The 3-year transition Brady/Garoppollo theory - is there any merit?

[Simpelton]

There is some merit to this idea but I for one doubt the concept is that rigid. I suspect Belichick is giving himself options and simply not selling out on Brady immortality unless he has to.

We can afford to live on faith when it comes to Brady because we're fans, it's pretty much what we do. HE can't afford to do that, he's got to hedge his bets and get the team to the playoffs and through the Superbowl however he can, no matter what happens. Clearly one of the things that could happen at any time right now is an ambush by The Cliff, so he has to spare some resources into countering that threat. Right now one of those resources is named Jimmy Garoppolo, and he's not going to take the risk imposed by losing that asset if he doesn't have to -- not when the who,e season could turn on having or not having that asset.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

There is some merit to this idea but I for one doubt the concept is that rigid. I suspect Belichick is giving himself options and simply not selling out on Brady immortality unless he has to.

We can afford to live on faith when it comes to Brady because we're fans, it's pretty much what we do. HE can't afford to do that,

This this this!

I guarantee Belichick isn't all spun up with Ivan-esque fantasies about Brady being immortal and unquestionably playing at a top level until he's 45 or more.

 

[Clonamery]

This this this!

I guarantee Belichick isn't all spun up with Ivan-esque fantasies about Brady being immortal and unquestionably playing at a top level until he's 45 or more.

No, probably not but he's also not going to throw Brady out with the bath water like way too many here have suggested...

 

[Huckleberry1]

This this this!

I guarantee Belichick isn't all spun up with Ivan-esque fantasies about Brady being immortal and unquestionably playing at a top level until he's 45 or more.

I'll bet Belichick puts far more faith in Brady's ability to be a top QB for 4-5 more years than he does the cliff that you and Max Kellerman keep bleating about.

 

[Huckleberry1]

And my support for Brady is actually based upon Brady, his performance over the past four seasons, and the way he has worked and trained for this part of his career, whereas Quantum and his buddy the aptly named Simpleton are basing there view on anything but Brady, and that's because there is nothing about Brady and his performance that indicates the bottom is about to drop out.

The fact of the matter is that Brady's performances have been getting better over the past four years, not worse. The fact of the matter is that unlike pretty much every other QB in football Brady hasn't missed any football over the past 8 years due to injuries, whereas his back up didn't make it through two games. Brady is as durable as a QB gets and despite a big advantage in age it was the young QB who hasn't shown the ability to stay on the field for a full season. And the fact of the matter is that Brady has been training every day for the past ten years to be ready to play at a high level at an age where other QB's never considered playing at a high level. He loves to compete and he loves to play football, but Brady also trained to show his doubters yet again that they are wrong about him and that he can play 2-3 years longer than Warren Moon and the other long lasting QB's did.

That's why I'm betting on Brady, but Simpleton and Quantum can bet on Max all they want, we'll see who ends up being right?

 

[Simpelton]

No, probably not but he's also not going to throw Brady out with the bath water like way too many here have suggested...

Decline is rarely uniform. I suspect that whenever it happens, Brady's last year in New England will be marked by a few games that are vintage Brady -- followed by an increasing number of uncharacteristically poor performances. What that means is that no matter when you cut ties with TB12, there will be enough mixed signals that a lot of fans are going to second-guess the decision.

Speaking of which -- how about that latest Superbowl. Full of TB12 mixed signals, wouldn't you say? We were pretty fortunate that vintage Brady re-emerged in the 4th quarter. But we wouldn't have needed it if he hadn't been definitely-not-vintage-Brady in the first 3. juuuuuuust saying. Just because Kellerman's an idiot doesn't mean that TB12 is not declining. Well done to TB12 for putting the team on his back and atoning like a madman, but Brady in his prime doesn't put the team in a hole like that in the first place.

I know for a fact that Belichick has no intention whatsoever to risk a sudden drop in ability by Brady suddenly tanking an entire year of Patriots football if he can avoid it. He rode Brady to the top, but no franchise in the world will ride anyone, even Brady, to the bottom again if they can avoid it. One of the reasons I'm completely unconvinced he ever had a major interest in trading Garoppolo.

Frankly I suspect some of the urgency some fans feel in dealing Garoppolo has less to do with either JimmyG or draft picks and a lot more to do with the perfectly natural and understandable insecurity fans experience when the love of their sports-fans lives hits the tender young age of 40 and has a young hotshot sitting behind them on the depth chart.

 

[Wrath Mania]

Decline is rarely uniform. I suspect that whenever it happens, Brady's last year in New England will be marked by a few games that are vintage Brady -- followed by an increasing number of uncharacteristically poor performances. What that means is that no matter when you cut ties with TB12, there will be enough mixed signals that a lot of fans are going to second-guess the decision.

Speaking of which -- how about that latest Superbowl. Full of TB12 mixed signals, wouldn't you say? We were pretty fortunate that vintage Brady re-emerged in the 4th quarter. But we wouldn't have needed it if he hadn't been definitely-not-vintage-Brady in the first 3. juuuuuuust saying. Just because Kellerman's an idiot doesn't mean that TB12 is not declining. Well done to TB12 for putting the team on his back and atoning like a madman, but Brady in his prime doesn't put the team in a hole like that in the first place.

I know for a fact that Belichick has no intention whatsoever to risk a sudden drop in ability by Brady suddenly tanking an entire year of Patriots football if he can avoid it. He rode Brady to the top, but no franchise in the world will ride anyone, even Brady, to the bottom again if they can avoid it. One of the reasons I'm completely unconvinced he ever had a major interest in trading Garoppolo.

Frankly I suspect some of the urgency some fans feel in dealing Garoppolo has less to do with either JimmyG or draft picks and a lot more to do with the perfectly natural and understandable insecurity fans experience when the love of their sports-fans lives hits the tender young age of 40 and has a young hotshot sitting behind them on the depth chart.

Hot takes: lot of smoke, not a lot of fire. Or thought.

 

[Simpelton]

Hot take is what Kellerman is doing. He's a moron because he tried to jump out ahead of the bandwagon and wound up under it. That doesn't mean that Brady's age isn't an ongoing concern and something BB is going to plan for and insure the franchise against. That's not a hot take, just due dilligence.

 

[PatsFan37]

To the folks who think Kraft or BB will trade Brady... remember the fan reaction to Kraft not standing four-square behind Brady during deflategate. That's barely a sniff of what would happen if Kraft allowed BB to trade Brady. He is not Bledsoe. He is not Bernie Kosar. He retires in New England by mutual consent of coach, owner, and GOAT, when they all agree the time is right. And not until. And not elsewhere.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Hot takes: lot of smoke, not a lot of fire. Or thought.

It actually qualifies as a


STEAMING HOT TAKE

Max would be so proud.

 

[patsfan13]

This this this!

I guarantee Belichick isn't all spun up with Ivan-esque fantasies about Brady being immortal and unquestionably playing at a top level until he's 45 or more.

Well rest assured that BB has the record of Brady's measurables at the beginning of TC going back to the beginning of his career.

BB KNOWS that Brady's measurables have IMPROVED EACH YEAR since he was 36. Now we know that at some point the measurables will level of and then decline. Since that isn't currently the case. Why do epople want to push the GOAT off a cliff?

At least wait until he stops improving and wait until his measurables are say what they were when he was 36.

Could that be 5 years? WHY NOT?

His diet and training will sau allow him to match what his measurables were last year, perhaps he starts to decline in 2017, who is to say he won't decline to his age 36 measurables for arm strength ect for another 3 years after 2018. BTW his knowing the answers WON"T decline during that time.

MAx Kellerman will be correct in 5 or 6 years. Not in the next 3.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Hot take is what Kellerman is doing. He's a moron because he tried to jump out ahead of the bandwagon and wound up under it. That doesn't mean that Brady's age isn't an ongoing concern and something BB is going to plan for and insure the franchise against. That's not a hot take, just due dilligence.

You mean just like when all those posters made the exact same posts and predictions in 2014, when they all claimed Brady had a "couple of good years left, at most." As usual they were wrong and Brady proved it, now they have just moved the goalposts back and are making the exact same unsubstantiated claims they made two years ago all over again.

Had they gotten their way the Patriots would still have 3 Lombardi's, not 5, let's hope you guys don't get your way this time or the price is likely to be the same.

 

[zydecochris]

There is some merit to this idea but I for one doubt the concept is that rigid. I suspect Belichick is giving himself options and simply not selling out on Brady immortality unless he has to.

This this this!
I guarantee Belichick isn't all spun up with Ivan-esque fantasies about Brady being immortal and unquestionably playing at a top level until he's 45 or more.

I agree, it seems to me to be obvious that BB is trying to give himself QB options for the future, otherwise he wouldn't have spent the significant draft capital that he has on the position.

Brady's unprecedented workout regimen and diet seem to have enabled him to function at a higher level near-injury-free than ANY previous QB, he is truly one of a kind (by the way, why aren't all QB's in their late 30's rushing to Brady's house to figure out how to duplicate his methods?). I expect him to remain at a top level for the next couple of years, and maybe even longer. Nevertheless, nothing in life is guaranteed. He could maintain a high level of injury free performance for two or three years. He could suffer a big drop-off, perhaps due to a serious injury. The point is: nobody knows, not BB, not Brady, not even the Nostradamus's on this Board.

And, without the benefit of hindsight, that been the case for the last couple of years. Nobody knew before-hand that he would play so well without injury, especially given the punishment that he has taken. That is why (of course) BB has tried to give himself fall-back options in the last three years with a second and then third round pick on QB.

Whether BB trades Garoppollo or tries to keep him for a year or two, either way it will be a big gamble, based on a guess (on how long Brady will remain at his current injury free high level). It may be an educated guess, but it will still be a guess, and he may guess wrong, just like any of us. Nobody really knows for sure.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Well rest assured that BB has the record of Brady's measurables at the beginning of TC going back to the beginning of his career.

BB KNOWS that Brady's measurables have IMPROVED EACH YEAR since he was 36. Now we know that at some point the measurables will level of and then decline. Since that isn't currently the case. Why do epople want to push the GOAT off a cliff?

Why do people want to unquestioningly, unthinkingly assume that Brady will with near-absolute certainty do something no one else in NFL history has ever done? (Well, I know why -- it's because they're fans who aren't responsible for a single damned thing about the operation of an actual football team and so can follow their hearts wherever they go with zero consequences.)

Actual managers who actually have to run and be responsible for things can't let themselves go into flights of fancy. Rather, they need to consider things coldly and hedge bets.

I'm not saying Brady is going to shrivel up and die in two years. I'm saying that unlike the homertastic (Bradytastic?) people here, Belichick has to plan for the possibility that Brady isn't going to last as long as Brady thinks he will and not just unquestionably assume it to be true.

 

[Simpelton]

I agree, it seems to me to be obvious that BB is trying to give himself QB options for the future, otherwise he wouldn't have spent the significant draft capital that he has on the position.

Brady's unprecedented workout regimen and diet seem to have enabled him to function at a higher level near-injury-free than ANY previous QB, he is truly one of a kind (by the way, why aren't all QB's in their late 30's rushing to Brady's house to figure out how to duplicate his methods?). I expect him to remain at a top level for the next couple of years, and maybe even longer. Nevertheless, nothing in life is guaranteed. He could maintain a high level of injury free performance for two or three years. He could suffer a big drop-off, perhaps due to a serious injury. The point is: nobody knows, not BB, not Brady, not even the Nostradamus's on this Board.

And, without the benefit of hindsight, that been the case for the last couple of years. Nobody knew before-hand that he would play so well without injury, especially given the punishment that he has taken. That is why (of course) BB has tried to give himself fall-back options in the last three years with a second and then third round pick on QB.

Whether BB trades Garoppollo or tries to keep him for a year or two, either way it will be a big gamble, based on a guess (on how long Brady will remain at his current injury free high level). It may be an educated guess, but it will still be a guess, and he may guess wrong, just like any of us. Nobody really knows for sure.

Which is why, despite the sensitive manchildren taking a head coach hedging his bets as some kind of grevious personal insult, BB is going to keep Garoppolo, and develop Brissett, and I expect the franchise to pick up a quarterback in the 6th round this year too. Because as big as Tom Brady is the needs of the franchise are bigger and Belichick has no intention of sacrificing the future of this franchise to stroke Tom Brady's ego. And even if he's too much of a competitor to take it lying down, Tom Brady is too smart not to understand exactly why.

Make no mistake -- this is Bill freaking Belichick. He knows *EXACTLY* when and PRECISELY what the benchmarks are that will cause him to walk away from TB12, whether that happens next year or 5 years from now. The man hasn't gotten this far by failing to have a plan for such a franchise-critical area. And when Brady hits the point BB has already decided will be his last straw, the trigger will be pulled and it'll be on to the next guy. You know that, I know that, BB knows that, and Brady knows that.

 

[Wrath Mania]

Why do people want to unquestioningly, unthinkingly assume that Brady will with near-absolute certainty do something no one else in NFL history has ever done? (Well, I know why -- it's because they're fans who aren't responsible for a single damned thing about the operation of an actual football team and so can follow their hearts wherever they go with zero consequences.)

Actual managers who actually have to run and be responsible for things can't let themselves go into flights of fancy. Rather, they need to consider things coldly and hedge bets.

I'm not saying Brady is going to shrivel up and die in two years. I'm saying that unlike the homertastic (Bradytastic?) people here, Belichick has to plan for the possibility that Brady isn't going to last as long as Brady thinks he will and not just unquestionably assume it to be true.

Of course this makes sense. The only thing I'd add is I think Brady has thus far exceed Belichick's pragmatism, going back to the '14 draft when they first acquired Jimmy and onward. If Brady somehow continues to thwart any need for a successor, Belichick will be happy to see it. But if he slips, then they'll do what they gotta do.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Brady is a ONCE in a lifetime exception.
What he has given to the organization and fans is immeasurable in value.

He should be able to play for as long as he wants even if he SUCKS. He should 1000% retire a patriot and never put on another uniform.


I would not care if after Brady is ready to retire we have no backup quarterback and the patriots suck for another 10 years.

Legends retire on their own terms.

For this reason, I would like to see JG traded now. Otherwise the "myth" of JG will hang over Brady and the team this entire season. I like JG. He may be very good...but sorry he does not deserve to be "hovering" over Tom

If Brady wants to play 10 more years...he plays 10 more years as a Patriot. Now we all know that he is so competitive that if his play ever truly fell off the cliff he would not hang around.

But TB can play as long as he wants in my view.

So what team will you transfer your allegiance to when Brady is done?

 

[Clonamery]

Why do people want to unquestioningly, unthinkingly assume that Brady will with near-absolute certainty do something no one else in NFL history has ever done? (Well, I know why -- it's because they're fans who aren't responsible for a single damned thing about the operation of an actual football team and so can follow their hearts wherever they go with zero consequences.)

Actual managers who actually have to run and be responsible for things can't let themselves go into flights of fancy. Rather, they need to consider things coldly and hedge bets.

I'm not saying Brady is going to shrivel up and die in two years. I'm saying that unlike the homertastic (Bradytastic?) people here, Belichick has to plan for the possibility that Brady isn't going to last as long as Brady thinks he will and not just unquestionably assume it to be true.

Very true. I just don't see the need that some do to slight Brady while doing so...

 

[Simpelton]

Of course this makes sense. The only thing I'd add is I think Brady has thus far exceed Belichick's pragmatism, going back to the '14 draft when they first acquired Jimmy and onward. If Brady somehow continues to thwart any need for a successor, Belichick will be happy to see it. But if he slips, then they'll do what they gotta do.

Exactly. The ball is in Brady's court now. If he can keep playing at a high level, he'll be the starter, But at his current age, it would be absolutely and utterly negligent of Belichick not to have a plan in place for when old age catches up with him. He may be a freak but father time will win in the end.

 

[Clonamery]

Why do people want to unquestioningly, unthinkingly assume that Brady will with near-absolute certainty do something no one else in NFL history has ever done? (Well, I know why -- it's because they're fans who aren't responsible for a single damned thing about the operation of an actual football team and so can follow their hearts wherever they go with zero consequences.)

Actual managers who actually have to run and be responsible for things can't let themselves go into flights of fancy. Rather, they need to consider things coldly and hedge bets.

I'm not saying Brady is going to shrivel up and die in two years. I'm saying that unlike the homertastic (Bradytastic?) people here, Belichick has to plan for the possibility that Brady isn't going to last as long as Brady thinks he will and not just unquestionably assume it to be true.

Duh.