Let's talk about the lines: OFFENSE

[Brady6]

This discussion of Hilapio seems silly. Almost all of us consider him a fine prospect in the 6h. Projecting him as our starting center is beyond the pale. He is a prospect to be our backup RG.

The two people thinking him a lock are those who consider all draftees locks (Reiss and Brady6). Brady6 didn't even like the pick at the time. But Brady6 is consistent. He believes in youth over experience, especially experienced players over 30. I have the opposite view, almost always preferring to have veterans, especially as backups.

To clarify I do not expect Halapio to start, I expect Cannon to start at RG.

I do prefer youth; I think the NFL is a young man’s game. I am not against veterans however, but Dan Connolly is a soon to be 32-year-old former UDFA who has carved out a good career with the Patriots as a depth OL and a starter at OC and RG in recent years. He is not an elite player entering the twilight of his career, the margin for him in the NFL is very small, he is not Logan Mankins an All-Pro talent who even with skills diminished by age is more talented than the majority of OGs in the NFL.

I am consistent in my view of young people and I respect the fact that your prefer veterans, but I do think it is important that you recognize that 9 times out of 10 when I advocate for the young player it is against a veteran player that was marginal to begin with. I am not going to suggest keeping Chris Jones over Vince Wilfork or Tommy Kelly just because he is younger, because Wilfork and Kelly have been upper echelon players throughout their careers. I am going to advocate keeping Halapio over Connolly however, because Connolly has never been more than a depth player and an average starter.

 

[Brady6]

We're assuming they know the responsibilities of each lineman on a play and aren't just charging one for a "disruption" because he picked up the closest man due to one of the other lineman blowing his assignment, thereby letting a free man in.

From what I've seen, the guy closest to the free man is usually covering for a blown assignment elsewhere, so I'm not sure i'd trust some tea sippers to decide who is at fault on a play.

So Solder, Vollmer Mankins, and Cannon were beat and that led to Wendell and Connolly having a high number of disruptions?

 

[RayClay]

So Solder, Vollmer Mankins, and Cannon were beat and that led to Wendell and Connolly having a high number of disruptions?

On any given play it's possible. What possible formula could you use that has knowledge of how the players on the line are supposed to respond to every different kind of rush?

 

[Brady6]

On any given play it's possible. What possible formula could you use that has knowledge of how the players on the line are supposed to respond to every different kind of rush?

And no other OCs or RGs in the NFL were impacted the same way? This inflated just Wendell and Connolly?

 

[RayClay]

I am not sure, most sites like ESPN and NFL.com provide basic stats there are not any basic stats other than games played and games started for OL.

The formula used to determine QB disruptions is the same for all OL so Wendell having more than his peers is indicative of his play in my opinion.

Well, do you think Wendell was a superstar in 2012? If so, considering he had no major injury I'm aware of, how could he become so lousy a year later? Was Kryptonite involved, or did they change the formula?

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/05/31/secret-superstar-ryan-wendell/

 

[RayClay]

And no other OCs or RGs in the NFL were impacted the same way? This inflated just Wendell and Connolly?

All of them are impacted on near every play. it would be nice if the defense just rushed straight ahead toward the QB on every play, but they don't.

 

[Brady6]

Well, do you think Wendell was a superstar in 2012? If so, considering he had no major injury I'm aware of, how could he become so lousy a year later? Was Kryptonite involved, or did they change the formula?

I thought Wendell played very well in 2012, but I think as a finesse player he benefited from the hurry up offense and quick passing game, his struggles are with maintaining the block against stronger players. This past season the offense was slower and Brady needed more time, this was not good for Wendell.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Well, do you think Wendell was a superstar in 2012? If so, considering he had no major injury I'm aware of, how could he become so lousy a year later? Was Kryptonite involved, or did they change the formula?

Ray, i don't think you can post that without Ian being at risk for copyright infringement.

That said is there a puking icon i can use when PFF is referenced?

 

[RayClay]

I thought Wendell played very well in 2012, but I think as a finesse player he benefited from the hurry up offense and quick passing game, his struggles are with maintaining the block against stronger players. This past season the offense was slower and Brady needed more time, this was not good for Wendell.

That's your opinion. Then we have an opinion of a stats guy from England that i can't find anything on relating to football.

Other than that, we have some posters here i consider to have pretty good knowledge of line play, then we have actual college and NFL coaches and writers with NFL expertise who actually grade players, but don't publish that information, probably because it will be misused by statisticians who don't know the game, like the founder of the pffff.

 

[Brady6]

That's your opinion. Then we have an opinion of a stats guy from England that i can't find anything on relating to football.

Other than that, we have some posters here i consider to have pretty good knowledge of line play, then we have actual college and NFL coaches and writers with NFL expertise who actually grade players, but don't publish that information, probably because it will be misused by statisticians who don't know the game, like the founder of the pffff.

I think most people on this board considered Wendell’s play in 2013 to be poor, I actually have only see Ken suggest otherwise.

 

[Ring 6]

And no other OCs or RGs in the NFL were impacted the same way? This inflated just Wendell and Connolly?

You are now arguing that while you agree (I think) that the methodology used, competence of the person applying it and overall quality of the source is horrendous and the numbers are useless that the relation between the numbers is reliable?

 

[RayClay]

Ray, i don't think you can post that without Ian being at risk for copyright infringement.

That said is there a puking icon i can use when PFF is referenced?

Thanks, Ivan. I cropped it to 2-3 sentences and added the link I forgot. It's a publicly available website, so I'm within guidelines of the fair use doctrine as explained here.

 

[RayClay]

Ray, i don't think you can post that without Ian being at risk for copyright infringement.

That said is there a puking icon i can use when PFF is referenced?

There you go. Anything else I can do for you?

 

[Huckleberry1]

Thanks, Ivan. I cropped it to 2-3 sentences and added the link I forgot. It's a publicly available website, so I'm within guidelines of the fair use doctrine as explained here.

No problem, I figured it was an oversight but I am pretty sure ian can get serious sh.t if we screw up in that regard.

 

[Huckleberry1]

There you go. Anything else I can do for you?

Very useful............

 

[RayClay]

I'

I think most people on this board considered Wendell’s play in 2013 to be poor, I actually have only see Ken suggest otherwise.

I'm not qualified to judge. I will say I never considered him a superstar, secret or otherwise. He was surprisingly competent for a while and never seemed to have adequate strength, although Koppen wasn't so great in that department either.

A good line is a unit and often hides the deficiencies of one or more members.

 

[RayClay]

No problem, I figured it was an oversight but I am pretty sure ian can get serious sh.t if we screw up in that regard.

No, I appreciate it. I've mentioned it to others and Ian has stated he wants fair use standards strictly adhered to here. Other sites are not so strict, so I forget. I actually wrote a paper on fair use and Ian provides specific guidelines so there's no excuse not to follow them.

Though it's a pay site, that article is obviously available for free or I wouldn't have found it. You don't think I'd pay to buy that guy bangers and mash do you?

 

[Brady6]

You are now arguing that while you agree (I think) that the methodology used, competence of the person applying it and overall quality of the source is horrendous and the numbers are useless that the relation between the numbers is reliable?

I do not have the dislike for PFF that many on this board do, I do not think it is a great site but I think like many sites it has good and bad. I do not look at their rankings; I look at the raw numbers because they do offer some value in the right context. To answer your question I do not consider the rankings very reliable but some of the raw numbers used in the formulas can be a decent indicator.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

For the record in my line of work errors in job performance result in death in most cases.

Quit betting with Sicilian

 

[patfanken]

We're assuming they know the responsibilities of each lineman on a play and aren't just charging one for a "disruption" because he picked up the closest man due to one of the other lineman blowing his assignment, thereby letting a free man in.

From what I've seen, the guy closest to the free man is usually covering for a blown assignment elsewhere, so I'm not sure i'd trust some tea sippers to decide who is at fault on a play.

The ONLY one who knows who is responsible for blocking failures on any given play are the players and coaching staff. THEY are the only ones who know if someone made a mental error and who is responsible for a physical one.

Given that Brady dropped back over 620 times last year it is easy to see where even a 5% error factor in grading would be significant. It could result in 25-35 mistakes when amateurs are giving the grades. In fact even if you were a former professional OLneman you could still make errors because there would be no way for you to know the play call, line call, and post snap adjustments that should be made and thus correctly evaluate a play.

Please understand, its not like I'm saying that Wendell is an elite C. I'm not saying that it wouldn't be good to have someone bigger and more powerful manning the position. But before we make that "upgrade" we should be careful what we wish for. Based on the fact that BB DOES have all the knowledge necessary to correctly grade Wendell's performance, its clear to me that he wouldn't have bothered to re-sign him if he was even CLOSE to as bad as he's been made out here.

Here's what I know about the offensive line at this point of the season. Bill Bellichick is going to be comfortable if Ryan Wendlell ends up being the C this season. I think he drafted Stork with the hope that he will eventually becoming the starter down the road. That may or may not happen anytime between now and the next 2 years. Most likely next year.

However if Wendell is the guy, then he could very well struggle against certain DL's, but even with those struggles I expect the Pats to put him in the best possible situations to make the best of his physical abilities. The end result is going to be ANOTHER season with a plus OL and a top 10 offense.