Patriots Early 53-Man Roster Projection 1.0

[PatsFans.com Article]

Patriots Early 53-Man Roster Projection 1.0

Steve Balestrieri

The New England Patriots will have many difficult decisions to make at the end of training camp this summer. They enter the 2017 season fresh off a Super Bowl win and have re-tooled their roster to an even more dangerous (on paper) group that was victorious in February.

They seem to have more than made up for the players that they’ve lost in free agency and appear poised for another deep playoff run in 2017. Bill Belichick went against the grain once again and traded most of his draft picks in what was considered a very deep draft and came away with a slew of established veterans.

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[tasmlab]

What happens to LB Elandon(sp) Roberts?

 

[Wordsmyth]

Good question. I love Elandon's game. Hope he can stay.

 

[mgteich]

I'm fine with this roster, which is a bit scary this early.

8 OL's seems right, since all are ready to go, although we might add a veteran lineman as the Game Day backup at OG and C.

Losing another to keep a Practice Squad quality interior lineman seems wrong. We should carry at 3 OL's on the Practice Squad.

Burkhead replaces Bolden as the RB who is a ST specialist

The team is complete without UDFA's. Absent injuries, the OP considers three to have a reasonable chance at the roster. He guesses that Langi and Jones will make it, pushing out Roberts (LB) and Richards (SS). These competitions could go wither way. As the OP indicates, Hollister also has a chance to beat out Shaugnessey as the 3rd TE. so, absent injuries, it seems that we will have 0-3 UDFA's.

 

[captain stone]

No mention of OG Jamil Douglas, at all? If he wants it badly enough, then his talent should beat out Mongo Jr Jr for #4 IOL (though I would prefer to carry 5).

Cameron Phlegming ahead of Conor McDermott? I really, really hope not.

And what exactly has Brandon King done to warrant a lock as a ST-only "ace"?
Damarius Travis has much, Much, MUCH greater potential on defense, and I wager would provide similar production on STs.

 

[mgteich]

No mention of OG Jamil Douglas, at all? If he wants it badly enough, then his talent should beat out Mongo Jr Jr for #4 IOL (though I would prefer to carry 5).

Cameron Phlegming ahead of Conor McDermott? I really, really hope not.

And what exactly has Brandon King done to warrant a lock as a ST-only "ace"?
Damarius Travis has much, Much, MUCH greater potential on defense, and I wager would provide similar production on STs.

You are consistent. You always favor many more kids to replace veterans, and a willing to bet that some UDFA's that only you have on the roster would do better on ST's than one of last year's regulars.

 

[supafly]

Very nice projection. It would be difficult to disagree with much of it. As mentioned, I may have chosen a 9th OL at the interior position, but they've gone with 8 before, and doing so would help to free up another player. Obviously, a couple OL on the PS is a must.

My one and only area of consideration is that I may cut McClellin and save that cap hit, but that's for Belichick to decide.

I like your STs players as well. I agree that an UDFA will make it at safety, although that could be Thomas instead of Jones.

 

[hornetfb85]

I would be pretty surprised if E. Roberts does not make the 53.

 

[mgteich]

Very nice projection. It would be difficult to disagree with much of it. As mentioned, I may have chosen a 9th OL at the interior position, but they've gone with 8 before, and doing so would help to free up another player. Obviously, a couple OL on the PS is a must.

My one and only area of consideration is that I may cut McClellin and save that cap hit, but that's for Belichick to decide.

I like your STs players as well. I agree that an UDFA will make it at safety, although that could be Thomas instead of Jones.

It's a bit early for such widespread agreement.

1) We're not sure who will be the odd man out at linebacker.

2) We're not sure who will be the backup to Chung.

3) We're not sure who will be the last player: a 9th OL or a special teamer.

 

[jmt57]

I guess I am in the minority here, but I wouldn't be surprised if Elandon Roberts does not make the 2017 roster. Van Noy and McClellin will most likely return. With the addition of David Harris that makes four linebackers. The team's most common formation is a 4-2, which has resulted with their going with five linebackers rather than six on the 53-man roster recently. That would leave somebody to take Mingo's roster spot as a linebacker in name only, who primarily plays special teams. Roberts got almost no time on ST last year even though he was a rookie. For right now I would pencil in Harvey Langi over Roberts.

Way too early to say for sure though. Let's see them in training camp at minimum, and preferably after the joint practices and a few preseason games.

 

[Brick27]

These are some great problems to have. Considering some teams are unsure of who their starting QB will be..life feels pretty good when one of the biggest question marks is whether or not to carry a 9th OL.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm fine with this roster, which is a bit scary this early.

8 OL's seems right, since all are ready to go, although we might add a veteran lineman as the Game Day backup at OG and C.

Losing another to keep a Practice Squad quality interior lineman seems wrong. We should carry at 3 OL's on the Practice Squad.

Burkhead replaces Bolden as the RB who is a ST specialist

The team is complete without UDFA's. Absent injuries, the OP considers three to have a reasonable chance at the roster. He guesses that Langi and Jones will make it, pushing out Roberts (LB) and Richards (SS). These competitions could go wither way. As the OP indicates, Hollister also has a chance to beat out Shaugnessey as the 3rd TE. so, absent injuries, it seems that we will have 0-3 UDFA's.

I dont think it's reasonable to project udfas before a single camp practice.
None would make it today, all have a chance to earn it.

 

[meatface]

I have no idea what s going to happen with Elandon Roberts, some people are writing him as a Roster lock and others are saying hes a bubble guy. I have no idea but I think it seems a little silly to pencil in Harvey Langi over Roberts before training camp has even started, no matter how big his signing bonus was.

 

[supafly]

I dont think it's reasonable to project udfas before a single camp practice.
None would make it today, all have a chance to earn it.

While your statement is quite valid, when was the last time an UDFA didn't make the team? I think that's helping to shape some opinions, as well as the lack of depth behind a guy like Chung, of course.

 

[mgteich]

For right now I would pencil in Harvey Langi over Roberts.

What makes you think that Langi is a better STer than Freeny?

 

[jmt57]

What makes you think that Langi is a better STer than Freeny?

I should have expanded that comment.

Freeny is no doubt a better special teamer than Langi right now.

However, Langi has a much higher ceiling as a linebacker than Freeny does. Langi also comes at a much lower price, and with far more tread still left on the tires. That makes Langi the better overall value.

 

[mgteich]

I should have expanded that comment.

Freeny is no doubt a better special teamer than Langi right now.

However, Langi has a much higher ceiling as a linebacker than Freeny does. Langi also comes at a much lower price, and with far more tread still left on the tires. That makes Langi the better overall value.

I agree that Langi is a better linebacker for the future. I would remind us that Freely is an adequate backup now (at least in Belichick's mind). He's been injured, and this may be a non-issue. For this year, we'll have Ninkovich/Rivers on the EDGE plus Hightower, Harris, Van Noy, and Mc Clellan.

The open question is whether Belichick will require another front seven defensive STer. We've lost Mingo AND (will likely lose) Grissom. That's lots of reps. Personally, I'm not comfortable (as so many seem to be) that one just plugs in a rookie and everything will work out.

For example, I am OK with losing Bolden, if and only if Burkhead is an adequate replacement on special teams. Belichick has cut Bolden yet. I think that he is ST insurance at this point.

 

[BTTA]

Any roster projection that only staffs the offense and the defense, and doesn't staff the special teams in the same manner, is incomplete and not a reflection of how the coaching staff does it. I realize this is the tradition for fans, to ignore filling out the special teams positionally, but we can't possibly advocate for players on the "back half" of the roster without seeing those special teams rosters filled out the same way the offense and defense is.

 

[mgteich]

Any roster projection that only staffs the offense and the defense, and doesn't staff the special teams in the same manner, is incomplete and not a reflection of how the coaching staff does it. I realize this is the tradition for fans, to ignore filling out the special teams positionally, but we can't possibly advocate for players on the "back half" of the roster without seeing those special teams rosters filled out the same way the offense and defense is.

I know we've posted this before, but can someone post 2016 special teams reps.

 

[jmt57]

I know we've posted this before, but can someone post 2016 special teams reps.

Per Pro Football Reference:

1. ------ 359 --- 80% ---- Nate Ebner
2. ----- 323 --- 72% ----- Barkevious Mingo
3. ----- 307 --- 69% ----- Jonathan Jones
4. ----- 299 --- 67% ----- Brandon King

5. ----- 264 --- 59% ----- Brandon Bolden
6. ----- 250 --- 56% ----- Geneo Grissom

7. ----- 226 --- 50% ----- Matt Slater
8. ----- 218 ---- 49% ---- Shea McClellin
9. ----- 201 ---- 45% ----- Patrick Chung

10. ---- 153 ---- 34% ----- Alan Branch
11. ---- 151 ---- 34% ----- James Develin
12. ---- 151 ----- 34% ---- Jordan Richards
13. ---- 142 ---- 32% ---- Devin McCourty
14. ---- 125 ---- 28% ---- Duron Harmon