Rookies Making The Team As Upgrades On Defense

[ATippett56]

I would presume the following players would be locks on defense:

DE (3) - Ninkovich, Chandler Jones, Sheard
DT (4) - Branch, Siliga, Chris Jones, Easley
LB (4) - Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Freeny (ST) or White (ST)
S (5) - Chung, McCourty, Wilson, Ebner, Harmon
CB (4) - Arrington, Dennard, Ryan, Butler

Roster competition:

DE (1) - Buchanan vs Moore
LB (1) - Darius Fleming vs Martin, Skinner, Gordon, Morris, 2015 NFL Draft Pick
CB (1) - Fletcher vs McClain vs 2015 NFL Draft Pick(s)

http://www.patriots.com/team/roster

I sincerely doubt a rookie would be starting at the defensive end, defensive tackle, free safety, or strong safety position.

Minimum Positional Distribution:

DE - 4
DT - 4
LB - 5 (assumes one special teams linebacker is allotted)
CB -5
S - 5

 

[mgteich]

I would presume the following players would be locks on defense:

DE (3) - Ninkovich, Chandler Jones, Sheard
DT (4) - Branch, Siliga, Chris Jones, Easley
LB (4) - Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Freeny (ST) or White (ST)
S (5) - Chung, McCourty, Wilson, Ebner, Harmon
CB (4) - Arrington, Dennard, Ryan, Butler

Roster competition:

DE (1) - Buchanan vs Moore
LB (1) - Darius Fleming vs Martin, Skinner, Gordon, Morris, 2015 NFL Draft Pick
CB (1) - Fletcher vs McClain vs 2015 NFL Draft Pick(s)

http://www.patriots.com/team/roster

I sincerely doubt a rookie would be starting at the defensive end, defensive tackle, free safety, or strong safety position.

Minimum Positional Distribution:

DE - 4
DT - 4
LB - 5 (assumes one special teams linebacker is allotted)
CB -5
S - 5

LOCKS (20) and COMPETITION (3)
I disagree with your analysis of corners (see below); otherwise fine.

MINIMUM DISTRIBUTION (23) - Agreed
I suspect that a 9th DL will be the 24th. I think that 8 DL's is a bit light. The open question is whether we keep a 26th player, a 6th corner or another special teamer. Decisions on the roster composition of the last 5 roster spots needn't be decided until the last cut.
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THE CORNERS
On March 3, many here had each of your four locks as being likely cuts. Arrington was considered vulnerable because of his hight salary (I think Belichick disagrees). Ryan was consider a special teamer and a player to be moved to safety. Dennard and Butler were considered questionable to make the 53, especially Dennard whom has a salary not in keeping with a #5 or #6 corner.

So, apparently because of the loss of Revis and Browner, these players are now locks.

Let's look at what Belichick has done. He brought is an experienced slot receiver to compete with Arrington (or to back him up), and guaranteed $350K of his compensation. He has added Fletcher (with a $550K guarantee) to compete for a starting spot. Belichick added Chekwa to compete with Ryan for a special team position. Of course, we all return Green and Swanson.

You believe that we will draft a corner or two who will compete only for the 5th CB spot.

I HAVE A DIFFERENT VIEW

1) I would not presume that we do not draft a corner early, as you seem to by not considering such a player a roster lock. After all, such a player would NOT be competing for a roster spot. He could have one, at least a developmental one. Belichick has never cut a healthy 4th rounder (or earlier) before Game One.

2) I think that we have competition for three types of roster positions, all labeled CB. I don't that anyone has a job locked up. We have at least 10 competitors.

outside - Fletcher, Butler, Dennard, draftee, Swanson
slot - Arrington, McClain
special teams - Ryan, Chekwa, Green

3) I find it especially strange that you think that the best that Belichick could find (and give guarantees to) in free agency were two players who are competing with a draftee for a roster spot, and a special teamer with little chance of making the team.

4) For me, the most likely roster lock at this point is a player that Belichick drafts; Arrington comes next.

 

[BTTA]

I hope that Mayo can live up to everyone's expectations and that the money gets worked out. I'm not as optimistic as most of you seem to be.