The "The Pats don't need many draft picks this year" talk

[varjao]

This year this seems to be a recurring subject since Bill traded a lot of our draft picks but actually every year I listen something on those lines. Considering Bill has been building deep and quality rosters for a while and we are not the Browns, every year in the past 3 or 4 years I listen something like "The Pats won't have room for 7 or 8 rookies, so we should trade up for a player with more probability to work out".

Well, every year after the roster cuts some of our draftees are cut, or stashed on the practice squad, that's normal and in my opinion and it's a process Bill has been using for a while to filter the better players and squeeze everything he can out of the 90 players who start training camp. So it's not a waste when you cut a rookie like many people seem to think. Out of 8 rookies, you have to consider players that are busts already on training camp, guys that can't make the transition to the pros, guys that their heads are not 100% on football, guys that are ok but don't fit your scheme, etc..so out of 7 or 8 rookies if you keep 4 of them that give you solid contribution during 4 years that's a good draft. And cutting players is part of this process. So you don't trade up and go to the draft with only 4 or 5 picks because your roster is stacked, because you're not gonna hit on all the choices.

So in my opinion Bill would rather bring 7 or 8 rookies spread all over the draft rounds than like 3 or 4 players from the first rounds. You never know when you're gonna hit a Sherman, an Antonio Brown, or that Brady kid. So it doesn't matter how stacked your roster already is, bringing rookies aboard is a big part of the process of building deep rosters long term.

Now back to this years draft and after having said all of that, I will deconstruct my argument and I really have to agree that this year there is not a lot of room and it may be one of the reasons BB traded some of our picks for proven players even though in the end of their rookies contracts and is all cool heading to the draft, probably already ordered a few gallons of Orange Juice for the draft room.

I don't think BB works with the concept of a championship window or Brady window but there's a chance this year he may have opened an exception in order to take the most out of a big chance we have to repeat and win #6. So now I can really say with confidence that I don't think Jimmy G is going to be traded, the thread was not to discuss that but it's related anyway. If I'm correct in my thoughts, it's a big plan, that could result in a disaster if your backup QB can't win you 2 or 3 games if needed.

 

[BelichickFan]

It's moot because we're only missing one pick. The first.

Our second round pick is replaced by a pick 8 picks later. Rounds 3,4,5,6,7 we have picks. We're missing one. One.

 

[rainmaker]

It's moot because we're only missing one pick. The first.

Our second round pick is replaced by a pick 8 picks later. Rounds 3,4,5,6,7 we have picks. We're missing one. One.

Agree. We were missing one last year as well and hoisted the Lombardi. We will be ok.

 

[JMC00]

It's moot because we're only missing one pick. The first.

Our second round pick is replaced by a pick 8 picks later. Rounds 3,4,5,6,7 we have picks. We're missing one. One.

Ya Pats used draft picks to get a #1 WR, #2 TE, #1 RB (presumably), a #2 DE (presumably) and after that the only round they don't have a pick in is the 1st..

 

[patchick]

Totally agree. I went on a little rant at one point about how people say this every single year. If I may lazily quote myself:

as for the "no room for rookies," the fact that we always say that yet late-round picks and UDFAs always make the roster and contribute gives the lie to it. The Patriots' current starting roster includes half a dozen day-3/undrafted prospects who joined stacked rosters with "no room."

More generally, more rookies means more competition. It means more lottery tickets that just-maybe can turn into a Julian Edelman or Malcolm Butler. It means more depth and options in the case of injury. And most important of all, it means planning for the future so that you never have a rebuilding year. Yes, the 2017 roster would probably be fine without a single draft pick. But you don't draft for this season, you draft for next season and beyond. The 2018 roster obviously does have holes, and it's not too early to think about filling them.

 

[Rob0729]

It's moot because we're only missing one pick. The first.

Our second round pick is replaced by a pick 8 picks later. Rounds 3,4,5,6,7 we have picks. We're missing one. One.

Well, it isn't moot because I don't have to start to watch the draft until about 30 minutes later tomorrow night. That is huge!

 

[Fixit]

I'm bummed because I was hoping they'd draft someone like Brandin Cooks with that first-rounder.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Well said OP. Karen Guregian basically comes to the same conclusion

Guregian: Patriots don’t even need the NFL draft this year

The Pats should just use the six picks they have and go win another Super Bowl. Use the draft and fill in the areas where depth is an issue. In other words, go get another pass rusher and maybe grab another cornerback since Butler will be lost after the upcoming season. Then go make the rest of the NFL miserable like always.

 

[patfanken]

Ian posted a clip that summarized last season's draft picks. It was a good lesson and the both the value of doing well and how little we really know about the kids we draft until they actualy get to play a bit. Think about it.

We didn't have a first round pick (thanks roger and see YOU in September.

Cyrus Jones was our 2nd pick, and clearly disappointed, but mostly because of his ST's work. I still have high hopes that by the 2018 season he'll be an effective CB in the league.

We got Joe Thunney next and that turned out to be a home run. The kid worked with the starters from the first day of camp and never left.

We got Brissett in the 3rd - I thought of it as a waste at the time, but he actually was productive for a us in a tough spot and could be a key back up down the road.

Malcom Mitchell was next and we all know his story. He was a spot contributor all season who made his biggest contribution in the biggest game of the year.

Vincent Valentine is often forgotten, but he really had a very good rookie season, especially given where he was drafted. By the end of the season he was fully intergrated into the DT rotation. He will be someone to watch this TC

Karras did show much but that was mostly because the OL was very healthy all year. We shall see how he pans out, but right now he's the next man up in the interior OL.

Roberts was another guy who went from obscurity into the regular rotation in a very short time and did pretty well for a back of the draft pick up.

Lucien - He was another nice pick up and will probable end up playing somewhere in the NFL down the road, just probably not with the Pats. But still shows that at least in THIS particular year the Pats really did a great job at identifying talent that was good enough to play for this team.

Also I shoud mention what a good job the Pats seem to do with UDFA's. There's one or more that seem to make impacts every year. in 2014 there was Butler, in 2015 it was Andrews ,in 2016 it was JJones and to a lesser degree Foster. That is quite an accomplishment for a team that isn't desperate for talent. Given the past history, there is currently now a player who won't be drafted in the next three days who will end up on the Pats 53 man roster to start the season.

So I guess the point of this post is to point out the obvious. The Patriots had one hell of draft last season, despite Goodell's attempt to sabotage it. AND once again I will not check who the Pats picked until the draft is fully completed. I will probably not recognize any of the names we selected, and likely will bemoan the fact they didn't pick any of the name I DID know about.

Then there will be the weeks where we will bemoan the fact that all these OTHER teams got this guy and that guy, who will improve their teams and we will have lost yet ANOTHER draft season. UNTIL we look back a year later to find out we actually did a lot better than we thought.

 

[Keyser Söze]

NFL GMs are saying Conley could fall to the 3rd. Oh baby if he fell to us

 

[luuked]

Don't take it personally OP but it feels like we are getting the same kind of posts every year. Really can't wait for the draft to be over.

 

[Deus Irae]

Most low round picks/UDFAs are just replacing busts or other low round chum. The Patriots, for a couple of reasons, are better at finding legit contributors from among those groups than most, but the numbers are still the numbers.

This Patriots team should be among the most loaded of the BB era and, as we've discussed in threads, there are areas with little/no chance for a rookie to stick barring a rarity happening. When it comes to

QB
RB
WR

Just for example, there's currently no room at the inn. Then there's the defensive backfield, and the TE spot.

If Butler stays, the CB need is at the chum/development level, unless they find a quality slot CB.
The S need is at the Chum/development level
The TE needs is at that Chum/development/specialist level

etc...

Are there openings? Sure but, with few positional exceptions, they're depth slots where lower level players will be trying to hold off draftees and UDFAs.

 

[Ivan]

It's moot because we're only missing one pick. The first.

Our second round pick is replaced by a pick 8 picks later. Rounds 3,4,5,6,7 we have picks. We're missing one. One.

I get what you are trying to say but they don't have a first or second round pick, they do have a high third. I love the Ealy trade but it's still not a second.

 

[mgteich]

When it comes to

QB
RB
WR

Just for example, there's currently no room at the inn.

It will be difficult to find spots for the players we have at these positions. Allocate 9 for OL (especially since 2-3 will be rookies) and 3 at TE, and we will have 12-14 at these 4 positions.

Of course, folks can continue to wish that Belichick stops carrying special team players like Slater, Bolden, Grissom, Ebner, King and J Jones.

 

[Deus Irae]

It will be difficult to find spots for the players we have at these positions. Allocate 9 for OL (especially since 2-3 will be rookies) and 3 at TE, and we will have 12-14 at these 4 positions.

Of course, folks can continue to wish that Belichick stops carrying special team players like Slater, Bolden, Grissom, Ebner, King and J Jones.

I do think that it's entirely possible BB will cut back on the ST-only numbers this year. If I were King, and even if I were Bolden or Ebner, I'd keep myself ready to move at a moment's notice, just in case.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

NFL GMs are saying Conley could fall to the 3rd. Oh baby if he fell to us

Assuming he's innocent. . . . what a steal that would be!

If the criminal charges are dropped and we draft him, could Goodell hire Wells to find that "it was more probable than not that he's guilty" and suspend him based on that? The NFL justice system is a bit confusing to me.

 

[patchick]

It will be difficult to find spots for the players we have at these positions. Allocate 9 for OL (especially since 2-3 will be rookies) and 3 at TE, and we will have 12-14 at these 4 positions.

Of course, folks can continue to wish that Belichick stops carrying special team players like Slater, Bolden, Grissom, Ebner, King and J Jones.

Another way to think of it is that a player at one of the loaded positions -- barring a huge bargain opportunity -- will have to displace a guy like Bolden or King on ST. I could picture an ST-ace WR like Mack Hollins taking one of those spots.

 

[Deus Irae]

Another way to think of it is that a player at one of the loaded positions -- barring a huge bargain opportunity -- will have to displace a guy like Bolden or King on ST. I could picture an ST-ace WR like Mack Hollins taking one of those spots.

The Patriots have already signed a ST replacement:

http://www.bengals.com/team/roster/rex-burkhead/215b64a4-2717-420c-8fb4-7a8d117bd57e/

The question is whether or not they'll use him that way.

 

[BelichickFan]

I get what you are trying to say but they don't have a first or second round pick, they do have a high third. I love the Ealy trade but it's still not a second.

You're right. Clearly. But we'll likely get a similarly ranked player (if not the exact same player) that we would have taken. Bottom line, when you look at the value of our picks it will be just slightly lower than if we had all our picks minus the #1.

 

[BelichickFan]

Another way to think of it is that a player at one of the loaded positions -- barring a huge bargain opportunity -- will have to displace a guy like Bolden or King on ST. I could picture an ST-ace WR like Mack Hollins taking one of those spots.

With Amendola and Edelman both UFA after the season, WR is a sleeper position as long as we can save a ST only spot with others (like Burkehead and, perhaps, Hollins). Someone like Hollins could easily make a 6th WR doable over Bolden.