The 3-year transition Brady/Garoppollo theory - is there any merit?

[Simpelton]

My personal opinion is that BB can't dare to trade Garoppolo until training camp at the very earliest. We'll see if I'm right or not, but I can't think any general manager would be entirely comfortable going into th season with a 40 year old incumbent and no challenger behind him no matter who the incumbent is. Maybe if they thought the playoff window was closing anyway and mediocricy was guaranteed after the guy left it'd be one thing, and they could let Brady fade at his own speed, but it's pretty clear that BB fully intends to contend indefinitely, and he probably has the roster to do it as long as quarterback is not an outright liability.

I'm fully convinced Belichick intends to cut ties with Brady years before Brady himself is ready to go. Whenever the plug is pulled, be it 1 year, 2, 3, or 5, or later, Brady will think he has some football life left in him when Belichick cuts him off -- he's just that kind of competitor, he is NOT going to go gently into that good night.

The only question in my mind is, who the intended replacement is, and how many years, and will Brady still think he has enough in the tank when it happens to play a season or two for another franchise, the way his onetime idol Joe Montana did?

 

[Huckleberry1]

This horse is beaten. Acknowledged...may have been way off about the recent moves being an all-in for Brady. Much of the rest of the post is essentially what Florio's article suggests. Doesn't matter...imperfect post, perhaps. Glad that we are all in this discussion now and realizing that the team MAY very well be strongly considering a future with Jimmy G.

That's your conclusion, not everyone's, nice try though.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Since the people looking to dump Brady for Garrapolo have been entirely incapable of supporting their position with anything other than chanting " Kellerman's Cliff" over and over and over and over, here's one thing they may actually want to consider, as the actual facts just bounce off of them like rain does off of a duck. There is one thing Belichick values over everything else in his players:

AVAILABILITY


Aside from being the greatest player in history and playing like that once again this season Tom Brady can actually play every snap every season. Jimmy Garrapolo didn't make it through two games and couldn't answer the bell when they fully expected him to. Getting rid of the best player in football to take your chances on an unproven backup who can't play a month, let alone a season, is quite simply the stupidest idea this board has ever entertained, and if Belichick actually did it then it would mean he's lost his faculties and is too old to coach.

You guys should come back to this 4-5 years from now, you may by that point have some actual evidence of slippage in Brady's play , Kellerman's Cliff may work as s Steaming Hot Take but it has no basis in reality.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I'll bet Belichick puts far more faith in Brady's ability to be a top QB for 4-5 more years than he does the cliff that you and Max Kellerman keep bleating about.

You obviously are, and I admire your tencity. But reality intrudes and Belichick is an ultimate realist. He discarded many future HOF players when he could have tried to get another year out of them. Even taking slightly lesss for Cassel, so as to help Vrabel eke out a last high paycheck, and Obrien to start his program.

Nothing is forever and Belichick knows this.

 

[sb1]

We'll see. He has the inside track that's all that can be known for now

I am positive that Belichick has absolutely no intention whatsoever to hold onto Garoppolo if he doesn't at least hold out at least some possibility that he might need him to start games.

You are quite correct that Garoppolo has no business being content to rot on the sidelines. He will be here to steal Brady's job on any way he can, and if Belichick wasn't at least theoretically comfortable with that idea he will trade Garoppolo as soon as the right deal comes along -- and given that to my memory the Cassell trade happen pretty quickly, my personal sense of things is that if that sort of deal was in the works it would have happened by now.

I'd say the latter was because KC actually offered a high second for Cassell. The Pats would have been foolish to hold out for more. It's Matt Cassel not Aaron Rodgers. And yet he did play the whole year unlike JG. If some team wanted to blow the Pats out of the water with an offer for JG he would have been out the door.

That hasn't happened and Im not surprised to be honest. Other teams know this is a guy with only 90 minutes of meaningful football experience against two not so great teams and couldn't make it further. They see the tape and see a guy who played well but didn't blow anyone away. And they know it's much more likely JG will have more value to the Pats than to them.

I wouldn't read into the lack of a quick trade any deeper than that.

 

[Simpelton]

You've read enough. If the price point is that high rather than something reasonable to the needs of the acquiring team, and BB was not interested in bending on that price point in order to grab as much as he can in a reasonable trade, and this is the trade scenario for a bench player who's about to become super expensive, which is a thing Belichick usually avoids like the plague, then BB is sending a signal that he does have plans for Garoppolo, that he does NOT see Garoppolo as a bench player by the end of year 2, and that tells you all you need to know.

Because you guys are dead on correct. Paying Garoppolo to hold a clipboard doesn't make sense for the franchise or for Garoppolo. So if BB is being difficult on the trade front at a time when he's being so aggressive in other areas, it's because he doesn't see Garoppolo as a guy holding a clipboard by the time he gets expensive. Or at least sees that as a possibility.

We'll see after draft day. My personal speculation is that Garoppolo is a Patriot on Opening Day. And that Brady is going to spend the rest of his Patriots career in perpetual fight-for-my-job mode. And knowing Brady, it will force him to rise to new heights -- if he can.

 

[sb1]

You've read enough. If the price point is that high rather than something reasonable to the needs of the acquiring team, and BB was not interested in bending in order to grab as much as he could for a bench player who's about to become super expensive, then BB is sending a signal that he does have plans for Garoppolo, that he does NOT see Garoppolo as a bench player by the end of year 2, and that tells you all you need to know.

Because you guys are dead on correct. Paying Garoppolo to hold a clipboard doesn't make sense for the franchise or for Garoppolo. So if BB is being difficult on the trade front at a time when he's being so aggressive in other areas, it's because he doesn't see Garoppolo as a guy holding a clipboard by the time he gets expensive. Or at least sees that as a possibility.

We'll see after draft day. My personal speculation is that Garoppolo is a Patriot on Opening Day. And that Brady is going to spend the rest of his Patriots career in perpetual fight-for-my-job mode. And knowing Brady, it will force him to rise to new heights -- if he can.

Nobody knows what BB is thinking. He could just hang on to him as the backup and then let him walk in 2018. It could very easily be the fact that JG was indeed drafted as the heir to Brady to replace him once he looked cooked but since that hasn't happened, plans changed and perhaps Bill now has his eye on the 2018 class and some very good QB options there as Brady's heir.

Or you could be completely right in your assessment. We will see.

 

[sb1]

The CBS Sports mock has JG to the Browns for #12, 33 and 52 this year and another second in 2018.

If that has any semblance of reality- see ya Jimmy and thanks!

 

[moosekill]

Honestly we don't actually know what if anything has been offered to the Patriots for JG, and for that matter, we have no idea what the Patriots have asked for and what if anything they have rejected. This is all complete speculation, trying to draw conclusions from speculation is foolish.

My personal feeling is Bill has a value set on JG being the backup QB of the Patriots, if he is offered more in trade value than he feels JG is worth as a backup QB he will take the offer. But I am basing this on the assumption that Brady hasn't told Bill when he is going to retire, and if he has that knowledge, it isn't going to be in the next 2 years.

 

[Rob0729]

The CBS Sports mock has JG to the Browns for #12, 33 and 52 this year and another second in 2018.

If that has any semblance of reality- see ya Jimmy and thanks!

I think that Cleveland will make one last all out blitz to get Garoppolo around a week or so before the draft. That is when we will really know if the Pats are really serious about keeping him.

I expect the Browns to make a trade offer like this if not this trade offer.

 

[AzPatsFan]

It was Brady who set 4-5 years as his timeline, those citing it here are doing so based upon the facts in evidence, e.g... getting better each of the last 4 seasons, going 14-1 with 28 TD's and only 2 interceptions last season, as well as leading the greatest comeback in history and another Lombardi/SB MVP just 5 weeks ago. We also cite his fanatical devotion to taking care of himself like no other QB before him and the results in terms of performance and durability. In short we believe in Brady because he has earned and the results prove that.

On the other hand his detractors cannot point to one fact regarding Brady's performances or durability to support their position that the Patriots should transition to Jimmy Garrapolo, and that's what this entire discussion is about, not the strawman about contingency planning, which everyone agrees on.

WRONG ! Wrong. I can point to more than one fact. Had Brady not been able to reach back and produce excellence for the 4th Quarter, the discussion here would be how Brady is in steep decline, and should consider retirement. Brady for Quarters 1-3 and especially for Q2 was terrible.

His performance was just what you would expect from a declining QB, poor periods with an occasional rally for a short period of time. Brady is the GOAT and his magnificent Q4 and OT are a magnificent statement of his QB mastery. But 5 years ago that would have been 4 full quarters not 1 in 4.

 

[AzPatsFan]

My personal opinion is that BB can't dare to trade Garoppolo until training camp at the very earliest. We'll see if I'm right or not, but I can't think any general manager would be entirely comfortable going into th season with a 40 year old incumbent and no challenger behind him no matter who the incumbent is. Maybe if they thought the playoff window was closing anyway and mediocricy was guaranteed after the guy left it'd be one thing, and they could let Brady fade at his own speed, but it's pretty clear that BB fully intends to contend indefinitely, and he probably has the roster to do it as long as quarterback is not an outright liability.

I'm fully convinced Belichick intends to cut ties with Brady years before Brady himself is ready to go. Whenever the plug is pulled, be it 1 year, 2, 3, or 5, or later, Brady will think he has some football life left in him when Belichick cuts him off -- he's just that kind of competitor, he is NOT going to go gently into that good night.


Brady firmly believes as teh poet says, "Do not go ...." His own father agrees about his personality and psyche. He, if given the opportunity, will go out as Willie Mays did, a pathetic shell of his former greatness.

The only question in my mind is, who the intended replacement is, and how many years, and will Brady still think he has enough in the tank when it happens to play a season or two for another franchise, the way his onetime idol Joe Montana did?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I've done a complete 180 on this topic since learning BB had apparently rejected big offers for the Browns for him as well as our current cap situation. If BB won't trade a backup QB for the 12th overall pick, he believes he's the future IMO.

2017: Brady age 40, Jimmy final year
2018: Brady age 41, Jimmy franchised

BB hoping a 6th ring would incentivize Brady to ride off into the sunset in 2017 & 2018? Zolak mentioned how Brady could retire after a 6th ring.

Not sure what the plan would be if Brady is playing at an elite level at the end of 2018 and still wants to play.

EDIT: Reread your theory. So a potential Favre or Manning team breakup?

I don't claim to know the plan with Brady or how he would handle it if it went down this way. Farve's breakup was ugly; Manning's was not, at least on the surface. I personally couldn't see Brady pulling a Favre going to the media to whine and then trying to stick it to the Pats by going to a divisional rival, but who knows? Maybe Brady would just retire and be glad his body isn't broken, so he can have a normal life lost-football, even if his play doesn't decline. I don't sense Brady wants to prove he can win outside New England. I think he wants to be a lifelong Patriot, however long that lasts.

 

[Huckleberry1]

You obviously are, and I admire your tencity. But reality intrudes and Belichick is an ultimate realist. He discarded many future HOF players when he could have tried to get another year out of them. Even taking slightly lesss for Cassel, so as to help Vrabel eke out a last high paycheck, and Obrien to start his program.

Nothing is forever and Belichick knows this.

He's never discarded a player when they were playing at the level Brady plays at, and once again none of you have provided any evidence at all of deterioration in his game, you just keep moving the goalposts back and back and back , and insisting that Kellerman's Cliff is coming, but can't support that with anything at all. The exact same arguments were made in early 2014 by many of the same people, and like Borges and CHB you keep pretending you are right even though you have been proven wrong over and over again, and all Brady has done since then is take them to 3 AFC Championship games and win two more Super Bowls and SB MVP's. But that's OK, he still sucks just because you say so.

 

[Huckleberry1]

WRONG ! Wrong. I can point to more than one fact. Had Brady not been able to reach back and produce excellence for the 4th Quarter, the discussion here would be how Brady is in steep decline, and should consider retirement. Brady for Quarters 1-3 and especially for Q2 was terrible.

His performance was just what you would expect from a declining QB, poor periods with an occasional rally for a short period of time. Brady is the GOAT and his magnificent Q4 and OT are a magnificent statement of his QB mastery. But 5 years ago that would have been 4 full quarters not 1 in 4.

Games are four quarters long you moron. He led the greatest comeback in NFL history and all you do is sh.t on him . He went 14-1 with 28 touchdowns and 2 interceptions and won another Lombardi. You are without any question as dumb as a rock. Off to ignore you go, I'm done with your idiocy.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

WRONG ! Wrong. I can point to more than one fact. Had Brady not been able to reach back and produce excellence for the 4th Quarter, the discussion here would be how Brady is in steep decline, and should consider retirement. Brady for Quarters 1-3 and especially for Q2 was terrible.

His performance was just what you would expect from a declining QB, poor periods with an occasional rally for a short period of time. Brady is the GOAT and his magnificent Q4 and OT are a magnificent statement of his QB mastery. But 5 years ago that would have been 4 full quarters not 1 in 4.

Brady must have aged tremendously from his performance against Pittsburgh merely two weeks before that game. I've heard this same silly argument for years now, every time a QB over 35 gets eliminated from the playoffs.

 

[Huckleberry1]

The Patriots needed Jimmy Garrapolo to play four games and he couldn't make it through two, and his sycophants want Belichick to ditch the GOAT QB who is also one of the most durable quarterback' to play the game so their binky can take over for him. It's completely idiotic.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

WRONG ! Wrong. I can point to more than one fact. Had Brady not been able to reach back and produce excellence for the 4th Quarter, the discussion here would be how Brady is in steep decline, and should consider retirement. Brady for Quarters 1-3 and especially for Q2 was terrible.

His performance was just what you would expect from a declining QB, poor periods with an occasional rally for a short period of time. Brady is the GOAT and his magnificent Q4 and OT are a magnificent statement of his QB mastery. But 5 years ago that would have been 4 full quarters not 1 in 4.

Are you sure about that? I understand the general "point" you're trying to make, but quite frankly, you couldn't have picked a stupider example.

5 years ago was the 2011 season, where the season ended in the Super Bowl after poor periods with an occasional rally for a short period of time. He had a better RAT this year than in 2011 too.

But back to that 2011 Super Bowl for a brief moment. In that game, Brady had back-to-back TD drives to end the 2nd/start the 3rd quarter, but other than that, wasn't much else going on. I don't want to dive into it too much because quite frankly, it brings up some angry moments (****ing hell Wes, catch the ****ing ball).

So to claim 5 years ago he was much better, well, it's probably the worst example to try and illustrate that "point." Try something else.

 

[Simpelton]

The CBS Sports mock has JG to the Browns for #12, 33 and 52 this year and another second in 2018.

If that has any semblance of reality- see ya Jimmy and thanks!

yeah that haul is definitely worth rolling the dice on finding another Brady replacement. That said it is hard to deny that there would be a sizeable risk involved. As much as Max Kellerman is a buffoon it really is true that TB12 isn't getting any younger

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The Patriots needed Jimmy Garrapolo to play four games and he couldn't make it through two, and his sycophants want Belichick to ditch the GOAT QB who is also one of the most durable quarterback' to play the game so their binky can take over for him. It's completely idiotic.

I created this thread, and I can guarantee there is no bigger fan of Tom Brady than me. I worship the man. This thread isn't about what we want or what we think is best, it's about what we think the Patriots will do in their long-term interest. Who exactly is a sycophant for Jimmy G? He is 15 years younger than Brady and in those six quarters looked exceptional. You are not weighing the age difference enough into your thinking here. If the Patriots thought he wasn't durable and isn't a potential long-term option, he would have already been traded. They see him in practice every day.

I am not claiming to know that they plan to replace Brady with him...I just think the idea should be given a lot of credence. I suspect the Patriots grapple with the same questions as us. If Jimmy G. looks like a capable championship winning quarterback, this is a very sticky situation.