Downplaying our team's expectations despite personnel losses?

[Oswlek]

I think the defense actually played pretty well in 2010 against the Jets. And against the Giants in the SB.

The problem is twofold. One, playing well is not winning the game. Sure, it should have been enough to win, the offense should have performed better. But that's still putting pressure on Brady and the offense to always be good-great. It would be nice for once if the defense just clamped down and dominated and won a game for us for once in the playoffs. We've seen the offense do it, but the defense has yet to win us a playoff game.

The second problem is the offense has collapsed. Better defenses, and defenses are allowed to get away with much more in the playoffs. The Ravens were all but jumping on Patriots players backs- and the problem with having a bunch of 5'3 130 pound receivers is that they can't fight it off and beat that physicality.

We do so well in the regular season because teams aren't allowed to commit murder in the secondary but in the playoffs refs are much less likely to call it. We haven't had that guy who could beat it and make plays for us downfield and punish defenses for playing so aggressively- in the box and up tight on receivers. Gronk in the past two post seasons got hurt and Welker/Branch in 2010 couldn't do it.

The defense wasn't awful in 2010, but they certainly weren't good, and they allowed a terrible TD drive right when it looked like NE might be getting back into the game. I also think you can't overlook the Sanchez factor. He was pretty bad in that game, a better QB puts together at least 2 more extended drives.

I can't fully agree with the rest of your post, though. The defense did win the 2011 AFCCG despite a poor game from Brady and a -2 TO differential. They came up with three huge stops in the second half just as the offense and special teams were trying to give the game away.

As for the 2012 loss, NE had plenty of chances with plenty of open receivers, just did more to shut themselves down than Baltimore did, at least in the first half. Sure, they didn't have a killer downfield threat, but guys were still getting open. And it is hard to blame the team too much when their elite passing threat either was a non-factor or not even in the game. Would Baltimore have even advanced to the AFCCG if they lost Boldin? I doubt it.

Now, all that said, I do agree that they needed to get more physical at WR, and they apparently think so too, judging by the rebuild. That was part of what I meant by "an offense that travels with them in the playoffs." We're on the same page there, I just think you are making things a little too cut and dry with the analysis.

 

[Oswlek]

But no, we are not one of the best teams in the NFL.

:suspicious::noidea:

 

[Deus Irae]

The defense was disappointing against NY in 2010, no doubt, particularly after playing well down the stretch.

In 2011, however, they dominated a bad Denver offense, won the AFCCG almost singlehandedly and held a very good NY squad to 19 points. I see people mention the TOP a lot, but that overlooks two critical factors.

1) Brady's unforced error that led to a safety and putting the defense back on the field with only one play of rest. A good drive there and TOP is even. Hell, just two firsts and a punt and the TOP split is acceptable.

2) More importantly, though, is the fact that NE wanted NY to run. Any play that ended without a forward pass attempt was seen as a win. Why else start White and play in nickle/dime most of the game?

NE's DL didn't hold up their end of the bargain, but the Patriots were perfectly willing to trade a few long FG drives to negate killer pass plays. And it worked well enough to win had the offense done their share.

In 2012, they played well enough to win against Hou and then held Baltimore to 7 first half points before collapsing in the second half. That's the same team that put 21 first half points up on SF just two weeks later, so it isn't as if they let a bunch of stiffs up and down the field. And a strong case could be made that injury was a factor in the second half issues.

No, I'm not overrating anything. 26 is more than enough to win, assuming that NE puts together an offense that travels with them in the playoffs. That's been the big issue in recent years more than anything.

2011 got abused by NY to the point where DSS should probably have stepped in, and the Ravens rolled them in the second half last year.

Yes, you're wildly overrating that defense.

 

[Oswlek]

2011 got abused by NY to the point where DSS should probably have stepped in, and the Ravens rolled them in the second half last year.

Yes, you're wildly overrating that defense.

19 points?

You are stretching things a great deal here, my friend. :thumb:

 

[patsinthesnow]

Here's what it comes down to, were in the right conference. If we were in the NFC, I'd be pessimistic going into this season. Knowing we'd have to get by these four teams to just get to the superbowl, well, I'd be throwing in the towel

Seahawks
49ers
Packers
Falcons

Throw in teams like the Giants, Redskins, Bears, Saints, and the NFC is loaded.

However, were in the AFC, the once great conference that has diminished to be the significantly weaker conference.

-We have Brady and BB, we will win the division and make the playoffs. IMO, I like the patriots against ANY of the potential AFC playoff teams 1 on 1 if I was a betting man:

Broncos
Texans
Bengals
Colts
Steelers
Ravens
Dolphins

My expectation will be for the Pats to reach the Superbowl, like always.

 

[Huckleberry1]

But no, we are not one of the best teams in the NFL.

I will believe that when I see it, predictions of demise come almost every year and every year they are still one of the best teams in the league. They sure won't make the fantasy geeks horny but the real thing is still very different from fantasy.

 

[fnordcircle]

16-0, I drink the Patriots koolaid off of your mom's tits, I don't care. Nom, nom, nom.

I'll start predicting down seasons when I see it. Our offensive losses will be offset by defensive improvements.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

16-0, I drink the Patriots koolaid off of your mom's tits, I don't care. Nom, nom, nom.

I'll start predicting down seasons when I see it. Our offensive losses will be offset by defensive improvements.

4 points away from 15-1 last year. Just sayin', could be 2007 sequel with a SB win or could be a disaster. We will not know until the last game they play.

 

[Oswlek]

4 points away from 15-1 last year. Just sayin', could be 2007 sequel with a SB win or could be a disaster. We will not know until the last game they play.

And the 1 was a tie game late in the 4th quarter.

I'll get worried if Brady gets hurt or the NFL announces that 2013 will be a season long replacement ref reunion tour. Until either of those happens, I'm penciling them in for 12 wins. :rocker:

 

[Archeryaddict12]

And the 1 was a tie game late in the 4th quarter.

I'll get worried if Brady gets hurt or the NFL announces that 2013 will be a season long replacement ref reunion tour. Until either of those happens, I'm penciling them in for 12 wins. :rocker:

I have them at 13-14 wins. 1 surprise loss and then 1 or 2 where we are close but just can't finish it off. But overall I think this team will be more balanced and a better playoff team.

 

[fnordcircle]

4 points away from 15-1 last year. Just sayin', could be 2007 sequel with a SB win or could be a disaster. We will not know until the last game they play.

What's a disaster?

It'd be shocking if we don't win the division again. Will we vie for a first round bye? I think so but if we don't I wouldn't call that a disaster.

Buffalo is going to have a mulligan year as EJ steps into the starter role. Same with the Jets and Geno but the Jets have even more problems than the Bills who at least have all the offensive pieces.

Miami looks like team that is rapidly becoming solid on paper but I'm not sold on Tannehill as a guy who will get it done, just yet, and I've though that Mike Wallace would get hugely overpaid all along - in fact I wasn't very interested in him coming here at all. If all of their new pieces come together they might be a team that is almost as good as ours. But that's a lot of ifs.

 

[mgteich]

The main people who question the Super Bowl chances of the patriots post on message boards or are die-hard fans of other teams and, of course, believe that their team will win.

No team is ever a lock for the Super Bowl. Those who bet real money have the patriots as one of the four most likely team to win the Super Bowl (actually tied for 2nd most likely). IMHO, we have as good a chance this year than in any other season except 2004 and 2007.

Having said this, there is every reason for us to be concerned, even on a team where we bring back all of our starters except Love and Welker. As many have said, we have every reason to believe that we are VERY likely to be in the playoffs. Obviously, how well we do is determined by a lot factors. Sometimes there is really a hot team, that seems almost destined to win. Sometimes we have a key injury or two at precisely the wrong time. Sometimes the ball bounces right and sometimes wrong.

There are only two sets of fans that should have their eyes on the playoffs: fans of the patriots and those of denver. All the rest need to wait and hope. And yes, I know that s$it can happen and the pats or denver could fold, but it is unlikely. Of course, the players do NOT focus on the division or on the playoffs or on the Super Bowl. Their focus is always on the next game, as should be the case.

 

[ATippett56]

Having said this, there is every reason for us to be concerned, even on a team where we bring back all of our starters except Love and Welker.

.... and Aaron Hernandez and Brandon Lloyd.

 

[Kontradiction]

What's a disaster?

It'd be shocking if we don't win the division again. Will we vie for a first round bye? I think so but if we don't I wouldn't call that a disaster.

Buffalo is going to have a mulligan year as EJ steps into the starter role. Same with the Jets and Geno but the Jets have even more problems than the Bills who at least have all the offensive pieces.

Miami looks like team that is rapidly becoming solid on paper but I'm not sold on Tannehill as a guy who will get it done, just yet, and I've though that Mike Wallace would get hugely overpaid all along - in fact I wasn't very interested in him coming here at all. If all of their new pieces come together they might be a team that is almost as good as ours. But that's a lot of ifs.

A mulligan is putting it nicely. Buffalo is going to be a disaster. E.J. Manuel is awful. That was a horrible first round pick for them.

 

[tonyto3690]

No team is ever a lock for the Super Bowl. Those who bet real money have the patriots as one of the four most likely team to win the Super Bowl (actually tied for 2nd most likely). IMHO, we have as good a chance this year than in any other season except 2004 and 2007.

Vegas odds are not based on who they think will win. It's based on who they think people will bet to win.

Having said this, there is every reason for us to be concerned, even on a team where we bring back all of our starters except Love and Welker.

And Lloyd and Hernandez. Love is a mediocre role player, but still a starter. Welker and Hernandez are both elite players and would be in our top 5 most talented players on our team if they were still on it. Acting like losing them is no big deal is pretty ridiculous.

Last year we won games because our offense scored the 3rd most points in NFL history. We lost 2 stars on offense along with a solid #2 option. Please put down the kool aid. Those are some big losses.

People are way too comfortable to put everything on Bradys shoulders to carry the team. We've asked him to do that to various degrees for the past 6 years.. and we have zero championships because of it. No single player has ever carried a team to the SB victory podium. Ever.

As many have said, we have every reason to believe that we are VERY likely to be in the playoffs. Obviously, how well we do is determined by a lot factors. Sometimes there is really a hot team, that seems almost destined to win. Sometimes we have a key injury or two at precisely the wrong time. Sometimes the ball bounces right and sometimes wrong.

I don't think anyone thinks we won't make the playoffs.

The difference is that in past years we rightfully viewed our team as favorites to win the Superbowl. This year we clearly are not. That doesn't mean it's a doomed season. It doesn't mean we have no chance. It just means we are not as good as we were relative to the league and we're going to need some lucky breaks to win the SB. We can not just out-talent the opposing team anymore. We've seen first hand in 2007 that talent doesn't always win, but it sure as hell makes you more likely to win.



There are only two sets of fans that should have their eyes on the playoffs: fans of the patriots and those of denver. All the rest need to wait and hope. And yes, I know that s$it can happen and the pats or denver could fold, but it is unlikely. Of course, the players do NOT focus on the division or on the playoffs or on the Super Bowl. Their focus is always on the next game, as should be the case.[/QUOTE]

 

[Deus Irae]

19 points?

You are stretching things a great deal here, my friend. :thumb:

You're only looking at the scoring. I'm looking at 1st downs, yardage, TOP, turnovers, etc...

Outside of an "end of half" 1 play drive, the Giants never had a drive of less than 7 plays, never gained fewer than 22 yards, and scored on half their drives. They were able to limit the number of drives, keep the Patriots offense on the sideline, and change the field position situation, time and again.

 

[Oswlek]

You're only looking at the scoring. I'm looking at 1st downs, yardage, TOP, turnovers, etc...

Outside of an "end of half" 1 play drive, the Giants never had a drive of less than 7 plays, never gained fewer than 22 yards, and scored on half their drives. They were able to limit the number of drives, keep the Patriots offense on the sideline, and change the field position situation, time and again.

Yeah, I know. It wasn't the most dominant performance of all time, that's for sure.

That said, I contend that NE's offense had a great deal to do with some of those issues. I've already mentioned TOP and how Brady's unforced safety was a huge factor, not only in lost possession, but it put a tired defense on the field after one play of rest. In the second half, NE's two drives after taking a 17-9 lead went for a total of 1:45 of game time and included a turnover. Not exactly helping.

NE also forced two fumbles and it was complete luck that they didn't land on one of them.

Beyond all of that, much of NY's slow pacing was by defensive design and the fact that they only allowed 19 points (and it would have been 13 had the offense taken care of that last drive) was no accident.

It wasn't a defensive coaching tape, but they played well enough to win.

 

[mgteich]

No. Vegas odds are based on who the bettors think will win. The house odds merely reflect the opinions of the bettors. Odds are set so that an equal amount of money is bet on each side of a bet. The house does NOT have an interest or opinion. In fact, any time there is a serious discrepancy in betting, a casino will pay money to lay off these bets through their own betting with other brokers.

Vegas odds are not based on who they think will win. It's based on who they think people will bet to win.

[/QUOTE]

 

[fnordcircle]

A mulligan is putting it nicely. Buffalo is going to be a disaster. E.J. Manuel is awful. That was a horrible first round pick for them.

I think Manuel will end up being the 2nd best QB in the division, let's meet back here in 3 years and see who is right.

 

[Horace's Ivories]

I would say the defense will be much improved - the offense will surprise (in a good way)