Full Patriots, NFL 2017 Schedule released

[supafly]

Can you bust out your stat machine, JM, and tell me when and how often it's happened. I can recall the times teams *****ed about have 3 out of 4 on the road, but NEVER 5 of 6. If this has happened twice before in the last 2 decades I'd be shocked.

If this isn't "getting even" I'm not sure what is. The more I think about it, the more steamed I get.

I am wondering now if Belichick requested the Broncos and Raiders games to be back-to-back. If I recall he did something similar in 2008 with the idea of having the team stay out west, and therefore avoid two long flights west. If he did do so though, I doubt he envisioned the team playing five out of six on the road (especially with a short week leading up to Pittsburgh).

Regarding five games out of six on the road I was surprised to find it has not been historically as bad as I thought it would be. The data below is for all AFC teams going back through 2005 (I'll add the NFC when I get around to it).

Five out of six games on the road (AFC, 2005-2016)
How often: four instances.
Cumulative record: 9-15 (.375)
- Dolphins, 2011: 1-5 in those six games (5-5 in all others).
- Bills, 2015: 2-4 in those six games (6-4 in all others).
- Ravens, 2008: 4-2 in those six games (7-3 in all others).
- Texans, 2006: 2-4 in those six games (4-6 in all others).

Of course the caveat is that this is a very small sample size and really needs to be further scrutinized by the quality of the opponents. Bottom line is that five out of six on the road is highly unusual.


In regards to three consecutive road games, here is the data for the same time frame (AFC from 2005-2016). I was surprised it happens as often as it does.
How often: 22 instances.
Cumulative record: 22-44 (.333)
- (2) times teams went 3-0
- (4) times teams went 2-1
- (8) times teams went 1-2
- (8) times teams went 0-3

In case you are wondering who the two teams were that swept, it was the 2014 Bengals and 2005 Jaguars. Both teams lost in the wild card round of the playoffs.

 

[luuked]

Pitt's a short week, as the last of 3 straight road games.
Denver's a nighttime start after a trip west that puts the team a mile above sea level.

As I said, at least with Denver, it's after the bye. That's about the most gentle screwing that matchup was going to get.

Factor in that we have two games in a row with an opponent coming off BYE during that away stretch as well:



for context:




That Raiders game could be the perfect storm of things testing the team's mental toughness (and conditioning). At least the Miami game is at home but I somehow don't like the idea that Miami will face us twice within three weeks directly after their BYE.

 

[jmt57]

Can you bust out your stat machine, JM, and tell me when and how often it's happened. I can recall the times teams *****ed about have 3 out of 4 on the road, but NEVER 5 of 6. If this has happened twice before in the last 2 decades I'd be shocked.

If this isn't "getting even" I'm not sure what is. The more I think about it, the more steamed I get.

I have only done the AFC and only went back to 2005. That is twelve seasons times 16 teams, which equals 192 possibilities. It (5 out of 6) has only happened four times during that time period.

In other words a one in 48 probability.

A 0.2% chance of having to play five out of six games on the road in any given season.

And that is without taking into account the quality of the opponents, two games in high altitude, and a game on a short week against a club that seems to get away with all their transgressions and also happens to be the second best team in the AFC.

Notify Florio if you care to, he may be interested.

 

[Tony2046]

OK. I've added all the bye weeks to the schedule and highlighted the Away Games. The bye weeks are in red. I will add TNF games tomorrow if I get a chance.

In my opinion there is plenty to complain about for many teams. No schedule is perfect.

A few things I hate in a schedule are:

1. A MNF > Sun game > TNF or 3 games in Ten Days.
2. Two Away games to open the season. I think home field advantage is far greater during the first three or four games.
3. Two Away games to close the season. Home field advantage is easier to wrap up HFA if necessary.
4. Playing in Denver on short rest or if Denver is coming off of a Bye week.
5. East Coast > West Coast > East Coast games.

Looks like they've bypassed most of those obstacles. But to do so it looks like they've landed a 5 road game in 6 weeks scenario. Yikes.

I am curious about the two high altitude games in a row. I'm not sure if it's beneficial to play those games consecutively or if it would be better split apart. IOW: Is Bye week > High Altitude Denver > High Altitude Mexico > Miami Home better than a Bye week > High Alt > Home > High Alt type schedule.


Anyways if you see something that needs cleaning up or added please let me know.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

If anyone wants take advantage of a weak line, the Patriots -7 vs Kansas City will not hold up. Provided no major injuries (both teams are equally susceptible), I expect this line to move at least two points to -9 if not -9.5.

The Patriots get approximately 4 points playing at home due to their huge HFA. A -7 spread implies they are only 3 points better than the Chiefs on a neutral field. They were 3 points better than the Falcons in the SB on a neutral field, the Patriots are improved, and the Chiefs are maybe as good as last year.

I am not saying the Patriots will cover a -7 spread, but I believe the bettors will move the line. I thought the line would come out closer to -10.

On a related note, Kansas City is my pick for a major regression this year. I see them as similar to Cincinnati last season. They have had a winning record four years in a row with three playoff appearances but major disappointment, and I can't imagine the team is truly optimistic about competing for a championship. I see their postseason failures as the ultimate undoing of their confidence and overachieving level of play. Alex Smith has gone from a game manager to a liability, and they cannot continue to win consistently with defensive and special teams touchdowns (see 2006 Chicago Bears.). Add in that if you're not improving, you are regressing, and the Chiefs have not improved this offseason, along with a very competitive division. Simply put, sustaining a winning record each year for 5+ seasons is almost impossible without an outstanding quarterback.

 

[deroc5050]

12-4 lock it in. The Pats don't seem to have an easy schedule to me. But every season is different who the hell knows.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Overall there are nine 1:00 games and only two late afternoon games (though that can always change). Somewhat surprised that there are not more 4:00 games.

@Tunescribe will like that.



edit: here's the Gillette Stadium breakdown:
(6) 1:00 games
(2) night games

One downside for season ticket holders is that there are home games on both Christmas Eve and New Years Eve. Aside from holiday preparations, HFA will (hopefully) be all wrapped up by then, making these meaningless games.

Reiss had a different viewpoint on that, how lots of fans who grew up in the region but live elsewhere may be able to go see a game, or have multiple chances to see a game, if they're visiting family for the holidays.

New England Patriots' schedule is fan-friendly in multiple ways

 

[goheels22002]

This schedule is the very definition of deck -stacking.

Par for the course...

Amendola, Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell, Cooks, Gronkowski, Lewis, White, Develin, Gillislee, and Burkhardt catching passes from the GOAT is the very definition of deck-stacking. And also par for the course.

That's without mentioning the defense and the coaching staff.

The schedule is what it is. The end of the season should be against teams out of the playoff picture, except maybe the Steelers. Pittsburgh is heading into a season with a QB who almost retired because he sick of being hurt all the time. They may be eliminated from contention by Week 15.

 

[FortressX]

Overall there are nine 1:00 games and only two late afternoon games (though that can always change). Somewhat surprised that there are not more 4:00 games.

I am very surprised the Texans game is at 1PM.
The NFL is hyping this game on their schedule page.
They are forcing fans down there to watch this at 11AM.
Can't be flexed either.

Maybe the Steelers game can be a battle in the snow ?


OT:The double headers on Saturday are interesting.

 

[brdmaverick]

Like, say, weeks 2-4 of the 2016 season...

Exactly, and I know they've definitely had it in the 2014 season too.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Amendola, Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell, Cooks, Gronkowski, Lewis, White, Develin, Gillislee, and Burkhardt catching passes from the GOAT is the very definition of deck-stacking. And also par for the course.

That's without mentioning the defense and the coaching staff.

The schedule is what it is. The end of the season should be against teams out of the playoff picture, except maybe the Steelers. Pittsburgh is heading into a season with a QB who almost retired because he sick of being hurt all the time. They may be eliminated from contention by Week 15.

It's the team's job to be great.

It's the league's job to screw the Pats and teams that have success the following year.

Some call it creating parity and creating a competitive landscape.

I call it sports socialism, entitlement and ********

 

[qbno12]

It looks like NFL put in a lot of effort to schedule Pats games first and arranged rest of the teams' schedule after that.

 

[The Boston Patriot]

Bring it on! 15-1 (maybe 16-0) against whatever they throw at the team.

 

[SalemPats]

Another slap in the face to Oakland fans, they lose the Patriots game.

 

[fightingirish595]

Probably been mentioned already just a few things though. We play all of our NFC games in the first 7 weeks. I believe our afc west games are done after week 11. 5 out of our last 6 are against the division, but I still think the first half of the schedule is more difficult, which may actually give us an advantage.... we play the dolphins 2 times in 3 weeks and the bills 2 times in 4 weeks. If the pats have home field locked up and the jets need to lose week 17 to get the first pick, I may actually be okay with the jets winning that game. Without even looking at home and away, I bet that's an away game

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Pitt's a short week, as the last of 3 straight road games.
Denver's a nighttime start after a trip west that puts the team a mile above sea level.

As I said, at least with Denver, it's after the bye. That's about the most gentle screwing that matchup was going to get.

I wonder if the Patriots will go from Denver to Mexico City to both minimize travel back and forth and possibly get somewhat acclimated to being way up high (as Mexico City's stadium is 7200 ft above sea level).

 

[PatsFan2]

Thursday Night Games except for for the First Game of the year should be Banned. Five Division games in 2nd half of season favor us 100%. Glad we play that Tough NFC South early on having the two better Teams @ our Home Carolina and Atlanta. Injuries is the Great equalizer but if we stay Healthy enough we are going to be difficult to beat. Right now I predict 13-3 #1 seed in AFC.

 

[XLIX]

People are making way too big of a deal about playing teams off their bye weeks. Over the last 5 years, the winning percentage of teams coming off (regular season) byes is something like 51%, so it's just not any sort of huge advantage.

Last year for the Sea-NE game, NE was coming off a bye and Seattle was coming off a *Monday* night game then had to fly 3,000+ miles. People in this forum would absolutely lose their minds about how the league was deliberately screwing the Patriots if that situation was reversed.

 

[PatsDeb]

I wonder if the Patriots will go from Denver to Mexico City to both minimize travel back and forth and possibly get somewhat acclimated to being way up high (as Mexico City's stadium is 7200 ft above sea level).

For all we know they might have asked that those games be scheduled back-to-back for this very reason. Might as well take one long trip west into high altitude rather than two.

 

[PatsFan2]

I wonder if the Patriots will go from Denver to Mexico City to both minimize travel back and forth and possibly get somewhat acclimated to being way up high (as Mexico City's stadium is 7200 ft above sea level).

I am on the phone with BB right now telling him about your practical suggestion.