The Safeties Have Never Been Good Enough

[Deus Irae]

BB knows when to cut his losses. He cut Meriweather even though he was a 1st round pick coming off a Pro Bowl, didn't he?

And that was a mistake, since he didn't have adequate replacements. Cutting Meriweather was one thing. Cutting Meriweather and Sanders, when you're replacing them with Patrick Chung and Sergio Brown/James Ihedigbo is another. Inadequate replacements is really the story of the decline of the Patriots defense over the course of the 2000s and into the 2010s.

 

[supafly]

If the Patriots go after Ward and upgrade the line, can they still afford Talib? I would assume most of these scenarios would include a Wilfork cut and giving Edelman a low-ball, take it or leave it deal.

I think that this could either be spot on, or it could be a misconception that many here think. Obviously, we won't really know until it plays out, so we'll continue to talk about it for the next few months.

Just to clarify--yes, most feel that we're cap strapped, but there are also ways to free up some additional money just the same. I'm not for/against any of these moves, but just using basic examples. Let's look at how we can quickly get to approximately 15-20 million under the cap, using our free 5-6 as a current starting point:

--Cut Sopoaga (frees up 2.5--takes us up to 7--8.5)
--Cut Gregory (frees up approx. 3--takes us up to 10--11.5)
--Cut A.Wilson (frees up approx. 1.2--takes us up to 11.5--13)

--Restructure Wilfork (frees up approx. 4--takes us up to 15.5--17)

I don't think any of these are even close to unreasonable, actually I think they are very likely myself (although Gregory could be extended instead). If you want to take it one step further, you could also look at:

--Cut Connelly (frees up approx. 3)

OR

--Restructure/extend Mankins (frees up approx. 3-4)

--------------------------------


If you want to even take it one more step further, we could begin to explore any possibility of asking the NFL for some relief on the Hernandez 7.5 dead cap hit just as well. I don't know the specifics of this and what it would entail, but most here think that it's definitely going to happen. Even if we received an additional 2.5m in relief, it's a significant savings.

To sum it up, I personally don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to see something in the range of being about 15+ million under the cap over the course of the offseason, even though it is unlikely to all come at once. That could very well allow us some additional cap relief that many don't initially expect.

No one knows what will happen, aside from the fact that we'll likely be sticking to our current business model in terms of refusing to go "all in" and ignoring the future. One thing's for sure though---I wouldn't put anything past Bill Belichick when it comes to molding a competitive team and addressing some obvious weakness. Of course, some of these will be addressed in the draft for much lower costs in the future.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

When was the last time that at least one of our safeties didn't need to greatly improve?

I know we have acceptable safeties in the 2003 preseason when Harrison was looking forward to playing opposite Milloy.

It might be time to go back and watch the November game between Denver and New England.

If you watch that game it might actually dawn on you that that the Denver offense actually didn't do any better against our defense than they did against Seattle.

The reality is Seattle is built to counter a Denver offense.

Teams can run on Seattle.

Pick five starters on Seattle...take them out and see what happens.

 

[mayoclinic]

You need to be careful with your numbers.

According to Miguel's latest analysis, the Pats are $7,338,069 under the adjusted cap:

- They have $123,639,131 in commitments : $117,955,660 in salary and bonuses plus $5,683,721 in dead money.
- Miguel estimates their adjusted cap figure at $130,977,739, based on a projected league-wide cap of $126.3M plus $570,649 in adjustments and $4,106,801 carry-over from 2013.

2014 Patriots Salary Cap Picture ? 1/25/2014 Update atriots Salary Cap

Some money needs to be used for the rookie contracts based on the NFL allocation, for a PS, and for contingency funds. MgTeich suggested a number of $6M for all of those needs; it could be less if you assume that there will be some money saved from cut-downs. Some capologists have also suggested that the league-wide number could come in around $2M higher; until the league announces the true number in a month or so we won't know, but I'm guessing the Pats will start with under $5M to spend on free agency - including our own re-signings - prior to any cuts or re-structures.

The numbers that you cite for savings on different players are higher than most of Miguel's numbers. I know that some sites like Spotrac and Overthecap.com list higher figures, and I'm not a apologist, but I would be cautious about over-estimating how much money can be saved:

- Adrian Wilson: you list $1.2M, Miguel lists $671K.
- Dan Connolly: you list $3M, Miguel lists $2.5M.
- Isaac Sapoaga: you list $2.5M, Miguel lists $2.005M.
- Steve Gregory: you list $3M, Miguel lists $2.23M.

The difference just for those 4 players between your numbers and Miguel's is around $2.2M. It adds up.

Wilfork's number will almost certainly be lower, whether via re-structure or outright cut; in the latter case, a FA replacement may need to be found. Extending a guy who has a potential career-threatening injury may not be a wise move.

Extensions for Devin McCourty, Matt Slater and Stephen Gostkowski could free up some money. I would personally be cautious about re-structuring Mankins, as it would just make it harder for the team to move on in 2015 if that ends up being their preference.

We can probably get into the $15M+ range in 2014 cap space to spend on FAs, but that may need to account for re-signing Talib or a replacement, Edelman or a replacement, Wendell or a replacement, Blount or a replacement, plus some smaller signings (Fletcher, Aiken, Svitek or a replacement). It's not a lavish situation.

I think that this could either be spot on, or it could be a misconception that many here think. Obviously, we won't really know until it plays out, so we'll continue to talk about it for the next few months.

Just to clarify--yes, most feel that we're cap strapped, but there are also ways to free up some additional money just the same. I'm not for/against any of these moves, but just using basic examples. Let's look at how we can quickly get to approximately 15-20 million under the cap, using our free 5-6 as a current starting point:

--Cut Sopoaga (frees up 2.5--takes us up to 7--8.5)
--Cut Gregory (frees up approx. 3--takes us up to 10--11.5)
--Cut A.Wilson (frees up approx. 1.2--takes us up to 11.5--13)

--Restructure Wilfork (frees up approx. 4--takes us up to 15.5--17)

I don't think any of these are even close to unreasonable, actually I think they are very likely myself (although Gregory could be extended instead). If you want to take it one step further, you could also look at:

--Cut Connelly (frees up approx. 3)

OR

--Restructure/extend Mankins (frees up approx. 3-4)

--------------------------------


If you want to even take it one more step further, we could begin to explore any possibility of asking the NFL for some relief on the Hernandez 7.5 dead cap hit just as well. I don't know the specifics of this and what it would entail, but most here think that it's definitely going to happen. Even if we received an additional 2.5m in relief, it's a significant savings.

To sum it up, I personally don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to see something in the range of being about 15+ million under the cap over the course of the offseason, even though it is unlikely to all come at once. That could very well allow us some additional cap relief that many don't initially expect.

No one knows what will happen, aside from the fact that we'll likely be sticking to our current business model in terms of refusing to go "all in" and ignoring the future. One thing's for sure though---I wouldn't put anything past Bill Belichick when it comes to molding a competitive team and addressing some obvious weakness. Of course, some of these will be addressed in the draft for much lower costs in the future.

 

[Deus Irae]

You need to be careful with your numbers.

According to Miguel's latest analysis, the Pats are $7,338,069 under the adjusted cap:

- They have $123,639,131 in commitments : $117,955,660 in salary and bonuses plus $5,683,721 in dead money.
- Miguel estimates their adjusted cap figure at $130,977,739, based on a projected league-wide cap of $126.3M plus $570,649 in adjustments and $4,106,801 carry-over from 2013.

2014 Patriots Salary Cap Picture ? 1/25/2014 Update atriots Salary Cap

Some money needs to be used for the rookie contracts based on the NFL allocation, for a PS, and for contingency funds. MgTeich suggested a number of $6M for all of those needs; it could be less if you assume that there will be some money saved from cut-downs. Some capologists have also suggested that the league-wide number could come in around $2M higher; until the league announces the true number in a month or so we won't know, but I'm guessing the Pats will start with under $5M to spend on free agency - including our own re-signings - prior to any cuts or re-structures.

The numbers that you cite for savings on different players are higher than most of Miguel's numbers. I know that some sites like Spotrac and Overthecap.com list higher figures, and I'm not a apologist, but I would be cautious about over-estimating how much money can be saved:

- Adrian Wilson: you list $1.2M, Miguel lists $671K.
- Dan Connolly: you list $3M, Miguel lists $2.5M.
- Isaac Sapoaga: you list $2.5M, Miguel lists $2.005M.
- Steve Gregory: you list $3M, Miguel lists $2.23M.

The difference just for those 4 players between your numbers and Miguel's is around $2.2M. It adds up.

Wilfork's number will almost certainly be lower, whether via re-structure or outright cut; in the latter case, a FA replacement may need to be found. Extending a guy who has a potential career-threatening injury may not be a wise move.

Extensions for Devin McCourty, Matt Slater and Stephen Gostkowski could free up some money. I would personally be cautious about re-structuring Mankins, as it would just make it harder for the team to move on in 2015 if that ends up being their preference.

We can probably get into the $15M+ range in 2014 cap space to spend on FAs, but that may need to account for re-signing Talib or a replacement, Edelman or a replacement, Wendell or a replacement, Blount or a replacement, plus some smaller signings (Fletcher, Aiken, Svitek or a replacement). It's not a lavish situation.

Unless I'm reading things wrong, the number for Connolly is $3m

Cap hit: $4,083,334
Dead money: $1,083,334
Salary: $3m
Freed money: $3m


The same thing seems to have happened with Sopoaga

Cap hit: $3.5m
Dead money: $1m
Salary: $2.5m
Saved money: $2.5m

Wilson

Cap hit: $1,833,333
Dead money: $666,667
Salary: $1,500,000
Saved money: $1,166,666

Gregory is a bit more complex (LBTE, roster bonus), and there seems to be an issue about his current cap hit, so I'll leave that be rather than adding to the confusion.

It seems to me that Miguel is either factoring an additional step in and taking things further than Supa was going, or he was having a bad math day. I could certainly be wrong, of course, in which case, my sincerest apologies to Miguel.

 

[mayoclinic]

Unless I'm reading things wrong, the number for Connolly is $3m

Cap hit: $4,083,334
Dead money: $1,083,334
Salary: $3m
Freed money: $3m


The same thing seems to have happened with Sopoaga

Cap hit: $3.5m
Dead money: $1m
Salary: $2.5m
Saved money: $2.5m

Wilson

Cap hit: $1,833,333
Dead money: $666,667
Salary: $1,500,000
Saved money: $1,166,666

Gregory is a bit more complex (LBTE, roster bonus), and there seems to be an issue about his current cap hit, so I'll leave that be rather than adding to the confusion.

It seems to me that Miguel is either factoring an additional step in and taking things further than Supa was going, or he was having a bad math day. I could certainly be wrong, of course, in which case, my sincerest apologies to Miguel.

I'm not a cap expert, and I'll be thrilled if the higher numbers end up being correct. I don't know the answer, and your math seems straightforward, but I generally take Miguel as the gold standard until proven otherwise. In any case, I wanted to point out that there is a discrepancy in the numbers. Perhaps Miguel can comment on this.

 

[Spiral]

Patriots play a ton of Cover-1. Dmac playing the single high safety (No QBs throw at him over the middle).

Check out the Denver game. Payton made 2 or 3 completions 15-20 yards over the middle, which is about as far downfield as he can throw it.

 

[All22PatsFan]

Check out the Denver game. Payton made 2 or 3 completions 15-20 yards over the middle, which is about as far downfield as he can throw it.

DMac was only targeted 18 times this season and only allowed 9 completions in the regular season. Pretty good considering he played almost all the defensive snaps. The pats plays a lot more 2 deep safety vs the broncos. An interesting decision as the Sehawks played mostly cover-1 in the SB. Matt Bowen, Kyed and PFF watch a ton of film and love McCourty, Bowen used to play safety, Kyed watch's a ton of Pats film and PFF is OK.

 

[borg]

Isn't Miguel factoring in replacement cost to fill empty roster space

 

[patriot1136]

Not sure what the safety free agent market is like and which would be realistic for us to sign anyways. But, any chance we sign a decent CB and convert them to safety? That could work possibly

 

[PatsFan2]

When was the last time that at least one of our safeties didn't need to greatly improve?

I know we have acceptable safeties in the 2003 preseason when Harrison was looking forward to playing opposite Milloy.

McCourty with all his speed didn't make many plays out there and Gregory is a jag. Until we get a playmaker at Safety we are always going to be average on D. We have too much of the same type of guys jags.

 

[yopats]

Sign TJ Ward and let's move on!

TJ Ward Highlights (HD) - YouTube

 

[Ring 6]

BB knows when to cut his losses. He cut Meriweather even though he was a 1st round pick coming off a Pro Bowl, didn't he? If TJ Ward is as good as people say, hopefully he'll accept a middle of the road contract for a chance at a ring with the Pats.

The Pats really need to free up some cap space if they are to sign any decent free agents though. I think if they retain Talib, add a good SS, and a good DT they will be in very good shape. Like many, I believe that Spikes is gone. Love his ferocious hitting but he's an absolute liability vs the pass. Hightower will turn into a more mobile playmaker at the MLB position for us.

Come on this is Patsfans. Either we have allpros every year at every position and are #1 at everything, or BB is either too stupid, stubborn, or arrogant to accept what a poster is trying to teach him about his decisions and how he could do the job as well as them.
Of course, the same people who make these comments will state that if you disagree that they are always 100% correct about their criticism of BB, then that means you are mindlessly endorsing everything BB does.
It really is a silly little characteristic about this board that at times makes it unreadable.

 

[Ring 6]

If I didn't know better I wouldn't know we are talking about a defense that was 10th in points allowed, 4th in completion % against, 5th in sacks, 9th in opponent QB rating.
All with the defense being literally decimated by injuries throughout the season. The pass defense was the most improved aspect of this team.

 

[UK_Pat37]

When was the last time that at least one of our safeties didn't need to greatly improve?

I know we have acceptable safeties in the 2003 preseason when Harrison was looking forward to playing opposite Milloy.

DBs can't do very much when you get zero interior pressure. I didn't mind some of the DB play this year. I am on record many a time as saying I think that the pass rush...namely the interior...lets this team down on a consistent basis.

Wilfork, albeit a great run stuffer, is next to useless in the passing game. When he got hurt it was even more of a struggle. We need fast, penetrating DTs. We have a great LB corps to mop up the middle.

 

[Deus Irae]

Isn't Miguel factoring in replacement cost to fill empty roster space

That would be the extra step I mentioned, and it would mean that Supa was right with his numbers.

 

[mgteich]

Miguel ia indeed factoring in an "additional" step".

Lets use Sopoaga as an example. Let us say that he is cut today. How much will the cap go down; that is, how much will be available?

The cap will go down by $2M not $2.5M as you state. Before the transaction clears at 4PM another player will automatically be part of the 51 at a cost of approximately $500K (now $495K).

The good news is that this does matter much because the same thing happens when we add a player. If we were to add a player at a 2014 cap cost of $2.5M, the net cost is only $2M since a player would be replaced on the 51.
=======================

For now, this is basically semantics. However, Miguel's way seems best. For example, think of the cost of signing a couple of vet minimum players (grizzeled old vets) at the cap discount of $550K. Some would say to beware of signing say 4 of these guys at $2.2M. After all, this all adds up. Rather the real cap effect would be about $.2M or $2M less.
================================

ANOTHER EXAMPLE - WHY MIGUEL IS RIGHT

Let us say you cut 5 players with cap hits totaling $8.5 M which you spend on one player and you sign a stud for $8M. So you even according to the calculations you've given. Actually, you are SHORT BY TWO MILLION DOLLARS. The net cap savings is $2.5M less and the cap cost is $.5M less.
=============================
BOTTOM LINE

If you cut a player with a cap hit of $3M, you can replace him with a cap hit of $3M. Miguel would have the tow transactions as each having an effect of $2.5M. In this case, it doesn't matter. But using net cap effect seems better to me.

It seems to me that Miguel is either factoring an additional step in and taking things further than Supa was going, or he was having a bad math day. I could certainly be wrong, of course, in which case, my sincerest apologies to Miguel.

 

[mayoclinic]

Isn't Miguel factoring in replacement cost to fill empty roster space

That would be the extra step I mentioned, and it would mean that Supa was right with his numbers.

That explains things nicely. Thanks, Borg. Miguel's cap savings numbers are somewhat misleading in that respect, since cutting a player (Connolly for example) doesn't necessarily mean that he is being replaced by someone costing $495K, even if when he is cut a player at the bottom of the roster will bump up into the top 51.

 

[Deus Irae]

Miguel ia indeed factoring in an "additional" step".

Lets use Sopoaga as an example. Let us say that he is cut today. How much will the cap go down; that is, how much will be available?

The cap will go down by $2M not $2.5M as you state. Before the transaction clears at 4PM another player will automatically be part of the 51 at a cost of approximately $500K (now $495K).

The good news is that this does matter much because the same thing happens when we add a player. If we were to add a player at a 2014 cap cost of $2.5M, the net cost is only $2M since a player would be replaced on the 51.
=======================

For now, this is basically semantics. However, Miguel's way seems best. For example, think of the cost of signing a couple of vet minimum players (grizzeled old vets) at the cap discount of $550K. Some would say to beware of signing say 4 of these guys at $2.2M. After all, this all adds up. Rather the real cap effect would be about $.2M or $2M less.
================================

ANOTHER EXAMPLE - WHY MIGUEL IS RIGHT

Let us say you cut 5 players with cap hits totaling $8.5 M which you spend on one player and you sign a stud for $8M. So you even according to the calculations you've given. Actually, you are SHORT BY TWO MILLION DOLLARS. The net cap savings is $2.5M less and the cap cost is $.5M less.
=============================
BOTTOM LINE

If you cut a player with a cap hit of $3M, you can replace him with a cap hit of $3M. Miguel would have the tow transactions as each having an effect of $2.5M. In this case, it doesn't matter. But using net cap effect seems better to me.

Net cap effect has its uses, but it is not for use when you're discussing what Supa was discussing, which is money freed up for signings.

 

[mgteich]

If Connolly were cut today and no other transactions happened, after 4 PM Connolly would indeed be replaced on the 51 man cap list by a player who cost $495K.

Miguel's cap savings numbers are somewhat misleading in that respect, since cutting a player (Connolly for example) doesn't necessarily mean that he is being replaced by someone costing $495K, even if when he is cut a player at the bottom of the roster will bump up into the top 51.