Cian Fahey on Tom Brady (2)

[supafly]

you are the only person I have heard even suggest Antonio Brown.

Then maybe you should turn on the TV, browse another site, or pick up a newspaper. I won’t act like a jerk and link 10 different sites, but here are the latest from USA Today, ESPN, and NFL Network.

5 reasons Antonio Brown is the NFL MVP over Tom Brady

Antonio Brown heats up MVP case with each torched secondary

Can Antonio Brown be the first wide receiver MVP?

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Oh wow! This thread...

 

[FCB02062]

Who the **** is cian fahey and why should we give a F about his opinion?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

This is a follow up to the thread started on June 1, 2017 here: Cian Fahey on Tom Brady . That thread noted that Cian Fahey (Pre-Snap Reads QuarterBack Catalogue 2017) had claimed that Brady threw more interceptable passes late in the 2016 season.

That analysis is one reason I've been advocating not forcing Brady to play full 16 or 19 game season but rather to replicate the successful 2016 schedule and rest him. I initially advocated that Brady be rested the first 4-6 games of 2017, and as the season trudged on I've continually advocated resting him.

Neither Fahey's analysis nor my recommendations were greeted with enthusiasm. Responses were: that my suggestion to preserve Brady's health must have come from a Steeler's plant; that Fahey was a fraud; that Brady's recent interceptions didn't count because they were not his fault (seriously); and so on. There was no, or virtually no, serious analysis.

In view of the recent games and the increased interception rate, I think Fahey's analysis deserves a reevaluation, even among skeptics who appear to believe that Brady is so talented that he would not benefit from rest. This late in the season it might be too late to rest Brady, but it's still something that should be considered. More important, it should be re-asked why the abundantly obvious fact that base rate of performance for 40 year old quarterbacks should override, from a Bayesian point of view, a small sample size and that Brady ought to have been rested to start this season. All the more so because Garoppolo, based on his SF performance, would clearly have been able to spell Brady.

I always appreciate a well thought out analysis. Even if it were true, though, it misses the human side of football. I don’t think Belichick would ever consider this strategy due to the very real locker room and importance of continuity/leadership at the QB position. He has been through two very bitter quarterback controversies, and I don’t think he wants another. One reason he may have traded Garoppolo now was to avoid a huge distraction this offseason.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Tom Brady should be a strong candidate for the MVP award. That is certainly true. On the other hand one would have to be tone deaf to not realize that Tom and the Patriots are hated by a large percentage of people across the country. There is a fatigue factor that comes with winning so much so often. There was a time (before out team became so successful) that most of us were sick of the 49ers dynasty or sick of the Cowboys dynasty or sick of the Bills (*almost*) dynasty...

 

[TB_Helmet]

Please don't bring Bayes into this, his head would explode if he saw the reasoning you used in the OP.

 

[supafly]

Tom Brady should be a strong candidate for the MVP award. That is certainly true. On the other hand one would have to be tone deaf to not realize that Tom and the Patriots are hated by a large percentage of people across the country. There is a fatigue factor that comes with winning so much so often. There was a time (before out team became so successful) that most of us were sick of the 49ers dynasty or sick of the Cowboys dynasty or sick of the Bills (*almost*) dynasty...

He’s only won it twice, so it would appear as though the voters prefer to give it to just about any alternative they can find.

Combine that with 2 mediocre-to-poor performances along with Brown absolutely going off like a madman over the last 4 games (40 catches/600 yds/6 TDs), and it isn’t difficult to see how the “consensus” (clear cut or otherwise ) may have dwindled a bit, making the race closer with a big showdown approaching on Sunday.

 

[Tony2046]

Who's Cian Fahey?

I don't know either but he sounds like he was dangerously close to being named Aqua.

 

[supafly]

Brady is a bit hobbled and hasn’t had a great couple of games, but prior to that he was pretty much the consensus MVP.

Also, prior to that he had thrown 2 INTs all season.

Still is consensus mvp.

Antonio Brown has come on strong the past couple of games whereas Tom has regressed. Brown is the new media favorite.

At any rate, Brady is certainly no longer the “consensus” MVP. He’s obviously still one of the favorites, but needs to have a couple of nice games to earn that distinction again.

Do you also not understand what consensus means? It means he is the favorite,which he is.
Everyone has to have 3 more games before they win an award when they have played 13 of 16.

Brady at this point is damn near unanimous.

I mean, this is just such a prime example of how you act like an arrogant **** for no reason, whatsoever. What the hell is your deal, in general?

This is the exact exchange between us, quote by quote, in order, including your attempt to “teach me” and show me my faults where I did nothing wrong and said nothing even remotely controversial. As a matter of fact, you are the one who is incorrect by stating that no one is discussing Brown and that it would pretty much be unanimous.

Your finger wagging and soap box routine have grown old. You’ve been wrong so many times that you don’t have the luxury of pretending to be the forum expert on much of anything. Go and talk down to someone else. Your disrespect is unreal.

 

[supafly]

Are you suggesting that fans here are tougher on Brady's MVP chances than the actual voters will be?

Yes by far.

That’s not even close to being true. At any given time here, you’d likely have about 80-90 percent of the forum award Brady the MVP.

It’s the voters who have only chosen to give Brady the MVP twice and Belichick the coach of the year once, despite the fact that they’ve basically owned the entire league for 15+ years.

We’re certainly not harder on him than the voters of the award are. With all respect, that statement doesn’t even really make sense.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Fahey is wrong

Dude, you really need an expert opinion on this matter, so I reached out to one.




Just don't ask her about her biological clock.

 

[captain stone]

Who the **** is cian fahey and why should we give a F about his opinion?

Because he's a 40-year-old QB whose most recent game was garbage?

 

[captain stone]

Dude, you really need an expert opinion on this matter, so I reached out to one.




Just don't ask her about her biological clock.

Biological clock be damned, I'd still gladly bang her today.

 

[Ring 6]

I mean, this is just such a prime example of how you act like an arrogant **** for no reason, whatsoever. What the hell is your deal, in general?

For no reason? You STILL haven’t admitted you lied when you said multiple times that I said Floyd MASTERED THR OFFENSE and instead of just accepting that you misunderstood consensus you decided to arguebin vain and ultimately change your argument to “clear cut consensus”. You get responded to like that because of your own attitude.

This is the exact exchange between us, quote by quote, in order, including your attempt to “teach me” and show me my faults where I did nothing wrong and said nothing even remotely controversial. As a matter of fact, you are the one who is incorrect by stating that no one is discussing Brown and that it would pretty much be unanimous.

It would be pretty much unanimous but that isn’t what we were talking about. Brady is the favorite. You decided to turn this into what it became because you didn’t understand the meaning of a word and decided to make not admitting that your place to dig your heels on the sand.

Your finger wagging and soap box routine have grown old. You’ve been wrong so many times that you don’t have the luxury of pretending to be the forum expert on much of anything. Go and talk down to someone else. Your disrespect is unreal.

Yes I certainly disrespect you.
Let’s recap. You lied about what I said and still after I pointed it out many times won’t admit it.
You made a stupid argument about the incorrect definition of a word when instead you could have accepted you were wrong and talked about football. The fact that you changed your argument to clear cut consensus shows you know you were wrong but insisted on pretending you weren’t.
Of course I disrespect you, because you earn it. I’m glad you finally realize why this turned into a **** show.

And this was all after you tried to argue that your opinion that someone sucked was a fact. You couldn’t admit either that an opinion is not a fact you just kept coming back with more ridiculous explanation and incorrect information. You know you are wrong yet turn the exchange into a shot show because you are incapable of admitting that. This could have been about football but you insist on it being about covering up your errors, which you suck at. So yes you should be feeling disrespect.

 

[Ring 6]

That’s not even close to being true. At any given time here, you’d likely have about 80-90 percent of the forum award Brady the MVP.

Read the board. People here are downgrading Brady over one game far more than voters will. Hell people here are calling it 2 games and including a 23-3 road division win when he was 21-30-258 as a reason he won’t be the mvp.

It’s the voters who have only chosen to give Brady the MVP twice and Belichick the coach of the year once, despite the fact that they’ve basically owned the entire league for 15+ years.

We’re certainly not harder on him than the voters of the award are. With all respect, that statement doesn’t even really make sense.

What does any of that have to do with what is happening as a result of Monday?
Once again you don’t understand what people are talking about and argue a straw man. You are Mr Strawman.

 

[Ring 6]

Tom Brady should be a strong candidate for the MVP award. That is certainly true. On the other hand one would have to be tone deaf to not realize that Tom and the Patriots are hated by a large percentage of people across the country. There is a fatigue factor that comes with winning so much so often. There was a time (before out team became so successful) that most of us were sick of the 49ers dynasty or sick of the Cowboys dynasty or sick of the Bills (*almost*) dynasty...

Mvp voters have never exhibited this.
They certainly have exhibited an over reliance on stats but Brady is the best stat-wise as well this year.
It’s not a fan vote.

 

[primetime]

Please don't bring Bayes into this, his head would explode if he saw the reasoning you used in the OP.

I'm a social scientist and statistician and read "Bayesian" and just went "bwuhh?"

Here's a more applicable inference based on Bayes' theorem: Brady had an exceptional season up to Monday night. Sometimes, have quarterbacks have bad games. Brady has, historically, played worse in Miami than anywhere else.

Ergo, the likelihood is that Brady simply had an outlier bad game. It is possible, even probable, that he will have another bad game this season, but the majority of games are likely to be good.

This, of course, changes if his bad performance was due to a confound, such as a lingering injury that will not get better in short order, and that is certainly possible given his lack of practice last week. However, he had the Achilles injury prior to the Bills game and looked very good (despite the statline) in that game compared to Monday night.

 

[50-yard-line]

Okay, I'm a heretic, too, then.

I would love to see the Pats protect their playoff assets (and develop the underneath assets) a lot more than they do. I don't need to see Gronk blocking on extra points, for example.

Sop many times in the recent past, I've just shaken my head to see Brady throwing to Jules or Gronk when the game is effectively over. I would have rather seen Garoppolo throwing, or Brady throwing to Allen and Dorsett...or anyone else with whom he hasn't yet developed necessary chemistry.

That said, the biggest problem Brady's had in the last three games is simple: Division opponents, and one, Miami, against whom we don't match up very well. The interior of the Dolphin line is about as tough up the middle as any team in the league, and Cam Wake is always tough for the Pats. Throw in the hobbled Hogan, the absent Gronk, in the last game, and, well, Brady is 7-9 in Miami for a reason.

And Brady didn't have a bad game at all in Buffalo. They just didn't need him to light it up. They ground the Bills into dust in a game that was never in question. That's what a good QB and MVP does: leads the team to WIN, not to pad stats.

Pitch count (pass count) matters, both in a game and over a season.

Besides, from a strictly fan perspective, I'd have rather watched Garoppolo and the #4 and 5 WRs at the end of games that were already won, just because I wouldn't be holding my breath waiting for an ACL tear on every play!

 

[primetime]

And Brady didn't have a bad game at all in Buffalo. They just didn't need him to light it up. They ground the Bills into dust in a game that was never in question. That's what a good QB and MVP does: leads the team to WIN, not to pad stats.

It was his fourth best game this year in terms of yards per attempt, and he completed 70% of his passes. And unlike the two on Monday, the interception wasn't his fault at all. As you noted, touchdowns are important, but it matters less how you get them than how many you score. He had arguably a better game against the Bills than he did the week before against the Dolphins, but the 4 TDs to 0 loom big in people's minds.

 

[Ring 6]

Then maybe you should turn on the TV, browse another site, or pick up a newspaper. I won’t act like a jerk and link 10 different sites, but here are the latest from USA Today, ESPN, and NFL Network.

5 reasons Antonio Brown is the NFL MVP over Tom Brady

Antonio Brown heats up MVP case with each torched secondary

Can Antonio Brown be the first wide receiver MVP?

3 articles written the day I made the statement. I guess my crime is having a job so that I am not up to the minute on media speculation.