Seattle is in a bit of an odd place right now. I don’t consider Seattle’s window shut by any means, but last year was the first indication that it could be closing. This was their second straight season where they were unable to get to 11 wins and
their first year in which their efficiency numbers over at Football Outsiders took a pretty deep dive– dropping from their four year average DVOA of 37 to under 9. Granted that fall wasn’t so much the fault of the defense, but it may have been a signal that it is about time to change things up.
Seattle’s success was built upon great drafts for the first few years that Pete Carroll was brought in to run the franchise. From 2010 to 2012 their draft picks produced multiple starters who have been selected to over 20 Pro Bowls. Their top picks became household names- Sherman, Earl Thomas, Russell Wilson, KJ Wright, Kam Chancellor, Bobby Wagner- and helped carry the team to a tremendous run. But in recent years that has been lacking. Since 2013 they have produced minimal starters, and only one Seahawks draft pick has made the Pro Bowl.
Seattle employs what I refer to as a superstar contract strategy. They pay big money for big players and don’t let guys they want to keep walk away. Right now I have their spending estimates on a per year basis to be third in the NFL and considering most of their players were signed a few years ago that is probably tops in the league on an inflated basis. It’s imperative when you use that type of strategy that you replenish or supplement the old with the young and thus far Seattle has failed to do that.
That puts the Seahawks at a crossroads right now. Some of this is their own doing and some is just the state of the league. Seattle, when they extended many of their star players, opted to sign somewhat shorter term contracts than other teams normally would have done. They also have set what I think is a bad precedent of opening contracts up to some form of renegotiation at an early date. Salaries have continued to rise to unprecedented levels around the NFL.
If you are Seattle what do you do? Do you opt into another set of contracts with what are now aging players or see if you can get something very valuable for the players that you may see some risk in signing? It is not an easy decision because Seattle doesn’t have the great youth to just jump in and take positions over for the aging players. These are problems that are faced by many teams that have faded out of the picture like the Ravens and the Giants a few years back. Without the young talent a successful team can become pretty old in the blink of an eye and then it becomes hard to get better.
