My Blueprint For the Pats

[manxman2601]

I rarely get excited about college QBs but I do find myself excited about McCarron, and strangely enough it’s his lack of flashiness and very sound fundamentals that impresses me the most. He seems to play without any ego whatsoever.

Agreed. And I'm hoping that that very "lack of flashiness" keeps his draft stock down a bit, at least to the late 1st round.

I've already said that I'm happy taking McCarron in the first (the Aaron Rodgers thing) so I am a fan, however, I do have one concern and that is his Redzone passing. It's not something I've charted or studied but my impression watching Alabama the last couple of years is that they do come away with a lot of FGs, especially against the better defenses.

 

[mayoclinic]

Mackenzie has brought up an intriguing TE prospect who could be a nice alternative to Chris Gragg in my "bliueprint" and mock: Cincinnati TE Travis Kelce, brother of Phialdelphia center Jason Kelce:

Interesting kid:

- 3 sport background (baseball, basketball); love TEs with basketball backgrounds
- Former QB, so he should have some grasp of offensive schemes and "processing speed". Plus he's been used in Wildcat situations some, which also speaks to his movement skills.

Here's a nice read on Kelce:

http://cdn3.sbnation.com/photo_images/8829652/20120906_ter_sv4_137_extra_large.jpg

I had SMU DE converted to TE Taylor Thompson on my wish list and mock last year for the Pats, who had similar size and athleticism. Taylor ended up going at #145 in the 5th round to Tennessee, so that range wouldn't be unreasonable for Kelce.

I'd be torn right now between Kelce and Gragg. We need another H-back/move TE to back up and complement Aaron Hernandez more than we need another big TE. But if Kelce really moves as well in space as Mackenzie suggests, the chance to get a big guy with Gronk-like movement skills could be too good to pass up.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Mackenzie has brought up an intriguing TE prospect who could be a nice alternative to Chris Gragg in my "bliueprint" and mock: Cincinnati TE Travis Kelce, brother of Phialdelphia center Jason Kelce:

Interesting kid:

- 3 sport background (baseball, basketball); love TEs with basketball backgrounds
- Former QB, so he should have some grasp of offensive schemes and "processing speed". Plus he's been used in Wildcat situations some, which also speaks to his movement skills.

Here's a nice read on Kelce:

http://cdn3.sbnation.com/photo_images/8829652/20120906_ter_sv4_137_extra_large.jpg

I had SMU DE converted to TE Taylor Thompson on my wish list and mock last year for the Pats, who had similar size and athleticism. Taylor ended up going at #145 in the 5th round to Tennessee, so that range wouldn't be unreasonable for Kelce.

I'd be torn right now between Kelce and Gragg. We need another H-back/move TE to back up and complement Aaron Hernandez more than we need another big TE. But if Kelce really moves as well in space as Mackenzie suggests, the chance to get a big guy with Gronk-like movement skills could be too good to pass up.

How about both? If Vereen comes online he'd likely be an upgrade over Woodhead, freeing up a spot for Gragg as a FB/TE.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I would prefer to trade Chung for Talib in my scenario, but it's quite possible that Tampa wouldn't be interested, especially as they have Mark Barron. Maybe they'd see Chung as a worthwhile backup. I think I specified a 2014 4th as an alternative, which is roughly equivalent to a 2013 5th round pick.

I didn't notice the 2014 part.

One of my reasons for preferring to move McCourty to safety is that he plays better in zone and with the ball in front of him than in man/press coverage, whereas Dennard and Dowling play better in man/press. It doesn't make sense to "mix and match" CBs with different stylistic strengths. If McCourty is developing his man coverage skills that might be different. As for signing UFA safeties, I'd grab either Gholston or Byrd in a heartbeat, but I'm assuming both will be franchised or extended (Gholston was franchised last year and almost certainly will this year, and I can't see Buffalo letting Byrd get away to a division foe). Reed's already been discussed in detail. Don't see that happening. DRC isn't my ideal Pats CB, but he'd be a big improvement over Kyle Arrington. I think Talib has the best skill set of the bunch, but obviously there are issues and risks involved. He's only 26. I think it's worth the risk if he can be had reasonably cheaply, but that's JMHO, and it's only because we're desperate.

Like I said I'd let the market dictate which DB I'd go after. Basically I'd go after the best available. Whether that's Goldson, Byrd, DRC, Will Middleton or Ed Reed. That's not to say I think they will all be available. That's a luxury McCourty's versatility allows. He's been adored by PFF this year, (top 5 I think) so it's not just me that feels he improved.

Reed my have been discussed in detail, but not by me. I'll be shocked if he doesn't become a FA. Baltimore has paralyzing cap problems and they have a history of letting their stars test the FA market. They let Lewis do it twice for example.

 

[VrabelJr]

Nice work on this. Although the Chung for Talib trade doesn't make sense. Chung's contract is expiring this year as is Talib's.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Nice work on this. Although the Chung for Talib trade doesn't make sense. Chung's contract is expiring this year as is Talib's.

Not the OP, but I believe that's sort of the point: you trade Chung for Talib before the deadline, and then, if Talib pans out, you resign him before FA starts.

 

[Off The Grid]

An Exquisite Work of Art, my Friend.

You continue to amaze and, indeed, to astonish me.

If The Pravda's Sport Section was a fifth as good as your Writing ~ ah, how I miss the Hall of Fame lineup of Peter Gammons, Bob Ryan, Nick Cafardo, and Crew ~ then I would actually stifle my laughter and pay those fools.

Brother Mayo's Priorities

1 ~ Fixing The Secondary ~ I am actually more sanguine about our Secondary than...everybody. I think that Devin McCourty, Alfonzo Dennard, Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner...and even the much maligned Kyle Arrington provide us a talented Core 5...and Marquise Cole has been surprising me.

You know I was never thrilled about Steven Gregory or Ras I Dowling, but the former, at least, offers us decent Depth, for the time being.

Dowling is suggestive of a complete and utter waste of an invaluable Pick. I was disgusted at the move at the time, and tried really hard to get behind it...But we should've made a deal with the Miners, and I'm afraid my anti-Dowling bias is well on the way to being validated...

Pat Chung, on the other hand, I was very excited about when we drafted'm...But as you know I have sold my last remaining Shares in that fellow, and am 100% with you in coveting his departure...

Even so, I still believe in those 5, and believe we can be ~ and ought to be ~ selective in who we Draft in the Draft or sign in Free Agency.

I've never been one to spend heavily, here: First off ~ this is for everyone else, as you know my Philosophy well, Brother Mayo ~ I greatly undervalue the Secondary, because of my Core Philosophy that it is wise to spend disproportionately heavily in the Trenches, and lightly away from them...

And also because there're always intriguing Day 2, Day 3, and UFA guys that I like. And regarding Free Agency, I'd spend only on Bargain Vets, and rarely ~ if ever ~ spend Big Money.

2 ~ Left Defensive End ~ I also find myself relatively sanguine about Left Defensive End. I am, as you doubtlessly recall, frothing with what I personally see as the Potential of Jermaine Cunningham ~ Woot!! :rocker: ~ and Jake Bequette, as well as Justin Francis and, indeed, Rob Ninkovich, Travis Scott, and even Donta HighTower, on occasion. Cunningham and Bequette, in particular, I see as possessing immense long term potential. Mind you: You know that it is a Core Philosophy of mine that you can never have too much FirePower...And if the right guy is available at the right price...

3 ~ Youth/Depth at O Line ~ Couldn't agree more, as of course you know, Bro. The Missed Opportunities to cheaply enrich our Depth of Talent in our interior O Line, the last 2 years, have sickened me...Which is not to say that Mad Bill has been anything short of Light Years ahead of his Rivals...And it is fortunate that O Guards, in particular, continue to be unfathomably undervalued.

4 ~ Speed at Wide Receiver ~ Hmmm...Yes, here's where we currently diverge, somewhat. Perhaps to a fault am I focused on Moving The Chains. If I was running a BaseBall team, all I'd want swinging the bats is Contact Hitters with elevated On Base Percentages...I wouldn't give a rat's @$$ about Home Runs. But that, as they say, is me...And I look forward to your deliciously & delightfully Disruptive Discourses on this Great Subject of yours: The Oregonization of the Offense.

5 ~ Depth and Future at Defensive Tackle ~ I am, needless to say, 1000% behind you on the importance of developing High Caliber Depth of Talent at this insanely crucial Position.

6 ~ Wing Back & Flex End ~ Heh. I think you know how I feel about that position. It is the most potentially Disruptive position in the entire Offense...and to fail to develop High Caliber Depth of Talent behind Aaron the Navigator...is incredibly foolish. Fortunately, Mad Bill happens to be brilliant...and may well soon address this Opportunity.

7 ~ Tom Brady's Successor ~ I see no need to rush on this, or to spend more than Day 3 or UFA Draft Capital...but I certainly heartily agree that it's always a good idea to develop Talent, here. We all know who I would've scooped up, the last couple years: Greg McElroy, Kellen Moore, and maybe Ricky Stanzi...Fortunately, there are likely to be more such Field Generals, and indeed they are likely to come just as inexplicably cheaply, Praise The Gods.

 

[Avenger]

Kellen Moore would be great in this offense, his football acumen is top notch. With the receivers on this team Moore would be able to play to his strengths, he goes through his reads quicker than any QB I've ever scouted.

I still think that safety is the biggest need in the draft, and I would like to pick up a nickelback. If Tyrann Mathieu enters the draft I would be more than fine with taking him with our 7th round pick.

 

[Avenger]

I don't think that Moore fits Detroit's game, the Lion's offense relies on getting it deep to Johnson.

 

[Luxusdk]

Well there was the first piece in the master plan ? Finally a corner ( i hope ) ?

 

[mayoclinic]

Well there was the first piece in the master plan ? Finally a corner ( i hope ) ?

Well, I finally seem to have called one right:

Patriots get CB Talib from Bucs - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

That makes me about 1 for 1000 in terms of "predictions" - not bad, if I say so myself.

Seriously, trying to predict what the Pats will do is an exercise in futility. But taking a shot at Talib made sense to me IF the Bucs were willing to deal for a reasonable price:

- Talib is only 26 years old, is still on his rookie deal, and has a ton of talent.
- He is a big, physical CB who can play press and man, a style that would complement Alfonzo Dennard and Ras-I Dowling (if he can ever stay on the field) perfectly), allowing Devin McCourty to move to FS where McCourty is a huge asset
- The Pats seem to need a veteran presence at CB to stabilize the secondary. They have enoug youth, so continuing to draft talented but inexperienced CBs just didn't make sense to me.
- Talib obviously needs a fresh start.
- If the asking price is cheap enough, it's worth the gamble. If Talib bombs the Pats can still go after someone like DRC or Grimes in FA. They have the inside track at signing Talib after this year, but if his price is too high they can still go after other options.

I wouldn't mind seeing them move Pat Chung before the trade deadline. Detroit needs safety help badly, especially with Louis Delmas being out. I'm not sure what the extent of Chung's injury is, but if he's due back soon maybe the Pats could flip him to Detroit for something similar to what they gave TB for Talib, effecting making it a Chung for Talib swap. That would be a good deal in my book.

I'm very pleased.

Step 1 of the master plan is coming along nicely.

 

[Luxusdk]

Really dont think there was time to slip a safety off to Detroit, but i'm like you willing to skip Chung. Would have been perfect if they payed a 4th for him, but hello, WE GOT A CORNER.

Really can't see why they shouldn't sign DRC even if Talib work's. Both are young and would close the secondary for good.

 

[mayoclinic]

Really can't see why they shouldn't sign DRC even if Talib work's. Both are young and would close the secondary for good.

$$$$$$$$$$

 

[mayoclinic]

This is an revision of my latest mock in Ye Olde Mock Draft Thread, along with some thoughts there and on the main board. I thought I'd post it for fun.

Priorities:

1. Fix the secondary
2. A stud LDE opposite Chandler Jones
3. Youth/depth at OL
4. Speed at WR to stretch the field
5. Depth at DT/penetrating DT/successor to Vince Wilfork
6. Depth at H-back/"move TE" to spell/complement Aaron Hernandez
7. An eventual true successor to TBnt. This one works for me (I'm assuming the Pats get 5th and 6th round comp picks):


The Next 6 Months:

1. Trade Patrick Chung to Tampa Bay for CB Aqib Talib; alternatively, the Pats might trade a 2014 draft pick for Talib and use Chung as a hybrid S/LB this year
2. Move Devin McCourty to FS and team him with Tavon Wilson, with Steve Gregory/Nate Ebner as backups
3. Re-sign Sebastian Vollmer
4. Franchise/extend Wes Welker
5. Sign Aqib Talib to a long term deal if he works out, or sign UFA CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Philadelphia). Brent Grimes (Atlanta) is a possibility, but he's coming off an Achilles injury, and we've already been burned with Jonathan Fanene and injured UFAs. If the Pats are unable to trade for Talib by the deadline, then they can just go after one of these guys during FA in 2013
6. Re-sign Myron Pryor and Danny Woodhead
7. Let go: Ron Brace, Deion Branch, Julian Edelman, Kyle Arrington

So, 6 days later, it seems like the FO is on board with #1. Ras-I Dowling has unfortunately ended up on IR once again and Sterling Moore has been cut. But Devin McCourty had another solid game at safety against the Rams in London, and the FO actually pulled the trigger and traded a 4th round pick in 2013 to Tampa Bay for Aqib Talib and a 2013 7th round pick.

At this point I continue to feel that it makes sense not to focus heavily on the secondary in the draft. There is a nucleus of young talent: McCourty, Wilson, Dennard. Ebner is a developmental prospect who could blossom. Dowling is an enigma - he's not a lock for the roster next year, but he still is a talented kid who could pull it together if he can ever stay healthy. I don't personally feel that Chung are Arrington are likely to be a part of the future of the team. Gregory seems to me like a steady and versatile veteran presence, in the James Sanders kind of mold, but with better coverage ability.

I'm hoping that Talib works out and can be extended long term. That will obviously be a key to assessing the long term plans for the secondary. The other key will be the safety position, and whether Devin McCourty stays there and how Tavon Wilson develops. I could see bringing in a FA depending on who is available and the price. Dashon Goldson will probably be franchised. I can't see Buffalo letting Jarius Byrd get away to a division foe. Some have suggested that Ed Reed could hit the open market. We'll see. But with the Talib trade, the secondary situation seems to be solidifying.

That leaves LDE, DT, interior OL and WR as priorities for the draft ...

 

[ATippett56]

The Next 6 Months:

1. Trade Patrick Chung to Tampa Bay for CB Aqib Talib; alternatively, the Pats might trade a 2014 draft pick for Talib and use Chung as a hybrid S/LB this year

Congratulations on your call for trading Aqib Talib!

Let's hope Talib is worth a 2013 4th round draft pick this season and perhaps beyond.

 

[mayoclinic]

Congratulations on your call for trading Aqib Talib!

Let's hope Talib is worth a 2013 4th round draft pick this season and perhaps beyond.

Thanks.

I'm very excited about the Talib trade. Love the idea of committing to playing press/man CB with Talib/Dennard/Cole (and perhaps Dowling in the future), and I believe that McCourty playing FS provides a much more secure level of deep protection than we've had so far. If we're able to effecively bump receivers off their routes and play aggressive man coverage and play more aggressively on the front 7, it will dramatically change how our defense looks over the 2nd half of the season. So I see the addition of Talib plus the emergence of Dennard and the move of McCourty to safety as keys to the transformation of the defense, at least for this year.

 

[ATippett56]

That leaves LDE, DT, interior OL and WR as priorities for the draft ...

I respectfully disagree on left defensive end position since the New England Patriots have five defensive ends under contract for the 2013 NFL Season:

Chandler Jones
Rob Ninkovich
Jermaine Cunningham
Jake Bequette
Justin Francis

With regard to the defensive tackle position, the New England Patriots desperatively need a subpackage interior pass rush presence. Sheldon Richardson, DT from Missouri looks better and better by the day. On a one year minimum veteran contract with a miniscule signing and workout bonus, Myron Pryor could be retained for the 2013 NFL Season.

Vince Wilfork
Kyle Love
Brandon Deaderick
Myron Pryor
Sheldon Richardson

Logan Mankins and Dan Connolly will both turn 31 years of age next season, so an interior offensive lineman is a no brainer. Donald Thomas will be an unrestricted free agent.

Safety is still a higher priority than wide receiver since the New England Patriots only have three safeties under contract for the 2013 NFL Season:

Steven Gregory (meh)
Tavon Wilson
Nate Ebner

If the New England Patriots do not trade down from the first three rounds of the 2013 NFL Draft, I can foresee the following scenario:

1st Round: Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri
2nd Round: Larry Warford, OG Kentucky
3rd Round: Safety [Note 1]

Note 1: Baccari Rambo, FS Georgia (DS Rating 91); Shawn Williams, SS Georgia (DS Rating 127)

NFL Draft - 2013 NFL Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

NFL Draft - 2013 NFL Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

 

[Snake Eyes]

1st Round: Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri
2nd Round: Larry Warford, OG Kentucky
3rd Round: Safety [Note 1]

What needs can be addressed in free agency? We're not going to get a stud pass rusher or O-lineman in free agency so I'd rather try to draft what we can't buy.

 

[ATippett56]

What needs can be addressed in free agency? We're not going to get a stud pass rusher or O-lineman in free agency so I'd rather try to draft what we can't buy.

The New England Patriots will need to seriously consider re-signing the following unrestriced free agents:

Wes Welker (the straw that stirs the drink in the Patriots pass offense)
Sebastian Vollmer
Aqib Talib
Marquice Cole
Niko Koutouvides ?
Tracy White ?
Derrick Martin ?

The New England Patriots will need to seriously consider tendering the following restricted free agents:

Jake Ballard
Michael Who-man ?
Greg Salas (ERFA)
Dane Fletcher
Jeff Tarpinian (ERFA)
Sterling Moore (ERFA) ?

Mike Rivera (don't know his free agent status) ?

Heck, there may not be enough salary cap room to take care of the aforementioned unrestricted and restricted free agents. In addition, I would like the New England Patriots to bring back wide receiver Jabar Gaffney for one more season.

 

[ay-yo]

Nice call Mayo. However I have to disagree with some of your roster assessment:

Front 7:
Nink is on pace for 54 tackles, 8 sacks, 8 FF and 4 FR. (I know sacks aren't the best stat but I can't find pressure stats). He's at least adequate from that spot. Cunningham has looked like a respectable backup (1.5 sacks) and Bequette will almost certainly get another year and represents a player with some potential. I'm not sure where league averages lie but our top 3 DE's are on pace for 23 sacks. However the rest of the team is only on pace for 11 sacks. Part of the reason the rest of the team is only on pace for 11 sacks has to do with the lack of blitzing. But our interior pressure has been absolutely awful as Kyle Love is the only BIG DL with a sack (he has 1.5).

Secondary:
Best case scenario:
- Wilson progress throughout the year
- McCourty proves to be one of the better safeties in the league
- Talib plays up to his potential and resigns at a reasonable level of play
- Dennard continues to look like an NFL quality player

That still leaves us with no 3rd CB for 2013 unless you count Dowling but at this point counting on Dowling for anything is unwise. He couldn't beat out a bunch of scrubs for playing time for the majority of this season. His job is absolutely on the line and the plan should be to have him compete with low round draft picks for the 5th CB spot.

Upgrading the 3rd CB spot from scrub to league average will be significantly easier than upgrading the LDE spot from an average to young stud. Additionally there's the whole "your only as good as your weakest link" argument which supports addressing 3rd CB before LDE. I'd like to see us enter next year with something like:

S: McCourty, Wilson, Gregory, Ebner
CB: Talib, #1 pick, Dennard, pick 2 (Arrington, Cole, Dowling, late round picks, vet min guys)

And all of that is assuming best case scenario. It likely won't turn out that good and we'll need even more secondary help (sigh). Anyways here's to hoping our secondary turns it around.