Pats - Colts Divisional Round Discussion Thread

[Wheelman]

My friend is the backup Center for the Pats so he can get me tickets. So you might see me there next week cheering for the Colts!

Are you Bap1331 on the colts forum?

Colts vs Patriots OFFICIAL Mega Thread - Page 2 - Colts Football - Indianapolis Colts Fan Forum

If so, how do you know Chris Barker is the backup centre. Did Belichick, Mcdaniels or Scarnecchia tell him that? If Wendell is going to get injured, do you know for sure he's the one to replace him instead of Connolly shifting inside?

 

[supafly]

The Pats open a 7.5 point favorites against the Colts. I guess Vegas thinks the betters aren't as worried about Luck as some are on this board.

Just to be clear, I am not one who is extremely concerned of Luck, but I did like our chances of facing CIN the 2nd time around better. As a whole though, I am not one to be overly confident about facing any team in the 2013 season, as I think just about anyone can pose a challenge, particularly in the playoffs.

I was concerned about the BAL game for many other reasons, most notably the fact that we weren't a good road team, hadn't been dominating in the physical sense very well, had just lost Rob Gronkowski, and the Ravens normally played us tough. As I said--even then I predicted a Patriots victory by almost double digits in the official prediction thread ran by alamo. I just don't see anything wrong with having some concerns about the opposition in certain areas, and I would imagine that our coach would feel the same way.

 

[supafly]

But what if this board is the betting public??

The NEP are one of the teams that are an extremely popular choice for the average sportsbettor, so even though I'd agree with the line being set at 6 or 6.5, I'm not sure how much we can read into it either. Any online sportsbook or Las Vegas casino will tell you that the Patriots draw a ton of interest from the average idiot.

I have no idea what the relationship is to being favored this week, and that somehow proving that we shouldn't be concerned about IND in the least?

After all, we were favored against the Ravens in '09, the Jets in '10, the Giants in the SB in '11, and once again over Baltimore last year in '12. The worst example yet may have been the huge favorites that we were in '07 vs the NYG the first time--as it hovered around 9 or more the entire week.

Basically, we've been heavily favored in all of our last 5 playoff losses.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Just to be clear, I am not one who is extremely concerned of Luck, but I did like our chances of facing CIN the 2nd time around better. As a whole though, I am not one to be overly confident about facing any team in the 2013 season, as I think just about anyone can pose a challenge, particularly in the playoffs.

I was concerned about the BAL game for many other reasons, most notably the fact that we weren't a good road team, hadn't been dominating in the physical sense very well, had just lost Rob Gronkowski, and the Ravens normally played us tough. As I said--even then I predicted a Patriots victory by almost double digits in the official prediction thread ran by alamo. I just don't see anything wrong with having some concerns about the opposition in certain areas, and I would imagine that our coach would feel the same way.

Sup, I rarely see you take a position that doesn't have solid plausibility behind it, and you do it without SIN too [Standard Internet Nonsense]). However, and no offense meant man, I'm having a hard time seeing a clear foundation on this one. My understanding of your belief is you'd rather have faced Cincy/believe Indy is the more concerning matchup -- yet Luck doesn't concern you. If that's an accurate description of your position, I think you're off base. IMHO how concerning Indy is is synonymous with how concerning Luck is. Look, Luck's got a fairly impressive comeback record and fairly impressive amount of yards thrown in his short pro career....as well as CW saying he ran a pro offense in college very impressively. Given that, given the poise needed for a comeback against KC on the big stage, and given that Indy doesn't really possess anything else that jumps out at me as worrisome (Mathis?), I think 'Luck' and 'Indy' are interchangeable words. That's not to say it's all Luck if they win or if they lose, it's to say they won't win without him playing at a high level.

Of course I believed/wrote SD was a joke and would get walloped easily by Cincy......so take my post for what it's worth

 

[supafly]

Sup, I rarely see you take a position that doesn't have solid plausibility behind it, and you do it without SIN too [Standard Internet Nonsense]). However, and no offense meant man, I'm having a hard time seeing a clear foundation on this one. My understanding of your belief is you'd rather have faced Cincy/believe Indy is the more concerning matchup -- yet Luck doesn't concern you. If that's an accurate description of your position, I think you're off base. IMHO how concerning Indy is is synonymous with how concerning Luck is. Look, Luck's got a fairly impressive comeback record and fairly impressive amount of yards thrown in his short pro career....as well as CW saying he ran a pro offense in college very impressively. Given that, given the poise needed for a comeback against KC on the big stage, and given that Indy doesn't really possess anything else that jumps out at me as worrisome (Mathis?), I think 'Luck' and 'Indy' are interchangeable words. That's not to say it's all Luck if they win or if they lose, it's to say they won't win without him playing at a high level.

Of course I believed/wrote SD was a joke and would get walloped easily by Cincy......so take my post for what it's worth

I'm more concerned with IND and Luck that I was with Dalton and CIN based on the 8 or so factors that we spoke of last night in a different thread, but that doesn't mean that I'm sitting up at night "overly" concerned about Luck like he is insinuating either.

To be honest, I'd be concerned about any of our opponents, just the same as I have been all season. I think any team has the capacity to beat us on any given day if we don't come out and execute to the best of the team's ability. This 2013 team has plenty of flaws too. It's not the same as some year's past. That said, they also seem to be tougher in certain areas like resiliency, so hopefully that helps.

In other words, I'm just as concerned about IND as you are, but it doesn't warrant being pointed to as an example of a guy who's up all night pacing back and forth like a weirdo either. I liked the matchup with CIN much better. They suck on the road, they couldn't score pts on the road, and I thought that we were well prepared for the tougher defensive fronts of our opponents lately. That didn't happen, so it's on to facing Indy. What I don't agree with is people taking them lightly, but that's just a difference of opinions. The fact remains that we "should" beat them on Sat as long as we don't turn the ball over.

The road team who has a -1 turnover differential has about a 92% chance of losing in the postseason, which seems to be a bit higher than the regular season.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

The NEP are one of the teams that are an extremely popular choice for the average sportsbettor, so even though I'd agree with the line being set at 6 or 6.5, I'm not sure how much we can read into it either. Any online sportsbook or Las Vegas casino will tell you that the Patriots draw a ton of interest from the average idiot.

I have no idea what the relationship is to being favored this week, and that somehow proving that we shouldn't be concerned about IND in the least?

After all, we were favored against the Ravens in '09, the Jets in '10, the Giants in the SB in '11, and once again over Baltimore last year in '12. The worst example yet may have been the huge favorites that we were in '07 vs the NYG the first time--as it hovered around 9 or more the entire week.

Basically, we've been heavily favored in all of our last 5 playoff losses.

Interesting factoid.
When you look back at our SB wins, SB losses and conference championship games, the results have all pretty much been tight. Even last year's loss to Balt was a 1 point game in the fourth quarter (WC and division rounds have had more variation). Side note, I suspect that is partly due to BB scheming these biggest of games with a 'most important thing is to not make mistakes' mentality. Just a guess....
Anyway, does this mean if we beat Indy and SD beats Den, the smart move is to bet on SD in the AFCCG (we'll probably be favored by quite a bit)?? Hey, I am ok with the Patriots winning by 2 while I win my bet

 

[supafly]

Interesting factoid.
When you look back at our SB wins, SB losses and conference championship games, the results have all pretty much been tight. Even last year's loss to Balt was a 1 point game in the fourth quarter (WC and division rounds have had more variation). Side note, I suspect that is partly due to BB scheming these biggest of games with a 'most important thing is to not make mistakes' mentality. Just a guess....
Anyway, does this mean if we beat Indy and SD beats Den, the smart move is to bet on SD in the AFCCG (we'll probably be favored by quite a bit)?? Hey, I am ok with the Patriots winning by 2 while I win my bet

I think all of those things would depend on specifics from the next weekend, to be honest, but I'm just guessing. There are going to be factors that come up between now and then like injuries, margin of victory, the momentum that comes with it that goes along with playing into the public's habits, etc.

I would definitely agree that we'd be TD favorites vs SD should it somehow happen, and once again...I would also be concerned about facing them too just the same. None of these games are going to be easy by any means, and it's going to take a lot of perfect play with some luck involved too.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I'm more concerned with IND and Luck that I was with Dalton and CIN based on the 8 or so factors that we spoke of last night in a different thread, but that doesn't mean that I'm sitting up at night "overly" concerned about Luck like he is insinuating either.

To be honest, I'd be concerned about any of our opponents, just the same as I have been all season. I think any team has the capacity to beat us on any given day if we don't come out and execute to the best of the team's ability. This 2013 team has plenty of flaws too. It's not the same as some year's past. That said, they also seem to be tougher in certain areas like resiliency, so hopefully that helps.

In other words, I'm just as concerned about IND as you are, but it doesn't warrant being pointed to as an example of a guy who's up all night pacing back and forth like a weirdo either. I liked the matchup with CIN much better. They suck on the road, they couldn't score pts on the road, and I thought that we were well prepared for the tougher defensive fronts of our opponents lately. That didn't happen, so it's on to facing Indy. What I don't agree with is people taking them lightly, but that's just a difference of opinions. The fact remains that we "should" beat them on Sat as long as we don't turn the ball over.

The road team who has a -1 turnover differential has about a 92% chance of losing in the postseason, which seems to be a bit higher than the regular season.

That's a good point. In previous years we could rely on the offensive potency to mask areas of weakness/poor execution. Not to say the offense was always up to the task or that other areas didn't contribute, but the past teams ability to score points was definitely a crutch. This year the crutch isn't there. And because this year's team must have contribution/good execution all the way around, it makes us more vulnerable.

Even with all the injuries I think we are close to being SB worthy. It's a crazy reality when you think of all the injuries as well as all the rookies/no names that have had to step up. What a god damned shame that Gronk had to get hurt again and/or AH turned out to be a loser of the highest sort. Even with all this turmoil, just one very good TE would make me feel great about our chances of getting us to the SB.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I think all of those things would depend on specifics from the next weekend, to be honest, but I'm just guessing. There are going to be factors that come up between now and then like injuries, margin of victory, the momentum that comes with it that goes along with playing into the public's habits, etc.

I would definitely agree that we'd be TD favorites vs SD should it somehow happen, and once again...I would also be concerned about facing them too just the same. None of these games are going to be easy by any means, and it's going to take a lot of perfect play with some luck involved too.

SD has no chance in Denver. They're a joke team that doesn't belong in the playoffs (it worked this past weekend - I might as well try it again ).

 

[supafly]

That's a good point. In previous years we could rely on the offensive potency to mask areas of weakness/poor execution. Not to say the offense was always up to the task or that other areas didn't contribute, but the past teams ability to score points was definitely a crutch. This year the crutch isn't there. And because this year's team must have contribution/good execution all the way around, it makes us more vulnerable.

Even with all the injuries I think we are close to being SB worthy. It's a crazy reality when you think of all the injuries as well as all the rookies/no names that have had to step up. What a god damned shame that Gronk had to get hurt again and/or AH turned out to be a loser of the highest sort. Even with all this turmoil, just one very good TE would make me feel great about our chances of getting us to the SB.

I think our chances next year have to be looking pretty good in most people's opinions.

We have the returning injured players, another draft and free agency period to take advantage of, and this year's rookies to make a hopeful 2nd year leap.

I am a bit worried that we may come up a bit short this year, but would never think of being counted out either. Another viable target in the passing game would go a long way. Many people think that Dobson is going to be that guy in the next game or two, so let's hope that's the case. We can definitely use another big target on some level.

 

[PYPER]

Love the match ups. Historically speaking, Indy has long been one of our biggest rivals. Even when we were horrible in the early 90's, Indy was the one team trying to one-up us on futility. Its nice to see the rivalry continue despite Manning's departure. Hopefully, we'll continue to get the better of them more times than not.

I'm kind of expecting a similar game to what we witnessed in week 17 vs the Bills. A competitive game fluctuating between a 1-2 score difference with us protecting the lead throughout the game. I'm hoping our running game carries us through the AFC playoffs with a nice mix of Brady and the passing game to keep the running lanes flowing. If we're going to be Super, our running game needs continue playing well. I'm not expecting another 300 yard performance but a nice solid showing (150+ yards) to keep Luck cold on the bench will be key here.

The defense needs to to make Luck beat us with someone other than T Y Hilton. I think we also need to pay attention to his scrambling ability. He tends to find his rhythm when he's able to extend drives with his feet. Take away the big play and limit the damage of Lucks scrambles and we should prevail in a very competitive game that ends up somewhere in the 30-20 range. I respect Indy and Luck and if we allow him to get in a rhythm we could be in trouble but overall I feel we're a lot more physical than they are.

 

[Sticky Caulk]

Love the match ups. Historically speaking, Indy has long been one of our biggest rivals. Even when we were horrible in the early 90's, Indy was the one team trying to one-up us on futility. Its nice to see the rivalry continue despite Manning's departure. Hopefully, we'll continue to get the better of them more times than not.

I'm kind of expecting a similar game to what we witnessed in week 17 vs the Bills. A competitive game fluctuating between a 1-2 score difference with us protecting the lead throughout the game. I'm hoping our running game carries us through the AFC playoffs with a nice mix of Brady and the passing game to keep the running lanes flowing. If we're going to be Super, our running game needs continue playing well. I'm not expecting another 300 yard performance but a nice solid showing (150+ yards) to keep Luck cold on the bench will be key here.

The defense needs to to make Luck beat us with someone other than T Y Hilton. I think we also need to pay attention to his scrambling ability. He tends to find his rhythm when he's able to extend drives with his feet. Take away the big play and limit the damage of Lucks scrambles and we should prevail in a very competitive game that ends up somewhere in the 30-20 range. I respect Indy and Luck and if we allow him to get in a rhythm we could be in trouble but overall I feel we're a lot more physical than they are.

I wouldn't worry too much about Luck's scrambling abilities. The DEs have done an incredible job holding the edges down. Unless Ninko has a QB like Cam who can outrun him going outside, he will keep the QB from extending the play much. Same can be said for Jones.

My biggest worry is the Red Zone offense. The O-line hasn't pass blocked incredibly well and the receivers haven't been able to get away from their coverage in the endzone consistently. The Colts will cap off their successful drives with TDs. The Patriots have to do the same.

If the Patriots can force Luck into early mistakes like KC did, New England should be able to build an early lead. The running game will, once again, be featured.

 

[Nunchucks]

You guys are putting way too much on Fleener. Sugges ting that the patriots pit their best cb on a mediocre te? Insanity.

Hilton is not steve smith. He is a speedy 2nd year wr. Fleener is not graham, his production and skill set does not warrent the attention of the patriots best db.

 

[MassPats38]

You guys are putting way too much on Fleener. Sugges ting that the patriots pit their best cb on a mediocre te? Insanity.

Hilton is not steve smith. He is a speedy 2nd year wr. Fleener is not graham, his production and skill set does not warrent the attention of the patriots best db.

Agreed. KC has been vulnerable to pocket passers (e.g., Denver had 3 100+ receivers in 2 games) on the best of days. Throw in a few key injuries to the pass defense in the game, and Luck was slinging it downfield at will. After 4 100 yard games in the season before this, I'm not prepared to anoint Hilton as the next Megatron.

Fleener has 4 TDs this year, and 78 receptions in two years. While he has comparable quickness to Graham, I don't see him as meriting the same treatment by devoting the best cover guy to defending him.

Both of these guys become relevant only by giving Luck plenty of time to find the open man. If he is addressed, both his arm and his legs as he has speed, then these guys fall in line. Luck had an 87 QBR during the season and threw three picks yesterday. While he may be great one day, he is not infallible. But give this guy time and he will kill you, as KC found out in the second half. He can definitely throw the ball.

 

[MossWelkowski]

I feel the same about this game as I felt about the texans game last year

 

[oldrover]

you're missing my point and that is it's not easy for someone without a whole lot of experience to come into gillette and get the job done in the playoffs. one years, two years, 5 years, it doesn't matter. winning on the road in the playoffs is a tough task.

Weren't both Flacco and Sanchez 2nd-year QB's when they won in Foxboro? Not trying to stir it up... just saying that the Pats have 3 Gillette playoff losses in 5 years, and two were to second year QB's. This will be a tough game.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Weren't both Flacco and Sanchez 2nd-year QB's when they won in Foxboro? Not trying to stir it up... just saying that the Pats have 3 Gillette playoff losses in 5 years, and two were to second year QB's. This will be a tough game.

You make a good point - but those ravens and jets teams had top defenses, if I recall. Flacco and Sanchez were essentially bus drivers at that point in their careers. Patriots don't lose a whole lot at Gillette - not saying it's impossible for Luck to come here and send the pats packing, but some people on this board are acting like Luck is already at the level of brady or manning. He's a good quarterback, but we've faced good QBs all year.

 

[Gallo]

We have (Colts) possibly the most Jekyll & Hyde team i have ever seen. We've beaten elite teams during the regular season, and other times got absolutely demolished against above average teams.


Even in our defense & offense there is a huge fluctuation, our defense looked like elite in the last couple weeks, and our offense were often terrible.

Against the Chiefs, we managed to did all that (looking great and horrible on both offense and defense) in the duration of one freakin' game.


It wouldn't suprise me if we get blown out, and it also wouldn't suprise me if pull it off. With this team, anything is possible, the good, and the bad.

Of course the Pats gotta be a 7-8 points favorite.

 

[PatsSox363804]

We have (Colts) possibly the most Jekyll & Hyde team i have ever seen. We've beaten elite teams during the regular season, and other times got absolutely demolished against above average teams.


Even in our defense & offense there is a huge fluctuation, our defense looked like elite in the last couple weeks, and our offense were often terrible.

Against the Chiefs, we managed to did all that (looking great and horrible on both offense and defense) in the duration of one freakin' game.


It wouldn't suprise me if we get blown out, and it also wouldn't suprise me if pull it off. With this team, anything is possible, the good, and the bad.

Of course the Pats gotta be a 7-8 points favorite.

How would you say Colts fans are feeling about this game in general? It's funny, it was only a few years ago but I can't seem to build up the hatred I did for the Colts with Manning and Polian but with Belichick and Brady still around I imagine the Colts fans are feeling about the same as they did in 2004 towards the Pats?

 

[Gallo]

You make a good point - but those ravens and jets teams had top defenses, if I recall. Flacco and Sanchez were essentially bus drivers at that point in their careers. Patriots don't lose a whole lot at Gillette - not saying it's impossible for Luck to come here and send the pats packing, but some people on this board are acting like Luck is already at the level of brady or manning. He's a good quarterback, but we've faced good QBs all year.

Luck is like the team itself at this point, inconsistent. Can make all the throw in the book, and then some, recognize covers in an instant, and make laser passes into tight coverage, run with the best of them, and at the same time, he will try 2-3 passes every game that only the defender will have a chance to catch. It's very interesting, because i'm 100% sure he doesn't get nervous, he is super clutch since his first Colts game, had a number of clutch game winning drives even in his first season.

So i guess, he just thinks he can make any throw, and sometimes this gets the best of him. I rarely see Brady make passes like those. Referring to that article, Brady really is the best decision maker in the league. I barely remember him throwing picks when he's not forced to get the ball down field in a hurry. Back to Luck he also has another very stupid tendency, he will try passes mid-fall, during sacks, and often get into trouble because of that.