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So, 6 days later, it seems like the FO is on board with #1. Ras-I Dowling has unfortunately ended up on IR once again and Sterling Moore has been cut. But Devin McCourty had another solid game at safety against the Rams in London, and the FO actually pulled the trigger and traded a 4th round pick in 2013 to Tampa Bay for Aqib Talib and a 2013 7th round pick.
At this point I continue to feel that it makes sense not to focus heavily on the secondary in the draft. There is a nucleus of young talent: McCourty, Wilson, Dennard. Ebner is a developmental prospect who could blossom. Dowling is an enigma - he's not a lock for the roster next year, but he still is a talented kid who could pull it together if he can ever stay healthy. I don't personally feel that Chung are Arrington are likely to be a part of the future of the team. Gregory seems to me like a steady and versatile veteran presence, in the James Sanders kind of mold, but with better coverage ability.
I'm hoping that Talib works out and can be extended long term. That will obviously be a key to assessing the long term plans for the secondary. The other key will be the safety position, and whether Devin McCourty stays there and how Tavon Wilson develops. I could see bringing in a FA depending on who is available and the price. Dashon Goldson will probably be franchised. I can't see Buffalo letting Jarius Byrd get away to a division foe. Some have suggested that Ed Reed could hit the open market. We'll see. But with the Talib trade, the secondary situation seems to be solidifying.
Richard Hill from Pats' Pulpit had an interesting take on the Talib trade and it's potential affect on Pat Chung's situation:
The Patriots have set sides for their cornerbacks, meaning the cornerback will line up on the same side the entire game, regardless of match-up. Kyle Arrington has historically played right cornerback, while Devin McCourty has lined up at left cornerback his whole career. So what now?
Arrington is apparently dinged up and rookie Alfonzo Dennard has earned his time on the field. You can expect Dennard to have at least one of the three main cornerback spots locked up. In my opinion, Talib will be expected to hold down the side opposite of Dennard, allowing Arrington or Marquise Cole to remain in the slot.
This all means that McCourty, the team's current #1 corner, will have to make the full time switch to safety. Pat Chung has struggled to cover the deep ball his entire career and Tavon Wilson has shown little deep ability during his rookie campaign. Steve Gregory has been dinged up and, while the best of the trio of safeties, leaves a lot to be desired. McCourty making the move to safety allows the Patriots to keep their best defensive backs on the field, while having a more competent last line of defense.
Additionally, the usage of McCourty as a deep safety will allow Pat Chung to assume his more natural role as an in-the-box safety, as Talib at left corner will allow the Patriots more leeway with the strong safety. Chung has played out of his element as Arrington and Sterling Moore have required constant help with their receiver, forcing Chung to play further back than is his strength. If Chung can move back to the box, outlet receivers will have less success against what has primarily been the Patriots linebackers.
Secondary Fallout: How Talib Affects the Defensive Backs - Pats Pulpit
I've always been a Chung fan, but his increasing liability in coverage has pushed me to the point of moving on. Hill's perspective is that the deficiencies of the Pats' CBs and the lack of a true deep FS since Brandon Meriweather was cut have forced the Pats to play Chung out of position, exposing his weaknesses and limiting his strengths. From this perspective, if Chung is able to regain his previous form, a safety rotation of McCourty/Chung/Wilson/Gregory/Ebner with a CB group of Talib/Dennard/(Dowling hopefully in 2013)/Cole/Arrington wouldn't be bad. Gregory can also play the slot/nickel role, adding depth. If Chung can regain some of his form over the second half of the season, it may be worth reconsidering whether he should be part of the equation for the future. He could be less expensive than the FA options available, and if McCourty adapts to the role of a deep FS then the need for someone like a Goldson/Byrd/Reed would not be so great.