It's so easy to look at the Patriots and see the flaws - especially since we're used to them just crushing people week-in and week-out. But everyone else has flaws too. Here are the contenders (listed by current playoff seeding) and some of their flaws.
AFC
1. Kansas City - 8-0, Offense (#14 points, #16 yards); Defense (#1 scoring, #5 yards). Seems to be the most well-balanced team in the league so far, and the 8-0 record indicates that. But they have the single weakest SOS number in the NFL this year (.328), and among their 8 wins are a one-point win at home against Dallas, a one-point win at home agains Houston, and a close, 23-17 win against Cleveland. Not exactly murderer's row there. Moreover, they have only the 24th best passing offense (by yards gained per game) in the NFL, so they really would be hard-pressed to win a shootout. Their schedule gets a lot tougher in the second half, as they play San Diego and Denver twice apiece, plus Indianapolis. It wouldn't surprise me if they go 4-4 in the second half.
2. Cincinnati - 6-2, Offense (#11 points, #9 yards); Defense (#6 points, #8 yards). They are also well-balanced (actually on second glance, maybe more so than KC even). But they've lost twice (to Chicago and Cleveland…yuck), and they have four close wins (4 point win over GB, 7 point win over NE in a monsoon, 3 point win over Buffalo in OT, and a 3 point win over Detroit). They aren't crushing people either. Well, until this past week that is.
3. New England - 6-2, Offense (#17 points, #18 yards); Defense (#5 points, #19 yards). Uncharacteristically bad on offense, they nonetheless have scored 30, 27, and 27 points in their last 3 games, so there are signs of life. They've suffered a rash of injuries to top starters, so their long-term prognosis isn't likely to be very good. Along with their two losses, they have four close wins. They just aren't blowing people out like they used to.
4. Indianapolis - 5-2, Offense (#8 points, #12 yards); Defense (#8 points, #20 yards). They suffered a major injury when Reggie Wayne was lost for the season. Surprisingly, their passing offense isn't as good as you would think (just 21st in the NFL in yards per game). Their run defense is also not good (#29 in the NFL). Aside from their two losses, they have three close wins.
5. Denver - 7-1, Offense (#1 points, #1 yards); Defense (#26 points, #24 yards). Clearly a juggernaut on offense, they have plenty of blowout wins. But their defense is, simply put, very bad. The only team that has failed to score at least 20 points against them was the Jaguars, who still put up 19 on them. Denver has had games where they've given up 27, 48, and 39 points. They have also faced the 2nd weakest schedule in the AFC (.367 SOS). Moreover, they turn the ball over a ton - despite Peyton Manning's brilliance. Their 17 giveaways ranks 3rd worst in football.
6. San Diego - 4-3, Offense (#14 points, #4 yards); Defense (#9 points, #23 yards). Three losses, barely beat Philadelphia, and they're the Chargers. Teams pass on them at will (#26 passing defense). They get KC and Denver twice in the second half, plus Cincy and at Miami. This team is dangerous, but not exactly a dynamo.
NFC
1. Seattle - 7-1, Offense (#9 points, #15 yards); Defense (#3 points, #2 yards). Best record in the NFC, dynamic home field advantage, great defense, capable offense. Very good team. But they barely beat St. Louis, Carolina, and Houston, and had a close game against Tennessee. Sure, they crushed San Francisco at home, but when they are not at home, they're a different team. Average point differential: Home: +20.3; Road: +3.8. Fortunately for them, they have 5 home games left, and probably will have HFA throughout the playoffs.
2. New Orleans - 6-1, Offense (#5 points, #6 yards); Defense (#4 points, #12 yards). Great bounce-back year for the Saints, their only loss coming with 5 seconds left in New England. No shame there. But they've played the 2nd weakest schedule in the NFC, and other than their loss, two of their games were close (16-14 over terrible Tampa Bay, and 23-17 over hapless Atlanta). They don't run (#25 rushing offense) and they can't stop the run (#20 rushing defense). A game between New Orleans and Seattle would be very fun to watch.
3. Green Bay - 5-2, Offense (#3 points, #2 yards); Defense (#16 points, #11 yards). As long as Aaron Rodgers stays healthy, they're dangerous. They can be passed on (#21 pass defense), and other than their two losses, they also have one close win (by 2 over Baltimore). They don't turn it over (just 9 giveaways), but they are 2nd worst at generating turnovers (just 7 takeaways). So they rely on getting stops rather than turning you over.
4. Dallas - 4-4, Offense (#4 points, #14 yards); Defense (#17 points, #32 yards). Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that this team is wildly inconsistent. Explosive offense, and a sieve-like defense. Four losses, plus their close win against the Giants in week 1. They can't run the ball (#27), and they can't stop the pass (#32). It's Romo or bust for this team.
5. San Francisco - 6-2, Offense (#6 points, #13 yards); Defense (#7 points, #9 yards). A disappointing season for them defensively, but losing Aldon Smith doesn't exactly help. Great rushing offense, but the #31 ranked passing offense. Kaepernick just hasn't taken his game to the next level, though he's certainly a capable player. They've lost twice, and both were blowouts (29-3 vs Sea, and 27-7 vs Ind). And they have a close win over Green Bay. Very good team, but they've been manhandled a couple of times this year.
6. Detroit - 5-3, Offense (#7 points, #3 yards); Defense (#20 points, #25 yards). Three losses plus a somewhat miraculous win by one point over Dallas, and another close win over Washington, not exactly juggernauts. Their defense is disappointing, and they can't stop the pass (#25 in the NFL). They don't run the ball very well (#20).
Long story short, each of these contenders has strengths, and each has weaknesses. KC has played the best overall so far, but there are definitely concerns about them. No team is a juggernaut, not even Denver. Every team is flawed, which means that the playoff run should be very exciting, and it also means that New England very much has a puncher's chance, especially if the offense improves in the second half.
AFC
1. Kansas City - 8-0, Offense (#14 points, #16 yards); Defense (#1 scoring, #5 yards). Seems to be the most well-balanced team in the league so far, and the 8-0 record indicates that. But they have the single weakest SOS number in the NFL this year (.328), and among their 8 wins are a one-point win at home against Dallas, a one-point win at home agains Houston, and a close, 23-17 win against Cleveland. Not exactly murderer's row there. Moreover, they have only the 24th best passing offense (by yards gained per game) in the NFL, so they really would be hard-pressed to win a shootout. Their schedule gets a lot tougher in the second half, as they play San Diego and Denver twice apiece, plus Indianapolis. It wouldn't surprise me if they go 4-4 in the second half.
2. Cincinnati - 6-2, Offense (#11 points, #9 yards); Defense (#6 points, #8 yards). They are also well-balanced (actually on second glance, maybe more so than KC even). But they've lost twice (to Chicago and Cleveland…yuck), and they have four close wins (4 point win over GB, 7 point win over NE in a monsoon, 3 point win over Buffalo in OT, and a 3 point win over Detroit). They aren't crushing people either. Well, until this past week that is.
3. New England - 6-2, Offense (#17 points, #18 yards); Defense (#5 points, #19 yards). Uncharacteristically bad on offense, they nonetheless have scored 30, 27, and 27 points in their last 3 games, so there are signs of life. They've suffered a rash of injuries to top starters, so their long-term prognosis isn't likely to be very good. Along with their two losses, they have four close wins. They just aren't blowing people out like they used to.
4. Indianapolis - 5-2, Offense (#8 points, #12 yards); Defense (#8 points, #20 yards). They suffered a major injury when Reggie Wayne was lost for the season. Surprisingly, their passing offense isn't as good as you would think (just 21st in the NFL in yards per game). Their run defense is also not good (#29 in the NFL). Aside from their two losses, they have three close wins.
5. Denver - 7-1, Offense (#1 points, #1 yards); Defense (#26 points, #24 yards). Clearly a juggernaut on offense, they have plenty of blowout wins. But their defense is, simply put, very bad. The only team that has failed to score at least 20 points against them was the Jaguars, who still put up 19 on them. Denver has had games where they've given up 27, 48, and 39 points. They have also faced the 2nd weakest schedule in the AFC (.367 SOS). Moreover, they turn the ball over a ton - despite Peyton Manning's brilliance. Their 17 giveaways ranks 3rd worst in football.
6. San Diego - 4-3, Offense (#14 points, #4 yards); Defense (#9 points, #23 yards). Three losses, barely beat Philadelphia, and they're the Chargers. Teams pass on them at will (#26 passing defense). They get KC and Denver twice in the second half, plus Cincy and at Miami. This team is dangerous, but not exactly a dynamo.
NFC
1. Seattle - 7-1, Offense (#9 points, #15 yards); Defense (#3 points, #2 yards). Best record in the NFC, dynamic home field advantage, great defense, capable offense. Very good team. But they barely beat St. Louis, Carolina, and Houston, and had a close game against Tennessee. Sure, they crushed San Francisco at home, but when they are not at home, they're a different team. Average point differential: Home: +20.3; Road: +3.8. Fortunately for them, they have 5 home games left, and probably will have HFA throughout the playoffs.
2. New Orleans - 6-1, Offense (#5 points, #6 yards); Defense (#4 points, #12 yards). Great bounce-back year for the Saints, their only loss coming with 5 seconds left in New England. No shame there. But they've played the 2nd weakest schedule in the NFC, and other than their loss, two of their games were close (16-14 over terrible Tampa Bay, and 23-17 over hapless Atlanta). They don't run (#25 rushing offense) and they can't stop the run (#20 rushing defense). A game between New Orleans and Seattle would be very fun to watch.
3. Green Bay - 5-2, Offense (#3 points, #2 yards); Defense (#16 points, #11 yards). As long as Aaron Rodgers stays healthy, they're dangerous. They can be passed on (#21 pass defense), and other than their two losses, they also have one close win (by 2 over Baltimore). They don't turn it over (just 9 giveaways), but they are 2nd worst at generating turnovers (just 7 takeaways). So they rely on getting stops rather than turning you over.
4. Dallas - 4-4, Offense (#4 points, #14 yards); Defense (#17 points, #32 yards). Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that this team is wildly inconsistent. Explosive offense, and a sieve-like defense. Four losses, plus their close win against the Giants in week 1. They can't run the ball (#27), and they can't stop the pass (#32). It's Romo or bust for this team.
5. San Francisco - 6-2, Offense (#6 points, #13 yards); Defense (#7 points, #9 yards). A disappointing season for them defensively, but losing Aldon Smith doesn't exactly help. Great rushing offense, but the #31 ranked passing offense. Kaepernick just hasn't taken his game to the next level, though he's certainly a capable player. They've lost twice, and both were blowouts (29-3 vs Sea, and 27-7 vs Ind). And they have a close win over Green Bay. Very good team, but they've been manhandled a couple of times this year.
6. Detroit - 5-3, Offense (#7 points, #3 yards); Defense (#20 points, #25 yards). Three losses plus a somewhat miraculous win by one point over Dallas, and another close win over Washington, not exactly juggernauts. Their defense is disappointing, and they can't stop the pass (#25 in the NFL). They don't run the ball very well (#20).
Long story short, each of these contenders has strengths, and each has weaknesses. KC has played the best overall so far, but there are definitely concerns about them. No team is a juggernaut, not even Denver. Every team is flawed, which means that the playoff run should be very exciting, and it also means that New England very much has a puncher's chance, especially if the offense improves in the second half.
