The Dolphins have one of the weaker run defenses that the Pats have played thus far (placing 15th, only New Orleans ranks lower out of the teams we've played). They're weak against the run, particularly up the middle, which should give Connolly and Wendell some much needed relief. The Pats need to pound the ball at them with a steady dose of the running game and force those safeties up to help contain the run. This should give Brady PA options down the field to Amendola or up the seam to Gronk (should they both be good to go this week).
That said, expect that get back what we'd give. The Pats run defense currently ranks 31st in the NFL.
True, but that is based on total yards. The primary reason for that number (127 yards per game) is because of the amount of runs they have faced (also 2nd most in the NFL). I think the number of runs the Pats have faced is skewed from facing offenses that are very run-oriented (Jets twice, Buffalo) and Cincy relying heavily on the run due to the elements.
To me a better way of comparing run defenses would be to look at yards per carry. The Patriots are 4.0 yards per rush, with twelve teams averaging more.
Much has been made of Chris Ivory running for 104 yards and the Jets rushing for 177 yards last week, but Ivory averaged a mere 3.1 yards per run, and the Jets were at just 3.4 yards per carry. Frankly I will take those 3.1 and 3.4 yardage stats for my defense anytime at all.
On the other hand I do agree wholeheartedly that the Patriots should run the ball more. The Pats averaged 4.5 yards per carry last week; their problem was that they only ran it 20 times, while dropping back to pass 50 times. They were too predictable and too often in poor down and distance situations; that led to an abysmal third down conversion rate of 1-12.
Patriots Offensive play calls this year:
Run - Pass - Result - (% of run plays)
34
-- 30
-- 23-21 win at Buffalo (53%)
24
-- 40
-- 13-10 win vs Jets (38%)
33
-- 39
-- 23-3 win vs Bucs (46%)
31
-- 31
-- 30-23 win at Atlanta (50%)
18
-- 42
-- 13-6 loss at Cincinnati (30%)
35
-- 48
-- 30-27 win vs Saints (42%)
20
-- 50
-- 30-27 loss at Jets (29%)
Play calls versus Pats defense this year:
Run - Pass - Team - YPC - % of run plays
34
-- 27
-- Buff
-- 4.0
-- 48%
32
-- 39
-- Jets
-- 4.0
-- 45%
22
-- 44
-- T.B.
-- 4.4
-- 33%
15
-- 56
-- Atl.
-- 3.9
-- 21%
39
-- 31
-- Cin.
-- 4.2
-- 56%
26
-- 37
-- N.O.
-- 5.0
-- 41%
52 -- 37
-- Jets
-- 3.4
-- 58%
* Pass = dropbacks, i.e., pass attempts + sacks
