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Opportunity for Gillislee?

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RobertWeathers

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I know the guy hasn't played but I'm wondering with Ebner's injury he might get an opportunity to suit up on game day.

Potential Reasons:
  • He played a decent amount of STs in BUF and MIA. Clearly he hasn't been good enough to crack the units here but maybe he can now.
  • In his last 6 games, Lewis is averaging 15.6 "touches" a game. If he maintains his current pace, that'll put him at 172 touches for the year- a career high. Football players need to play but that concerns me a little which brings me to...
  • Increased workload for Burkhead. Over the last 4 games hes been averaging 28 snaps on O and about 11 on STs. I'm not sure if they want to use him more on STs to offset Ebner's loss (who averages about 20 ST snaps a game as hes "core"). Personally, I'd rather see Burk more on O which leads me to think....
  • They MIGHT give Gillislee a look on STs this week and a few carries here and there to give Dion and Burk a breather.
I read a stat which said Gillislee faced more 8 man fronts than any RB is football. Maybe Josh thought about how to loosen that up a little so he has a better chance of being successful.

Thoughts?
 
ST took a big hit with Ebner to IR......Is Slater ready to come off bench yet? Makes sense to get Gill off the bench......Bennett to IR opens another spot on 53 man roster? Have any moves been announced yet to fill Ebner & Bennett's spots?
 
ST took a big hit with Ebner to IR......Is Slater ready to come off bench yet? Makes sense to get Gill off the bench......Bennett to IR opens another spot on 53 man roster? Have any moves been announced yet to fill Ebner & Bennett's spots?
They signed an LB off the Ravens PS .
 
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They signed an LB off the Ravens PS and I expect Grissom to be called up for STs but not yet confirmed. They re-signed an OG but has not been reported whether to roster or PS.
What linebacker off the Ravens practice squad?
 
All well and good...



Just don't let the man return kicks.
 
Mike is obviously #4 on the rb depth chart, with Dion clearly our #1.
But I've learned never to count anyone out with BB. I think for a lot of reasons already covered by the op and others, Gillislee will get some reps.
I think his status is just due to the other 3 playing better and also being factors in the passing game, not poor play by him.
Lewis has actually been a better power runner.
It's a nice problem to have.
 
Just for the record, Gillislee played 164 ST snaps for BUF in 2016 ... roughly 11/game active out of roughly 22 available snaps/game = probably 2 units of the main 4.

Prior to 2016, Gillislee had played a combined total of 44 ST snaps with MIA in 2013 and BUF in 2015 (Gillislee spent 2014 on IR with the 'Fins, and the first part of 2015 on the ARZ practice squad before being poached by the Bills).
 
Nicholas Grigsby. See:

We're on to Buffalo

Grigs had plenty of ST snaps in 2016 (looks like well over a 100). No standout stat for his STs play and not a single career defensive snap. The good news is he has been actively practicing with a team (roster or PS) since his drafting last year (no big gap in his NFL training).
It appears we need ST help (some of our best are/may be out) so expect Grigs to be on some STs packages. What will be interesting is to see if Grigs shockingly gets his first defensive snap of his young career (urgh, not because of injury!!! instead because BB/MP sees something). Bottom line is this guy is a complete unknown from a 'what will happen on a defensive down'. He likely will be a tangible liability but that as a factual matter is an unknown. It would be powerball lucky if he tangibly outperforms what would be minuscule expectations and actually plays like he belongs out there on a defensive snap.
 
its destiny, gillislee will be our best runner in the post season lol
 
Just for the record, Gillislee played 164 ST snaps for BUF in 2016 ... roughly 11/game active out of roughly 22 available snaps/game = probably 2 units of the main 4.

Prior to 2016, Gillislee had played a combined total of 44 ST snaps with MIA in 2013 and BUF in 2015 (Gillislee spent 2014 on IR with the 'Fins, and the first part of 2015 on the ARZ practice squad before being poached by the Bills).

That's good info MM, I had assumed he was not a ST contributor and therefore his chance at being active without an injury was getting smaller and smaller.

BB and staff's active list is sometimes a bit mysterious (because obviously I know better than BB and staff ). But if Gill can play STs, we're playing against a poor run D, Gill playing against his old team -- yet he is still inactive??? Gill is pretty much in the Patriots's depth chart version of Siberia. And short of injury at RB that would open up a semi-desperate need at that spot (assuming BB/MP haven't soured so completely on Gill and instead turn to Bolden), his career with the Patriots appears over.

Gill has not been a fail but being the one trick pony skillset that he has provided the Patriots, his performance has been a day old ham sandwich (3.7 YPC -- close to 4 after the bad first 2 games, surest 3 yards as of his inactivation) instead of the expected ribeye (4.4, short yardage machine). So if Gill is activated and gets some touches he has got! to be that ribeye and make BB/MP see what he is capable of doing. Run with abandon, make 2 Bills needed every time to take him down, make a couple of Bills get up a little slow after Gill comes crashing through.
IF! this is Gill's first activation in a month, Gill you gotta make this one your best game as a Patriot.
 
That's good info MM, I had assumed he was not a ST contributor and therefore his chance at being active without an injury was getting smaller and smaller.

BB and staff's active list is sometimes a bit mysterious (because obviously I know better than BB and staff ). But if Gill can play STs, we're playing against a poor run D, Gill playing against his old team -- yet he is still inactive??? Gill is pretty much in the Patriots's depth chart version of Siberia. And short of injury at RB that would open up a semi-desperate need at that spot (assuming BB/MP haven't soured so completely on Gill and instead turn to Bolden), his career with the Patriots appears over.

Gill has not been a fail but being the one trick pony skillset that he has provided the Patriots, his performance has been a day old ham sandwich (3.7 YPC -- close to 4 after the bad first 2 games, surest 3 yards as of his inactivation) instead of the expected ribeye (4.4, short yardage machine). So if Gill is activated and gets some touches he has got! to be that ribeye and make BB/MP see what he is capable of doing. Run with abandon, make 2 Bills needed every time to take him down, make a couple of Bills get up a little slow after Gill comes crashing through.
IF! this is Gill's first activation in a month, Gill you gotta make this one your best game as a Patriot.

Before the season, I was among those who expected Gillislee to be the Pats "lead runner", although probably in a more nominal sense than most, since he'd never previously handled that many snaps and hadn't shown anywhere near the receiving skills that White, Lewis and Burkhead had. Still, I projected him to finish with 40%-45% of about 400-425 RB-carries, with White kicking in about 10% and Burkhead-Lewis splitting the remaining 45%-50% (with Burkhead being emphasized more as a runner and Lewis being emphasized more as a passing target).

It's pretty clear (now) that Gillislee's skill set isn't sufficiently diverse. While he's been more than adequate (IMHO) as a runner, his ability to contribute in the passing game (route-running and pass-pro) has apparently just not been sufficiently competitive with White, Lewis and Burkhead so far. It's equally apparent that he doesn't have much to contribute on ST compared to the other players who are getting ST snaps (Gillislee has 0 ST snaps so far).

OTOH, in retrospect, he was very useful in the earlier part of the season while Lewis was still working on getting his mojo back to 100%.

Even during the fist two weeks of Burkhead's injury absence (wk-3 & wk-4), Lewis' tote-count didn't increase, and neither did Gillislee's or White's. The offense simply ran the ball fewer times.

In wk-6 (Jets, with Burkhead still out), Lewis hit double-digit totes for the first time (he's been in double-digits every game since) and also surpassed Gillislee's tote-count for the first time. In wk-7 & wk-8, Lewis' totes increased a bit while Gillislee's declined a bit and, with Burkhead back, White's total touches (totes + tgts) began to decline.

Since they BYE, along with the injury-induced changes to the OL and Hogan being out, Gillislee has been a healthy scratch, White's total touches and snap counts have been down (though his totes have seen a slight uptick), and the ground game has basically been the Lewis & Burkhead show - with Burkhead, rather than Lewis, seemingly taking tgts from White. It seems a bit odd to me, btw, that Lewis hasn't gotten more tgts. Before his injury in 2015, Lewis' totes-tgts ratio was 1:1. Since his "breakout" in wk-6 this season, the ratio has been about 9 totes/tgt.

So, a Lewis-Burkhead ground-game pattern has emerged the past three games (with Gillislee on the bench and White being de-emphasized), and it's been very successful. However, I'm doubtful that it's permanent. Things may change "organically" once Andrews, Cannon and Hogan are back, but I think that McD may also deliberately throw a change-up soon (possibly waiting for the Steelers) since, successful or not, the Lewis-Burkhead Show has also become a "tendency" that defenses can key on.

Anyway, I'm doubtful that Gillislee's "benching" is due to below average production, at least not exclusively. I think it's partly roster management through injuries, and partly "going with the hot hand(s)". I think it's very likely that we'll see Gillislee back on the field (perhaps even a more productive version) sometime between now and the playoffs.
 
Before the season, I was among those who expected Gillislee to be the Pats "lead runner", although probably in a more nominal sense than most, since he'd never previously handled that many snaps and hadn't shown anywhere near the receiving skills that White, Lewis and Burkhead had. Still, I projected him to finish with 40%-45% of about 400-425 RB-carries, with White kicking in about 10% and Burkhead-Lewis splitting the remaining 45%-50% (with Burkhead being emphasized more as a runner and Lewis being emphasized more as a passing target).

It's pretty clear (now) that Gillislee's skill set isn't sufficiently diverse. While he's been more than adequate (IMHO) as a runner, his ability to contribute in the passing game (route-running and pass-pro) has apparently just not been sufficiently competitive with White, Lewis and Burkhead so far. It's equally apparent that he doesn't have much to contribute on ST compared to the other players who are getting ST snaps (Gillislee has 0 ST snaps so far).

OTOH, in retrospect, he was very useful in the earlier part of the season while Lewis was still working on getting his mojo back to 100%.

Even during the fist two weeks of Burkhead's injury absence (wk-3 & wk-4), Lewis' tote-count didn't increase, and neither did Gillislee's or White's. The offense simply ran the ball fewer times.

In wk-6 (Jets, with Burkhead still out), Lewis hit double-digit totes for the first time (he's been in double-digits every game since) and also surpassed Gillislee's tote-count for the first time. In wk-7 & wk-8, Lewis' totes increased a bit while Gillislee's declined a bit and, with Burkhead back, White's total touches (totes + tgts) began to decline.

Since they BYE, along with the injury-induced changes to the OL and Hogan being out, Gillislee has been a healthy scratch, White's total touches and snap counts have been down (though his totes have seen a slight uptick), and the ground game has basically been the Lewis & Burkhead show - with Burkhead, rather than Lewis, seemingly taking tgts from White. It seems a bit odd to me, btw, that Lewis hasn't gotten more tgts. Before his injury in 2015, Lewis' totes-tgts ratio was 1:1. Since his "breakout" in wk-6 this season, the ratio has been about 9 totes/tgt.

So, a Lewis-Burkhead ground-game pattern has emerged the past three games (with Gillislee on the bench and White being de-emphasized), and it's been very successful. However, I'm doubtful that it's permanent. Things may change "organically" once Andrews, Cannon and Hogan are back, but I think that McD may also deliberately throw a change-up soon (possibly waiting for the Steelers) since, successful or not, the Lewis-Burkhead Show has also become a "tendency" that defenses can key on.

Anyway, I'm doubtful that Gillislee's "benching" is due to below average production, at least not exclusively. I think it's partly roster management through injuries, and partly "going with the hot hand(s)". I think it's very likely that we'll see Gillislee back on the field (perhaps even a more productive version) sometime between now and the playoffs.
Good post.

Re:James White. That is a whole other discussion as he has been de-emphasized in this offense.

Before the bye he was averaging about 40ish snaps a game and now he's in the teens. Also his targets are a 1/4 of what they were.

I'm not sure it's a hot hand thing but rather McD wants more run/pass unpredictably in the offense.
 
I hope so, I want to limit lewis' reps. its not like Gillislee was running bad before he got benched. would be nice to rotate lewis/burkhead/gillislee running the ball throughout the game

It's not that he's running bad, it's just that he can't catch **** in the passing game so whenever he's in, other teams just stack the box every single time they see him, and he's just not good enough to overcome that.
 
Good post.

Re:James White. That is a whole other discussion as he has been de-emphasized in this offense.

Before the bye he was averaging about 40ish snaps a game and now he's in the teens. Also his targets are a 1/4 of what they were.

I'm not sure it's a hot hand thing but rather McD wants more run/pass unpredictably in the offense.

That was BB's stated goal last spring. Seems like they're on track.

All that's left is for Gillislee to return from his hiatus and immediately catch a couple short passes that he turns into 15-yd+ gains.

It's maybe Chip Kelly's 2-RB offense from 2014, but with the horses to actually make it work.
 
I think the loss of Bennett has more of an impact on Gillislee than the loss of Ebnar. Wouldn't shock me with with all of our injuries and with Bennett gone, if we see Gillislee this week in Buffalo.
 
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