A little early, but: should the Patriots try to re-sign Wes Welker?

[RobertWeathers]

Ok, I get this.

But, I'm sure there will be lots of players restructuring their contracts, such that they get "cash upfront", move to future yrs, etc.. that won't count against the 2013 cap...

It all depends on how they restructure. It's like paying off one credit card with another, hoping you are still getting value for what you actually bought with the credit card. You either pay now or pay later. We are all well aware of Brady's cap $21m cap hit for 2013. For all we know, the team is working on a long-term extension that will ensure TB spends the rest of his days in Foxboro and at the same time, change the $21m # to something less so the team maintains financial flexibility, manages it's risk on an "older" player and stay competitive for years to come.

 

[mgteich]

Certainly, Brady and Wilfork could restructure this off-season and free up some 2013 cap money. What happens is that their 2013 salary is converted to a bonus and spread over the life of the contract.

Ok, I get this.

But, I'm sure there will be lots of players restructuring their contracts, such that they get "cash upfront", move to future yrs, etc.. that won't count against the 2013 cap...

 

[Deus Irae]

...In 2013 he will be 32 years old. Most, if not all WRs at 32 are not as productive as they are at 26 years old so he is on the back 9 if you will. WW does not have a long career in front of him so yea, I guess I am looking at him like a battery...

Are most, if not all, WRs coming off a 118 catch season?
Are most, if not all, WRs coming off of five 110+ catch seasons in six seasons?
Are most, if not all, WRs the best at what they do?

 

[Ring 6]

Because its a 1 year deal without a long-term financial commitment to a player who will be 32 years old at the start of the 2013 season. Looking into my crystal ball, I took a swag at the $16m because it's the exact point you just made. Barring injury, he should still be a 100 catch 1000+ yard guy in 2013 and "worth" $11m or so (will/can them team bring him back is a different story). In 2014 at 33, he should be as you say still highly productive, but at his age WRs typically start to show the wear and tear and a $10m cap hit/cash outlay locked into a play that isn't earning those dollars has a trickle-down effect on the entire roster. I'm assuming that they'll amortize it to lessen the blow. I just think it's not smart business to spend big money/long term deals on older players- except QBs_ risk goes up for not getting value as it relates to outlay of money and cap space used by the player.

This is what drives me nuts. Its about winning football games and championships, not eliminating risk. Lets say Welker signs for 4 years and in his 3rd is a parttime player and in his 4th gone.
Lets us 4 for 40mill 20 up front, and salaries of 2,5,6,7
Year 3 we have an 11 mill hit for a guy who contributes on 3rd down plus a little. Not great, but not criplling. Year 4 we take a 5mill dead money hit. Been there done that.
In the meantime in 2013 and 2014 we do not have to make major changes to what may be the best offense in NFL history. (Hard to argue any offense has been better than the 2007-2012 Brady/Welkercentric Pats).
Welker was worth 15 million this year, maybe more. It is ludicrous to break up the best offense in the NFL because we are afraid to deal with cap hits in the future.

In 2013 he will be 32 years old. Most, if not all WRs at 32 are not as productive as they are at 26 years old so he is on the back 9 if you will. WW does not have a long career in front of him so yea, I guess I am looking at him like a battery...

Which is wrong, because he will not stop, he will slow first. There is nothing wrong with overpaying the back end of contract in order to have the player for the front end of it, underpaid. Half the players in the league are overpaid.

In 2013, I believe that the bonus/guaranteed dollars directly impacts their ability to sign Talib and Vollmer and potentially sign a FA they really like so I am concerned.

Signing him long term will leave more money than tagging him.
It will probably leave as much or more than signing a replacement capable of helping an overhauled offensive scheme of coming close to what it would be if Welker stayed.
Welker is miles more important to this team than Talib or Vollmer.
You are arguing about the risk of Welker while endorsing the signing of substance abuse violator Talib who has played 5 games as a Patriot and only 33 in the last 3 years, and Vollmer who has a chronic back injury and missed 60% of the season last year?

In 2014, if WW's cap number is $10m and you got Brady to work on os he isn't a FA in 2015 and other players like Spikes, Ridley and maybe a couple of others that they want to re-sign, etc. then I am also concerned in that capacity as well...

Cap management is cap management, not a reason to let one of your most key players walk so you can pay lesser ones.

 

[Deus Irae]

....In 2013, I believe that the bonus/guaranteed dollars directly impacts their ability to sign Talib and Vollmer and potentially sign a FA they really like so I am concerned. In 2014, if WW's cap number is $10m and you got Brady to work on os he isn't a FA in 2015 and other players like Spikes, Ridley and maybe a couple of others that they want to re-sign, etc. then I am also concerned in that capacity as well...

Talib and Vollmer are far bigger risks to sign than is Welker. The fact that you're ignoring that should tell you that your assessments are off and need to be completely redone.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Are most, if not all, WRs coming off a 118 catch season?
Are most, if not all, WRs coming off of five 110+ catch seasons in six seasons?
Are most, if not all, WRs the best at what they do?

Well, in the effort to compare apples-to-apples lets take a look at in terms of catches, the most prolific WRs to play the game.

Herman Moore- 3 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 28
Jerry Rice- 3 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 34
Marvin Harrison- 4 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 31
Cris Carter- 2 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 31 but had 96 at age 32
Torry Holt- 2 out of 3 100 catch seasons, last one at age 30, but had two 93 catch seasons at ages 31and 32.
Rod Smith- 2 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 31
Reggie Wayne 4 out the last 6 seasons have been 100 catch ones and hes 34.

Pretty much all of these guys had 90, 80 and 70 catch seasons at 31, 32 and 33 years old...

Rice and Wayne are the only ones that have had 100 catch seasons after the age of 32.

I agree that WW should get locked up for the next 3 years, but I am completely against him representing a $10m + cap number at 34 years old. I am also against him receiving a huge signing bonus in 2013 that prevents the team from affording Vollmer and Talib.

 

[Ring 6]

Well, in the effort to compare apples-to-apples lets take a look at in terms of catches, the most prolific WRs to play the game.

Herman Moore- 3 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 28
Jerry Rice- 3 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 34
Marvin Harrison- 4 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 31
Cris Carter- 2 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 31 but had 96 at age 32
Torry Holt- 2 out of 3 100 catch seasons, last one at age 30, but had two 93 catch seasons at ages 31and 32.
Rod Smith- 2 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 31
Reggie Wayne 4 out the last 6 seasons have been 100 catch ones and hes 34.

Pretty much all of these guys had 90, 80 and 70 catch seasons at 31, 32 and 33 years old...

Rice and Wayne are the only ones that have had 100 catch seasons after the age of 32.

I agree that WW should get locked up for the next 3 years, but I am completely against him representing a $10m + cap number at 34 years old. I am also against him receiving a huge signing bonus in 2013 that prevents the team from affording Vollmer and Talib.

The larger the signing bonus, the more money will be available for other players.

 

[RobertWeathers]

This is what drives me nuts. Its about winning football games and championships, not eliminating risk. Lets say Welker signs for 4 years and in his 3rd is a parttime player and in his 4th gone.
Lets us 4 for 40mill 20 up front, and salaries of 2,5,6,7
Year 3 we have an 11 mill hit for a guy who contributes on 3rd down plus a little. Not great, but not criplling. Year 4 we take a 5mill dead money hit. Been there done that.
In the meantime in 2013 and 2014 we do not have to make major changes to what may be the best offense in NFL history. (Hard to argue any offense has been better than the 2007-2012 Brady/Welkercentric Pats).
Welker was worth 15 million this year, maybe more. It is ludicrous to break up the best offense in the NFL because we are afraid to deal with cap hits in the future. .

I disagree. This isn't the MLB where there isn't a cap. You simply cannot pay a player big money, use valueble when he is a part time player.

Which is wrong, because he will not stop, he will slow first. There is nothing wrong with overpaying the back end of contract in order to have the player for the front end of it, underpaid. Half the players in the league are overpaid..

Batteries slowly fade away and there is plenty wrong with paying a ton on the back-end of a deal for a player that isn't offering value equating to that used cap space. Thats how teams get into major trouble.

Signing him long term will leave more money than tagging him.
It will probably leave as much or more than signing a replacement capable of helping an overhauled offensive scheme of coming close to what it would be if Welker stayed.
Welker is miles more important to this team than Talib or Vollmer.
You are arguing about the risk of Welker while endorsing the signing of substance abuse violator Talib who has played 5 games as a Patriot and only 33 in the last 3 years, and Vollmer who has a chronic back injury and missed 60% of the season last year?.

Obviously the Pats will incorporate a multitude of provisions that protect themselves from any potential discretions Talib may do. I believe that his presence over a 16 game schedule makes this defense that much more effective. In terms of Vollmer (and Talib), I'm not suggesting making them the highest paid players at their position, but Vollmer's presence in the passing and running game on this team ensures that A) Brady has a better chance of standing upright and B) the running game, which also helps Brady and this offense is better with, than without Vollmer.

Cap management is cap management, not a reason to let one of your most key players walk so you can pay lesser ones.

I agree that Vollmer and Talib are lesser players but without them, and keeping WW, I don't believe the team is better without them and that is what matters most- building a team that is competive every year and keeping TB upright.

 

[goheels22002]

You cannot compare the flotsam and jetsom NJ is spending their cap on to Tom Brady and Wes Welker. The reason the Jets suck isn't that they spent that money, its that they spent it wrong. If they have Brady and Welker they would be contenders. Instead they have Sanchez and Holmes at about the same cost.

You get it. I was comparing loading up the cap with too few players and sacrificing quality and depth elsewhere.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Talib and Vollmer are far bigger risks to sign than is Welker. The fact that you're ignoring that should tell you that your assessments are off and need to be completely redone.

Which is why you don't overpay them and structure the contracts so that they are win-wins..

 

[Deus Irae]

Well, in the effort to compare apples-to-apples lets take a look at in terms of catches, the most prolific WRs to play the game.

Herman Moore- 3 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 28
Jerry Rice- 3 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 34
Marvin Harrison- 4 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 31
Cris Carter- 2 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 31 but had 96 at age 32
Torry Holt- 2 out of 3 100 catch seasons, last one at age 30, but had two 93 catch seasons at ages 31and 32.
Rod Smith- 2 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 31
Reggie Wayne 4 out the last 6 seasons have been 100 catch ones and hes 34.

Pretty much all of these guys had 90, 80 and 70 catch seasons at 31, 32 and 33 years old...

Rice and Wayne are the only ones that have had 100 catch seasons after the age of 32.

I agree that WW should get locked up for the next 3 years, but I am completely against him representing a $10m + cap number at 34 years old. I am also against him receiving a huge signing bonus in 2013 that prevents the team from affording Vollmer and Talib.

Your arguments are contradictory, and therefore make no sense. You also deliberately avoided answering my questions by being completely disingenuous about comparing apples to apples.

 

[RobertWeathers]

The larger the signing bonus, the more money will be available for other players.

How is paying $20m instead of $11m make more money available? I understand spreading out the hit and amortizing it but owing $9m more on the cap does not make more money available.

 

[Ring 6]

Well, in the effort to compare apples-to-apples lets take a look at in terms of catches, the most prolific WRs to play the game.

Herman Moore- 3 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 28
Jerry Rice- 3 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 34
Marvin Harrison- 4 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 31
Cris Carter- 2 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 31 but had 96 at age 32
Torry Holt- 2 out of 3 100 catch seasons, last one at age 30, but had two 93 catch seasons at ages 31and 32.
Rod Smith- 2 straight 100 catch seasons, last one at age 31
Reggie Wayne 4 out the last 6 seasons have been 100 catch ones and hes 34.

Pretty much all of these guys had 90, 80 and 70 catch seasons at 31, 32 and 33 years old...

Rice and Wayne are the only ones that have had 100 catch seasons after the age of 32.

I agree that WW should get locked up for the next 3 years, but I am completely against him representing a $10m + cap number at 34 years old. I am also against him receiving a huge signing bonus in 2013 that prevents the team from affording Vollmer and Talib.

Moore. Was injured. Age was not a factor
Rice. Caught 92 passes at 40.
Harrison. Starting at age 32 caught 86,82,95 (4th highest of his career at 34)
Carter. starting at 32, he caught 89,78,90,96 (3rd best season of his career at 35). Of course adding Randy Moss had something to do with not quite hitting 100.
Holt. Look at the QBs.
Smith. 89,74,79, 85 starting at 32, which is much more reperesentative of his career than a couple of 100 catch seasons. Still as good as ever at 35.
Wayne. In 3 years since turning 32 he his 2 highest catch totals and Andrew Painter.

Your list says Welker should sign for 4 years if he isn't Herman Moore, or we are cutting Brady.

 

[Ring 6]

How is paying $20m instead of $11m make more money available? I understand spreading out the hit and amortizing it but owing $9m more on the cap does not make more money available.

Huh?
It lowers the early years salaries,
You really don't think Welker expects the same salaries in year 1 and 2 with an 11 mill bonus as he would with 20 do you?

 

[RobertWeathers]

Your arguments are contradictory, and therefore make no sense. You also deliberately avoided answering my questions by being completely disingenuous about comparing apples to apples.

I thought the list and Marvin Harrison's career in particular as an example pretty much met the criteria. Sorry you feel differently.

WW is a HoF potential receiver but that doesn't mean the Pats should keep him at all costs just because...

 

[Ring 6]

Which is why you don't overpay them and structure the contracts so that they are win-wins..

Your idea of overpaying and win-win and Aqib Talibs would appear to be very different.

 

[Ring 6]

I thought the list and Marvin Harrison's career in particular as an example pretty much met the criteria. Sorry you feel differently.

WW is a HoF potential receiver but that doesn't mean the Pats should keep him at all costs just because...

Harrison had his 4th highest reception total at age 34. I will take that from Welker in 2015 and be very happy.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Moore. Was injured. Age was not a factor
Rice. Caught 92 passes at 40.
Harrison. Starting at age 32 caught 86,82,95 (4th highest of his career at 34)
Carter. starting at 32, he caught 89,78,90,96 (3rd best season of his career at 35). Of course adding Randy Moss had something to do with not quite hitting 100.
Holt. Look at the QBs.
Smith. 89,74,79, 85 starting at 32, which is much more reperesentative of his career than a couple of 100 catch seasons. Still as good as ever at 35.
Wayne. In 3 years since turning 32 he his 2 highest catch totals and Andrew Painter.

Your list says Welker should sign for 4 years if he isn't Herman Moore, or we are cutting Brady.

Saying that I imply cutting Brady is a fabrication. C'mon now.

I support signing WW. I do not support a large cap hit/salary outlay for a 34 year old WR when other important player's contracts need to be addressed. If they can get all 3 under 2013 cap AND stay competitve for years to come, great. I just don't think they can do both. Welker's production, the defense, the running game or Brady's health..something will give.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Huh?
It lowers the early years salaries,
You really don't think Welker expects the same salaries in year 1 and 2 with an 11 mill bonus as he would with 20 do you?

No. It's the cap hit in 2013, 2014 and 2015 that concerns me and the bonus that they need to come up with to pay RFA and FAs in 2013.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Your idea of overpaying and win-win and Aqib Talibs would appear to be very different.

I don't think either one of us know what Talib is truly asking for at this point. I also assume he doesn't either as the team, the market and his worth have not been determined yet.