Expert Picks for AFCCG - Patriots at Broncos

[QB12]

Heard this morning on ESPN's M&M:

Golic: Denver has too many weapons. Denver wins.
Greeny: Blount controls game, limits Manning's possessions. Pats Win.

 

[Rob0729]

I know Florio picked the Pats. That could be the kiss of death.

ESPN Guys
NFL Picks and Predictions for Conference Championships - National Football League - ESPN

CBS Sports
NFL Picks - Straight Up - Week 20 - CBSSports.com

Don Banks picks the Broncos
NFL picks for AFC, NFC Championship game - NFL - Don Banks - SI.com

 

[TomPatriot]

Forget Manning v. Brady. Like most games, T & T will decide this game - trenches and turnovers.

 

[RIpats88]

none of the "experts" picks will have any bearing on the game..although I like how Schefter and Ditka picked the pats

 

[SebertJr]

experts,

 

[reflexblue]

I know Florio picked the Pats. That could be the kiss of death.

ESPN Guys
NFL Picks and Predictions for Conference Championships - National Football League - ESPN

CBS Sports
NFL Picks - Straight Up - Week 20 - CBSSports.com

Don Banks picks the Broncos
NFL picks for AFC, NFC Championship game - NFL - Don Banks - SI.com

Florio and Greeny. I really don't like Greeny picking the Pats. To me thats like putting them on the cover of SI

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Merril Hoge picked us?

wow.

dogs and cats sleeping together,
a terrible plague,
LOCUSTS!

 

[CISGS]

HOGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



I suddenly feel much worse about this game.

 

[everlong]

Hoge, Ditka, Carter and Shefter all took the Pats and 3 of the 4 hate them and the other was a Denver beat guy at one point. Can you say jinx picks? Nice try boys.

 

[Nikolai]

HOGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



I suddenly feel much worse about this game.

Yeah, I wish I could unsee that.

 

[mayoclinic]

Heard this morning on ESPN's M&M:

Golic: Denver has too many weapons. Denver wins.
Greeny: Blount controls game, limits Manning's possessions. Pats Win.

I don't really understand this "too many weapons" stuff.

I think the Pats have better talent in almost all phases:

Offense:

QB: Call Brady-Manning a wash.
OL: Call it a wash. Both lines are playing very well.
Running game: Edge to the Pats. Big change since the last game. Though it should be noted that Montee Ball has become more of a factor for Denver.
Passing game: Edge to the Broncos. More receiving weapons. The loss of Rob Gronkowski since the last game impacts the Pats.

Defense:

DL: Edge to the Pats. The interior run defense has improved markedly since Sealver Siliga was promoted. The Broncos have lost their best defensive player since the last game in Von Miller.
LB: Edge to the Pats. Jamie Collins is emerging is a potential star, and Dont'a Hightower has settled down considerably.
Secondary: Big edge to the Pats. Pats have a championship-caliber secondary that is the healthiest it has been since early in the season. Denver is using duct tape with the loss of Chris Harris.

Special Teams:

Call it even. assuming Ryan Allen is ok. Trinton Holliday is a threat, but the Broncos have had fumbling problems. Matt Slater is the best ST coverage player on both teams. Both kickers are excellent. Punter is about even if Allen can go.

Not to mention the coaching edge to BB. And clearly, Denver has HFA. Call it about even.

Obviously, the game is played on the field, and the teams have to execute. No guarantees. But I don't understand why the Pats are so obviously "less talented" than the Broncos.

 

[shmessy]

I don't really understand this "too many weapons" stuff.

I think the Pats have better talent in almost all phases:

Offense:

QB: Call Brady-Manning a wash.
OL: Call it a wash. Both lines are playing very well.
Running game: Edge to the Pats. Big change since the last game. Though it should be noted that Montee Ball has become more of a factor for Denver.
Passing game: Edge to the Broncos. More receiving weapons. The loss of Rob Gronkowski since the last game impacts the Pats.

Defense:

DL: Edge to the Pats. The interior run defense has improved markedly since Sealver Siliga was promoted. The Broncos have lost their best defensive player since the last game in Von Miller.
LB: Edge to the Pats. Jamie Collins is emerging is a potential star, and Dont'a Hightower has settled down considerably.
Secondary: Big edge to the Pats. Pats have a championship-caliber secondary that is the healthiest it has been since early in the season. Denver is using duct tape with the loss of Chris Harris.

Special Teams:

Call it even. assuming Ryan Allen is ok. Trinton Holliday is a threat, but the Broncos have had fumbling problems. Matt Slater is the best ST coverage player on both teams. Both kickers are excellent. Punter is about even if Allen can go.

Not to mention the coaching edge to BB. And clearly, Denver has HFA. Call it about even.

Obviously, the game is played on the field, and the teams have to execute. No guarantees. But I don't understand why the Pats are so obviously "less talented" than the Broncos.

Good stuff, but here's where I have a problem with your analysis (and others who do the same style). It's about the physical matchups on the FIELD, not on the marquee. Brady is NOT facing Manning. Our RB's are not facing their RB's, etc.

I'm not as sanguine as you are about our DL against their running game.

Moreno, Ball and Anderson put up 280 yards on 47 carries (5.96 yds/carry) against the Pats last time in Foxboro.

This time, the game is in the thin air of Mile High Stadium and we are asking an awful lot of our rookie UFA DT's and Siliga (with no Spikes hammer in back of them) to control the Denver run.

Everyone is keying on how our secondary and Collins will strategize to stop Denver's passing game. That area for the Pats is as talented and healthy as it has been since the 1970's.

I'm not so comfortable about our run defense on Sunday. I certainly hope I am wrong.

 

[mayoclinic]

Good stuff, but here's where I have a problem with your analysis (and others who do the same style). It's about the physical matchups on the FIELD, not on the marquee. Brady is NOT facing Manning. Our RB's are not facing their RB's, etc.

I'm not as sanguine as you are about our DL against their running game.

Moreno, Ball and Anderson put up 280 yards on 47 carries (5.96 yds/carry) against the Pats last time in Foxboro.

This time, the game is in the thin air of Mile High Stadium and we are asking an awful lot of our rookie UFA DT's and Siliga (with no Spikes hammer in back of them) to control the Denver run.

Everyone is keying on how our secondary and Collins will strategize to stop Denver's passing game. That area for the Pats is as talented and healthy as it has been since the 1970's.

I'm not so comfortable about our run defense on Sunday. I certainly hope I am wrong.

If Denver can beat us running the ball, more power to them.

Looking at it from a matchup perspectives:

Broncos on offense:

- Broncos have more offensive weapons, but our secondary is "as talented and healthy as it has been since the 1970's". The Broncos will put up some yards and points, but we match up well.

- I'm not as worried about the run defense as you are. Denver's 280 yards was in almost 5 quarters of play and was in part due to a strategic approach to the last game. Admittedly, our run defense was bad in that game, but Siliga has helped a lot. Hightower looked strong last week. If his ankle is ok, then I think he'll be solid being Siliga-Jones. Ninkovich and Chandler Jones spent a lot of time last week worrying about gap control to keep Andrew Luck in the pocket. They won't have to do that as much this week, and can focus more on run support when they aren't going full-bent after Manning.

Pats on offense:

- The Pats didn't run much in the last game, after the fumble-prone 1st quarter and falling behind. That will probably change. Blount-Ridley should get a healthy dose of carries, and Vereen could be a major factor. The OL is run blocking at a very high level. Denver has lost Von Miller and Kevin Vickerson from their DL. Denver has been playing fairly well recently, so it's not a given, but I think the Pats will wear them down.

- Brady had Gronk in the last game, and that's a huge loss, but Dobson didn't play against the Broncos last time. If he can go, that will help. The Broncos lost one of their best defenders against Chris Harris, and their secondary is porous.

Again, I'm not suggesting anything's a given, but I think the match ups are by no means skewed against the Patriots.

 

[Gronkandez]

I don't really understand this "too many weapons" stuff.

I think the Pats have better talent in almost all phases:

Offense:

QB: Call Brady-Manning a wash.
OL: Call it a wash. Both lines are playing very well.
Running game: Edge to the Pats. Big change since the last game. Though it should be noted that Montee Ball has become more of a factor for Denver.
Passing game: Edge to the Broncos. More receiving weapons. The loss of Rob Gronkowski since the last game impacts the Pats.

Defense:

DL: Edge to the Pats. The interior run defense has improved markedly since Sealver Siliga was promoted. The Broncos have lost their best defensive player since the last game in Von Miller.
LB: Edge to the Pats. Jamie Collins is emerging is a potential star, and Dont'a Hightower has settled down considerably.
Secondary: Big edge to the Pats. Pats have a championship-caliber secondary that is the healthiest it has been since early in the season. Denver is using duct tape with the loss of Chris Harris.

Special Teams:

Call it even. assuming Ryan Allen is ok. Trinton Holliday is a threat, but the Broncos have had fumbling problems. Matt Slater is the best ST coverage player on both teams. Both kickers are excellent. Punter is about even if Allen can go.

Not to mention the coaching edge to BB. And clearly, Denver has HFA. Call it about even.

Obviously, the game is played on the field, and the teams have to execute. No guarantees. But I don't understand why the Pats are so obviously "less talented" than the Broncos.

I like the comparisons but find it hard to believe the Pats have the better DL, though I'm not familiar with all the Broncos guy (except for Miller and Vickerson who are out). I still think the Broncos will run very effectively against our Nickel defense. I'm not sold on this Siliga guy just yet.

I would like Chandler Jones to make a big impact since he's going up against a backup but Manning always gets rid of it so fast thus makig it difficult. At least he doesn't have to guard against the scramble.

 

[dales804]

Here's a website where you can see everyone's picks in one place:

NFL PICKWATCH: Conference Championship Expert NFL Picks

Don't tell those Donkey fans that almost 70% of "experts" are taking DEN. They apparently think they should be the underdogs. Even with the best offense in NFL history, #1 seed and a home game.

 

[Gronkandez]

Here's a website where you can see everyone's picks in one place:

NFL PICKWATCH: Conference Championship Expert NFL Picks

Don't tell those Donkey fans that almost 70% of "experts" are taking DEN. They apparently think they should be the underdogs. Even with the best offense in NFL history, #1 seed and a home game.

Surprisingly, IMO, 64% are picking Seattle.

The Prediciton Machine has been the most accurate this year (John Halpin hasn't picked yet?) and even they are taking the Broncos

 

[Huckleberry1]

Here's a website where you can see everyone's picks in one place:

NFL PICKWATCH: Conference Championship Expert NFL Picks

Don't tell those Donkey fans that almost 70% of "experts" are taking DEN. They apparently think they should be the underdogs. Even with the best offense in NFL history, #1 seed and a home game.

I think Bronco fans are scared to death that the Patriots are going to come into Denver and take control of the game with their run game and never let up, and i think they are right. Much as he might want to peyton can't throw to anyone when he's standing on the sidelines sulking. Notice how none of them have showed up to troll this week. I have a really good feeling about this game, my gut tells me that bronco fans are experiencing the exact opposite feeling, they are really worried about it.

 

[ALP]

Good stuff, but here's where I have a problem with your analysis (and others who do the same style). It's about the physical matchups on the FIELD, not on the marquee. Brady is NOT facing Manning. Our RB's are not facing their RB's, etc.

I'm not as sanguine as you are about our DL against their running game.

Moreno, Ball and Anderson put up 280 yards on 47 carries (5.96 yds/carry) against the Pats last time in Foxboro.

This time, the game is in the thin air of Mile High Stadium and we are asking an awful lot of our rookie UFA DT's and Siliga (with no Spikes hammer in back of them) to control the Denver run.

Everyone is keying on how our secondary and Collins will strategize to stop Denver's passing game. That area for the Pats is as talented and healthy as it has been since the 1970's.

I'm not so comfortable about our run defense on Sunday. I certainly hope I am wrong.

You think Manning will be fine with handing the ball off repeatedly in a close/low scoring game?

I doubt it

 

[mayoclinic]

I think Bronco fans are scared to death that the Patriots are going to come into Denver and take control of the game with their run game and never let up, and i think they are right. Much as he might want to peyton can't throw to anyone when he's standing on the sidelines sulking. Notice how none of them have showed up to troll this week. I have a really good feeling about this game, my gut tells me that bronco fans are experiencing the exact opposite feeling, they are really worried about it.

That's what happened the last time the Pats went to Mile High against Peyton. October 7 last year they rushed for 251 yards on 54 attempts, with Brady attempting only 31 passes (21/31 for 223 yards and 1 TD with 0 ints). The Pats controlled the clock 35:49 to 24:11. Manning threw the ball 41 times for 337 yards and 3 TDs, but 2 of them came with the Pats up 31-7 and the game effectively out of reach.

 

[Patsrock]

That's what happened the last time the Pats went to Mile High against Peyton. October 7 last year they rushed for 251 yards on 54 attempts, with Brady attempting only 31 passes (21/31 for 223 yards and 1 TD with 0 ints). The Pats controlled the clock 35:49 to 24:11. Manning threw the ball 41 times for 337 yards and 3 TDs, but 2 of them came with the Pats up 31-7 and the game effectively out of reach.

That was in Foxboro. Pats haven't faced Manning at Mile High.