Roster Projections, after preseason Game 3 at Detroit

[jmt57]

Phil Perry at CSNNE publishes his 4th roster projection as of Sunday night 8/27.

Patriots' 53-man roster projection 4.0: No guarantees

Among those on the bubble on offense he has:
QB: Brissett in
RB: Bolden in, Foster out
WR: Carr and Lucien out
TE/FB: O'Shaugnessy in, Hollister out, Develin in
OL: (8), with Karras, Garcia and Fleming in

Perry also writes that the Pats could keep Foster over O'Shaugnessy, in part because the TE could go to the practice squad and is less likely to be claimed by another team.

He also throws out the idea of cutting Fleming and signing him to the PS in favor of either Foster or O'Shaughnessy for the same reason. (can't agree with that; what happens if there is an in-game injury at OT?) Perry also writes that Waddle or McDermott could be retained for now depending on Solder's readiness for week one.

On defense:
DL: (8), with Grissom and Butler in
LB: (7 - HT, Harris, McClellin, KVN, Langi, Roberts, Bates); Freeny out
CB: (5); C Jones and J Jones in, Moore and Killings out
S: (5); Ebner and King in, Richards out

 

[drewskie]

Phil Perry at CSNNE publishes his 4th roster projection as of Sunday night 8/27.

Patriots' 53-man roster projection 4.0: No guarantees

Among those on the bubble on offense he has:
QB: Brissett in
RB: Bolden in, Foster out
WR: Carr and Lucien out
TE/FB: O'Shaugnessy in, Hollister out, Develin in
OL: (8), with Karras, Garcia and Fleming in

Perry also writes that the Pats could keep Foster over O'Shaugnessy, in part because the TE could go to the practice squad and is less likely to be claimed by another team.

He also throws out the idea of cutting Fleming and signing him to the PS in favor of either Foster or O'Shaughnessy for the same reason. (can't agree with that; what happens if there is an in-game injury at OT?) Perry also writes that Waddle or McDermott could be retained for now depending on Solder's readiness for week one.

On defense:
DL: (8), with Grissom and Butler in
LB: (7 - HT, Harris, McClellin, KVN, Langi, Roberts, Bates); Freeny out
CB: (5); C Jones and J Jones in, Moore and Killings out
S: (5); Ebner and King in, Richards out

I think keeping Foster over O'Shaugnessy is an important roster consideration to make when a team needing RB help would almost certainly claim Foster, who is versatile and played some WR at Arizona State.

 

[Love The Drake]

I'd keep Foster at the expense of Brissett.
Let's play matchmaker what team has a abundance of WRs or D line but need a Runningback?
I think Foster or Lewis is going to be offered in a trade.

 

[patchick]

Phil Perry at CSNNE publishes his 4th roster projection as of Sunday night 8/27.
...
S: (5); Ebner and King in, Richards out

I've seen a lot of projections like this, with a safety roster of McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Ebner and King. With essentially 3 starters in the base nickel, can we really imagine NOTHING but special teams specialists behind them? (Fun fact: in his two full seasons in the NFL, Brandon King has been never played a single snap on defense.)

 

[Mack Herron]

I've seen a lot of projections like this, with a safety roster of McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Ebner and King. With essentially 3 starters in the base nickel, can we really imagine NOTHING but special teams specialists behind them? (Fun fact: in his two full seasons in the NFL, Brandon King has been never played a single snap on defense.)

The argument is that King and Ebner are safeties in the same way Slater is a WR. If so, the answer is "no", we can't have only 3 safeties. And I think we need another WR too. But I have not seen any S or WR who clearly deserves a roster spot. Should be an interesting cut-down day.

 

[Brick27]

I've seen a lot of projections like this, with a safety roster of McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Ebner and King. With essentially 3 starters in the base nickel, can we really imagine NOTHING but special teams specialists behind them? (Fun fact: in his two full seasons in the NFL, Brandon King has been never played a single snap on defense.)

Hilarious seeing these "experts" overlook this sort of thing. With Ebner/King, this year is beginning to to mirror what we hear about WRs every year in terms of the Slater effect. But atleast with Slater most have learned to understand the relationship (or lack of) between him and the number of guys at the WR position.

 

[jmt57]

In 2016 Jordan Richards played a grand total of 18 defensive snaps. Coincidentally that is the same number that Nate Ebner had.


I'm not understanding why not having Richards would be so devastating to the safety position in 2017, when it was of no consequence in 2016.

 

[supafly]

He also throws out the idea of cutting Fleming and signing him to the PS in favor of either Foster or O'Shaughnessy for the same reason. (can't agree with that; what happens if there is an in-game injury at OT?) Perry also writes that Waddle or McDermott could be retained for now depending on Solder's readiness for week one

I agree with you. Can't get behind Perry's thinking here.

To take it one step further, Fleming is currently projected to be a top 3-5 free agent at the OT position, next spring. While that's due to the lack of talent hitting the market in March, it's hard to believe that all of the other 31 teams would choose to pass on claiming him. I don't think he'd make it to the PS.

 

[jmt57]

Right now it looks to me that there are 21 players vying for the nine final roster spots. Obviously some have a much better chance (e.g., O'Shaugnessy) as others such as Waddle or McDermott.

The roster is now at 87 due to the Ealy, Kidder and Lengel transactions. That means 34 more will not be on the 53-man roster on September 2.

Edelman and Rivers will land on IR, and K Davis will probably go on the NFI list. Garcia is a candidate for IR as well. Should all that happen then that leaves 30 more players to be released or waived. That doesn't include Shea McClellin or Matthew Slater, who are other possibilities for IR.

I would think it would be a major surprise that any of the following made the 53-man roster:

• RB LeShun Daniels
• FB Glenn Gronkowski
• TE Sam Cotton
• WR Cody Hollister
• WR K.J. Maye
• WR Tony Washington
• C James Ferentz
• G Jason King
• T Andrew Jelks
• T Max Rich

• DT Josh Augusta
• DT Darius Kilgo
• DT Woodrow Hamilton
• LB Brooks Ellis
• S David Jones
• S Jason Thompson
• CB D.J. Killings
• CB Will Likely

That's 18 more players, which would in theory leave twelve more on the outside looking in.


If my math is correct then some combination of 12 from the group below will presumably be cut, while nine (initially) stick.

• RB Brandon Bolden
• RB D.J. Foster
• TE Jacob Hollister
• TE James O'Shaughnessy
• WR Austin Carr
• WR Devin Lucien
• OL Jamil Douglas
• OL Cole Croston
• OL Conor McDermott
• OL LaAdrian Waddle
• DL Adam Butler
• DE Geneo Grissom
• LB Elandon Roberts
• LB Trevor Bates
• LB Jonathan Freeny
• S Jordan Richards
• S Damarius Travis
• CB Justin Coleman
• CB Cyrus Jones
• CB Jonathan Jones
• CB Kenny Moore

 

[luuked]

I agree with you. Can't get behind Perry's thinking here.

To take it one step further, Fleming is currently projected to be a top 3-5 free agent at the OT position, next spring. While that's due to the lack of talent hitting the market in March, it's hard to believe that all of the other 31 teams would choose to pass on claiming him. I don't think he'd make it to the PS.

I think at the very least the Colts would kick the tire on him seeing how he often was the jumbo TE that gave them issues. But a creative way to open up a roster spot nevertheless.

 

[luuked]

In 2016 Jordan Richards played a grand total of 18 defensive snaps. Coincidentally that is the same number that Nate Ebner had.


I'm not understanding why not having Richards would be so devastating to the safety position in 2017, when it was of no consequence in 2016.

I think the issue is that there is no depth behind Chung at SS. As bad as Richards has looked he is still the next best solution there apart from Ebner.

 

[maineman209]

In 2016 Jordan Richards played a grand total of 18 defensive snaps. Coincidentally that is the same number that Nate Ebner had.


I'm not understanding why not having Richards would be so devastating to the safety position in 2017, when it was of no consequence in 2016.

Well, it turned out to be "of no consequence" because the Pats got lucky with no injuries to the "starting" three. Presumably, at least in the early part of the season, they felt that Richards would develop more in his second year.

Acknowledging that I have no idea what the coaches really think of Richards, it still seems to me that he's failed to develop beyond Ebner's level. Since I also have no idea what the coaches think of Travis or the other two rookie UDFA safeties, and since McCourty and Chung are both now a year older (turning 30 this season), it just makes sense to me that the Pats may look outside the organization for a backup safety to hedge their bet.

 

[patchick]

Well, it turned out to be "of no consequence" because the Pats got lucky with no injuries to the "starting" three. Presumably, at least in the early part of the season, they felt that Richards would develop more in his second year.

Acknowledging that I have no idea what the coaches really think of Richards, it still seems to me that he's failed to develop beyond Ebner's level. Since I also have no idea what the coaches think of Travis or the other two rookie UDFA safeties, and since McCourty and Chung are both now a year older (turning 30 this season), it just makes sense to me that the Pats may look outside the organization for a backup safety to hedge their bet.

Exactly -- all three safeties played all 16 games (an underappreciated aspect of a championship season). Obviously, you can't count on that going forward. My current roster includes Damarius Travis based on my uneducated eye test, but this is definitely a position where they could be scouring the waiver wire.

 

[maineman209]

Exactly -- all three safeties played all 16 games (an underappreciated aspect of a championship season). Obviously, you can't count on that going forward. My current roster includes Damarius Travis based on my uneducated eye test, but this is definitely a position where they could be scouring the waiver wire.

Or looking to make a trade. Perhaps Coleman, if they think Moore has more upside at CB.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Regarding Elandon Roberts and special teams:

Elandon Roberts 2016 Fantasy Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

After getting six ST snaps at Cleveland, Roberts had just one ST snap over the next eight games. For the season Roberts played just 19 ST snaps. That ranked 40th on the team, in on only 4% of all ST plays in 2016.

I find it highly unusual that a defensive rookie, especially one that is not a starter, sees virtually no time on special teams. I don't know the explanation for that, but would have to think it was because he was not carrying out his assignments very well.

I don't know why Roberts didn't play more on Special Teams, but he was learning the defense as a rookie and had injuries to carry, so I think it's also possible they didn't want to overload him. His "explosive" style (BB's word for him) seems suited to Special Teams, and the fact that he was given the green dot helmet in the first pre-season game makes me think that he is smart enough.

 

[maineman209]

I don't know why Roberts didn't play more on Special Teams, but he was learning the defense as a rookie and had injuries to carry, so I think it's also possible they didn't want to overload him. His "explosive" style (BB's word for him) seems suited to Special Teams, and the fact that he was given the green dot helmet in the first pre-season game makes me think that he is smart enough.

IDK, either. Special teams coverage work is often more about high-speed open field tackling, whereas ILB work is often more about close quarters, pushing your way through traffic tackling. It's possible that some guys are simply better at the one thing than the other.

Also, I'm certain that Trevor Bates wore the green dot for awhile in one pre-season game, and I'm pretty sure that Freeny did, too. So, I'm not sure that's an indication of anything other than that the coaches were testing them all.

 

[mgteich]

I believe that Rivers will "initially" stick.

It is difficult to focus on the first cut to 53 or fewer. There will be lots of transactions before Game 1, and then perhaps again before Game 2.

Right now it looks to me that there are 21 players vying for the nine final roster spots. Obviously some have a much better chance (e.g., O'Shaugnessy) as others such as Waddle or McDermott.

The roster is now at 87 due to the Ealy, Kidder and Lengel transactions. That means 34 more will not be on the 53-man roster on September 2.

Edelman and Rivers will land on IR, and K Davis will probably go on the NFI list. Garcia is a candidate for IR as well. Should all that happen then that leaves 30 more players to be released or waived. That doesn't include Shea McClellin or Matthew Slater, who are other possibilities for IR.

I would think it would be a major surprise that any of the following made the 53-man roster:

• RB LeShun Daniels
• FB Glenn Gronkowski
• TE Sam Cotton
• WR Cody Hollister
• WR K.J. Maye
• WR Tony Washington
• C James Ferentz
• G Jason King
• T Andrew Jelks
• T Max Rich

• DT Josh Augusta
• DT Darius Kilgo
• DT Woodrow Hamilton
• LB Brooks Ellis
• S David Jones
• S Jason Thompson
• CB D.J. Killings
• CB Will Likely

That's 18 more players, which would in theory leave twelve more on the outside looking in.


If my math is correct then some combination of 12 from the group below will presumably be cut, while nine (initially) stick.

• RB Brandon Bolden
• RB D.J. Foster
• TE Jacob Hollister
• TE James O'Shaughnessy
• WR Austin Carr
• WR Devin Lucien
• OL Jamil Douglas
• OL Cole Croston
• OL Conor McDermott
• OL LaAdrian Waddle
• DL Adam Butler
• DE Geneo Grissom
• LB Elandon Roberts
• LB Trevor Bates
• LB Jonathan Freeny
• S Jordan Richards
• S Damarius Travis
• CB Justin Coleman
• CB Cyrus Jones
• CB Jonathan Jones
• CB Kenny Moore

 

[luuked]

I don't know why Roberts didn't play more on Special Teams, but he was learning the defense as a rookie and had injuries to carry, so I think it's also possible they didn't want to overload him. His "explosive" style (BB's word for him) seems suited to Special Teams, and the fact that he was given the green dot helmet in the first pre-season game makes me think that he is smart enough.

To me there is a pretty simple reason for that which might also end up making him miss the 53: lack of consistency.

Roberts is very explosive but on many occasions takes himself out of plays or misses making plays by taking a step too much or just the wrong angle.

 

[jmt57]

I believe that Rivers will "initially" stick.

Why? Do you think Rivers will be able to rehab in time to play in 2017?

 

[patchick]

Or looking to make a trade. Perhaps Coleman, if they think Moore has more upside at CB.

With the deluge of players coming at cutdown day, I wouldn't be surprised to see a flurry of player-for-player trades to jump the line. Some more bubble players other teams might be interested in kicking the tires on: Foster, Bolden, J. Hollister, O'Shaughnessy, Carr, Lucien, Douglas, Croston, McDermott, Waddle, Freeney, C. Jones, Moore.