varjao
Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
- Joined
- Aug 15, 2013
- Messages
- 7,109
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Sorry, I hate this comment. A lot of people say it. Unless BB has some time machine we don't know about, he is paying on past production. Or at least 90% past production, otherwise what are you basing your projected future production on? Players get injured, it is what it is. Hightower has powered through injuries on both Super Bowl runs and contributed immensely in both so BB was probably paying him with the thought that he could probably contribute immensely in a future Super Bowl.
Ok I think is all about semantics. Obviously BB pays partly based on what the player already delivered in the league and that works for a player already on the system or a free agent, but it's part of the equation, but he also pays on a projection like you said and I don't think it's just a 10% part. And what kind of information does he use in his model to get to a number and to make the call in spite of the risk that every big signing brings? Well, it has to be health, physical measurements, smarts, passion, will to do the dirty job and not the fancy things that go on the stat sheet, the technical part of football in playing that specific position and of course BB's immense football knowledge in putting all that together and coming to a conclusion. Still, you have the risk, you always have, you can't avoid the risk. And his model whatever it is has failed in the past. But usually it is a successful model.
Obviously with our own free agents he does have more information and still you can't avoid the risk. What the famous sentence "BB does not pay for past production" means is that he doesn't play one dime if he thinks the player is done or close to that, cruelty be damned. Or pay less willing to mitigate the risk in some gambles.
In Hightower's case whatever rationale BB used I bet my life he wasn't hopeful HT would become healthy eating avocados and playing every possible game during the life of the contract. HT's health was a big factor when he was a free agent gauging his market, but we had the money and HT is a playmaker, a proven one, it would be offensive to offer him 8Mi/year, sometimes GM's just have to go there and pay, we had that luxury but the possibility of him breaking down was not a remote one. So my point is, I'm not going to criticize the contract but I understand if someone feels that way.












