Roster Projections, after preseason Game 3 at Detroit

[jmt57]

Here's one from old friend miDeuce at Pats Propaganda, this one taking a bit of a departure from most roster projections on offense.

Patriots 53-Man Roster Projection v 3.0

RB - Bolden in (for ST) over Foster, with caveat he could easily be cut.
WR - notable that Carr is not included as a replacement for Edelman
TE (2) - Just don’t see anything special from O’Shaughnessy or Hollister or Lengel. All could be cut and brought back if necessary I believe.
OL (9) - one additional lineman than most have, with Fleming, Karras, Waddle and Garcia the backups. Hedging his bets on nine linemen: Toyed with putting Garcia on IR to open another spot. He’s been out most of camp and even when he was in he didn’t look ready for the NFL yet. Might be best to let him work behind the scenes to get bigger and healthy. Can’t see him cut of course. Kept Fleming and Waddle both because I had the space, but again, one of them is likely gone.

Defense: Roberts in, Freeny and Bates out. Goes with six corners (C Jones, Coleman, J Jones over Moore). Five safeties, with Jordan Richards getting cut.

 

[jmt57]

From Ben Volin, on 8/27:

Ben Volin: Picking the Patriots’ 53-man roster just got more difficult. Here’s our projection - The Boston Globe

QB: Volin goes with two, noting that Brissett did not play at all in preseason game #3, and the fact the Patriots need help due to the Edelman and Rivers injuries.
RB: (6), including both Bolden AND Foster. Bolden is there strictly for ST, while Foster is included as part of filling the void left by Edelman's injury.
TE (3): O'Shaughnessy gets in over Hollister for ST.
WR (4): going with Foster rather than Carr or Lucien.
OL (9): Karras, Fleming, Garcia and McDermott are the backups.

DE and DT - the standard four at each position.
LB (6): Roberts is in, and Volin takes Bates over Freeny. He also had an interesting opinion on Harris:

We’re not sold on Harris making this team. There is no question he is one of the smartest players in the locker room, and can be a leader of great character for this squad. But Harris also looked old and slow against the Lions, and could be viewed as a progress stopper for some of the Patriots’ younger defenders.

Harris is only a first- and second-down linebacker now, but that is also the role for Roberts, who is younger, cheaper, and packs a big wallop. For now, Harris makes the team, but he could be a surprise cut next weekend.​

CB (5): C Jones and J Jones are in; no mention of Coleman or Moore.
S: no mention of Jordan Richards, he is gone.

 

[patchick]

From Ben Volin, on 8/27:
...
OL (9): Karras, Fleming, Garcia and McDermott are the backups.

Interesting that almost every projection has Karras as the sole backup for three starting IOL positions. Even Volin here, keeping 9 OL, just loads up on more pure tackles. (And IMO keeping McDermott over Croston reflects draft position rather than camp performance.)

 

[jmt57]

Final media roster projection for tonight, this one from Kevin Duffy:

New England Patriots roster projection: Julian Edelman injury, Kony Ealy release create openings

QB: Brissett in
RB: Bolden in, Foster out; implies Bolden's roster battle may be with Grissom, not Foster.
WR: Carr, Lucien out.
TE: Hollister over O'Shaughnessy
OT: four including Garcia, though he could go to IR.
IOL: Karras the lone backup.

DL: nine, with Grissom in for ST.

Adam Butler has played his way onto the roster. He has been consistent in practices, and he was a force in Friday's win over the Lions. More on that here.

Butler, an undrafted free agent out of Vanderbilt, has the ability to play most positions along the defensive line. He has played on the nose in three-man fronts as well as defensive end in other situations.​

LB: Bates and Roberts in, Freeny out.

Tough spot for Freeny. He is 28 years old while Elandon Roberts and Trevor Bates are 23. The Pats will likely be inclined to keep the younger player(s) if the talent is relatively equal.

Neither Harris nor Roberts has been great this summer, but both are necessary if the Pats plan to use Hightower as an outside linebacker/defensive end.​

CB: Cyrus Jones in over Coleman and Moore

Cyrus Jones sticks. While he has struggled at cornerback in the preseason, he has done enough as a return man to merit a spot.

Rarely do NFL teams bail on second-round picks after just one season. Jones offers promise as a returner and the injury to Julian Edelman limits the club's options in that area.​

S: another person voting Jordan Richards off the island.

Richards had a nightmarish preseason opener at free safety. He played closer to the line of scrimmage Friday against the Lions and didn't fare much better. He whiffed on an open field tackle of Detroit running back Dwayne Washington, who strolled into the end zone for an 18-yard touchdown on the play.

Richards is a practice squad candidate if he is waived and goes unclaimed.​

 

[Tunescribe]

Brissett is for next season.

I hope not, but we'll find out.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

My WAG as of now:

QB (3) T.Brady, J.Garoppolo, J.Brissett
RB (6) M.Gillislee, D.Lewis, R.Burkhead, J.White, J.Develin, B.Bolden
WR (5) B.Cooks, C.Hogan, D.Amendola, M.Mitchell, M.Slater
TE (3) R.Gronkowski, D.Allen, J.O'Shaughnessy
C (1) D.Andrews
G (3) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras
T (4) N.Solder, M.Cannon, C.Fleming, L.Waddle
DE (3) T.Flowers, D.Wise, G.Grissom
DT (5) A.Branch, M.Brown, V.Valentine, L.Guy, A.Butler
ILB(4) D.Hightower, D.Harris, H.Langi, E.Roberts
OLB(2) K.VanNoy, S.McClellin
CB (6) M.Butler, S.Gilmore, E.Rowe, C.Jones, J.Jones, J.Coleman
SS (3) P.Chung, N.Ebner, B.King
FS (2) D.McCourty, D.Harmon
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona

Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: Pats Picker 2017

Commentary:
- assuming that Edelman, Rivers, and Garcia go on IR, while Solder, McClellan, Langi, Roberts, and Mitchell are healthy enough to play. If Garcia can play, he replaces Waddle.

- think the team will "replace" Edelman not via an additional WR but by going with more multiple back sets. My tough cut here was DJ Foster, going with Bolden's special teams reliability and overall system knowledge instead. But if my strategy guess is correct, Foster's role still would only be as backup/developmental, thinking it's the other 4 guys who would benefit from more time in the field.

- To extend on that last point - I don't have Austin Carr on the roster. But if my opinion on how to replace Edelman is accurate, Carr's spot on the roster wouldn't depend on Edelman at all. That is to say - if they think he is a worthy guy to develop in the slot (and replace Amendola next year), they likely would have found a way to stash him on the roster for a red-shirt year even prior to Edelman getting hurt. Personally, I haven't seen quickness that makes him look special yet (granting that his hands and apparent quick pick up of the system are positives), so I'm assuming the answer to that question is no.

- For a nickel/dime based team, the depth at safety looks terrible unless they really think Ebner and/or King could play if needed (top 3 of course are phenomenal). I don't think anyone else has looked good in training camp. I'd mark this position down for a potential outside upgrade, possibly impacting Grissom if he can play special teams, or Coleman if they think he maxed out. Another option is that the team may think Cyrus Jones could fill in at safety if needed.

- At corner, I only think Gilmore and Rowe have truly distinguished themselves in the preseason. Butler had bounced back very well against Detroit until the TD pass. Otherwise, it's a mixed bag. I haven't seen Moore keep up his strong start to the preseason, which is why I've cut him for Coleman.

- potential practice squad guys if they make it through: DJ Foster, McDermott, Croston, Lucien, Carr, J Hollister, Moore, Bates, Augusta, one external guy

Update post-Marquis Flowers trade: using Matt Chatham's depth chart as a guide (the base being a NT, "Defensive Guard" DE, and "OLB/DE" front with a traditional 4-3 MLB), I think Flowers takes Grissom's spot in my projection. Both guys are special teamers, Grissom hasn't shown much on defense yet, and the Pats may believe Flowers has a higher ceiling on D than Grissom should McClellin be out for an extended time. Grissom would be a PS candidate in case Flowers doesn't work out or another injury strikes.

 

[jmt57]

Here is another roster projection, this from Doug Kyed at NESN, as of Aug 28

Patriots 53-Man Roster Projection: Who Replaces Julian Edelman?

Notable players on the bubble:
- Bolden in as a 5th RB
- Carr in as a 5th WR (6 including Slater)
- O'Shaugnessy as the 3rd TE
- the typical 8 OL, with Fleming, Karras and Garcia as backups
- the standard 8 DL, with Grissom as the last one in
- Roberts in at LB, Freeny and Bates out.
- C Jones and J Jones in at CB; Richards out at S

 

[supafly]

What has Garcia shown thus far for every single media projection to be including him as OT depth in an 8 man OL?

From all accounts, he's an injured rookie who has underperformed and is currently undersized. Would he actually be ready to play OT on this team anytime soon? If the answer to that is yes, then we need to bring in another OT.

How does Garcia make it over Fleming/Waddle in his current state? I think he's got to be either IR'ed or IR-designated to return (if they think he has the capacity to grow and contribute to the 2017 team).

 

[mgteich]

I believe that most 8 man OL's have
5 STARTERS
KARRAS as the IOL backup
FLEMING as the OT backup
GARCIA or WADDLE as the 8th
Additional IOL and OT depth on the PS

What has Garcia shown thus far for every single media projection to be including him as OT depth in an 8 man OL?

From all accounts, he's an injured rookie who has underperformed and is currently undersized. Would he actually be ready to play OT on this team anytime soon? If the answer to that is yes, then we need to bring in another OT.

How does Garcia make it over Fleming/Waddle in his current state? I think he's got to be either IR'ed or IR-designated to return (if they think he has the capacity to grow and contribute to the 2017 team).

 

[supafly]

I believe that most 8 man OL's have
5 STARTERS
KARRAS as the IOL backup
FLEMING as the OT backup
GARCIA or WADDLE as the 8th
Additional IOL and OT depth on the PS

I'm just wondering how we'd be one OT injury away to making Garcia the backup/next man up when he's been hurt all summer, hasn't been practicing or getting preseason reps, and was reportedly having issues in late July/early August due to being undersized?

That doesn't make any sense to me. Either we keep 9 OL or he goes to IR, where they can re-assess his situation down the road and determine if he's worth bringing back later on this year.

 

[jmt57]

I'm just wondering how we'd be one OT injury away to making Garcia the backup/next man up when he's been hurt all summer, hasn't been practicing or getting preseason reps, and was reportedly having issues in late July/early August due to being undersized?

That doesn't make any sense to me. Either we keep 9 OL or he goes to IR, where they can re-assess his situation down the road and determine if he's worth bringing back later on this year.

I agree. If he is on the original 53-man roster, the only possible valid reason would be to place him on IR the next day, and hope that he might be available late in the season.

It's not worth wasting a roster spot if it is just so he can practice with the team at some point in November, but be a healthy scratch as a game day inactive every week.

 

[mgteich]

We fuss a lot about the last couple of spots before the "final cut". Belichick has no problem cutting down to 52 or 51. He expects to sign and try out players from other teams.

As far as Garcia, not practicing with the team all year is generally the death knell for rookies. Belichick might prefer to use a roster sport on this developmental player, even though he won't contribute this year.

 

[maineman209]

As far as Garcia, not practicing with the team all year is generally the death knell for rookies.

Absolutely agree. Probably depends on what health issue Garcia is dealing with.

Teams are now being able to bring TWO players back from IR,, as long as they're on the 53-man after cutdowns, and then sent to IR. Those players can being practicing with the team after six weeks, and are eligible to return to the team after eight weeks. Plus, teams don't have to decide in advance who they're bring back from IR.

While on IR, players can rehab/workout at the Pats facility, attend meetings, watch tape, study the playbook, etc. Even travel with the team to away games.

So, conceivably, Garcia could be kept on the 53 through Sunday night, sent to IR on Monday morning, rehab for six weeks, begin practicing with the team in mid-October, and re-instated after the BYE week. Meanwhile, the Pats get to keep their 53-man OL count at 8 with a healthy body at backup OT.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Don't know if this is correct or not:



If it is correct, except a bunch of IR's here (like Garcia) - they have the opportunity to bring one or two of them back later if needed, so they act as useful backups.

 

[maineman209]

Don't know if this is correct or not:



If it is correct, except a bunch of IR's here (like Garcia) - they have the opportunity to bring one or two of them back later if needed, so they act as useful backups.

AFAIK, only players who are on the 53-man roster AFTER cutdowns are eligible for return if placed on IR. So, any players who are IR'd now would be exempt from waivers, but NOT eligible to be bright back later this season.

 

[supafly]

AFAIK, only players who are on the 53-man roster AFTER cutdowns are eligible for return if placed on IR. So, any players who are IR'd now would be exempt from waivers, but NOT eligible to be bright back later this season.

We know Edelman won't need to take up a spot on the initial 53, but will Rivers? I thought the move could be corresponding and made immediately? For all intents and purposes, we really don't need to include a guy like Rivers on our projections, right?

As Miguel notes, it could be possible that the same thinking could apply to guys they may want to bring back in terms of a corresponding move. As you note, it wasn't that way in the past, as far as I remember. Then again, they've technically done away with the IR-D category, so it would make sense that it could be a new rule.

Personally, I don't really care aside for attempting to make roster projections. I suppose we'll find out soon enough. If a guy like Bolden initially needs to be cut to make room for a guy like Garcia, then it makes sense that Bolden would be brought back the next day if that's how it works, but that would be a pretty convoluted system they have going there.

 

[patchick]

I'm just wondering how we'd be one OT injury away to making Garcia the backup/next man up when he's been hurt all summer, hasn't been practicing or getting preseason reps, and was reportedly having issues in late July/early August due to being undersized?

...meanwhile Croston has gotten extensive snaps all over the line, and looks like a reasonable backup at both tackle and guard. Just sayin'.

 

[mgteich]

...meanwhile Croston has gotten extensive snaps all over the line, and looks like a reasonable backup at both tackle and guard. Just sayin'.

Does this work?

OUR BACKUPS
OT - Fleming
OG/C - Karras
OG/OT - Croston
IR - Garcia (after the cut, so that he can practice with the team after Game 8)

 

[Mike the Brit]

Going to cut this year's Ron Burton Award winner? Well, yes, could be ... this is the Patriots.

Jordan Richards wins Ron Burton Community Service Award​

 

[jmt57]

Don't know if this is correct or not:



If it is correct, except a bunch of IR's here (like Garcia) - they have the opportunity to bring one or two of them back later if needed, so they act as useful backups.

First off, note that Miguel is talking about the 90-man roster, not the 53-man roster - though in this case that may be irrelevant.

Second, I don't believe that whomever DM'd him that information is correct. Everything I have seen on the subject says that prior to the Sept 2 cutdown to a 53-man roster, a non-vested player cannot be placed on IR without going through waivers first.

Third, although teams no longer have to designate a player for return when placed on IR like they formerly had to do, everything I have read on the subject states that any player that returns from IR has to have been on the 53-man roster at some point.

Fourth, if non-vested players could be placed on IR now without having to go through waivers, then Rivers would have already been placed on IR. For example, Miami's Isaiah was waived/injured and then placed on IR the next day after nobody claimed him.