Chung Compare To Griffin?

[BradyFTW!]

Not everybody is. There are always a few top-20 players who are either on their rookie contracts or on another contract that they've outplayed. For example, Kam Chancellor is easily a top-20 safety, but he's under contract for under a million a year for two more seasons. Chung will absolutely make more than him (pending a Chancellor extension, of course), but is not a better player than him.

Fair point- thanks for clarifying. My point was mostly semantics, in hindsight, but I see where you were going with that and agree with you.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Unless we see a significant improvement this year, I see no reason to value Chung at 5 million plus.

Agreed. It seems lot of people around here have some pretty major Chung blinders on. He's a pretty good player and all, but I just don't see whatever it is that makes people think that he's a key component who must be retained for upper-tier safety money.

 

[Ring 6]

Agreed. It seems lot of people around here have some pretty major Chung blinders on. He's a pretty good player and all, but I just don't see whatever it is that makes people think that he's a key component who must be retained for upper-tier safety money.

Really, it is very hard to evaluate Chung long term at this point, in my opinion.
He was very good as a 3rd S and special teamer in his rookie season. By that I mean very good play for a reserve.
He had a decent second season and did play through some injuries. He was a starter on a D that performed very well in not allowing points and taking the ball away, but struggled play to play to prevent the opponent from moving the ball.
Last year, in the year you would expect to see a big jump and good consistency in his second year starting, he battled injuries, as was part of a D that struggled. Did the D struggle because he wasn't there, or did he not provide the consistent play needed. That is not cut and dried either way.

I would not make any offer to Chung at this point. He has shown that he is a capable starting safety, and seems to have the potential to be more, but has not yet shown he is more. In his defense starting only 22 games in 3 years does make it harder to show he is that player.
I think that the opinion of Chung, in the GMs office as well as the HC office (I know, same guy, but one job considers ability and the other considers ability and cost) and the fans will probably solidify in one direction or the other in 2012.
He can play well but still be considered replacable. He could also play well enough this year to align himself as one of the building blocks. Of course the 3rd option is his play could fall off, like a Meriwhether.

 

[Sciz]

Agreed. It seems lot of people around here have some pretty major Chung blinders on. He's a pretty good player and all, but I just don't see whatever it is that makes people think that he's a key component who must be retained for upper-tier safety money.

Where does he rank among NFL safeties, then?

 

[Ring 6]

Do you think that if we evaluated the team's performance in the games that he played, that there would be a major improvement? I see it, you see it, we all see it. So far, he's been average most of the time,with a few awesome moments. Is the market for that really 7 mill a year these days?

I think there is no question the defense has played better with him on the field than without him.
I think the quality of his replacements brings into question how much that means.
My main point was saying the defense has not been good, so Chung must suck is silly.
He may start over 70% of the games he has in 3 years, in 2012. That would make a much better gauge of his ability than his first year as a starter and his second year missing half the season and playing hurt for part of the other half.
That could turn out to improve or detract from yours or my assessment of him today, but there isn't a wealth of play to judge his future on yet.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Where does he rank among NFL safeties, then?

In what capacity? Overall? It depends on what you're looking for in your safeties. There are at least 30 safeties--probably more--in the NFL right now that I would take over him, though.

To get into my top 20, he'd have to get a lot better in coverage, which, granted, he might. Speed will never be a strength of his, but that doesn't preclude him from being effective against the pass.

 

[Sciz]

In what capacity? Overall? It depends on what you're looking for in your safeties. There are at least 30 safeties--probably more--in the NFL right now that I would take over him, though.

Well that explains things. I don't know where I'd put him, but he's definitely in the top 20. And there's a huge difference in pay between those. The 20th highest paid safety is making $3.5M a year (although 19th is $4M), and the 30th is way down at $1.4M. I think he's in the first group, you think he's in the second.

 

[Ring 6]

In what capacity? Overall? It depends on what you're looking for in your safeties. There are at least 30 safeties--probably more--in the NFL right now that I would take over him, though.

To get into my top 20, he'd have to get a lot better in coverage, which, granted, he might. Speed will never be a strength of his, but that doesn't preclude him from being effective against the pass.

At least 30, and probably more? Wow, your opinion of him is basically that he sucks huh?

Here is a list of all Safeties who started 8 games last year. I highlighted the ones that I think are at least a debatable comparison to Chung, and bolded comment where appropriate

I tried to be exceedingly generous in considering anyone even in the ballpark as potentially comparable.
I came up with 22 players that deserve even a mention, and many of them clearly are not as good as Chung.
Who are your 'at least 30, maybe more'.

1 Mike Adams 2011 30 CLE NFL 16 16
2 Yeremiah Bell 2011 33 6-213 MIA NFL 16 16 33 years old
3 Antoine Bethea 2011 27 6-207 IND NFL 16 16
4 Morgan Burnett 2011 22 3-71 GNB NFL 16 16
5 Ryan Clark 2011 32 PIT NFL 16 1632 years old
6 Chris Crocker 2011 31 3-84 CIN NFL 16 16
7 Abram Elam 2011 30 DAL NFL 16 16
8 Michael Griffin 2011 26 1-19 TEN NFL 16 16
9 Roman Harper 2011 29 2-43 NOR NFL 16 16
10 Sean Jones 2011 29 2-59 TAM NFL 16 16
11 Dawan Landry 2011 29 5-146 JAX NFL 16 16
12 Kendrick Lewis 2011 27 5-136 KAN NFL 16 16
13 Quintin Mikell 2011 31 STL NFL 16 16
14 Reggie Nelson 2011 28 1-21 CIN NFL 16 16very debatalbe
15 Troy Polamalu 2011 30 1-16 PIT NFL 16 16
16 Ed Reed 2011 33 1-24 BAL NFL 16 16 33 years old
17 Antrel Rolle 2011 29 1-8 NYG NFL 16 16
18 Gerald Sensabaugh 2011 28 5-157 DAL NFL 16 16
19 Earl Thomas 2011 22 1-14 SEA NFL 16 16
20 Adrian Wilson 2011 32 3-64 ARI NFL 16 16 32 years old
Games
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS
21 Jairus Byrd 2011 25 2-42 BUF NFL 16 15
22 Kam Chancellor 2011 23 5-133 SEA NFL 15 15
23 Thomas DeCoud 2011 26 3-98 ATL NFL 16 15
24 Kenny Phillips 2011 25 1-31 NYG NFL 15 15
25 Jamarca Sanford 2011 26 7-231 MIN NFL 15 15
26 Amari Spievey 2011 23 3-66 DET NFL 15 15
27 Eric Weddle 2011 26 2-37 SDG NFL 16 15
28 Donte Whitner 2011 26 1-8 SFO NFL 15 15
29 Jordan Babineaux 2011 29 TEN NFL 16 14
30 Charles Godfrey 2011 26 3-67 CAR NFL 14 14
31 Dashon Goldson 2011 27 4-126 SFO NFL 14 14
32 Malcolm Jenkins 2011 24 1-14 NOR NFL 15 14
33 Charlie Peprah 2011 28 5-158 GNB NFL 16 14
34 Eric Smith 2011 28 3-97 NYJ NFL 16 14
35 Tyvon Branch 2011 25 4-100 OAK NFL 16 13
36 Kurt Coleman 2011 23 7-244 PHI NFL 15 13
37 Steve Gregory 2011 28 SDG NFL 15 13
38 Jim Leonhard 2011 29 NYJ NFL 13 13
39 Danieal Manning 2011 29 2-42 HOU NFL 13 13
40 Bernard Pollard 2011 27 2-54 BAL NFL 16 13
Games
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS
41 George Wilson 2011 30 BUF NFL 13 13
42 Nate Allen 2011 24 2-37 PHI NFL 15 12
43 Brian Dawkins 2011 38 2-61 DEN NFL 14 12
44 James Ihedigbo 2011 28 NWE NFL 16 12
45 Louis Delmas 2011 24 2-33 DET NFL 11 11
46 Reed Doughty 2011 29 6-173 WAS NFL 15 11
47 Michael Huff 2011 28 1-7 OAK NFL 11 11
48 Reshad Jones 2011 23 5-163 MIA NFL 15 11
49 Dwight Lowery 2011 25 4-113 JAX NFL 13 11
50 William Moore 2011 26 2-55 ATL NFL 12 11
51 Darian Stewart 2011 25 STL NFL 15 11
52 Quinton Carter 2011 23 4-108 DEN NFL 16 10
53 Tanard Jackson 2011 26 4-106 TAM NFL 10 10
54 Major Wright 2011 23 3-75 CHI NFL 12 10
55 Husain Abdullah 2011 26 MIN NFL 9 9
56 Chris Conte 2011 22 3-93 CHI NFL 14 9
57 Deon Grant 2011 32 2-57 NYG NFL 16 9
58 Rashad Johnson 2011 25 3-95 ARI NFL 16 9
59 Jon McGraw 2011 32 2-57 KAN NFL 10 9
60 Patrick Chung 2011 24 2-34 NWE NFL 8 8
Games
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS
61 Chris Harris 2011 29 6-181 NFL 11 8
62 LaRon Landry 2011 27 1-6 WAS NFL 8 8

 

[mgteich]

Isn't part of the issue how many games Chung is expecteds to be able to start. If he can start 16 games, then he is clearly in the top 20. If he can be expected to start 7, then the question is an open one.

At least 30, and probably more? Wow, your opinion of him is basically that he sucks huh?

Here is a list of all Safeties who started 8 games last year. I highlighted the ones that I think are at least a debatable comparison to Chung, and bolded comment where appropriate

I tried to be exceedingly generous in considering anyone even in the ballpark as potentially comparable.
I came up with 22 players that deserve even a mention, and many of them clearly are not as good as Chung.
Who are your 'at least 30, maybe more'.

1 Mike Adams 2011 30 CLE NFL 16 16
2 Yeremiah Bell 2011 33 6-213 MIA NFL 16 16 33 years old
3 Antoine Bethea 2011 27 6-207 IND NFL 16 16
4 Morgan Burnett 2011 22 3-71 GNB NFL 16 16
5 Ryan Clark 2011 32 PIT NFL 16 1632 years old
6 Chris Crocker 2011 31 3-84 CIN NFL 16 16
7 Abram Elam 2011 30 DAL NFL 16 16
8 Michael Griffin 2011 26 1-19 TEN NFL 16 16
9 Roman Harper 2011 29 2-43 NOR NFL 16 16
10 Sean Jones 2011 29 2-59 TAM NFL 16 16
11 Dawan Landry 2011 29 5-146 JAX NFL 16 16
12 Kendrick Lewis 2011 27 5-136 KAN NFL 16 16
13 Quintin Mikell 2011 31 STL NFL 16 16
14 Reggie Nelson 2011 28 1-21 CIN NFL 16 16very debatalbe
15 Troy Polamalu 2011 30 1-16 PIT NFL 16 16
16 Ed Reed 2011 33 1-24 BAL NFL 16 16 33 years old
17 Antrel Rolle 2011 29 1-8 NYG NFL 16 16
18 Gerald Sensabaugh 2011 28 5-157 DAL NFL 16 16
19 Earl Thomas 2011 22 1-14 SEA NFL 16 16
20 Adrian Wilson 2011 32 3-64 ARI NFL 16 16 32 years old
Games
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS
21 Jairus Byrd 2011 25 2-42 BUF NFL 16 15
22 Kam Chancellor 2011 23 5-133 SEA NFL 15 15
23 Thomas DeCoud 2011 26 3-98 ATL NFL 16 15
24 Kenny Phillips 2011 25 1-31 NYG NFL 15 15
25 Jamarca Sanford 2011 26 7-231 MIN NFL 15 15
26 Amari Spievey 2011 23 3-66 DET NFL 15 15
27 Eric Weddle 2011 26 2-37 SDG NFL 16 15
28 Donte Whitner 2011 26 1-8 SFO NFL 15 15
29 Jordan Babineaux 2011 29 TEN NFL 16 14
30 Charles Godfrey 2011 26 3-67 CAR NFL 14 14
31 Dashon Goldson 2011 27 4-126 SFO NFL 14 14
32 Malcolm Jenkins 2011 24 1-14 NOR NFL 15 14
33 Charlie Peprah 2011 28 5-158 GNB NFL 16 14
34 Eric Smith 2011 28 3-97 NYJ NFL 16 14
35 Tyvon Branch 2011 25 4-100 OAK NFL 16 13
36 Kurt Coleman 2011 23 7-244 PHI NFL 15 13
37 Steve Gregory 2011 28 SDG NFL 15 13
38 Jim Leonhard 2011 29 NYJ NFL 13 13
39 Danieal Manning 2011 29 2-42 HOU NFL 13 13
40 Bernard Pollard 2011 27 2-54 BAL NFL 16 13
Games
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS
41 George Wilson 2011 30 BUF NFL 13 13
42 Nate Allen 2011 24 2-37 PHI NFL 15 12
43 Brian Dawkins 2011 38 2-61 DEN NFL 14 12
44 James Ihedigbo 2011 28 NWE NFL 16 12
45 Louis Delmas 2011 24 2-33 DET NFL 11 11
46 Reed Doughty 2011 29 6-173 WAS NFL 15 11
47 Michael Huff 2011 28 1-7 OAK NFL 11 11
48 Reshad Jones 2011 23 5-163 MIA NFL 15 11
49 Dwight Lowery 2011 25 4-113 JAX NFL 13 11
50 William Moore 2011 26 2-55 ATL NFL 12 11
51 Darian Stewart 2011 25 STL NFL 15 11
52 Quinton Carter 2011 23 4-108 DEN NFL 16 10
53 Tanard Jackson 2011 26 4-106 TAM NFL 10 10
54 Major Wright 2011 23 3-75 CHI NFL 12 10
55 Husain Abdullah 2011 26 MIN NFL 9 9
56 Chris Conte 2011 22 3-93 CHI NFL 14 9
57 Deon Grant 2011 32 2-57 NYG NFL 16 9
58 Rashad Johnson 2011 25 3-95 ARI NFL 16 9
59 Jon McGraw 2011 32 2-57 KAN NFL 10 9
60 Patrick Chung 2011 24 2-34 NWE NFL 8 8
Games
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS
61 Chris Harris 2011 29 6-181 NFL 11 8
62 LaRon Landry 2011 27 1-6 WAS NFL 8 8

 

[Ring 6]

Isn't part of the issue how many games Chung is expecteds to be able to start. If he can start 16 games, then he is clearly in the top 20. If he can be expected to start 7, then the question is an open one.

I dont know how you can consider him a bigger injury risk than mostly anyone else when he played 16 and 14 games his 1st 2 years before sustaining a broken thumb last year (certainly not the kind that is indicative of some type of injury prone flaw).
Before last year, he was on the durable side.
Broken bones are not inherent to the player, but just bad luck.
Not sure why you suggest he is any less reliable to be on the field than a typical safety.

 

[Deus Irae]

At least 30, and probably more? Wow, your opinion of him is basically that he sucks huh?

Here is a list of all Safeties who started 8 games last year. I highlighted the ones that I think are at least a debatable comparison to Chung...

I didn't look at the list because this really isn't my thing, but two things stand out to me just from my reading of your post and my eye scanning down:

1.) Your list excludes a guy like Eric Berry, who'll be back this year and is a much better player than Chung.

2.) A healthy Landry is better than a healthy Chung.

 

[everlong]

1.) Your list excludes a guy like Eric Berry, who'll be back this year and is a much better player than Chung.

2.) A healthy Landry is better than a healthy Chung.

#1 is beyond debate as long as his ACL is good to go. If not for the injury he was set to move into the elite group.

#2 I'm not so sure. I think Landry may be a better run defender but he's a serious liability in coverage and Chung has gotten to the point where he understands the defense and has become a leader which in the Patriots system makes him very valuable. His coverage has also improved. His rookie year I questioned if he'd ever be able to play man on down in the slot like Rodney did but he's improved dramatically.

 

[Ring 6]

I didn't look at the list because this really isn't my thing, but two things stand out to me just from my reading of your post and my eye scanning down:

1.) Your list excludes a guy like Eric Berry, who'll be back this year and is a much better player than Chung.

2.) A healthy Landry is better than a healthy Chung.

Sure, there could be guys omitted who didn't play.
If one of the knocks on Chung is health, its hard to put Landry ahead of him because of the frequent, severe and recurring injuries and also the liklihood he will never be the same player. At this point I don't think many teams would choose Landry over Chung in their current state of health, and the potential impact of health on their future.

 

[Triumph]

Yup and he started 22 of 48 games in 3 years, so using team stats for 3 years as the means of judging his ability is foolish.

Flip Flopper

Maroney started very few games and you had him as NEs best RB. Every NE player is graded after every game and after every season on their performance regardless if they started or not. Thats the way it is and only a fool would think Chung somehow gets a free pass.

 

[Triumph]

Do you think that if we evaluated the team's performance in the games that he played, that there would be a major improvement? I see it, you see it, we all see it. So far, he's been average most of the time,with a few awesome moments. Is the market for that really 7 mill a year these days?

Unless Chung really plays lights out this season, the Pats should let Chungs contract expire and let him shop around the NFL for a deal with NE having an agreement to match it like BJGE.

Today, Chung is not a make or break player where the NE defense would just fall apart if he were gone.

 

[jah]

Unless Chung really plays lights out this season, the Pats should let Chungs contract expire and let him shop around the NFL for a deal with NE having an agreement to match it like BJGE.

Today, Chung is not a make or break player where the NE defense would just fall apart if he were gone.

Our defense fell apart without him in 2011.

 

[Ring 6]

Unless Chung really plays lights out this season, the Pats should let Chungs contract expire and let him shop around the NFL for a deal with NE having an agreement to match it like BJGE.

Today, Chung is not a make or break player where the NE defense would just fall apart if he were gone.

I don't think 'lights out' is necessary. I think if he has a good year, then resigning him makes a lot of sense. I'm not sure why you think the Patriots had any kind of a deal with BJGE or why you think players are agreeable to a negotiation that says tell us what someone else will pay you and we will match if we like it, not match if we don't, but don't waste our time trying to work out a deal.

 

[Ring 6]

Flip Flopper

Maroney started very few games and you had him as NEs best RB. Every NE player is graded after every game and after every season on their performance regardless if they started or not. Thats the way it is and only a fool would think Chung somehow gets a free pass.

What does Maroney have to do with this? Starts at RB at irrelevant because we often start in different packages so the 'starting' RB may not be on the field the first play. The number of snaps played is obviously the determination of who is the primary RB, and any idiot can understand that.

At Safety the same holds true, but it pretty much every case, the guy who starts is the guy who plays the most, especially over the course of a season.
Chung was the 3rd safety in his rookie year. If you need a stat sheet to tell you that, you should watch more games and learn something.
He was the started in 2010 and 2011, yet missed 11 (10 plus most of an 11th) games in those 2 seasons.
If you cannot understand why the evaluation of a player who was a backup as a rookie, a starter in year 2, and a starter who missed half of year 3 is not yet complete, would you please stop trolling my posts and learn something before you waste my time?

Or are you really trying to tell me that the team's stats and performance over 3 years is a good barmoeter of Chungs play when he started 22 of 48 games and was a backup in 17 more?

 

[MaineMan]

I think Andy's being pretty reasonable on this one.

For me, it's difficult to evaluate Chung's overall contributions in isolation - not only because of the relative lack of exposure, but because the rest of the defense around him has been in more or less constant flux for the past couple seasons which has undoubtedly had a significant impact on his assignments and possibly on his development of coverage skills. For instance, the 2010 DL was a sieve against the run and Chung (along with Mayo and others) was forced compensate for that - which he did very well, but perhaps at the expense of his coverage (though he did have 3 picks and 9 PDs). In 2011, the DL run-D was better, but Chung, like McCourty, had no other reliable safety help (though I thought his coverage DID improve some).

The other thing that Andy mentioned is the replacement angle. "Let Chung walk if he wants more than X dollars" is fine to say if you have a specific replacement in mind who would be an improvement or at least as good for less money (and, you know, actually available at the time), but who is that, exactly? I'm not saying that the guy doesn't exist, just that it seems more reasonable to discuss Chung-v.-someone specific than Chung-v.-"unnamed replacement player" or a 2013 draft pick who might not see the field much his first season regardless.

I'm firmly in the "wait-and-see" camp. It feels to me like the defense is going to be much deeper in 2012 and have fewer glaring holes overall. Hypothetically, Chung's performance should improve with perhaps fewer things to worry about (assuming he's healthy most of the time).

 

[patsinthesnow]

Our defense fell apart without him in 2011.

Who knows how much of it was Chung, but this a good point. When Chung, Spikes, and Moore returned for the playoffs the defense went from awful to good.

Edit: ok that was more Spikes