just team speed in the middle maybe? But then when I read the Barnwell article about how the D greatly benefits from the Patriots offense, unlike any other team in the league, it gave me pause. By comparison, the Jags D faced 4 games worth more offensive possessions than the Patriots D. And that's because of the Patriots O.

Since week 5 the patriots have been one of the few best defenses in the nfl.
Defenses benefit from offenses, that’s football. The patriots defense won’t be playing with the jags offense on Sunday.

 

[Ring 6]

I have not been convinced by them all year, but couldn't really put my finger on it. Just team speed in the middle maybe? But then when I read the Barnwell article about how the D greatly benefits from the Patriots offense, unlike any other team in the league, it gave me pause. By comparison, the Jags D faced 4 games worth more offensive possessions than the Patriots D. And that's because of the Patriots O.

Those numbers aren’t correct either.

 

[fightingirish595]

Since week 5 the patriots have been one of the few best defenses in the nfl.
Defenses benefit from offenses, that’s football. The patriots defense won’t be playing with the jags offense on Sunday.

Do you have the exact stats by chance?

 

[JMC00]

The defense has trouble getting off the field and that’s undeniable

Teams on 3rd down against the Pats in the playoffs are 36.7%
Allowing 18.1 1st downs a game in the playoffs (league best in the reg. season was 16.1)


On the flipside Eagles defense on 3rd down 38.5%
and they are allowing 20.5 1st downs a game in the playoffs

Keep hearing how Eagles are such a good defense with all those pressures but looks like they have a tough time getting off the field as well...

 

[Angelpats]

Teams on 3rd down against the Pats in the playoffs are 36.7%
Allowing 18.1 1st downs a game in the playoffs (league best in the reg. season was 16.1)


On the flipside Eagles defense on 3rd down 38.5%
and they are allowing 20.5 1st downs a game in the playoffs

Keep hearing how Eagles are such a good defense with all those pressures but looks like they have a tough time getting off the field as well...

Everyone has the eagles Vikings game fresh in their minds. It effects their predictions. They looked like they were playing a jv team. All these predictions are mostly close games but I see two tendencies being broken. This game won’t be close and the league mvp will also win the Super Bowl myp.

 

[Ring 6]

Do you have the exact stats by chance?

Not handy but I’ve loiked them up before.

 

[Ring 6]

Do you have the exact stats by chance?

Since week 5 patriots #1 in points allowed at 168 (14 per game)
Minn 2nd at 175
Philly 5th at 208

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Just as long as Pal Salantonio doesn't pick the Pats...true kiss of death.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Everyone has the eagles Vikings game fresh in their minds. It effects their predictions. They looked like they were playing a jv team. All these predictions are mostly close games but I see two tendencies being broken. This game won’t be close and the league mvp will also win the Super Bowl myp.

Foles started to look good once Xavier Rhodes went out. The very next play he targeted Alshon Jeffrey for a TD. Minnesota failed to adjust.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

To have a little fun with "Expert" predictions - Comparing SB51 vs SB52:
**SB51 Prediction Winner, Texans Writer Sarah Barshop: 34-28 Perfect!**
--Sarah Barshop SB52 Prediction: 23-20 Patriots
**SB51 Prediction Loser: Trey Wingo: 27-17 Falcons**
--Trey Wingo SB52 Prediction: 70-0 Eagles

**100 Expert SB51 predictions with a final greater than 8 points: 12**
-(11 for the Patriots, 1 [Trey Wingo] predicting a Falcons win by 10)
**85 Expert SB52 predictions with a final greater than 8 points: 15**
-(10 for the Patriots, 5 for the Eagles[4 ranging from 9 to 11 points, Golic 21 points])

100 SB51 Experts, Winner Only: 72 said Patriots, 28 said Falcons(28? Ironic)
--28% of experts predicted a Falcons victory
85 SB52 Experts, Winner Only: 61 say Patriots, 24 say Eagles
--28.2% of experts predict an Eagles victory

Nearly the same % of SB51 and SB52 "experts" are predicting a Patriot victory greater than 8 while an Eagles victory greater than 8 is markedly more predicted than the Falcons in SB51. But from a 'who wins, no spread', virtually the same split between SB51 and SB52, 72% to 28%.

My Guess on the "experts" thinking: The Falcons were a super potent offensive juggernaut, far more potent than the Eagles, as well as having greater playoff experience. While the Eagles do possess the more potent D when compared to the Falcons, IMHO the greater number of "experts" breaking for an outright (>8) Eagles win is likely due to less confidence in the Patriots abilities versus the belief the Eagles are a better team than the Falcons (it could also simply be Patriots fatigue).

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Foles started to look good once Xavier Rhodes went out. The very next play he targeted Alshon Jeffrey for a TD. Minnesota failed to adjust.

When you look at the Eagles two playoff games there is one shining difference: red zone/near red zone D. The Eagles had sustained drives frequently in both games with Foles able to convert often. However, the Falcons red zone D played well keeping Foles from converting as the field became shorter. OTOH the Vikings red zone D just sucked the big one. Foles/the Eagles passing game was just as good on both sides of the field. And despite some hype about the Eagles run game, it was Foles passing that was the difference in both games (the only running that impacted the Eagles stats was largely junk time when the Vikings were pretty much toast).
Lessons from the games: Even with the Eagles looking like the better team, with the Falcons making the Eagles kick FGs, it provides the opportunity to win with a final possession (the Falcons were 2 yards from more likely than not eliminating the Eagles).

IMHO this is the crystal clear biggest key to the game: Patriots red zone D vs Foles passing game. I believe Foles will put up some numbers and convert third downs at a good clip between the 20s/30s(be prepared to see Foles hitting too many 6 to 9 yard deep crossing routes). But if the Patriots red zone D performs as good as, or better, than the Falcons? Despite my suspicion the Eagles will successfully dampen the Patriots scoring, the Patriots righteously clutch 2 minute offense will score a TD on their last possession and win 20-16.
Side note: the Patriots D having a good day creating TOs in one of their SBs is overdue !

 

[SVN]

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Foles had the game of his life against the Vikings, my bet is he turns into the real Nick foles Sunday. People aren't respecting the Pats D and the eagles are weak on D in the middle of ther field and against tight ends. Seems like a fairly easy Pats win to me.

 

[upstater1]

Those numbers aren’t correct either.

?? Barnwell's #s. He took total possessions and divided by average possessions per game across the league.

 

[upstater1]

In the afccg, Jags ran 71 offensive plays.
The Pats? 61. Hmm.

# of possessions. Not # of plays.

 

[Ring 6]

?? Barnwell's #s. He took total possessions and divided by average possessions per game across the league.

Well it doesn’t add up in addition to being meaningless

 

[luuked]

# of possessions. Not # of plays.

How does number of possessions say anything more relevant than number of plays in the context of what each defense was facing ?

The defense saved the game against the Jaguars by giving the inconsistent, sometimes inept offense enough possessions and field position to score.

 

[sb1]

Florio and MDS say Pats.