Stats Gripe: QB rating is for the birds

[patchick]

I was really referring to yardage per attempt though.

Ah, ok! I totally agree then. In your post it seemed that the "THAT'S HUGE!!" was about yardage per game.

 

[Oswlek]

He crapped the bed against the Seahawks, and crapped badly.

No he didn't. The first pick was when Rodgers thought he had a free play due to an offside penalty, but it wasn't called. The second pick was miscommunication and may have been on the WR. At the end of the game, it was McCarthy who neutered Rodgers, with Aaron proving he could have done more when he drove right down the field to tie the game with the clock running down.

 

[BobDigital]

QB rating like all stats is imperfect but i think it is a very good stat and overall very accurate provided offensive weapons are equal in determining who tend to be the best QBs.

The main issue for Brady being lower than Rodgers is the Patriots run it in more often from the goal line than GB. I agree it is kind of unfair but I think it is right to measure a QBs ability to punch it in so to speak as that is an important skill set and some guys are better at it then others.

If Rodgers ends up with the better QB rating at the end of the year cause of that I won't care. Brady just needs to keep doing what he is doing.

Edit:

If you wanna cut hairs though.

Pats have 39.7 PPG
GB has 28.3 PPG

Pats have 9 passing TDs 5 rushing in 3 games
GB has 11 passing TDs 2 rushing in 4 games

Give me the Pats offense.

 

[BobDigital]

Every offense is different. Some offenses are not quick strike. Some encourage a more methodical, high-percentage,approach.....like the Patriots.

Well each has advantages and disadvantages.

Quick strike in theory is better because you give yourself less chance to make a mistake (penalty/fumble/int) if you go 80 yards in 5 or 6 plays as oppose to 10 or 12.

However the down side is that a quick strike offense has plays which take longer so blocking needs to hold up even assuming you can make the throws.

Also a quick strike offense is better for coming back at the last second. Ideally you want to be able to be both methodical and quick strike as it allows you to manage the clock (note TOP and managing the clock are 2 different things). It is nice when you can set things up to get the last possession of the 2nd half or score quickly if behind or score slowly if ahead.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

The argument is old and well established. But, it's the best thing out there for just purely when a QB goes to throw the ball and ESPN's attempt to introduce situation is interesting, but it's ESPN so it stands to reason it may be flawed or too subjective

What people will argue (as some have done) is what is the QBs role in the entire offense and how it affects not just drives, but how much it helps the defense.

To me, that's the fun and joy of football, so many ways to slice and dice it to come up with something useful and or a good point for discussion. At the end of the day, I'll take the wins and after that, health of the team and then (perhaps) stats.

 

[upstater1]

This is true, but I don't think it would be fair to award less points to Brady if he throws a 30-yard TD strike than if he completes a pass to the 20, another to the 10, and then throws the TD. In my mind, yardage is yardage unless the clock is a factor.

I do like your system BTW. Encompasses most of what I see as important QB measures.

While I agree with this, I also want to be Johnny One-Note and point out yet again that Brady is throwing for more YPA than Rodgers is. In other words, Brady is the one throwing for more yards per pass, the quicker-striker.

 

[upstater1]

QB rating like all stats is imperfect but i think it is a very good stat and overall very accurate provided offensive weapons are equal in determining who tend to be the best QBs.

The main issue for Brady being lower than Rodgers is the Patriots run it in more often from the goal line than GB. I agree it is kind of unfair but I think it is right to measure a QBs ability to punch it in so to speak as that is an important skill set and some guys are better at it then others.

If Rodgers ends up with the better QB rating at the end of the year cause of that I won't care. Brady just needs to keep doing what he is doing.

Edit:

If you wanna cut hairs though.

Pats have 39.7 PPG
GB has 28.3 PPG

Pats have 9 passing TDs 5 rushing in 3 games
GB has 11 passing TDs 2 rushing in 4 games

Give me the Pats offense.

It really isn't the issue though. Brady is throwing more TDs per game. So running it in has nothing to do with the discrepancy.

 

[BobDigital]

It really isn't the issue though. Brady is throwing more TDs per game. So running it in has nothing to do with the discrepancy.

I certainly think it does. Same Ints - 0 about the same completion %, about the same YPA, the difference in their rating comes down to TD/pass. Brady and Rodger have thrown near the same number of passes on the season (though Brady has played in one less game).

If they Pats run in 2 times like GB did and pass 3 more times then their state line would be near identical.

Keep in mind QB rating is about TDs/pass not TDs/game.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

I feel there should be separate (no fault) Interception stat for quarterbacks where the receiver was at fault (hit in the chest etc)

Who knows, maybe one for Missed Interceptions where the DB drops a catchable interception.

Sort of like baseball's earned run average where the pitcher isn't punished for errors behind him.....
I remember one of Mallet's ints when he was here,. It literally hit the TE in the chest and was very catchable but bounced up in the air and was picked off...That should not count against the QB versus an overthrow or throwing into triple coverage....

 

[upstater1]

I certainly think it does. Same Ints - 0 about the same completion %, about the same YPA, the difference in their rating comes down to TD/pass. Brady and Rodger have thrown near the same number of passes on the season (though Brady has played in one less game).

If they Pats run in 2 times like GB did and pass 3 more times then their state line would be near identical.

Keep in mind QB rating is about TDs/pass not TDs/game.

Right, we agree. I pointed out earlier that TD/Pass was the culprit. And it really makes no sense since the more volume the more difficult it is to pass. When you're balanced, you keep the D off guard. My earlier post was simply to emphasize TD/pass ratio because most fans would simply say, "Well, this guy throws more TDS than your guy, so he has a higher rating." Here we have Brady leading in practically every single category, yet he has a lower rating.

 

[Deus Irae]

QB rating is as good as pretty much any system currently working, and it better than both ESPN's QBr system and whatever the hell you want to call the PFF system. That being said, there is not a perfect system in known existence. If you want a full picture of how the QBs are doing, take a look at the stats, scour the world for every single system of analysis in use, and then....


... watch the games.

 

[Wildo7]

Aaron Rodgers is saddled by Mike McCarthy, possible the stupidest coach in the NFL, who barely lets him pass. Rodgers has 123 to Brady's 133 attempts this season and has played one more game.

I could see an argument that says Brady has been as good as Rodgers so far this season, but in general, Rodgers crushes Brady in every reasonable metric.

Also, I think that the rating systems are flawed but the simple fact is that Rodgers has been a more effective QB over the course of his career with an ANY/A of 7.79 to Brady's 6.99. And if you think your eyetest of watching Brady every single week and watching Rodgers ~sometimes is a more reliable, less biased approach then lol at you.

Also feel free to critique ANY/A if you can rather than just giving emotional responses or Deus-esque one-liners, it basically just tells you who does better when asked to throw:

"ANY/A. adjusted net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks). Note that we are now using 20 yards per TD instead of 10, because of research by Chase Stuart at the p-f-r blog."

People here always want to (rightfully) trumpet Belichick as the best coach ever and then explain away Brady's statistical shortcomings to Manning and Rodgers with team accomplishments and bah humbug eyetest over stats comments, but it's not really a reasonable debate except on First Take or whatever

 

[RobertWeathers]

Well each has advantages and disadvantages.

Quick strike in theory is better because you give yourself less chance to make a mistake (penalty/fumble/int) if you go 80 yards in 5 or 6 plays as oppose to 10 or 12.

However the down side is that a quick strike offense has plays which take longer so blocking needs to hold up even assuming you can make the throws.

Also a quick strike offense is better for coming back at the last second. Ideally you want to be able to be both methodical and quick strike as it allows you to manage the clock (note TOP and managing the clock are 2 different things). It is nice when you can set things up to get the last possession of the 2nd half or score quickly if behind or score slowly if ahead.

I agree completely. For the Pats, I think they game plan based on the opponent. For example, in SB49,they new that big plays weren't gonna happen whereas vs BAL or Indy, because their defenses were susceptible to the big play or vulnerable, they felt that they could do more.

 

[strngplyr]

So I looked at the QB stats this morning:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/passingYards/year/2015/seasontype/2

Couldn't figure out how Aaron Rodgers has a higher rating.

Brady is at 9 TDs and Rodgers at 11 TDs with one more game. About even (in terms of TDs per game). If anything, Brady is a bit better at 3 TDs per game.

Comp. % is about even with AR at 72.4% and TB at 72.2%. And this is even with Brady throwing a much higher volume.

Brady is at 8.36 YPA while AR is at 8.06. Brady is much better here.

But where Brady really excels is his 371 YPG to ARs 249.

THAT'S HUGE!

Whatever QB rating is supposed to measure (efficiency I suppose) it really fails to tell us anything at all.

Rodgers TD % is higher, that's the major skewing factor. 2 more TD's in 10 less passes is huge when the other major factors such as comp % and YPA are near even.

6.7% vs 8.9% is pretty big

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

Aaron Rodgers is saddled by Mike McCarthy, possible the stupidest coach in the NFL, who barely lets him pass. Rodgers has 123 to Brady's 133 attempts this season and has played one more game.

I could see an argument that says Brady has been as good as Rodgers so far this season, but in general, Rodgers crushes Brady in every reasonable metric.

Also, I think that the rating systems are flawed but the simple fact is that Rodgers has been a more effective QB over the course of his career with an ANY/A of 7.79 to Brady's 6.99. And if you think your eyetest of watching Brady every single week and watching Rodgers ~sometimes is a more reliable, less biased approach then lol at you.

Also feel free to critique ANY/A if you can rather than just giving emotional responses or Deus-esque one-liners, it basically just tells you who does better when asked to throw:

"ANY/A. adjusted net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks). Note that we are now using 20 yards per TD instead of 10, because of research by Chase Stuart at the p-f-r blog."

People here always want to (rightfully) trumpet Belichick as the best coach ever and then explain away Brady's statistical shortcomings to Manning and Rodgers with team accomplishments and bah humbug eyetest over stats comments, but it's not really a reasonable debate except on First Take or whatever

No need to explain away Brady's stats since he has better stats. Has Rodgers had his first comeback victory down 9 points yet? Or he he still 0-22. Even **** QBs manage to make a comeback by accident once in a while.

 

[Wildo7]

No need to explain away Brady's stats since he has better stats. Has Rodgers had his first comeback victory down 9 points yet? Or he he still 0-22. Even **** QBs manage to make a comeback by accident once in a while.

Ok, so you went right to team accomplishments anyway.

Here we can conclude that either:

a) Rodgers is not even a **** QB

or

b) "comeback victories down 9 points" is not a particularly useful metric by which to evaluate QBs

what a puzzle!

 

[BobDigital]

Aaron Rodgers is saddled by Mike McCarthy, possible the stupidest coach in the NFL, who barely lets him pass. Rodgers has 123 to Brady's 133 attempts this season and has played one more game.

I could see an argument that says Brady has been as good as Rodgers so far this season, but in general, Rodgers crushes Brady in every reasonable metric.

Also, I think that the rating systems are flawed but the simple fact is that Rodgers has been a more effective QB over the course of his career with an ANY/A of 7.79 to Brady's 6.99. And if you think your eyetest of watching Brady every single week and watching Rodgers ~sometimes is a more reliable, less biased approach then lol at you.

Also feel free to critique ANY/A if you can rather than just giving emotional responses or Deus-esque one-liners, it basically just tells you who does better when asked to throw:

"ANY/A. adjusted net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks). Note that we are now using 20 yards per TD instead of 10, because of research by Chase Stuart at the p-f-r blog."

People here always want to (rightfully) trumpet Belichick as the best coach ever and then explain away Brady's statistical shortcomings to Manning and Rodgers with team accomplishments and bah humbug eyetest over stats comments, but it's not really a reasonable debate except on First Take or whatever

So your argument is basically ratings systems are flawed but Rodgers crushes Brady in every statistical metric that matters (to you) which is why he is better.

If you wanna go by the stats go by the stats. Use any formula you want. Personally I think it is too close to call and don't bother debating it much.

You point our Rodgers has a handicap of passing less but make it clear you are going purely by a efficiency based formula so total attempts don't matter (also it can be argued when you pass less you get more favorable passing situations). You can use your stat formula if you want. I will stick to my eye test. They are both great. Enough said.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

Ok, so you went right to team accomplishments anyway.

Here we can conclude that either:

a) Rodgers is not even a **** QB

or

b) "comeback victories down 9 points" is not a particularly useful metric by which to evaluate QBs

what a puzzle!

Since the point of playing, throwing passes, and getting yards is to win it is a pretty important metric. A ten point come from behind is what won the SB.

Unless Rodgers blocks for himself or catches his own passes those stats are team stats as well. None of that is necessary though because Rodgers doesn't have better stats than Brady. In Rogers time as a starter Brady has more TDs and yards per game.

 

[Wildo7]

QB rating like all stats is imperfect but i think it is a very good stat and overall very accurate provided offensive weapons are equal in determining who tend to be the best QBs.

The main issue for Brady being lower than Rodgers is the Patriots run it in more often from the goal line than GB. I agree it is kind of unfair but I think it is right to measure a QBs ability to punch it in so to speak as that is an important skill set and some guys are better at it then others.

If Rodgers ends up with the better QB rating at the end of the year cause of that I won't care. Brady just needs to keep doing what he is doing.

Edit:

If you wanna cut hairs though.

Pats have 39.7 PPG
GB has 28.3 PPG

Pats have 9 passing TDs 5 rushing in 3 games
GB has 11 passing TDs 2 rushing in 4 games

Give me the Pats offense.

Of course this is useless without looking at attempts:

Redzone attempts:

GB: 16 Rushing, 20 Pass
NE: 22 Rushing, 24 Pass

Inside the 10:

GB: 7 Rushing, 14 Pass
NE: 13 Rushing, 16 Pass

Even with the extra game Rodgers has had less TD opportunities and has done more with them than Brady.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

Of course this is useless without looking at attempts:

Redzone attempts:

GB: 16 Rushing, 20 Pass
NE: 22 Rushing, 24 Pass

Inside the 10:

GB: 7 Rushing, 14 Pass
NE: 13 Rushing, 16 Pass

Even with the extra game Rodgers has had less TD opportunities and has done more with them than Brady.

Good point, Aaron Rodgers not getting his team in the red zone proves he's better.