This game is going to get settled based on three things, like most games:
1) Turnovers. Can't afford to do what we did last week and expect to win. Zero is the goal this week. Mistake-free football.
2) Pats DL vs. Jets OL. Chandler Jones needs to draw double teams and/or win one-on-one against Brick. Simple as that. No Mangold should mean a fun day for Wilfork - we need a dominant, 2011 Ravens AFCCG-like performance out of him.
3) Pats OL vs. Jets DL. This is less about protection and more about running it. If the Pats can run on the Jets (a tough task) it will give NE field position control. NY will dial up a few creative blitzes and sack Brady 2-3 times, but we have to give him a pocket most of the rest of the time. If Ryan decides to all-out blitz and dare our WRs to win in man coverage, we need the OL to give the WRs at least 2-2.5 seconds to break free.
The skill positions for both teams frankly stink. The front sevens for both teams are good. The Jets have a better secondary but the Patriots have the better OL and QB. Plus this is a home game and it's the Jets, so you know that Brady has had this one circled like every year.
Ultimately, I see this as a 17-13 type of affair which will excite no one on national TV but Pats fans everywhere will breathe a sigh of relief when it is over. Brady's YPA will be like 6 but if he can avoid turnovers, convert 3rd downs near 50% and we can run for 4 YPC, we will get 3-4 scores (TD or FG).