A little early, but: should the Patriots try to re-sign Wes Welker?

[Deus Irae]

... IMO you can maybe blame the Pats maybe for not getting a 3-year deal done after March and before the franchise cutoff date of Jul 12; but legitimately they had concerns about his age, how replaceable he was, and there were plenty of other OPEN ISSUES on the cap management front...

Those concerns were never legitimate. A 3 year deal would have left Welker at only 33 years old when the deal was over, the replaceable argument has never had any merit, and there were no issues that should have prevented a deal which would have led to either a higher or lower cap hit, depending on what the team felt was needed.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Yea I'm not one of those who say, 'hes only a slot receiver'. He is incredibly important to this offense and makes Brady's job easier.

However, I do believe that he is replaceable with a top-WR and/or a Larry Centers/Darrell Sproles-type that can move the chains and get 1st downs.

It will all come down to the money and years- again.

I agree, however signing a top tier WR alone is going to cost as much as Welker, let alone a top tier WR and a Centers/Sproles type to go with them. It's hard to see how they can replace Welker at less cost than they can sign him for. The deals that both mgteich and i outlined in this thread both basically came out at 3-30 and i don't see how they could ever replace Welker for anything near that. I hear people talking about not being able to afford Welker in one breath and then saying they should sign Mike wallace, who wants 90 million, or trade a first for Fitzgerald, who already has a 125 million deal on the books, and i really don't see the logic in those views.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Those concerns were never legitimate. A 3 year deal would have left Welker at only 33 years old when the deal was over, the replaceable argument has never had any merit, and there were no issues that should have prevented a deal which would have led to either a higher or lower cap hit, depending on what the team felt was needed.

It's actually a little late, not early to try and get a deal done with Wes...

Let's hope they can still figure something out...

 

[Deus Irae]

It's actually a little late, not early to try and get a deal done with Wes...

Let's hope they can still figure something out...

Well, IMO, the time to get the Welker deal done was after the 2010 season, when Welker showed that he had come back from the knee injury. That's not the time frame given here, though.

 

[Gumby]

Those concerns were never legitimate. A 3 year deal would have left Welker at only 33 years old when the deal was over, the replaceable argument has never had any merit, and there were no issues that should have prevented a deal which would have led to either a higher or lower cap hit, depending on what the team felt was needed.

I could accept that POV too.

My main point was what drove the breakdown was UNCERTAINTY (on the part of the pats in an environment w/ LIMITED CAP ROOM for a 8-11M / yr deal over a multi year period.) They willingly PAID A HIGHER CAP HIT over ST because they were certain of the fall-out in ST; but not LT fallout. I think almost all would agree now in retrospect they should have done the LT deal. Many, including I, back then wished they had done the LT deal. I am maybe just more willing to give BB the BB knows best blank check than you are.

BUT.....To say the replacement argument has NO merit is ludicrous. EVERY PLAYER IS REPLACEABLE. Otherwise there wouldn't be an IR system or camp competition/cut-down threads each year, would there?

Every player has some time where they become replaceable. Sometimes it is at age 22 as a UDFA who gets cut, sometimes age 26, sometimes 30 and sometimes Brett Favre-esque 40-something. But you can't predict it completely. Obviously based on WW performance this year; THEY WERE WRONG - he isnt regressing yet.

Just cause you dont like some folks opinion that he COULD REGRESS (age-physically) doesnt make it illegitimate. I dont agree with it either; I think WW had before & has now proven his health and endurance bona fides sufficient for a 3-year deal.

The 'merits' (or replaceability) are weaker now based on this year's evidence (both him and Edeldude) than they were last year; But some folks, including BB, may choose to disagree with us on that. THink of it as an odds thing - he maybe has 10% chance of starting to hit the age wall (IYO) over the course of a 3-year contract or 30% in BBs opinion but the odds ARE NOT 0.

 

[supafly]

Just like every season the front office will have to try and determine who is a realistic fit here for the future, and who may be able to be replaced with whatever downgrade would come along with that.

We have seen an amazing run of success with these decisions in the past 10+ years, and I would expect those decisions to continue more often than not.

We have a good number of guys to try and resign this offseason including:

Welker
Talib
Vollmer
Woodhead
Edelman
Arrington
Chung

I have listed my personal preference in order of who I would like to see resigned the most, although some will disagree and have their own views. Most importantly, it will obviously be up to Belichick to try and determine which way to go, so the future depends on his viewpoint. He may feel that some of these players can be replaced with less downside, which would thus enable other players to be retained.

I certainly imagine a restructuring/extension for Tom Brady also, as many have mentioned. Wilfork is another possibility of course.

I still believe that there had to have been some sort of logic behind the front office's dropping of the ball after the 2010 season (or last offseason) in the Welker deal, and I still wonder if they realized that they were going to have to pay him approx. 20+ million guaranteed over the first couple of years anyway, and decided to simply play it safe and take it year by year in the 2012 and 2013 seasons by spreading it over the two franchise tags.

 

[Deus Irae]

...BUT.....To say the replacement argument has NO merit is ludicrous. EVERY PLAYER IS REPLACEABLE. Otherwise there wouldn't be an IR system or camp competition/cut-down threads each year, would there?

Given that the quoted portion is a truism, that must mean you meant something different in your earlier post, right? That's just common sense.

Every player has some time where they become replaceable. Sometimes it is at age 22 as a UDFA who gets cut, sometimes age 26, sometimes 30 and sometimes Brett Favre-esque 40-something. But you can't predict it completely. Obviously based on WW performance this year; THEY WERE WRONG - he isnt regressing yet.

It hasn't just been this year, though, has it? And that's the point.

Just cause you dont like some folks opinion that he COULD REGRESS (age-physically) doesnt make it illegitimate. I dont agree with it either; I think WW had before & has now proven his health and endurance bona fides sufficient for a 3-year deal.

This makes absolutely no sense at all. Like all players, Welker will eventually lose the battle to age. The people who've been talking him down for 3 years will eventually be right. WW had already more than proven his health and endurance bona fides prior to this past season. However, the longer you wait to give out that 3 year deal you're talking about, the more likely you are to have unproductive seasons at the end of it.

The 'merits' (or replaceability) are weaker now based on this year's evidence (both him and Edeldude) than they were last year; But some folks, including BB, may choose to disagree with us on that. THink of it as an odds thing - he maybe has 10% chance of starting to hit the age wall (IYO) over the course of a 3-year contract or 30% in BBs opinion but the odds ARE NOT 0.

See, here's the problem. You're posting as if Welker hadn't proved his "replaceability" issue was a dead issue prior to the end of this season. That's clearly not true, because he demonstrated that in 2010, after Moss left, the offense became Welker/TE-centric instead of Moss-Welker centric, and Welker still pulled in more than 80 receptions in a recovery year. However, even if you didn't buy the 2010 recovery, he demonstrated it again in 2011, where he pulled in 122 catches in that Welker/TE-centric offense.

 

[ATippett56]

If Brady don't get decent protection he cant get the ball to Wes or to any other Receivers. BB will tell you that guys like Vollmer don't fall off trees. I am glad we got the extra week rest...some of you are going to really appreciate Vollmer in the Playoffs. Brady can't do anything on his @ss...see first SB against Giants.:snob: Vollmer has to be Retained!

At worst, the New England Patriots could expend a first round draft pick on an offensive tackle in the 2013 NFL Draft.

 

[ATippett56]

No. It's Gronk.

Which current player has led the New England Patriots offense in receptions and receiving yards in the last three seasons?

WW is replaceable with a good WR or a kick-butt 3rd down back.

What a load of crap. The following players failed to replace Wes Welker this past off-season:

Chad Ochocinco
Anthony Gonzalez
Donte Stallworth
Jabar Gaffney
Deion Branch
Jeremy Ebert

 

[patfanken]

Huh?

Did you really just say that Ken?

Do you mind naming those who can produce more than Welker does at WR?

Cmon Ivan how many 6'6, 320lb guys who are athletic enough to run with 4.6-4.8 260-280 lb guys
who are allowed to use their hands. There are a lot fewer of them than 5'10-6'2 guys who can run fast and have good hand eye coordination.

Are you so enamored with Wes Welker that you think he's irreplaceable. He's was an UDFA. The guy who is compared to him most often, Danny Amendola was and UDFA. The other big name slot receiver in the league, Victor Cruz, was an UDFA. And a guy who showed a lot of speed, quickness and explosiveness was a 7th round pick...and people were surprised we took him. Believe me Ivan. these guys are out there. Don't tell me that you think that without Welker this offense will crumble.

Its difficult to compare the contributions of one position to another. But I can be fairly argued that an OT is a key factor in every play that's run, while a WR, ANY WR, just isn't. Just because an OT is infinitely less visible than a WR, it doesn't make him less important.

Ivan, you don't have to make protecting Wes Welker your life's work. No one here is out to get him. In fact everyone here really wants him to stay. It just that some of us don't think the Pats should do it at ANY cost. Some of us think that with limited resources there is more to think about than just Wes Welker.

Like I've said there are huge risks when you sing ANY player to a big contract. If the Pats sign Volmer there are risks. If they sign Talib, there are risks, and if they Welker there are RISKS. The problem is you only see Welker as if he's in a vacuum.

Ivan, I'll only be repeating myself if I go on. Feel free to continue to overstate your opinion, I think there is no longer any purpose to respond to you on this issue. You are to wedded to your position. I hope the Pats DO re-sign Welker. But I hope its to a deal that makes sense for the rest of the team. Not just to an offense that already has numerous assets.

 

[ATippett56]

If Brady don't get decent protection he cant get the ball to Wes or to any other Receivers. BB will tell you that guys like Vollmer don't fall off trees.

Another load of crap!

Tom Brady survived with the following players at the right tackle position:

Tom Ashworth
Brandon Gorin
Nick Kaczur

 

[Huckleberry1]

Cmon Ivan how many 6'6, 320lb guys who are athletic enough to run with 4.6-4.8 260-280 lb guys
who are allowed to use their hands. There are a lot fewer of them than 5'10-6'2 guys who can run fast and have good hand eye coordination.

Sebastien Vollmer is a good RT, Wes Welker is a HOF quality receiver who produces like very few receivers ever have and has been the key component in the most productive offense in NFL history. For all those guys who you claim can "run fast and have good hands" none has ever come close to producing like Welker has

 

[Huckleberry1]

Are you so enamored with Wes Welker that you think he's irreplaceable. He's was an UDFA. The guy who is compared to him most often, Danny Amendola was and UDFA. The other big name slot receiver in the league, Victor Cruz, was an UDFA. And a guy who showed a lot of speed, quickness and explosiveness was a 7th round pick...and people were surprised we took him. Believe me Ivan. these guys are out there. Don't tell me that you think that without Welker this offense will crumble.

Herein lies the crux of the issue with Welker for you Ken, you have the Ultra Madden complex where a player is only as good as their size and draft status, their actual play and production doesn't mean a thing to you and Chad Jackson would be a better choice than Wes Welker. And despite repeatedly being proven 100% wrong in your contention that Edelman could easily replace Welker you continue to insist you are right and act as if it is those with the facts and production who are wrong while your opinion is right. and you continually claim you respect welker and want him here while demanding they lowball him and talk absolute garbage about him. It is pretty disgraceful imo.

 

[ATippett56]

Cmon Ivan how many 6'6, 320lb guys who are athletic enough to run with 4.6-4.8 260-280 lb guys who are allowed to use their hands.

Tom Ashworth, an undrafted free agent from the University of Colorado, under the tutelage of Dante Scarnecchia started 13 regular season games and 3 playoff games at right tackle during the 2003 NFL Season.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Its difficult to compare the contributions of one position to another. But I can be fairly argued that an OT is a key factor in every play that's run, while a WR, ANY WR, just isn't. Just because an OT is infinitely less visible than a WR, it doesn't make him less important.

.

A good RT isn't anywhere near as valuable as a HOF caliber WR.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Ivan, you don't have to make protecting Wes Welker your life's work. No one here is out to get him. In fact everyone here really wants him to stay. It just that some of us don't think the Pats should do it at ANY cost. Some of us think that with limited resources there is more to think about than just Wes Welker.

.

I'm not the one who starts these threads Ken and it is clear that most Patriot fans have much more regard for Welker and respect for him than you and a few other diehard bashers who consider him just a little UDFA slot reciever. you don't want him and your continual craps on him, including those in this post more than demonstrate that. stop trying to play both sides of it, you think he's a jag and that is abundantly clear. you think thewy should pay a guy who has played parts of a couple games 8 million a year but a HOF caliber WR much less than that, it's idiotic crap.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Like I've said there are huge risks when you sing ANY player to a big contract. If the Pats sign Volmer there are risks. If they sign Talib, there are risks, and if they Welker there are RISKS. The problem is you only see Welker as if he's in a vacuum.

.

Nope, I see Welker as a proven, productive, and durable commodity, and those are the lowest risks. Vollmer and Talib don't pass that test and you want to give both more.

 

[ATippett56]

Are you so enamored with Wes Welker that you think he's irreplaceable. He's was an UDFA. The guy who is compared to him most often, Danny Amendola was and UDFA.

You can forget about Danny Amendola.

Franchise tag looks inevitable for Amendola | ProFootballTalk

 

[Huckleberry1]

Ivan, I'll only be repeating myself if I go on. Feel free to continue to overstate your opinion, I think there is no longer any purpose to respond to you on this issue. You are to wedded to your position. I hope the Pats DO re-sign Welker. But I hope its to a deal that makes sense for the rest of the team. Not just to an offense that already has numerous assets.

Ken, you have been beating the get rid of Welker drum for years, you won't stop now regardless of whether I say anything or not. my position has been grounded in his production where yours is based on your biases and a love of your own opinion, even though it has been proven wrong over and over and over. Maybe you will get your wish and Chad jackson will return, he's big and fast and was high pick, and that's clearly what matters most to you

 

[ATippett56]

Like I've said there are huge risks when you sing ANY player to a big contract. If the Pats sign Volmer there are risks.

How long did Nick Kaczur last in the NFL after he developed back problems?