Buffalo Bills Safety Jairus Byrd trying to be traded

[Ring 6]

Sources: Byrd, agent trying to orchestrate trade - Sports - The Buffalo News

Reasons why we won't trade for him:

1) Precedent is against it
2) his salary/franchise tag
3) he's currently injured
4) he wants a new contract
5) even though it's the perennially basement-dwelling Bills, they are a divisional opponent, and would likely ask for a premium

Reasons why we should trade for him:

1) ******* Steve Gregory
2) we can afford it

Discuss...

Extremely, extremely overrated. Would be crucified on this board within a month.

 

[Kontradiction]

Correct me, if i´m wrong.

Byrd is on franchise tag. So we have to spend an 1rd pick, right?
Thanks, but no way.

You wouldn't give a lower first round pick to a team that just drafted EJ Manuel in the first round for a top flight safety that would all but finally solidify the defensive backfield? I know I would.

 

[belichick010405]

Byrd and McCourty play the same role so there is no way someone like BB and Caserio are going to be willing to spend a high draft pick on a player who has contract issues and is dealing with a foot injury.

As for Ninkovich - yea, someone is going to give him a big contract. Just look at the deal that Cushing got this week. As for his replacement - his names are Michael Buchanan, Jake Bequette and Jamie Collins with Buchanan and Collins probably replacing Ninkovich.

 

[skspikex2]

Correct me, if i´m wrong.

Byrd is on franchise tag. So we have to spend an 1rd pick, right?
Thanks, but no way.

Even it wont ever happen, regardless I would gladly if the pats trade first round for a legit extremely good safety than have the pats blow high 2nd rounder or 3rd rounder who wont contribute and get cut after 2 or 3 seasons.

 

[FoxWhiskey]

You wouldn't give a lower first round pick to a team that just drafted EJ Manuel in the first round for a top flight safety that would all but finally solidify the defensive backfield? I know I would.

First point:

I was searching for a clarification, that i understand the rule correctly( my english is not the best, but i try to fix it).

Second point:

No, i wouldn´t give a first round pick, even a lower, for Byrd.

This guy want a big paycheck. In worst case, he will gone after one season or you have to franchise him again( if possible-i´m not sure).
I doubt it, we have enough cap room for his actually salary.

 

[Ive_Killed_People]

Why not just let him ruin his worth in Buffalo this year while he is recovering sign him next year on a prove it contract. Lose nothing , get him in cheap for a year,little risk.

 

[Kontradiction]

First point:

I was searching for a clarification, that i understand the rule correctly( my english is not the best, but i try to fix it).

Second point:

No, i wouldn´t give a first round pick, even a lower, for Byrd.

This guy want a big paycheck. In worst case, he will gone after one season or you have to franchise him again( if possible-i´m not sure).
I doubt it, we have enough cap room for his actually salary.

There are a few ways to give Byrd the contact he would be looking for, for the years he's looking for, while not killing yourself in the short term. This team has been doing it for years. That said, I don't see them shelling out the coin and the draft pick for Byrd, but that's not what the thread was looking for. The thread was looking for the poster's opinion on whether we should trade for him. I would like it, and would do it for the reasons I gave. The team, on the other hand? Probably not.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Re: Bills Safety Jairus Byrd trying to be traded

The Patriots really aren't in a position to trade a high draft choice and it will take a first to get Byrd, the Bills aren't going to take a pick in the 60's for him. beyond that he wants way too much and they are going to pay McCourty in the near future. At this point i would much rather see them get Talib signed to a 4 year deal, if they can they may have their secondary in really good shape for the next few years, and if safety was still a concern after this season they should be able to get a really good one late in the first at a much better price.

 

[nabwong]

Damn. We just cut tebow

 

[BTTA]

Extremely, extremely overrated. Would be crucified on this board within a month.

From what I'm reading around the internets, he's generally rated as a top 5 safety. Where does he rightfully belong in your view?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Correct me, if i´m wrong.

Byrd is on franchise tag. So we have to spend an 1rd pick, right?
Thanks, but no way.

The two(!) first-round pick price is for signing a franchise-tagged player to an offer sheet that the other team declines to match.

Once the player has signed the tag, he can be traded for any compensation the team can get (e.g., the Pats franchised Tebucky Jones and then traded him for a bunch of late(ish) picks).

 

[Huckleberry1]

The two(!) first-round pick price is for signing a franchise-tagged player to an offer sheet that the other team declines to match.

Once the player has signed the tag, he can be traded for any compensation the team can get (e.g., the Pats franchised Tebucky Jones and then traded him for a bunch of late(ish) picks).

I thought they got a high second for Tebucky from the saints?

 

[Ring 6]

From what I'm reading around the internets, he's generally rated as a top 5 safety. Where does he rightfully belong in your view?

Very average.

 

[Ring 6]

There are a few ways to give Byrd the contact he would be looking for, for the years he's looking for, while not killing yourself in the short term. This team has been doing it for years. That said, I don't see them shelling out the coin and the draft pick for Byrd, but that's not what the thread was looking for. The thread was looking for the poster's opinion on whether we should trade for him. I would like it, and would do it for the reasons I gave. The team, on the other hand? Probably not.

There is no way to pay big money to a mediocre player and not hurt your team, not to mention giving up draft picks.
Of course you seem to think he is a standout. I have not seen that in watching him. I think he is a clear case of a guy who gets some picks causing him to be overrated while he allows a ton of plays against him.

 

[TyronePoole]

Definitely don't think byrd is "very average," he basically ranks top five to six in most statistical measures and plays in a horrid secondary. He'd be a big upgrade.

 

[JackBauer]

I'd want to know if Harmon is worth anything before expending more capital on the safety position.

 

[Ring 6]

Definitely don't think byrd is "very average," he basically ranks top five to six in most statistical measures and plays in a horrid secondary. He'd be a big upgrade.

He is part of the horrid secondary. Judging defenders by statistics is a very dangerous thing. I'll take the DB who has less stats because he covers his man and makest he QB throw elsewhere. Byrd is not buidling his stats as a run stopper, thats for sure. Most of those stats are from receivers being open.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Yeah i am not so high on Byrd as most. But for the bills..he is a huge part of that D even if it does suck. Without him and Gilmore..sanchez may or may not get a TD or 2.

 

[TyronePoole]

Re: Re: Buffalo Bills Safety Jairus Byrd trying to be traded

He is part of the horrid secondary. Judging defenders by statistics is a very dangerous thing. I'll take the DB who has less stats because he covers his man and makest he QB throw elsewhere. Byrd is not buidling his stats as a run stopper, thats for sure. Most of those stats are from receivers being open.

This is just based on ignorance of stats, your hypothesis makes zero sense especially since the best playmaking safeties have always produced strong counting stats (unless you want to just boil water ed reed's exceptional PD's and INTs last year to his getting picked on lol). He's a ballhawking safety which in today's NFL is >>>>>>>>than a safety whose forte is run stopping. We are already a good run stopping defense and running is nowhere near as efficient for offenses as passing is.

But anyway, some background on the following statistics:

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/defenderstats.php?year=2012&pos=S&season=reg

Positive Win Probability Added (+WPA) – The Win Probability Added attributed to a defensive player, limited to only the plays that are net positives for his team. It is a measure of a defender’s impact on the outcome of games in terms of play-making ability. Only positive plays are considered for individual defenders because very good individual plays can still result in net losses in WPA. For example, a safety who makes a shoe-string tackle to stop a TD would be a great individual play, but the play as a whole would still be a net negative outcome for his team. However, overall individual WPA likely correlates well with +WPA.

Positive Expected Points Added (+EPA) -- The Expected Points Added attributed to a defensive player, limited to only the plays that are net positives for his team. It is a measure of a defender’s impact on the game score in terms of play-making ability. Like for +WPA, only positive plays are considered for individual defenders because very good individual defensive plays can still result in net losses in EPA. However, overall individual EPA likely correlates well with +EPA.

Positive Expected Points Added per Game (+EPA/G) – The measure of a defender’s impact on the outcome of his team’s games on a per-game basis. Like +EPA, +EPA/G is limited to positive plays for individual players.

Success Count (SC) – The number of plays in which a player was directly involved that would typically be considered successful. Specifically, SC is the number of plays resulting in positive Expected Points Added (EPA). SC is used primarily for individual defenders, because they should not be penalized for making tackles even if the offense has improved it's EP.

Now, here's where byrd ranked last year in these categories:

1) +WPA - 4th (1.49)
2) +EPA - 5th (46.1)
3) +EPA/G - 7th (2.88)
4) SC - 13th (40)

Note that the last one is a counting stat that puts him in the top echelon of starting safeties and is the stat which is most reliant on teammate performance. It is simply impossible to show up so universally positively in these stats AND have the counting stats simply because "you are getting thrown at because you aren't covering your man." Your analysis doesnt make any sense and it makes even less sense considering how bad the secondary as a whole was/is.

 

[Ring 6]

This is just based on ignorance of stats, your hypothesis makes zero sense especially since the best playmaking safeties have always produced strong counting stats (unless you want to just boil water ed reed's exceptional PD's and INTs last year to his getting picked on lol). He's a ballhawking safety which in today's NFL is >>>>>>>>than a safety whose forte is run stopping. We are already a good run stopping defense and running is nowhere near as efficient for offenses as passing is.

But anyway, some background on the following statistics:

Advanced NFL Stats Player Statistics









Now, here's where byrd ranked last year in these categories:

1) +WPA - 4th (1.49)
2) +EPA - 5th (46.1)
3) +EPA/G - 7th (2.88)
4) SC - 13th (40)

Note that the last one is a counting stat that puts him in the top echelon of starting safeties and is the stat which is most reliant on teammate performance. It is simply impossible to show up so universally positively in these stats AND have the counting stats simply because "you are getting thrown at because you aren't covering your man." Your analysis doesnt make any sense and it makes even less sense considering how bad the secondary as a whole was/is.

My 'analysis' is what I see when I watch him play.
Once again judging defenders by stats is shaky at best, and taking someone elses created numbers and using them out of context is worse.
Note that you are judging a safety by metrics qualified with:
limited to only the plays that are net positives for his team

I'm not extremely surprised he ranked well in that regard, but you are ignoring all of the negative plays.