The 3-year transition Brady/Garoppollo theory - is there any merit?

[patsfan13]

You obviously are, and I admire your tencity. But reality intrudes and Belichick is an ultimate realist. He discarded many future HOF players when he could have tried to get another year out of them. Even taking slightly lesss for Cassel, so as to help Vrabel eke out a last high paycheck, and Obrien to start his program.

Nothing is forever and Belichick knows this.

THe REALITY is that Brady's measurements of strength ect have IMPROVED for each of the last 3 years IOW Brady was stronger, faster at 39 than at 35,

You can be sure that BB is aware of THAT. Which is why Brady and the PAts have been discussing a 3 year extension to his current contract.

Perhaps we should wait until Brady starts declining in some measurable way before thrwoing the GOAT under the bus.

How bout if Brady at 45 has the same measurables at 36 and still wants to play is that when you cut him? IIRC he was OK at 36, please correct me if I am wrong.

 

[Soliel]

Id be willing to bet any amount that Brady is not dumped for jg...not for at least two years.

I believe brady retires from the pats then becomes a qb coach or office type person. Call me a sentimental guy here..its cool.. Its just that there is no prescident at all to compare his situation to. Not even montana. Not Bradshaw... Now..all that said, i keep reminding myself that even mj wound up off of the bulls but its just not the same

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Please, make this stop!

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Id be willing to bet any amount that Brady is not dumped for jg...not for at least two years.

That is exactly the premise of this thread...that JG may replace TB in 2 years, and the Patriots will keep JG at all costs, including the franchise tag.

 

[Simpelton]

THe REALITY is that Brady's measurements of strength ect have IMPROVED for each of the last 3 years IOW Brady was stronger, faster at 39 than at 35,

You can be sure that BB is aware of THAT. Which is why Brady and the PAts have been discussing a 3 year extension to his current contract.J

Perhaps we should wait until Brady starts declining in some measurable way before thrwoing the GOAT under the bus.

How bout if Brady at 45 has the same measurables at 36 and still wants to play is that when you cut him? IIRC he was OK at 36, please correct me if I am wrong.

It's amazing, every time someone points out that the end is eventually coming, the immediate response from what I can best refer to as the Brady immortalists is the end isn't here yet.

You.... do realize that that is not an exclusive argument yes? That the end can be drawing near and not here, both at the same time? And that that is kind of the point the Brady pragmatists are trying to raise in the first place?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

It's amazing, every time someone points out that the end is eventually coming, the immediate response from what I can best refer to as the Brady immortalists is the end isn't here yet.

You.... do realize that that is not an exclusive argument yes? That the end can be drawing near and not here, both at the same time? And that that is kind of the point the Brady pragmatists are trying to raise in the first place?

It bothers me that some of us are considered anti-Brady or not believing that Brady will remain a great quarterback for several, if not more, years...simply because we think the Patriots might think it's better to feel secure in their quarterback through 2030, if they really believe in Garoppollo. I'll say it again: Tom Brady is my favorite athlete of all-time, by far and away. I also have learned that Adam Schefter is almost never wrong, and the Patriots won't trade Garoppollo for any price. That should say something. Maybe they are wrestling with the transition idea, as it obviously involves variables that will change/evolve over the next few years...but I suspect right now they don't just see JG as a backup quarterback with a 1.5 games of fluky good play.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

It's amazing, every time someone points out that the end is eventually coming, the immediate response from what I can best refer to as the Brady immortalists is the end isn't here yet.

You.... do realize that that is not an exclusive argument yes? That the end can be drawing near and not here, both at the same time? And that that is kind of the point the Brady pragmatists are trying to raise in the first place?

Your point has some (minimal) validity.
We have been reading moronic The End Is Nigh for TFB posts and threads here the entire decade.
Eventually, yes, they will be true.
BFD.

 

[Soliel]

Its too bad they havent figured out brain transplants for bb and tb

 

[Soliel]

Because of hoodie black magic

 

[QuantumMechanic]

It bothers me that some of us are considered anti-Brady or not believing that Brady will remain a great quarterback for several, if not more, years...simply because we think the Patriots might think it's better to feel secure in their quarterback through 2030, if they really believe in Garoppollo.

Exactly. It flabbergasts me that people who are fans of a team who has had an amazing run under the leadership of a coach they claim is one of the best if not the best all time and who has a well-demonstrated, firm belief in "better one year too early than one year too late", suddenly get ravingly butthurt when it is suggested that said coach needs to be at the very least thinking about how to work an upcoming transition, that he shouldn't simply assume Brady's claim that he'll play 'til 45 will turn out to be true, and that he needs to weigh how many more years he thinks he'll get out of Brady vs. how many years he thinks he'll get out of the replacement and if he believes he has the replacement on the roster or has to acquire the replacement.

I was a Celtics fan in the 70s, 80s, and 90s and I don't want to see NE go through what the Celtics did in the 90s because of hanging on to aging stars too long.

 

[FoxboroFlyer]

Exactly. It flabbergasts me that people who are fans of a team who has had an amazing run under the leadership of a coach they claim is one of the best if not the best all time and who has a well-demonstrated, firm belief in "better one year too early than one year too late", suddenly get ravingly butthurt when it is suggested that said coach needs to be at the very least thinking about how to work an upcoming transition, that he shouldn't simply assume Brady's claim that he'll play 'til 45 will turn out to be true, and that he needs to weigh how many more years he thinks he'll get out of Brady vs. how many years he thinks he'll get out of the replacement and if he believes he has the replacement on the roster or has to acquire the replacement.

I was a Celtics fan in the 70s, 80s, and 90s and I don't want to see NE go through what the Celtics did in the 90s because of hanging on to aging stars too long.

I agree completely!
But TB being the GOAT makes it a sticky situation, and understandably so.

 

[Simpelton]

I agree completely!
But TB being the GOAT makes it a sticky situation, and understandably so.

It's Belichick's job to deal with sticky situations. In BB I trust

 

[Simpelton]

I was a Celtics fan in the 70s, 80s, and 90s and I don't want to see NE go through what the Celtics did in the 90s because of hanging on to aging stars too long.

Exactly. There is a danger in hanging on too long. If you have a potentially viable replacement in hand now, the only reason not to contemplate transition plans I'd if you really like the idea of SUCKING FOR YEARS when the old stalwart's clock runs out.

Do you realize how hard it is to find a good starting quarterback? There are never enough to go round and we think we have a good to great one in the wingss right now. Will that be true whenever Brady finally decides he's done? I'm sure the Pats will try but the odds are HEAVILY against it.

There is not always an opportunity to grab a proper replacement quarterback on the fly, hell, that's why teams are rumored to be backing up the truck for Garoppolo, so if you have what looks like a validly good replacement and your star is 40 you CANNOT AFFORD to be whistling past the graveyard

 

[kennyb]

I doubt bb knows exactly what he'll do. He thinks jg is great insurance so he'll keep him for a year. If brady falls apart or wans to retire, he moves forward with jg. If brady looks great, he'll figure something out-maybe franchise jg and trade him, maybe let him go for a comp.

Contingencies, bb is trying to plan for them. But he can't predict them. And how can he "know" JG is "IT"? Nick foles was it and now he's just a backup? Matt flynn? Osweiler? Elway a hof qb, had a huge contract offer for osweiler. He went to BOB's texans. BOB is a qb coach at one point. He didn't see his flaws after one year of play. JG has played 6 quarters of play.

So bb has decided already to move on in exactly 2 more years? Suppose brady wins two superbowls? BB dumps him? Or let me guess franchises jg for 30m or so and then moves on? I think that's doubtful there's a specific plan.

 

[Simpelton]

I partially disagree because I think there are several plans. One thing is for sure Belichick has devoted a fair bit of thought to this, a lot more than any of us have, and no, he isn't simply going to take Brady's word for it

 

[AzPatsFan]

Don't understand the precise cap #s for JAG in 2018. Miguel has said that any deal would put something over a quarter of the cap into just the QB position alone which he feels is untenable as Brady has agreed to the philosophy that the QB eats 1/8th of the cap in order to field a contender. If I misinterpreted what he said, my bad.

I think the feeling is "Consistently" you can't, but you can and did on occasion like when they paid Revis 17 million one year when the CAP was smaller. The Clots consistently did and fielded competitive teams with not quite enough.

 

[patsfan13]

It's amazing, every time someone points out that the end is eventually coming, the immediate response from what I can best refer to as the Brady immortalists is the end isn't here yet.

You.... do realize that that is not an exclusive argument yes? That the end can be drawing near and not here, both at the same time? And that that is kind of the point the Brady pragmatists are trying to raise in the first place?

Well yes the end is coming for all of us.

However what makes you think that the end is in 3 years when Brady's MEASURABLES have IMPROVED in each of the last 3 years?

Why not 4 or 5 years before he declines?

What objective data do you wish to present, other than Max Kellerman fantasies? or your Jimmy G love?

 

[AzPatsFan]

To the folks who think Kraft or BB will trade Brady... remember the fan reaction to Kraft not standing four-square behind Brady during deflategate. That's barely a sniff of what would happen if Kraft allowed BB to trade Brady. He is not Bledsoe. He is not Bernie Kosar. He retires in New England by mutual consent of coach, owner, and GOAT, when they all agree the time is right. And not until. And not elsewhere.

But maybe not as the starter...

 

[Gronk]

What about Belichick tells people he would pay top tier money to JG before he's demonstrated that he's a top tier QB? Every other thread here is full of adulation for his thriftiness and sharp eye for value. Franchising JG (or giving him a contract big enough to keep him waiting in the wings while he sees plentiful starting jobs he could have with a base salary somewhere around $15m) doesnt really jive with that mindset to me. Yes he needs a new QB at some point, but until he can't field a team that is a SB contender - where you can make the "rebuild" argument - or until JG is the BEST QB on the roster to lead the team to a SB win - which could legitimately be another 4-5 years....then I dont see how you make the change.

Most of my confusion about the pro-JG side of this argument is that its often laced with hyperbole about the "next 10-15 years". We dont know who this guy is, not really. He could be the next Brady, sure. He could also be more like Nick Foles and capable of posting a great season but unable to sustain. He could also be the next Tony Romo who's got all the skills and (arguably) a lot of the intangibles you want to see, bvut can't stay on the field. Brady's durability is the most unique element in his skillset.

Cue somebody saying " all it takes is one bad hit"....well, yeah. Jimmy took that shot in week 2 last year. His age doesn't make him invincible anymore than Toms age makes him disposable. We can talk about the next 10-15 years after he's played 10-15 games. Hell, 10-15 quarters.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

or until JG is the BEST QB on the roster to lead the team to a SB win - which could legitimately be another 4-5 years....then I dont see how you make the change.

That's what I firmly believe is wrong. Sure, in a vacuum you can wait until Brady is no longer the best QB on the team before you change, but things don't operate in a vacuum.

Leave JG out of it. For some reason people are too spun up to even consider him rationally one way or the other. So this is about Unspecified Potential Replacement (UPR).

To me it all comes down to timing. In an ideal world you have UPR on the roster and all the contracts are aligned so that when Brady hangs it up or is clearly slipping you can just hand things over to UPR. But the world is seldom so ideal, even if when one is taking affirmative steps to make everything line up like that.

Unless you have that perfect timing, if the coach believes UPR is the guy then at some point he has to move on even if Brady is still the better QB because 10 years of UPR is better for the team than (say) two more years of still-better-than-UPR Brady followed by zero years of UPR (for example he's gone because his contract is over and he's not willing to be a backup anymore).