Spreads are nearly meaningless

[TBR]

I bet a lot last year and lost several hundred due to a terrible philosophy

Tip: don't get too excited about teasers. I did way too many 7 point teases and not enough straight-up bets

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I bet a lot last year and lost several hundred due to a terrible philosophy

Tip: don't get too excited about teasers. I did way too many 7 point teases and not enough straight-up bets

Teasers just put you at a slightly more statistical disadvantage.

 

[supafly]

I don't bet. I spend money at books to add an extra wrinkle to the game-viewing experience and anything that happens after that is gravy. I also am on a betting budget that I don't allow myself to go over.

Being a disciplined gambler, in and of itself, is a weird joy for me.

That's pretty much exactly where I'm at. There are probably several periods during the year where I'll deposit some money, and then I'll play off of whatever increases I may see. Sometimes it results in a check, sometimes it results in losing my deposit.

Either way, there isn't a ton of money being exchanged, and it does enhance the games that I wouldn't normally care to watch.

 

[supafly]

I bet a lot last year and lost several hundred due to a terrible philosophy

Tip: don't get too excited about teasers. I did way too many 7 point teases and not enough straight-up bets

I agree. I just lost a 7 point teaser on the Monday night game because I didn't want to give the -7 points with Green Bay, so I brought it down to even and added the 7 points to the total. I needed to go under 55.

Basically, I agree with you that it's generally a losing philosophy, due to the fact that you're making things more complex.

 

[fnordcircle]

That's pretty much exactly where I'm at. There are probably several periods during the year where I'll deposit some money, and then I'll play off of whatever increases I may see. Sometimes it results in a check, sometimes it results in losing my deposit.

Either way, there isn't a ton of money being exchanged, and it does enhance the games that I wouldn't normally care to watch.

I'll be betting $X a week on the Pats to cover and that's pretty much it until week 10 when I start ****ing around with teasers. I charted my betting and found that I am really bad at gauging teams early in the season since I am too biased towards how that team played the previous season, so week 10 is the only time when I'll let myself bet anything other than the Pats.

 

[jmt57]

I don't think that's true. I've never crunched the numbers on it but most games are not EVEN or a spread of -1, at least in the years of betting I've done.

Looking at http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/ for this week alone there's only a couple of games at a couple of books without the possibility for the favorite to win and not cover the spread.

I too would need to go back and crunch the numbers to verify.

The point I was attempting to make was not in regards to an even point spread (as opposed to ½, 1½, 2½, etc.) - but rather that most NFL (not college) lines are relatively small. Because of that small point spread in the majority of NFL games there is not much wiggle room for a favorite to win straight up, but at the same time not cover the spread.

In many (if not most) cases for that (win but not cover) to happen the favorite would have to win by only one or two points - and that final result point differential just doesn't seem to occur very often.