Faith based solid D prediction

[Mark.]

So I am Nostradumbass

Ha, disregard

I think your win in the predict the score contest last week may have gone to your head.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

I see a team that is 2-2.
I see SB winning talent. I see the GOAT QB and the GOAT coach.
I realize that football teams sometimes look bad and then get it fixed.
I realize that what I say is meaningless to what is going to happen.

I like this team and these players and I'm not going to run around crying like a little baby when they struggle and then act like I think they are the greatest and love them when they turn around and win.

If you want to write off this team go ahead. But don't come back revellibg in the success that you wrote off.

Andy, I like your faith. I gather we should remember the "on to Cinncinnati" moment after the Chiefs game a few years ago. Hoping for the best for Thursday night.

 

[Ring 6]

Andy, I like your faith. I gather we should remember the "on to Cinncinnati" moment after the Chiefs game a few years ago. Hoping for the best for Thursday night.

I mean had they stopped a couple of 3rd downs today and won 30-17 would anything really be different?
It's the NFL. Everyone can make plays. The difference in playing well and struggling isn't that wide a gap. The patriots are renowned for using the early season to build for later in the season so unless losses mount I'm not going to worry about what the unfinished product on the field looks like. Being a fan of this team the last 18 years tells me that is the right approach to take with this team even if freaking out in September would be wise for browns fans.

 

[Richard Camembert]

I thought they were in zone a ton. I guess this was in part because they had neutralized the run, in part because that’s how they play the running QB’s, and in part because of the short week and it’s a little easier to play zone. It felt like they then switched to man for the last couple drives to try to lock out the game, and it worked on the last drive, which would have been a three-and-out except for the ticky-tack flag on Gilmore (yes, he did go upside the WR’s head, but it was not material to the play). Now they will have a long week after Thursday, maybe they will get sorted after the Bucs. Cautiously optimistic even in the face of some piss-poor performance so far.

 

[Tony2046]

They stink! Why don't you at least admit that and quit seeing everything like the sky's blue!

"They stink " is a worthless generalization. It's basically a hawt take without any substance.

Those players are capable of being a very good defense. They have already shown that. They have yet to put together a complete game performance. If the defense had played marginally better this team would be 4-0. Do they need to improve? Absolutely. Do they have the players to put together a good defense? Absolutely. It's week 4.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

"They stink " is a worthless generalization. It's basically a hawt take without any substance.

Those players are capable of being a very good defense. They have already shown that. They have yet to put together a complete game performance. If the defense had played marginally better this team would be 4-0. Do they need to improve? Absolutely. Do they have the players to put together a good defense? Absolutely. It's week 4.

Idk. I haven't seen this type of secondary play since 2011 and 2012. Those years. Something's just not right with this defense. So much broken coverage. You need to start seeing some type of turnaround. Heading into their 5th game.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

"They stink " is a worthless generalization. It's basically a hawt take without any substance.

Those players are capable of being a very good defense. They have already shown that. They have yet to put together a complete game performance. If the defense had played marginally better this team would be 4-0. Do they need to improve? Absolutely. Do they have the players to put together a good defense? Absolutely. It's week 4.

I am looking at the big picture as well. Already 2 Ls. Both at home. If they keep racking Ls then trying to get one of those top seeds will just be out of reach. This team really needs to find itself quickly.

 

[Tony2046]

I am looking at the big picture as well. Already 2 Ls. Both at home. If they keep racking Ls then trying to get one of those top seeds will just be out of reach. This team really needs to find itself quickly.

Sure. But that's a long way off. Win the division is the first goal.

 

[mgteich]

Andy, I like your faith. I gather we should remember the "on to Cinncinnati" moment after the Chiefs game a few years ago. Hoping for the best for Thursday night.

Let's be serious for a moment.

1) We have the best offense in the NFL, led by the best QB in the NFL. The production from Dorsett and from the running backs will likely get better as they are comfortable with the system.

2) The secondary has been truly awful. They may take until the bye to be even close to average.

3) The defensive front line could very good as they get experience in the system. We've got lots of newcomers. We have Guy, Marsh and Butler on the DL.

4) The linebacker corps needs a healthy Hightower to have an OK unit. We should be OK with Hightower and Van Nay, with Roberts in the base (on running downs). Clearly, we could benefit from an addition here with little production expected from Langi, Harris, and Flowers. Of course, McClellan might contribute later in the season.

BOTTOM LINE
We might be 4-4 at the break, or one game either way. In any case, this team could easily go 7-1 with a much improved defense. We should make the playoffs at 10-6. We might even make it at 9-7. The goal, as always, is to be strong when playoff time come.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

We've missed the playoffs at 11-5, but your point's taken. One year's team, as this year's Pats are learning (early and perhaps a bit slowly) is not the next year's team.

This team was the best in the league, and on paper, got better. We all know about the injury bug, but at the end of the year you don't get anything for "best team with injuries." Nothing for it but the next game.

On to Tampa (and soon). We'll see. I'm not sure you back in with 7 losses, and it's possibly you don't get in with 6.

On the bright side, right the ship, GEL, etc., and thoughts of 6 or 7 losses might look pretty pessimistic in retrospect.

At the moment, however, they're an improvement on the .500 ball we're playing. So, back to September Pats vs. December Pats.

Right now they've got more talent than results. That's stating the obvious I guess. Where it goes from here is unwritten.

 

[DarrylS]

I mean had they stopped a couple of 3rd downs today and won 30-17 would anything really be different?
It's the NFL. Everyone can make plays. The difference in playing well and struggling isn't that wide a gap. The patriots are renowned for using the early season to build for later in the season so unless losses mount I'm not going to worry about what the unfinished product on the field looks like. Being a fan of this team the last 18 years tells me that is the right approach to take with this team even if freaking out in September would be wise for browns fans.

Throw in a few drive killing or drive extending ******** penalties like OPI's (Gronk and Amendola) and hands to the face by Gilmore and the outcome probably would have been different, Carolina had one penalty due to some great theatrics by Gronk..

Trey Flowers sack was negated by that BS penalty.. it all adds up.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

It does add up, but even if one postulates (as you do not here) a league-wide officiating conspiracy against NE, bad calls/non-calls are best thought of as an obstacle to overcome (although Andy’s earlier post puts my original “prediction” almost spot-on in wouldashouldacouldaball.)

A little worried that this group might not be much good by Thursday... that’s by this years standards.



On the bright side, I’m always wrong, so watch em pitch a shut out.

Eh well baseball fans are happy.

 

[primetime]

I mean, the defense has very little discontinuity in terms of personnel from last year's team. Hightower's been injured (but that was true last year), McClellin's on IR, and Ryan, Ninkovich, Long, and Sheard all left. But Wise has been a bright spot and Gilmore is at least in theory an upgrade over Ryan. So it's a question of why normally exceptional players like Butler and McCourty and stalwarts like Chung are playing like crap.

My guess is scheme. Last year the Patriots faced very few mobile quarterbacks. Tyrod Taylor and Russell Wilson were about it. And, hey, guess who the only two QBs to beat the 2016 Patriots were?

This year, through four games, the Patriots have faced three quarterbacks that can beat you with their legs in Smith, Watson, and Newton. Against all three they rushed contain and avoided blitzes. This gave these quarterbacks all day to throw, and they picked the Patriots apart because all three are talented passers in addition to being able to pull the ball down and gain yards with their feet.

Yesterday they allowed the absolutely putrid duo of Matt Kalil and Darryl Williams to look like Pro Bowlers because they didn't rush the quarterback. The Patriots finally let loose and brought some heat towards the end of the Panthers game and, well, it worked (they likely win if not for the Gilmore penalty, which was legitimate if ticky-tack). There were other problems, like miscommunication that left receivers wide open, but that wasn't all of it.

Also note how they had their best defensive day against Drew Brees, who's by far the most talented QB of that bunch. Most of the damage Brees did came when the game was no longer in doubt.

Patricia and Belichick are deathly afraid of mobile quarterbacks for whatever reason. They play them too conservatively, and that's been the case for a while. Maybe it's a complex after being embarrassed by the wildcat years ago. The good news is they only have three games against mobile quarterbacks left on their schedule (this week against the Bucs and two games against the Bills), and the offense is so dominant that they will still be favored.

The bad news is one of those games is this week. It makes me leery, because Winston is a quarterback who can pick defenses apart but is prone to boneheaded decisions under pressure. If they decline to bring that pressure, though, they're going to get beat. Taylor is a different case, since he's just not as talented a passer as any of the other mobile QBs they've faced thus far.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

shorten the game on offense - longer touch down drives, eat up clock and keep the defense off the field as much as possible, at least until the defense can get up to speed. Right now the pats are averaging 30 mins TOP, but it would help to bump that up to 35-40 mins. It’s clear we won’t win any shootouts.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

shorten the game on offense - longer touch down drives, eat up clock and keep the defense off the field as much as possible, at least until the defense can get up to speed. Right now the pats are averaging 30 mins TOP, but it would help to bump that up to 35-40 mins. It’s clear we won’t win any shootouts.

Run blocking might be a weakness to date of this o line. Even when TFB stays upright, the RBs have gotten poor production. Couple that with the loss of JE11 and it’s no mean feat to average 30 min. TOP.

I don’t have numbers now (on phone) but I’m thinking the backs, many of whom are the same as in 16, have declined (likely pointing to o line play)

That said I could not see full game this weekend, so no eye test here... more a vague memory of small holes and low numbers.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Patricia and Belichick are deathly afraid of mobile quarterbacks for whatever reason. They play them too conservatively, and that's been the case for a while. Maybe it's a complex after being embarrassed by the wildcat years ago. The good news is they only have three games against mobile quarterbacks left on their schedule (this week against the Bucs and two games against the Bills), and the offense is so dominant that they will still be favored.

The bad news is one of those games is this week. It makes me leery, because Winston is a quarterback who can pick defenses apart but is prone to boneheaded decisions under pressure. If they decline to bring that pressure, though, they're going to get beat. Taylor is a different case, since he's just not as talented a passer as any of the other mobile QBs they've faced thus far.

About being afraid of mobile QBs: some defenses are swarming, attacking defenses. The Pats build around the X big plays that dictate the outcome of each game. To date, as always. So, yes, conservative. This has always made fans’ heads explode, even in good years. Even more so, it makes peoples heads explode who follow yards not points. It’s not good to allow yards, but understandable if your trying to bend not break.

 

[Ring 6]

shorten the game on offense - longer touch down drives, eat up clock and keep the defense off the field as much as possible, at least until the defense can get up to speed. Right now the pats are averaging 30 mins TOP, but it would help to bump that up to 35-40 mins. It’s clear we won’t win any shootouts.

40 minutes top is a ridiculously ignorant goal.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

40 minutes top is a ridiculously ignorant goal.

But you have to admit having the ball twice as long as the other team would make life way easier

 

[Ring 6]

But you have to admit having the ball twice as long as the other team would make life way easier

Sure but it's virtually impossible and not something you can set as a goal, and of course the defense has to play great to do it.

 

[Ring 6]

I mean, the defense has very little discontinuity in terms of personnel from last year's team. Hightower's been injured (but that was true last year), McClellin's on IR, and Ryan, Ninkovich, Long, and Sheard all left. But Wise has been a bright spot and Gilmore is at least in theory an upgrade over Ryan. So it's a question of why normally exceptional players like Butler and McCourty and stalwarts like Chung are playing like crap.

My guess is scheme. Last year the Patriots faced very few mobile quarterbacks. Tyrod Taylor and Russell Wilson were about it. And, hey, guess who the only two QBs to beat the 2016 Patriots were?

This year, through four games, the Patriots have faced three quarterbacks that can beat you with their legs in Smith, Watson, and Newton. Against all three they rushed contain and avoided blitzes. This gave these quarterbacks all day to throw, and they picked the Patriots apart because all three are talented passers in addition to being able to pull the ball down and gain yards with their feet.

Yesterday they allowed the absolutely putrid duo of Matt Kalil and Darryl Williams to look like Pro Bowlers because they didn't rush the quarterback. The Patriots finally let loose and brought some heat towards the end of the Panthers game and, well, it worked (they likely win if not for the Gilmore penalty, which was legitimate if ticky-tack). There were other problems, like miscommunication that left receivers wide open, but that wasn't all of it.

Also note how they had their best defensive day against Drew Brees, who's by far the most talented QB of that bunch. Most of the damage Brees did came when the game was no longer in doubt.

Patricia and Belichick are deathly afraid of mobile quarterbacks for whatever reason. They play them too conservatively, and that's been the case for a while. Maybe it's a complex after being embarrassed by the wildcat years ago. The good news is they only have three games against mobile quarterbacks left on their schedule (this week against the Bucs and two games against the Bills), and the offense is so dominant that they will still be favored.

The bad news is one of those games is this week. It makes me leery, because Winston is a quarterback who can pick defenses apart but is prone to boneheaded decisions under pressure. If they decline to bring that pressure, though, they're going to get beat. Taylor is a different case, since he's just not as talented a passer as any of the other mobile QBs they've faced thus far.

Well we know they came out in a scheme we have never seen before week 1 with a 326 with 4 safeties.
Perhaps they practiced in that scheme all camp and once they realized it was ass they are scrambling to install something else.
This team has dozens of not hundreds of coverages and it seems like every db is spending time at different spots.
Maybe they need to settle in personell groupings and roles first.