Idle thoughts - the "3rd and 18" edition

[Sfpat]

I think that was Nantz.

You mean J'ville's head cheerleader

 

[Ring 6]

Interesting analysis (Twitter thread) here from Warren Sharp of the Jags' play-calling and clock-management in Q4 vis-a-vis his own analysis of their 2016 season. Also touches on the Pats using 11 personnel.

He is wrong about 11 personell. The patriots chose to do that, not were forced to. Before Gronk went out and after Gronk went out they played 11 personell consistently.

I didn’t realize the “stats” people were using to make the argument about not using our 11 personell was just from some jag fan on twitter, which explains why no details were ever forthcoming.

 

[pheenix11]

Rex Burkhead is made of Glass. As great as he's looked everytime he gets tackled he comes up injured. Please Activate Gilly next game BB. I would not extend Burkhead either he spends too much time in the tub.

Especially after hearing that it was him who hit Brady in practice and the fact that he’s never available is causing me to quickly sour on this guy. Not a huge fan.

 

[jah]

Especially after hearing that it was him who hit Brady in practice and the fact that he’s never available is causing me to quickly sour on this guy. Not a huge fan.

That seems a little extreme but I will say I've never seen any one skill of his that makes me drool, yet every other post here (before his injury) was about how he's an unstoppable weapon who gives DCs nightmares. As far as I can tell, he's a well-rounded rotational back who isn't great or terrible at any one thing.

 

[maineman209]

I'm guessing that folks will be hypercritical of the right side of the OL (where Fowler does his business as a sub-rusher). However, the context was this:
... the Pats most typically work out of 12 personnel (with 2 TE) or 21 personnel (with Develin in for 20-25 snaps), both of which either allow for an extra inline or backfield blocker/pass-protector
... for this game, the Pats were in 11 personnel most of the way - Allen played only one snap while Gronk was still available (they ran only the one play out of a 2 TE set), and Develin only played 15 snaps. IOW, the 5 OL were "naked" in this game far more often than usual - against a defense that typically racked up nearly 4 sacks per game all season.

Fowler had 2 sacks (he had 8 on the season) and Dareus had one. Campbell, Jackson and Ngakoue - who accounted for 35 of "Sacksonville's" 55 sacks - barely got a whiff.

I'm doubtful that even a healthy Waddle would've done significantly better with such little TE help.



NOTE: Click on the Tweet for the rest of Howe's stat-thread.

 

[JMC00]

Yeah.. I'm not buying that stat.

The official line has the Pats with 39 pass attempts, 16 run attempts and 3 kneel downs. The Patriots ran 29 offensive plays in the 1st half and 31 offensive plays in the 2nd half, not including the 3 kneel downs or the penalties. So, I have no earthly idea where the 42/22 that @UptownPatsFan posted came from.

And I have no idea what ProFootballFocus was watching because Brady was hit more than twice and pressured more than twice.
Patriots-Jaguars Takeaways: Defensive Game Plan Took Time To Succeed

They are getting the 61 plays from

42 dropbacks (39 attempts, 3 sacks)
16 rushes
3 kneel downs

61 plays is how many plays the Pats ran on offense

And the link you just posted backs up what PFF had.

PASS PROTECTION
RG Shaq Mason: sack, QB hit, two hurries allowed
RT Cameron Fleming: sack, one hurry
LT Nate Solder: one QB hit
LG Joe Thuney: one hurry

Kyed has it as 8 pressures given up by the OL. (2 sacks, 4 hurries 2 QB hits)
The 9th pressure would be the 3rd sack allowed which apparently Kyed isn't putting on anyone.

 

[sean10mm]

He is wrong about 11 personell. The patriots chose to do that, not were forced to. Before Gronk went out and after Gronk went out they played 11 personell consistently.

It was an interesting choice, since the metrics said the Jags D's (relative) vulnerability was against RB and TE heavy sets, and the Pats avoided that almost entirely. Of course the Pats knew that the Jags knew that, etc., etc.

 

[Ring 6]

It was an interesting choice, since the metrics said the Jags D's (relative) vulnerability was against RB and TE heavy sets, and the Pats avoided that almost entirely. Of course the Pats knew that the Jags knew that, etc., etc.

I’m just not convinced about the stats people are using to draw that conclusion.
They were murky stats with no context or depth that came from some guy who is a jags fan.
I’m skeptical that they mean what they are purported to and also skeptical that they are accurate.

 

[rochrist]

Rex Burkhead is made of Glass. As great as he's looked everytime he gets tackled he comes up injured. Please Activate Gilly next game BB. I would not extend Burkhead either he spends too much time in the tub.

Never learned anything from JE or Amendola huh?