I just went through the playoff machine.
Even without Dalton the Bengals only lose to Denver, no way I see them losing to SF or at home against the Ravens so they'll win the north and be 3rd seed.
For 4th seed I actually have Houston winning the AFC S @ 8-8 as I think they'll win against the Colts w/ Whitehurst and on the road in Tennessee. I don't see them winning against the Jags, though, who I think are the team to beat next year.
5th seed I have the Chiefs @ 11-5 after beating the Ravens, Browns and their home finale against the Raiders.
6th seed I got the Steelers who are probably going to win out against Denver, the browns and the ravens and end up 11-5.
Going to love watching an 11-5 team play on the road week one. Because it won't be us ^_^