NFLN: Brady or Manning

[Uncle Rico]

Brady has clearly had a better career and Manning the better season.

I didn't watch Denver/Indy but saw highlights and it appeared that after Manning took a big hit his arm went completely dead for awhile. From what i gather he recovered enough to have a decent game but I am really starting to wonder how well Manning's arm strength is going to hold up through the end of this season, and if he ends up in bad weather the Bronco's could pay dearly for it. Brady has clearly been off with his accuracy at times this season but his arm strength has been fine and there is no indication that he has lost any velocity at all, and if anything there have been times when it has looked even better than when he was younger.

I would love to see the Denver/NE game played in really nasty weather, it would be the great equalizer for the Patriots as they are at an obvious deficit at the skill positions.

When Manning was doing well in Denver last year, a lot of his backers in the media were quick to jump on the "he's doing it in Denver, in that weather" bandwagon. But I don't believe he played in one bad weather/cold game until the playoff loss to Baltimore.

I've never been to Denver, but it seems to me when I've watched late-season games there the weather has been relatively mild. I kept an eye it last year because I was curious about this, and it held true (until that one day vs Baltimore that was actually the only bitter cold day in a stretch of relative warmth.) And I believe the Pats playoff loss there after the '05 season was in fairly mild weather.

Anyway, just a long way of saying that folks who want to give PM credit for greatness "even in Denver" need to look at the actual conditions he's played in. Heck, there's a real good chance he won't play in any genuinely cold games through the end of this year. Yet people will look at his stats and see "Denver" and say ..."see"!

(Not a hater, I acknowledge PM's greatness, just saying weather has been much more a part of TFB's career, and will continue to be)

 

[Kontradiction]

Manning has easily better weapons surrounding him that are getting open more quickly than Thompkins and Dobson have been, meaning he hasn't been under nearly as much pressure as Brady has been either. So, naturally, he's having the better season of the two (Manning's TD numbers right now are already better than Brady's projected year-end totals). This could, and probably will, change with Amendola, Gronk, and Edelman all on the field together.

 

[ivanvamp]

I'm as big a Brady ballwasher as there is here (well, close anyway), but there's no question his performance is way under par this year so far. First, let's start with the hard numbers:

#14 in the NFL in yards (1,708)
#3 in the NFL in attempts (285), and thus
#30 in the NFL in yards per attempt (5.99)
#29 in the NFL in completion % (55.4%)
#16 in the NFL in TD passes (8)
#26 in the NFL in passer rating (75.3)

Those numbers are U-G-L-Y. By those numbers alone, without context, he would be one of the worst QBs in the NFL this year.

But we know that they come within a context. For example, he has been sacked the 5th most times in the NFL, so we know he's been under a lot of pressure. He's playing with a ton of new receivers, including three rookies. His receivers are at or near the top of the NFL in drops (Thompkins at #1 with 7, Dobson at #4 with 6, and Edelman at #7 with 5). And we've seen a lot of bad routes by the receivers. Moreover, he's been missing some of his key guys for huge chunks of the year (Gronk, Vereen, Amendola).

However, Brady has also missed some wide open guys. He missed Dobson for a TD early in the season. He hit Amendola in the Cincy game near the goal line, but if that was a better pass, Amendola walks into the end zone. Instead, it was a bad throw and he got tackled at the one. He missed a wide open Amendola against the Saints that would have been an easy score. He's made some horrible decisions and made some awful throws.

The reason is probably pretty complex - a combination of bad decisions, poor play by his receivers, the need to take time to work out the timing with his receivers and to know for sure where they'll be, the line needs to play better, etc.

 

[Ring 6]

Comparing accuracy throwing to wide open receivers with no rushers anywhere near you, to throwing to a rookie WR who you really arent sure which way he will break the route, while under the duress of a heavy rush is like comparing an apple and an orange.

Last season Brady targeted Wes Welker on 27% of his passes. Welker caught 68% of them.
This season Brady has targetted Thompkins and Dobson on 34% of his passes and they have caught 46% of them.
2012 to anyone not named Welker = 61.1%.
2013 to amyone not named Thompkins or Dobson = 60.4%
I think it is obvious where the problem lies.

If Thomkins and Dobson caught 3 passes a game that they haven't Brady's completion % would equal last year. Anyone who hasnt seen 3 should have been caught passes, especially when you include them running the wrong route is not watching.

We could further illustrate this by looking at the targets of the passes that went to Gronk last season, where 70% of them of them were completed.

It ain't Brady.

 

[ivanvamp]

Last season Brady targeted Wes Welker on 27% of his passes. Welker caught 68% of them.
This season Brady has targetted Thompkins and Dobson on 34% of his passes and they have caught 46% of them.
2012 to anyone not named Welker = 61.1%.
2013 to amyone not named Thompkins or Dobson = 60.4%
I think it is obvious where the problem lies.

If Thomkins and Dobson caught 3 passes a game that they haven't Brady's completion % would equal last year. Anyone who hasnt seen 3 should have been caught passes, especially when you include them running the wrong route is not watching.

We could further illustrate this by looking at the targets of the passes that went to Gronk last season, where 70% of them of them were completed.

It ain't Brady.

It's partially Brady for sure. Just as an example (and I know it was Gronk's first game back and that was definitely a factor), but this past week Brady targeted Gronk a whopping 17 times, with just 8 completions (47.1%) plus a pick-six (on a forced pass attempt to Gronk).

It ain't just the receivers.

 

[Ring 6]

It's partially Brady for sure. Just as an example (and I know it was Gronk's first game back and that was definitely a factor), but this past week Brady targeted Gronk a whopping 17 times, with just 8 completions (47.1%) plus a pick-six (on a forced pass attempt to Gronk).

It ain't just the receivers.

Brady targetted Gronk 17 times because no one else was getting open.

It's the receivers.

 

[Huckleberry1]

It isn't any one thing, it is everything, and they are going to have to improve in every area to turn back into one of the better offenses in football. While I don't see Brady playing at the level we are used to I don't believe it is his talent or ability that is the issue, I think he is every bit as good a player as he has been for years, I think the problem is holistic, but starts with the lack of connection between his receivers and him, and his focus on Gronkowski imo points directly to that. Brady relies on timing and accuracy and right now they simply aren't all on the same page. It look like they both going to have to get healthy at the skill positions and continue working with the young guys to get everyone on the same page but i still think that's possible by the time the play-offs roll around. They need Amendola and Vereen back in the mix and they really need to run the ball regardless of whether or not they are getting stuffed at times, because this OL needs balance to be successful. It is going to be a tough haul to get into the play-offs imo but if they do they can still be really dangerous when they get there.

 

[borg]

Last season Brady targeted Wes Welker on 27% of his passes. Welker caught 68% of them.
This season Brady has targetted Thompkins and Dobson on 34% of his passes and they have caught 46% of them.
2012 to anyone not named Welker = 61.1%.
2013 to amyone not named Thompkins or Dobson = 60.4%
I think it is obvious where the problem lies.

If Thomkins and Dobson caught 3 passes a game that they haven't Brady's completion % would equal last year. Anyone who hasnt seen 3 should have been caught passes, especially when you include them running the wrong route is not watching.

We could further illustrate this by looking at the targets of the passes that went to Gronk last season, where 70% of them of them were completed.

It ain't Brady.

All you've proven is Brady is a more accurate 4 yd passer but his accuracy diminishes as his target radius expands...unless in your mind Thompkins and Dobson are slot WRs like WW.
You're "2013 to anyone not named Thompkins or Dobson = 60.4%" stat tells us this year Brady is hitting his slot guys DA/JE at a 60.4% rate....worse than last year by 7%....So in other words, Brady is less accurate all over the field.
A 47% completion rate to Gronk.....who gets blamed for that....Not Tommy the ageless wonder?

 

[Huckleberry1]

all you've proven is brady is a more accurate 4 yd passer but his accuracy diminishes as his target radius expands...unless in your mind thompkins and dobson are slot wrs like ww.
You're "2013 to anyone not named thompkins or dobson = 60.4%" stat tells us this year brady is hitting his slot guys da/je at a 60.4% rate....worse than last year by 7%....so in other words, brady is less accurate all over the field.

troll......

 

[ivanvamp]

Brady targetted Gronk 17 times because no one else was getting open.

It's the receivers.

It's not just the receivers. It's the receivers, it's the offensive line, it's the injuries, it's the inexperience, and yes, it's also Brady.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Brady targetted Gronk 17 times because no one else was getting open.

It's the receivers.

I think it's more than just getting open, i think it is confidence he will go where he is supposed to go, be where he is supposed to be, and that Brady knows he can throw him open if he needs to. The back shoulder play to Dobson last week that he never read and overran was a good example of this. Often times it is just a matter of a few feet that they are off but Brady and the receivers have been on the wrong page too often this season. i puit the bulk of the blame on the receivers for this but it has definitely been the case.

 

[upstater1]

When Manning was doing well in Denver last year, a lot of his backers in the media were quick to jump on the "he's doing it in Denver, in that weather" bandwagon. But I don't believe he played in one bad weather/cold game until the playoff loss to Baltimore.

I've never been to Denver, but it seems to me when I've watched late-season games there the weather has been relatively mild. I kept an eye it last year because I was curious about this, and it held true (until that one day vs Baltimore that was actually the only bitter cold day in a stretch of relative warmth.) And I believe the Pats playoff loss there after the '05 season was in fairly mild weather.

Anyway, just a long way of saying that folks who want to give PM credit for greatness "even in Denver" need to look at the actual conditions he's played in. Heck, there's a real good chance he won't play in any genuinely cold games through the end of this year. Yet people will look at his stats and see "Denver" and say ..."see"!

(Not a hater, I acknowledge PM's greatness, just saying weather has been much more a part of TFB's career, and will continue to be)

I was in Denver/Boulder for the first time in my life this late September, just after the floods. I was stunned by how much of an impact the thin air/high elevation makes on your body. Dehydration, fatigue, headaches, nausea. I've been skiing before in the European Alps, where you can smell the chemical composition of the air, but this was walking around in 80 degree weather and walking up hills in downtown Boulder.

 

[upstater1]

I am not playing until Brady start hitting his young WR's in stride and his Receivers in turn catch to football cleanly.

You might have to wait a long time because Brady has thrown to perfect bombs to Dobson, and the kid misjudges them by slowing down. He's not going to improve on that part of his game anytime soon. Those are balls skills, pure and simple. I bet Thompkins actually has better skills in that regard, but he doesn't have the speed.

 

[borg]

troll......

GFY Ivan......deal with the facts everyone once in a while. Brady's 34th in yds/attempt...pitiful. Four rookie QBs that are also new to their receiving corps are flashing better completion%'s. Sorry to muddy up your eternal Brady worship but the guy has been subpar most of the year. Take the rose colored glasses off and stop blaming everyone but Brady.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Comparing accuracy throwing to wide open receivers with no rushers anywhere near you, to throwing to a rookie WR who you really arent sure which way he will break the route, while under the duress of a heavy rush is like comparing an apple and an orange.

Have you been watching Broncos games? Did you not see Peyton get sacked four times this past week? Manning has been anything but "no rushers anywhere near you". According to Advanced NFL stats, the Broncos' line has surrendered 23 hits and 10 sacks vs. 28 and 17 for the Patriots. Which meshes pretty well with the eyeball test: Manning has had better protection and has been able to get rid of the ball quicker on account of his receivers, but he's getting hit plenty too.

In fact, the Broncos' line hasn't really impressed me at all, especially since they lost Clady. Manning is making them look a lot better than they are. He's responded by getting the ball out a lot faster than Brady's been able to. And yes, that is largely because of his receivers, but we've also seen Brady miss a lot of open receivers (and that includes Edelman, Amendola, and Gronk, so it's not just rookies).

Let's just be objective for one second and admit that, so far in 2013, Manning has clearly been better than Brady.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

A 47% completion rate to Gronk.....who gets blamed for that....Not Tommy the ageless wonder?

A)tiny sample size?
B)rust for a guy getting meaningful snaps for the first time in 10 months?
C)lack of other viable targets?
D)unusually good Jets defense
E)unusually poor OL play?

I'd go with some blend of all of the above A)-E) before jumping both feet on the Brady suddenly sucks bandwagon. Maybe a QB decline is blended in there too, but don't act as if there are not a whole host of variables that confound making such a simple-minded conclusion.

 

[juny]

So brady has had no weapons so far this season (except for flashes of amendola here and there and gronk last week). Other really good QBs (Luck, Rodgers) have lost their best weapon(s), so it would be interesting to see how well those guys do with their depleted WR corps compared to brady

 

[Huckleberry1]

GFY Ivan......deal with the facts everyone once in a while. Brady's 34th in yds/attempt...pitiful. Four rookie QBs that are also new to their receiving corps are flashing better completion%'s. Sorry to muddy up your eternal Brady worship but the guy has been subpar most of the year. Take the rose colored glasses off and stop blaming everyone but Brady.

You have one gear and one purpose, your one gear is negativity and your one purpose is to push people's buttons and piss them off. You have never posted anything positive about a team that has been the most successful franchise in pro sports for over 10 years. I don't believe you are a patriot's fan in any way shape or form, and i do believe that you are simply one of those really lame people whose sole purpose in life is to go into different forum and do whatever you can to piss off the people who post there.


As for the GFY, I am pretty much positive that is exactly what 99% of the posters in this forum want you to do, Patsfan 2 excluded because he lives on the exact same wavelength you do, the one that only exudes misery.

 

[Huckleberry1]

gfy ivan......deal with the facts everyone once in a while. Brady's 34th in yds/attempt...pitiful. Four rookie qbs that are also new to their receiving corps are flashing better completion%'s. Sorry to muddy up your eternal brady worship but the guy has been subpar most of the year. Take the rose colored glasses off and stop blaming everyone but brady.

troll......

 

[Ring 6]

All you've proven is Brady is a more accurate 4 yd passer but his accuracy diminishes as his target radius expands

Wrong

...unless in your mind Thompkins and Dobson are slot WRs like WW.
You're "2013 to anyone not named Thompkins or Dobson = 60.4%" stat tells us this year Brady is hitting his slot guys DA/JE at a 60.4% rate....worse than last year by 7%....So in other words, Brady is less accurate all over the field.

Wromg

A 47% completion rate to Gronk.....who gets blamed for that....Not Tommy the ageless wonder?

Im not going to waste my time explaining how levels of wrong you are here.