"Expert" predictions thread

[Todd Bradley]

There's a guy on Fox Sports radio proclaiming the same thing. He's predicting a Patriots loss that finishes them forever.

Morons, all of them.

I really want a Seahawks/Broncos type of annihilation of the Eagles tomorrow. No mercy.

Bury that entire garbage fanbase and all the idiot talking media heads.

 

[PhillySteaks]

gambling on who wins a football game doesn't make you an "expert"

granted neither does being a talking head..

I have more respect for people who put their hard earned cash on the line.

Gambling? Sportsbetting, EV machines with proper strategy, 21, poker and paigow are beatable games

Gambling is roulette , slot machines, and most table games

As a big fan of "gambling" and having lived and visited Vegas alot, I'm pretty much a fan of games of chance

My only pt was that there are differences in certain "gambling " endeavors ..

 

[Vatahala]

Some of the ESPN picks are borderline mental.

I get that Mike Golic is a former Eagle, so picking Philly is whatever, but 31-10?

So not only are the Eagles going to win, they’re going to anihialte Brady and Belichick, hold them to 10 points and Nick Foles is going to hang 31 on a D that’s right at your own team’s level?

My god, get this man some Lexapro.

On the other hand Mike Golic Jr. also employed by ESPN has the Pats winning 27-21.

 

[upstater1]

"Experts"?LOL

The real experts are people betting ..putting their money where their big mouths are..

The rest are blowhards who like to listen to themselves

Given all the people putting money down on the Eagles, I expect the casinos will all be going out of business.

 

[obgod3]

Well it wont be good for the casinos if the Pats beat the spread that’s for sure.

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

Colin Cowherd makes it clear that the Patriots both will and won't win the SB.

January 3rd:

January 10th
"When the Patriots lose - and they are going to - there just not good enough to win a Super Bowl, they're just not. There's just not good enough defensively, they have no pass rush, the receivers are hot and cold, Gronk can get hurt, they're NOT going to win the Super Bowl. The Patriots are NOT going to win the Super Bowl. They simply do not have a pass rush when they lost Donte Hightower, they don't make other quarterbacks uncomfortable, even though the AFC's never been this weak - and I'm a Patriot homer, right? - they're not winning the Super Bowl. They're not. They might get to it, they're not winning it"

February 2nd

 

[upstater1]

It shouldn’t be an argument because as I showed it’s meaningless.
They gave fewer possessions BECAUSE OF the defense. The numbers clearly showed that. Clearly.

So your argument is that a defense that forces the opponent to take up more time so they have fewer possessions is worse than a defense that allows more possessions? That makes no sense at all.

It's not only possessions. Barnwell analyzed how far the offense gets which puts the opposing O in bad field position. The Patriots offense excels there. Again, it's undeniable that the Patriots offense calls more plays, uses more clock, drives down the field, and pushes the opposing O into bad field position. The defense is greatly aided by this offense.

 

[PhillySteaks]

Given all the people putting money down on the Eagles, I expect the casinos will all be going out of business.

LOL ... city was built on those kinda bets..

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Why was Blount allowed to walk?

The Patriots have Lewis, Burkhead, White & Gill. It is quite possibly the best RB group in the BB era. Fyi, given Blount's one dimension it is quite possible he would have been inactive on multiple weeks.

Good players leave, good players arrive, welcome to NFL football.

 

[upstater1]

LOL ... city was built on those kinda bets..

Yes, I was being sarcastic.

 

[Ring 6]

It's not only possessions. Barnwell analyzed how far the offense gets which puts the opposing O in bad field position. The Patriots offense excels there. Again, it's undeniable that the Patriots offense calls more plays, uses more clock, drives down the field, and pushes the opposing O into bad field position. The defense is greatly aided by this offense.

And all of those things are influenced by both the offense and the defense.
But the realmpoint here is the patriot defense has the patriot offense so why do we care to guess at what they would do with a different offense, situation and gane plan which will never occur?

 

[fnordcircle]

I put $1k on the Pats -4 (bought half a point).

Please Tom Brady, buy me some hookers.

 

[Joker]

and blow!

 

[upstater1]

And all of those things are influenced by both the offense and the defense.
But the realmpoint here is the patriot defense has the patriot offense so why do we care to guess at what they would do with a different offense, situation and gane plan which will never occur?

Because the D isn't good enough to compensate when the O runs into a bad sequence or series. That's why. This team has been an offensive dominated team since 2005. As the offense goes, so goes the team. It's been this way. But this year the imbalance is even worse between the two sides of the ball. That Jax team that struggled mightily with a weak Bills team at home the prior week faced much less resistance against our D.

 

[Ring 6]

Because the D isn't good enough to compensate when the O runs into a bad sequence or series. That's why. This team has been an offensive dominated team since 2005. As the offense goes, so goes the team. It's been this way. But this year the imbalance is even worse between the two sides of the ball. That Jax team that struggled mightily with a weak Bills team at home the prior week faced much less resistance against our D.

You are just wrong on this.
We were the #1 defense in the NFL last year and #1 after week 4 this year. Those are the facts.

Your silly analysis of drives ignores that we allowed the 6th fewest points per drive.

It’s like you are looking at numbers and not understanding what they mean.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

It's not only possessions. Barnwell analyzed how far the offense gets which puts the opposing O in bad field position. The Patriots offense excels there. Again, it's undeniable that the Patriots offense calls more plays, uses more clock, drives down the field, and pushes the opposing O into bad field position. The defense is greatly aided by this offense.

The other side of that is the the Eagles offense was quite good, so their ranking may not reflect a defense as dominant as it may initially appear.

 

[upstater1]

You are just wrong on this.
We were the #1 defense in the NFL last year and #1 after week 4 this year. Those are the facts.

Your silly analysis of drives ignores that we allowed the 6th fewest points per drive.

It’s like you are looking at numbers and not understanding what they mean.

All I said is I agree with Barnwell's analysis. He's a lot more right than you are. Maybe you think he's silly, but he's the one being paid, not you.

His whole point is that poor field position and fewer drives yields fewer points. I agree with him. The pts. per drive # for the Patriots is great, but it doesn't go against what Barnwell is saying, that the Patriots O puts the D in that position. Poor field position yields fewer points per drive.

I don't know why you keep ignoring this, probably to aggrandize yourself by calling Barnwell's analysis silly.

New England by the way is #1 in offense yards per drive, #1 in offense points per drive, #1 in drive success rate, this despite the fact that the defense is #32 in defense yards per drive, and #23 in defense drive success rate.

When you look at all those stats together (offense #1, #1, #1 and defense #32, #6, #23), it's easy to see the huge impact this offense is having on the defense's success.

As for last year's defense, this year's is not the same. I'd rather have last year's Logan Ryan and last year's Malcolm Butler over this year's Gilmore and Butler. Chris Long and Jabal Sheard were probably equivalent to Wise this year, but Branch and Valentine were better than Guy and Jean-Francois. I'd take Hightower, Ninkovich and McLellin over Van Noy and Roberts. The D was better last year.

 

[upstater1]

The other side of that is the the Eagles offense was quite good, so their ranking may not reflect a defense as dominant as it may initially appear.

Agree. At least while Carson Wentz was still back there.

Philly's finished offense yards per drive 11th, points per drive 4th, drive success rate 7th, while the defense was 5th, 4th, 5th.

The Philly D is not as good as the Jax D. Jax's offense was mediocre, middle of the league, but their defense was #1 all around.

 

[Deus Irae]

Because the D isn't good enough to compensate when the O runs into a bad sequence or series. That's why. This team has been an offensive dominated team since 2005. As the offense goes, so goes the team. It's been this way. But this year the imbalance is even worse between the two sides of the ball. That Jax team that struggled mightily with a weak Bills team at home the prior week faced much less resistance against our D.

There's nothing problematic about your take, at least at the general level. The questions about the defense are legit, and we've seen this pattern repeat often enough in the playoffs that it's worth noting. Whether or not it's a problem is the most likely key to the game, assuming unforced turnovers don't enter into it.

 

[Ring 6]

All I said is I agree with Barnwell's analysis. He's a lot more right than you are. Maybe you think he's silly, but he's the one being paid, not you.

His whole point is that poor field position and fewer drives yields fewer points. I agree with him. The pts. per drive # for the Patriots is great, but it doesn't go against what Barnwell is saying, that the Patriots O puts the D in that position. Poor field position yields fewer points per drive.

I don't know why you keep ignoring this, probably to aggrandize yourself by calling Barnwell's analysis silly.

New England by the way is #1 in offense yards per drive, #1 in offense points per drive, #1 in drive success rate, this despite the fact that the defense is #32 in defense yards per drive, and #23 in defense drive success rate.

When you look at all those stats together (offense #1, #1, #1 and defense #32, #6, #23), it's easy to see the huge impact this offense is having on the defense's success.

As for last year's defense, this year's is not the same. I'd rather have last year's Logan Ryan and last year's Malcolm Butler over this year's Gilmore and Butler. Chris Long and Jabal Sheard were probably equivalent to Wise this year, but Branch and Valentine were better than Guy and Jean-Francois. I'd take Hightower, Ninkovich and McLellin over Van Noy and Roberts. The D was better last year.

It’s a silly analysis. Sorry.