Wes Welker says he has nine and a half million reasons to play

[pherein]

That sounds suspiciously like "amateur analysis" to me, but personally, I don't disagree at all. I've never crtiicized what BB's done this offseason. I don't feel that BB is missing the mark at all. I never was on the bandwagon to bring in a "prototypical, tall sped burner #1 WR". I like what he's done in bringing in a bunch of new "complimentary" (sic) weapons and moving towards a "too many weapons to cover" approach, somewhat similar to what the Saints do. All I've said is that the number of play opportunities is finite, and that effectively involving those weapons will involve reducing Welker's role somewhat, which could be at odds with his salary demands based on past performance. I'm sorry if that's too radical a concept. I've never suggested that Welker couldn't play a tremendously effective and important role in the offense. But I think that his role will have to be modified somewhat if the Pats are really going to effectively use some of their other weapons.

We have talked about this before. Couldn't agree with you more. Not taking anything from BB, but I see the Pats shifting to the "you can't cover everyone offense" that SP created. BB knows that this has been tested, and it works. The Saints record on offense might be record setting from 2006-2011, and its all based on that kind of offense.
Medium to low cost above talent that can be trained. Maybe one big contract, like bush, but more of a diversion. I think BB knows change, and the offensive change in the NFL has to start looking at the Saints offense. Its documented and it works, and very consistent.
Forte, I thought was a perfect piece for you, but old news.
BB is brilliant, but one reason he is because he adapts. He knows that the future of offenses is what was created in NO, and has one of the few QB's that can pull it off. Though a lot forget the RB, and scat back position, its fundamental. In our offense it doesn't matter if your a Welker or moss. ITs a team effort, and if your open fine. Welker would never have the #'s he does on the Saints.
We want a mismatch. He might do good for 2 games then disappear for 5, its a chess match to SP.
If welkers role is diminish, and your get better thats a good thing. I know our offense hasn't caught on yet around the league, little surprised by that, but I really agree BB is trying to do this. SP and him , fish, talk, are still friends.
It works, and is proven. Just ask yourself what the world would be like if SP had a top 10-15 defense sense 2006. Shows his desperation in getting one, and it might be a very different world.
Not that that matters. SP's idea of an offense has impressive #'s sense 2006, would be surprised if BB didn't take notice.

 

[mayoclinic]

We have talked about this before. Couldn't agree with you more. Not taking anything from BB, but I see the Pats shifting to the "you can't cover everyone offense" that SP created. BB knows that this has been tested, and it works. The Saints record on offense might be record setting from 2006-2011, and its all based on that kind of offense. Medium to low cost above [average] talent that can be trained. Maybe one big contract, like bush, but more of a diversion. I think BB knows change, and the offensive change in the NFL has to start looking at the Saints offense. Its documented and it works, and very consistent.

Forte, I thought was a perfect piece for you, but old news.

BB is brilliant, but one reason he is because he adapts. He knows that the future of offenses is what was created in NO, and has one of the few QB's that can pull it off. Though a lot forget the RB and scat back position, its fundamental. In our offense it doesn't matter if your a Welker or moss. its a team effort, and if you're open fine. Welker would never have the #'s he does on the Saints. We want a mismatch. He might do good for 2 games then disappear for 5, its a chess match to SP. If welkers role is diminish[ed], and your get better thats a good thing.

I know our offense hasn't caught on yet around the league, little surprised by that, but I really agree BB is trying to do this. SP and him fish, talk, are still friends. It works, and is proven. Just ask yourself what the world would be like if SP had a top 10-15 defense sense 2006. Shows his desperation in getting one, and it might be a very different world. Not that that matters. SP's idea of an offense has impressive #'s sn[c]e 2006, would be surprised if BB didn't take notice.

Great post.

As you say, BB has proven himself to be adaptable over time. Nothing is absolute. The Pats have proven from 2007-2011 that they could build a tremendously explosive and productive offense. But no matter how prolific the numbers, it has been an offense built around a limited number of impact weapons, and it has been too easy for playoff-caliber defenses to stop those weapons when it counts the most. Injuries haven't helped (Welker's ACL tear, Gronk's ankle), but fundamentally it's easier for a good defense to stop an offense built around 2-3 great players than it is to stop an offense built around 5-6 very good ones. Again, it's heresy around here, but I think it is a fundamental mistake to target any single player as much as the Pats have targeted Welker. The goal should be to create mismatches and find the open man, whoever that is. Spreading the ball around more will create more mismatches and more open opportunities. Remember when Tom Brady's "favorite" receiver was always the guy who was open? That seems a long time ago.

The Saints have provided the blueprint and an existence proof that this approach works. It is cost-effective, it is less dependent on any individual player and therefore more resistant to injuries, and it is very hard to stop. Even the 49ers' defense, which was top notch last year, struggled against the Saints in the playoffs. The Saints lost because they had no defense, not because their offense was shut down.

I think your comments about the role of the scat back in the Saints' offense is important. I've been screaming for more involvement of the RBs in the offense since 2009. The Saints have done a brilliant job of integrating "flex backs" like Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas into their attack. I think that adds a dimension which makes the offense almost impossible to stop, and it's something that I strongly hope the Pats will do more of with Ridley, Woodhead and especially Vereen. I was a big fan of adding a guy like Forte (unlikely) or Doug Martin because I thought they would complete the offense, but there should be enough talent in the backfield if the Pats are willing to actually use it.


I think that all of the moves in the offseason are a strong sign that BB is moving in this general direction. He's seen his record-setting offense sputter in the playoffs against the Ravens and Giants last year and against the Jets in 2010.

 

[mayoclinic]

$7.5M is what the top TE's in the league make. The franchise tag for TE's this year was $5.4M. Unless they both take home town discounts in exchange for early deals, it's likely only one of them gets a top tier deal and the other may have to settle for an incremental deal or wear the tag for a while or get flipped for picks. It's also likely that we never have them both signed to top of the market deals because we have yet to have multiple players in the same unit signed to those. In fact we have yet to have more than 3-4 players signed to top of the market deals.

The value for the TE position is changing, and Gronk and Hernandez are at the forefront of that change. Guards used to be undervalued, but now top guards routinely get $8+M/year. The salary structure for TEs will change. Jermichael Finley got $7M/2 years from the Packers. I can't see Hernandez' market value being any less than that, and Gronk's will be more.

Your point about the Pats never having paid big contracts to multiple players from the same position is a good one. But they've never had 2 guys in their prime with the impact of Gronk and Hernandez come up for extensions at the same time before. It will be interesting to see whether the Pats are willing to let one of them move on or whether they pay up. I personally think they realize that Gronk and Hernandez are the future of the offense and will make every effort to keep both.

 

[Deus Irae]

We have talked about this before. Couldn't agree with you more. Not taking anything from BB, but I see the Pats shifting to the "you can't cover everyone offense" that SP created. BB knows that this has been tested, and it works. The Saints record on offense might be record setting from 2006-2011, and its all based on that kind of offense.
Medium to low cost above talent that can be trained. Maybe one big contract, like bush, but more of a diversion. I think BB knows change, and the offensive change in the NFL has to start looking at the Saints offense. Its documented and it works, and very consistent.
Forte, I thought was a perfect piece for you, but old news.
BB is brilliant, but one reason he is because he adapts. He knows that the future of offenses is what was created in NO, and has one of the few QB's that can pull it off. Though a lot forget the RB, and scat back position, its fundamental. In our offense it doesn't matter if your a Welker or moss. ITs a team effort, and if your open fine. Welker would never have the #'s he does on the Saints.
We want a mismatch. He might do good for 2 games then disappear for 5, its a chess match to SP.
If welkers role is diminish, and your get better thats a good thing. I know our offense hasn't caught on yet around the league, little surprised by that, but I really agree BB is trying to do this. SP and him , fish, talk, are still friends.
It works, and is proven. Just ask yourself what the world would be like if SP had a top 10-15 defense sense 2006. Shows his desperation in getting one, and it might be a very different world.
Not that that matters. SP's idea of an offense has impressive #'s sense 2006, would be surprised if BB didn't take notice.

1.) Welker's a mismatch in almost every game. It's why he's setting total catch records. He'd get similar totals in the Saints offense.

edit: There would be an adjustment question here, actually, but it's about Brees' height, and the ability of him to find Welker as often when looking over the middle.

2.) I'm not sure what offense you think the Saints have invented. The idea of spreading the ball around certainly didn't start there.

3.) The Saints take advantage of being in a dome, which is something the Patriots can't do.

 

[Gronkandez]

The value for the TE position is changing, and Gronk and Hernandez are at the forefront of that change. Guards used to be undervalued, but now top guards routinely get $8+M/year. The salary structure for TEs will change. Jermichael Finley got $7M/2 years from the Packers. I can't see Hernandez' market value being any less than that, and Gronk's will be more.

And Finley was coming off a very poor season where he was dropping balls left and right. Gronk will probably get $10M/year and Hernandez more like $6M/yr IMO. Of course it all depends on where you think the cap will trend with the new TV deal. I think Gronk gets $10M/yr even w/o a huge cap increase.

 

[supafly]

And Finley was coming off a very poor season where he was dropping balls left and right. Gronk will probably get $10M/year and Hernandez more like $6M/yr IMO. Of course it all depends on where you think the cap will trend with the new TV deal. I think Gronk gets $10M/yr even w/o a huge cap increase.

It no longer appears that we will see the cap spike that many expected during the 2014 season, as Kraft and others said it will be more gradual; so I don't think it will have much bearing, if any on the situations of our 2 TE's.

I agree with your number on A.Hernandez, but I think (hope) that Gronkowski can be signed for a couple million per yr less...somewhere approx. 8 mill per.

Either way, there's little possibility in my opinion that the NEP will set a number as low as 7.5 for the two young TE's of the future, as it will cost approx. 2x that.

6 for Hernandez and 8 for Gronk are good estimates in my opinion.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Great post.

As you say, BB has proven himself to be adaptable over time. Nothing is absolute. The Pats have proven from 2007-2011 that they could build a tremendously explosive and productive offense. But no matter how prolific the numbers, it has been an offense built around a limited number of impact weapons, and it has been too easy for playoff-caliber defenses to stop those weapons when it counts the most. Injuries haven't helped (Welker's ACL tear, Gronk's ankle), but fundamentally it's easier for a good defense to stop an offense built around 2-3 great players than it is to stop an offense built around 5-6 very good ones. Again, it's heresy around here, but I think it is a fundamental mistake to target any single player as much as the Pats have targeted Welker. The goal should be to create mismatches and find the open man, whoever that is. Spreading the ball around more will create more mismatches and more open opportunities. Remember when Tom Brady's "favorite" receiver was always the guy who was open? That seems a long time ago.

The Saints have provided the blueprint and an existence proof that this approach works. It is cost-effective, it is less dependent on any individual player and therefore more resistant to injuries, and it is very hard to stop. Even the 49ers' defense, which was top notch last year, struggled against the Saints in the playoffs. The Saints lost because they had no defense, not because their offense was shut down.

I think your comments about the role of the scat back in the Saints' offense is important. I've been screaming for more involvement of the RBs in the offense since 2009. The Saints have done a brilliant job of integrating "flex backs" like Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas into their attack. I think that adds a dimension which makes the offense almost impossible to stop, and it's something that I strongly hope the Pats will do more of with Ridley, Woodhead and especially Vereen. I was a big fan of adding a guy like Forte (unlikely) or Doug Martin because I thought they would complete the offense, but there should be enough talent in the backfield if the Pats are willing to actually use it.


I think that all of the moves in the offseason are a strong sign that BB is moving in this general direction. He's seen his record-setting offense sputter in the playoffs against the Ravens and Giants last year and against the Jets in 2010.

Not so sure it's as cost effective as you seem to think.

salary-cap space - NFC South Blog - ESPN

FWIW we're about $24M UNDER the 2013 cap with 43 players under contract including a QB with a $21.8M cap hit, for now. And that's before we roll over whatever remains of the $10M or so we will be under the 2012 cap by once the rookies are all signed.

I know whatever the Saints approach to scheme or cap is it doesn't work any better than Bill's approach consistently has over time.

 

[pherein]

1.) Welker's a mismatch in almost every game. It's why he's setting total catch records. He'd get similar totals in the Saints offense.

I think he's setting catch total records because you really don't have that many good WR's. Put your line up against GB or Saints, and there is a lot more talent on those two teams. More guys open. Problem with just having a welker and Moss, expensive elite WR's, is you have to thread the needle more, and Brady becomes dependent on them. Welker was double covered in the SB, and had to make an amazing catch, and didn't. So the offense sputters and dies. You don't see our guys having to make those elite catches, because someones open. But your other recovers dropped a few before that catch . Not like Brady has a choice.
They can double cover gonk and welker all day. No defense is worried about your other receivers. Welker gets more passes because Brady doesn't have many choices.
Moore is always just behind Welker in catch %, 5ft9". Welker would never get the #'s he has on the Pats. Brees doesn't have a favorite, and thats what makes playing us so hard for a defense. You can't double cover anyone. If you do probably 3 guys are open.
Maybe colston is elite, but everyone else is just very good, and that just repetitions, coaching.
If I put spoles, colston,graham, meachum, and thomas on the field, who exactly are you going to cover ? waiting to go in is henderson, ivory, arrington, roby
IS it a sweep play? Lateral ? Reverse? Bomb? short pass to the RB? Run up the middle?
Your never going to know.
No defense is worried about your RB's or anyone else except branch,walker, and gronk.
Hernz is the only guy you got left. Welker #'s are because you don't have better targets for Brady, I think. He'd do Lance Moore #'s on the Saints.

edit: There would be an adjustment question here, actually, but it's about Brees' height, and the ability of him to find Welker as often when looking over the middle.

Lance Moore is shorter, finds him easy. If Brees was 6ft3 his arms would be longer also, making his release slower. Ive never understood why people think 3 inches on a QB makes any difference. Vick is 6ft also. Don't hear people calling him short. QB is about work ethic, accuracy, competitiveness, quick analytical thinking, and pocket presence. Height and arm strength are over rated, lol.

2.) I'm not sure what offense you think the Saints have invented. The idea of spreading the ball around certainly didn't start there.

Were not a spread offense. we are a ..
Smash Mouth
Wing T Offense
Option
Pro Set
Vertical Offense
West Coast offense
Run and Shoot
The Spread
Spread Option
Pistol Offense
What SP created was an offense that is not just west coast. It can morph into what it needs to be to beat the defense, and he has got the players and pieces to do it. IT is 7000 plays that look like 23 , I think, similar formations. So the defense will never know how he is going to play. Any formation could be one of 300 or so different offense philosophies. So even if you watch the film, you still don't know what is coming. Its pretty smart really.
What SP created we call the "You can't cover everyone offense", and you really can't.
Watch the 49ers game. We smashed it down their throats running until PT got hurt, then spread, them WC, and etc.. Then later smash mouth again with Ivory, because Graham got taken out.

The problem with the Saints offense is it requires a QB with a huge brain,lol. Brees doesn't even wear a wrist play band, and their are 1000's of plays. Its way more complicated than most think, and no way any rookie QB could handle it. Its overly complicated, because of SP, but built to look simplistic. Brady could do it, but Big Ben, Vick, Romo, or maybe even Rogers would be a disaster.

3.) The Saints take advantage of being in a dome, which is something the Patriots can't do.

We don't need a Dome thats kind of a myth. Saints put 32pts on the the #1 defense 49ers, 34pts on GB, and 36pts on the seahawks out doors. The problem with the Saints out doors is its defense. For some reason they can't get off the field, that kills time. Saints would put 34pts on the Pats in foxboro. Our defense has always been our problem. Offense can make points anywhere. Weather is a different issue, but that bothers all teams.

 

[pherein]

Great post.

As you say, BB has proven himself to be adaptable over time. Nothing is absolute. The Pats have proven from 2007-2011 that they could build a tremendously explosive and productive offense. But no matter how prolific the numbers, it has been an offense built around a limited number of impact weapons, and it has been too easy for playoff-caliber defenses to stop those weapons when it counts the most. Injuries haven't helped (Welker's ACL tear, Gronk's ankle), but fundamentally it's easier for a good defense to stop an offense built around 2-3 great players than it is to stop an offense built around 5-6 very good ones. Again, it's heresy around here, but I think it is a fundamental mistake to target any single player as much as the Pats have targeted Welker. The goal should be to create mismatches and find the open man, whoever that is. Spreading the ball around more will create more mismatches and more open opportunities. Remember when Tom Brady's "favorite" receiver was always the guy who was open? That seems a long time ago.

The Saints have provided the blueprint and an existence proof that this approach works. It is cost-effective, it is less dependent on any individual player and therefore more resistant to injuries, and it is very hard to stop. Even the 49ers' defense, which was top notch last year, struggled against the Saints in the playoffs. The Saints lost because they had no defense, not because their offense was shut down.

I think your comments about the role of the scat back in the Saints' offense is important. I've been screaming for more involvement of the RBs in the offense since 2009. The Saints have done a brilliant job of integrating "flex backs" like Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas into their attack. I think that adds a dimension which makes the offense almost impossible to stop, and it's something that I strongly hope the Pats will do more of with Ridley, Woodhead and especially Vereen. I was a big fan of adding a guy like Forte (unlikely) or Doug Martin because I thought they would complete the offense, but there should be enough talent in the backfield if the Pats are willing to actually use it.


I think that all of the moves in the offseason are a strong sign that BB is moving in this general direction. He's seen his record-setting offense sputter in the playoffs against the Ravens and Giants last year and against the Jets in 2010.

Thanks same
Welker is amazing, but you could be just find with a lance moore type. I love Welker, Ive even got his jersey,lol. Guys like him are one in a 1000's. Like Thomas, a nobody, who's is to slow to be a running back.
Ive always thought that running back was the 2nd hardest position on the field. The main reason is that RB's have to have a ability from birth that can't be coached to be good or great.
If you don't have perifial vision, or whatever the intangible is to find an opening or make people miss in a sea of bodies trying to take your head off, your never going to have it.
The ability to feel your way threw the defense without seeing or thinking is not a common ability, and Ive noticed speed has nothing to do with the RB position, and over training a RB can actually hurt this naturally born ability. speed is over rated.

When you take the ball and hit the hole its less than a second. You can't see anything really. You feel your way threw and just instinctively know what angles to take or where the enemies are in space around you. Its mostly an instinctive position.

They also need to be tougher than anyone on the field, and have and uncanny motor or drive to constantly hit a brick wall, get back up, and still think no one is going to stop you.

Going from college to the NFL must be very difficult. The instinct in your head has to change to account for bigger and faster guys in the secondary. You might still feel them, but are surprised by how fast they get to you, close angles you thought were open, and that they can even catch you from behind must be a shock,lol. It would have shocked me.

Ive notice RB's that get confused in space in the NFL typically take on the bruiser approach, smashing into a enemy, and hoping to put him down to get a open lane, instead of knowing the angles. Or like Bush, over juke at wrong times. Thomas just has it. Thats a running back. Welker just has it.

Yeah, the NFL defenses know your guys, and double covering them and leaving Chad or Branch one on one isn't a problem for them. I think most have to ask themselves why did Brady throw into double coverage to welker at all in the SB game?
Thats the telling part. He was covered pretty well, and thats a risky throw.
I think he had no option. Dropped passes, and no one open or he had confidence in. No back field RB to screen to, pretty much nothing.

This is pretty telling


Offenses

2006
NO #5 Passing #1 Rushing #19
Pats #12 Passing #12 Rushing #12

2007
NO #13 Passing #3 Rushing #28
Pats #1 Passing #1 Rushing #13

2008
NO #1 Passing #1 Rushing #28
Pats #8 Passing #12 Rushing #6

2009
NO #1 Passing #4 Rushing #6 ( way more balanced and what SP was shooting for)
Pats #6 Passing #3 Rushing #12

2010
NO #11 Passing #3 Rushing #28
Pats #1 Passing #11 Rushing #9

2011
NO #2 Passing #1 Rushing #6 ( same #1 rating created by runs)
Pats #3 Passing #2 Rushing #20

Its hard to define our run game because we screen from the back field so much, but interesting stats. I agree tho. We have a lot of players that can fill injuries. The Flex back is essential in todays NFL. Its creates a dimension the defense has to deal with. Bush did nothing in NO, he was a decoy, and if you ignored him, we would pass to him in the flat. Forcing you to cover him with your best LB and FS. Which opened the run up the middle, as bush pulled the guy off to the side.
People that don't believe in a solid RB core are in the dark ages of pass first offense.
RB are WR's now, and they kill blitz, and are pass blockers. A great RB is needed probably more than a elite WR in my book.
Id rather have a thomas or sproles on my offense than a Moss. If Brady does not have welker or gronk open, dump to thomas or spoles. rinse and repeat. 5 yard, 10 yards, 4 yards. Defenses get tired of that. They stop blitzing. Allows you to dictate the game. Addai made me think bb is following this train of thought.
He has the instinct, but probably not a good runner anymore, but a great pass blocker, and a seasoned screen play guy. He's a dump off, I think. For cheap I think addai is for passing plays as a relief valve.

 

[pherein]

Not so sure it's as cost effective as you seem to think.

salary-cap space - NFC South Blog - ESPN

FWIW we're about $24M UNDER the 2013 cap with 43 players under contract including a QB with a $21.8M cap hit, for now. And that's before we roll over whatever remains of the $10M or so we will be under the 2012 cap by once the rookies are all signed.

I know whatever the Saints approach to scheme or cap is it doesn't work any better than Bill's approach consistently has over time.

We just let them go MoLewisrocks. Its that simple. Moore was on the market for 5 seasons as a FA. Thomas you had a shot at, 4 seasons. We pay you market value, you don't like it, we have other guys waiting to get a shot.
Browns want to over pay your, like for fujita, fine, we move on. Loomies never going to pay you that. Brees is different because he's a game changer, but bush.... um see ya

Look at it this way if you had given up a 3rd draft and taken Lance moore from us, we might not be having this talk. Moore is good he can almost do welders role, and for millions less. Almost is the key.

 

[mayoclinic]

Id rather have a thomas or sproles on my offense than a Moss. If Brady does not have welker or gronk open, dump to thomas or spoles. rinse and repeat. 5 yard, 10 yards, 4 yards. Defenses get tired of that. They stop blitzing. Allows you to dictate the game. Addai made me think bb is following this train of thought. He has the instinct, but probably not a good runner anymore, but a great pass blocker, and a seasoned screen play guy. He's a dump off, I think. For cheap I think addai is for passing plays as a relief valve.

I agree with you, though we're in the minority, both here and in the NFL. The league has gone crazy over WRs and the outside passing game, as the feeding frenzing in FA shows. But as Jay Shields (Jays52 on this board) has observed elsewhere:

Since the advent of the modern passing game, deep receivers have been consistently overvalued. They do make spectacular plays and are for lack of a better term intimidating. They will open things up against all but the best defenses. However, when you have an outside receiver who really just does deep defenses will take him away. It will be accomplished by either rush or really good coverage, but it is not an issue of "if" but of "when". It is much harder to consistently defend adaptability than it is to consistently defend awe-inspiring athleticism. What it comes down to in low scoring games is having a player that can execute a more diverse compliment of routes as it will enable you to make that one critical drive that those games come down to. That is our entire conversation for this team in a nutshell. They already will win the vast majority of games, but when competing against a defense that is going to dramatically slow you your ability to counterpunch is exponentially more important.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...lloyd-meeting-49ers-patriots-gonna-blow.html (post #179)

Tight ends have been described as the "queen on the chessboard" by Mike Smith and called "compound multipliers" because they increase the adaptability of an offense and provide the ability to counterpunch on the fly and attack in multiple dimensions. IMHO a "flex back" (as Off the Grid calls it) - a running back with receiving and blocking skills, and with the ability to be used in different formations including being spread out wide and in the slot - provides similar functionality and value. Those kind of players can be used to attack on the ground, pick up the blitz, as a safety release valve, on screen passes, can be split out wide, can be moved into the spot. Defenses have to account for them on every play, and they provide the ability to adapt on the fly to what the defense is doing.

The Saints reportedly offered Pierre Thomas straight up for Darius Butler in 2010, and BB turned them down. One of the biggest mistakes in BB's tenure with the Pats, IMHO. Thomas is incredibly valuable. Sproles has taken the New Orleans offense to another level. Both of those guys are tremendous weapons.

Receivers are over-valued in the NFL right now, IMHO. Backs with the versatility of a Thomas or Sproles are seriously under-valued. I thought that someone like Doug Martin or Matt Forte could have really taken the Pats' offense to another level. But hopefully they will have enough weapons, and Josh McDaniels will figure out how to use them.

Wes Welker is a tremendous weapon. No doubt about it. But he would be just as effective if not more so putting up 2/3 of his numbers in a more diversified offense where Brady isn't forcing the ball to him so much of the time.

I know that this is just armchair over-analysis by an over-zealous fan and that I don't have some people's benefit of just "observing" BB like some homunculus sitting on his shoulder. JMHO.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think he's setting catch total records because you really don't have that many good WR's....

Pherein, if I want nonsensical and ignorant bashing of Welker, I can get plenty of that here from Patriots fans. I expect better of outsiders.

2007 - 112 catches (6 players with 30+ receptions, including Faulk at RB)

Moore is always just behind Welker in catch %, 5ft9". Welker would never get the #'s he has on the Pats. Brees doesn't have a favorite, and thats what makes playing us so hard for a defense. You can't double cover anyone. If you do probably 3 guys are open.
Maybe colston is elite, but everyone else is just very good, and that just repetitions, coaching.

Of course Brees has a favorite receiver. Colston has led the team in receiving yardage in 4 of the last 6 seasons. The two seasons he hasn't have been his injury season (only played 11 games) and last year when Graham broke the TE record and had Gronk break his new record. Other than the injury season, Colston has been the clear favorite target among the WRs, as well, catching more passes than any other WR, by a large margin.

If I put spoles, colston,graham, meachum, and thomas on the field, who exactly are you going to cover ? waiting to go in is henderson, ivory, arrington, roby
IS it a sweep play? Lateral ? Reverse? Bomb? short pass to the RB? Run up the middle?
Your never going to know.
No defense is worried about your RB's or anyone else except branch,walker, and gronk.
Hernz is the only guy you got left. Welker #'s are because you don't have better targets for Brady, I think. He'd do Lance Moore #'s on the Saints.

You're now arguing against something I haven't claimed in an attempt to build up your team, since I've been harping on the Patriots WR issues since 2009. However, if you want to compare current squads, the Patriots are likely to be the first team to ever field 5 players that had 900+ yards receiving the year before.

Lloyd
Welker
Gaffney
Gronk
Hernandez

Beyond that, Branch had 700+ yards, while Woodhead had a very respectable 34 catches in 2010 (he got dinged up early last year and was not the same afterwards).

Lance Moore is shorter, finds him easy. If Brees was 6ft3 his arms would be longer also, making his release slower. Ive never understood why people think 3 inches on a QB makes any difference. Vick is 6ft also. Don't hear people calling him short. QB is about work ethic, accuracy, competitiveness, quick analytical thinking, and pocket presence. Height and arm strength are over rated, lol.

Height matters, regardless of what you and I may wish were true (I'm not saying it's an obstacle that can't be overcome or anything, just that it can impact a QB's vision and throws in certain situations). However, I wasn't trying to belittle Brees in any way, but was acknowledging an aspect of the game that might impact a Breez-Welker duo.

BTW, Moore's best season was 79 receptions, in the 2008 season where he led the team's WRs in catches and Colston missed 5 games. He's not on the same level as Welker, so there's really no fair comparison.

 

[Deus Irae]

Were not a spread offense. we are a ..
Smash Mouth
Wing T Offense
Option
Pro Set
Vertical Offense
West Coast offense
Run and Shoot
The Spread
Spread Option
Pistol Offense
What SP created was an offense that is not just west coast. It can morph into what it needs to be to beat the defense, and he has got the players and pieces to do it. IT is 7000 plays that look like 23 , I think, similar formations. So the defense will never know how he is going to play. Any formation could be one of 300 or so different offense philosophies. So even if you watch the film, you still don't know what is coming. Its pretty smart really.
What SP created we call the "You can't cover everyone offense", and you really can't.
Watch the 49ers game. We smashed it down their throats running until PT got hurt, then spread, them WC, and etc.. Then later smash mouth again with Ivory, because Graham got taken out.

What Payton "created" was a multi-front offense that incorporates various styles and personnel packages, which is no different from what other teams have done. The difference is that the Saints have had better personnel than most.

The problem with the Saints offense is it requires a QB with a huge brain,lol. Brees doesn't even wear a wrist play band, and their are 1000's of plays. Its way more complicated than most think, and no way any rookie QB could handle it. Its overly complicated, because of SP, but built to look simplistic. Brady could do it, but Big Ben, Vick, Romo, or maybe even Rogers would be a disaster.

There's really not a problem with that offense. It's an excellent offense that has a pair of top 5 guards which allows it to handle the running game while also keeping Brees largely free of inside pressure.

We don't need a Dome thats kind of a myth. Saints put 32pts on the the #1 defense 49ers, 34pts on GB, and 36pts on the seahawks out doors. The problem with the Saints out doors is its defense. For some reason they can't get off the field, that kills time. Saints would put 34pts on the Pats in foxboro. Our defense has always been our problem. Offense can make points anywhere. Weather is a different issue, but that bothers all teams.

We see this differently, but I'm not going to go hunting down stats on it, since it's not central to my point about Welker.

 

[pherein]

I agree with you, though we're in the minority, both here and in the NFL. The league has gone crazy over WRs and the outside passing game, as the feeding frenzing in FA shows. But as Jay Shields (Jays52 on this board) has observed elsewhere:

Thats and interesting read. LOL, I think we are. I'm a RB junkie by nature, but I think the 2000 Rams, and SP really changed my view of things. Those teams proved that the RB position can be the most productive on offense, um again. They were before the 1960's. The problem the Ram's had was if Faulk got hurt, their was no replacement for his productivity. Many questioned SP for drafting Ingram, but it was the right thing to do to provide a solid backfield in case of injury.
Like you I'm shocked by the lack of interest in the RB position. Forte was the bears, and no WR could do what he does, or johnson with titans.
But both franchise would not pay them. If a WR was putting up those numbers and points they would have payed out the butt,lol.
I really think most just don't get it yet. Most teams still play the traditional RB role, and not the Flex back role.
Unlike WR's, RB's are extremely dangerous in space, because they have an instinct to get more yards, while WR's don't.
A quick side pass to a WR almost never gains yardage, but one to Thomas gets you 5 or a 1st down almost every time.
Its a RB's special ability to see space in less than a second, and make people miss that makes them a position people need to pay more for.
Moss on the Browns wouldn't do that great, but put thomas on the browns and he would still produce. Bush is a 1000 yard back in miami, but with us he's a flex back.
I with you all the way on this. Makes no sense not to put a threat back there.

Tight ends have been described as the "queen on the chessboard" by Mike Smith and called "compound multipliers" because they increase the adaptability of an offense and provide the ability to counterpunch on the fly and attack in multiple dimensions. IMHO a "flex back" (as Off the Grid calls it) - a running back with receiving and blocking skills, and with the ability to be used in different formations including being spread out wide and in the slot - provides similar functionality and value. Those kind of players can be used to attack on the ground, pick up the blitz, as a safety release valve, on screen passes, can be split out wide, can be moved into the spot. Defenses have to account for them on every play, and they provide the ability to adapt on the fly to what the defense is doing.

Couldn't say it any better. You have Gronk and Hernz to threaten a defense, even deep, but without a threatening flex back those guys will have better coverage on them, and blitzing a lower level LB is not really a problem. Lloyd's a great pickup though.

The Saints reportedly offered Pierre Thomas straight up for Darius Butler in 2010, and BB turned them down. One of the biggest mistakes in BB's tenure with the Pats, IMHO. Thomas is incredibly valuable. Sproles has taken the New Orleans offense to another level. Both of those guys are tremendous weapons.

Well don't fault him to much, lol, SP offered Thomas. I think even SP didn't fully see what Thomas was capable of. Thomas isn't fast or special in any way physically. He's built like emit smith. He's just a true RB, and has it in the head. He can fake out anyone. The Sproles, Thomas, Ingram, and Ivory combination is one of the best back fields in the NFL for a while. Think it shows a clear commitment of SP to that position.
Woodhead is very sproles like to me. Very quick to the gate.

Receivers are over-valued in the NFL right now, IMHO. Backs with the versatility of a Thomas or Sproles are seriously under-valued. I thought that someone like Doug Martin or Matt Forte could have really taken the Pats' offense to another level. But hopefully they will have enough weapons, and Josh McDaniels will figure out how to use them.

So true . This WR craziness is um crazyness. Well like you I don't believe in hope,lol. Forte I thought was a clear signing for the Pats. You have..
S. Ridley
D. Woodhead
J. Addai
That is 3 maybes, and if people are thinking , I hope, and maybe, its a sure sign that position is not filled,lol. Im thinking BB just couldn't get a deal done, but the signing of Addai shows me he wanted a flex back. I don't think Addai is effective up the middle anymore, but he's wicked good at pass blocking and screens.
LOL, I know that because PM copied a fake fade screen the next year after the SB.

Wes Welker is a tremendous weapon. No doubt about it. But he would be just as effective if not more so putting up 2/3 of his numbers in a more diversified offense where Brady isn't forcing the ball to him so much of the time.

I know that this is just armchair over-analysis by an over-zealous fan and that I don't have some people's benefit of just "observing" BB like some homunculus sitting on his shoulder. JMHO.

Welker is an enigma ,lol. I consider him the best WR, slot or not in the NFL. I say that because of his size and lack of gifts. Moss was given his freakiest ability by god, Welker had to earn his, and still does every day. Welker really can't let up. What makes welker dangerous is his brain.

Like Deus pointed out you have..
Lloyd
Welker
Gaffney
Gronk
Hernandez
This year. Stallworth isn't that good we couldn't train him. Gronk and Hernz are really the same position so never be on the field together. Lloyd's a great pick up, love him. Im still on the fence about Gaffney. I kind of think you still need more depth at that position.
Lloyd seems like a Moss move to me. I agree, I mean BB found welker when no one else did. You need more less costing replicas of him or a meachem type. I wanted us to get Ginn from SF, I know he has the ability, just needs to be trained.

 

[Joker]

Gronk and Hernz are really the same position so never be on the field together.

false...as far as past seasons go...if you are saying they won't be on the field together this season,I disagree.

 

[Sciz]

Gronk and Hernz are really the same position so never be on the field together.

false...as far as past seasons go...if you are saying they won't be on the field together this season,I disagree.

Yeah, it's pretty much the exact opposite. Both should be on the field at least 90% of the time, pending health.

 

[supafly]

So true . This WR craziness is um crazyness. Well like you I don't believe in hope,lol. Forte I thought was a clear signing for the Pats. You have..
S. Ridley
D. Woodhead
J. Addai
That is 3 maybes, and if people are thinking , I hope, and maybe, its a sure sign that position is not filled,lol. Im thinking BB just couldn't get a deal done, but the signing of Addai shows me he wanted a flex back. I don't think Addai is effective up the middle anymore, but he's wicked good at pass blocking and screens.
LOL, I know that because PM copied a fake fade screen the next year after the SB.

Don't forget about Shane Vereen too, Pherein.

He was graded by many as one of the top 3 RB's coming out of the draft last year, and was a 2nd round pick for us.

Vereen has the potential to be able to catch about 20-25 balls this year, depending upon how often they use him, etc. He also has the ability to take it to the house with his speed.

I think his TC and beginning of the season injury really set him back last year, where he was only able to get limited knowledge of the playbook and limited reps; this year I think we'll see quite a lot more of him.

For a team that usually passes about 60% of the time on average, having the following RB's/FB's compete in TC should be plenty, as I would expect either 4 or 5 RB/FB on the 53 man roster:

--Ridley
--Vereen
--Woodhead
--Addai
--Larsen
--Kettani
--Bolden
--Faulk

Love the RB talk buddy, hopefully we can have a better ypc average this year, thus making the rushing game more effective.

 

[pherein]

Pherein, if I want nonsensical and ignorant bashing of Welker, I can get plenty of that here from Patriots fans. I expect better of outsiders.

2007 - 112 catches (6 players with 30+ receptions, including Faulk at RB)

I would never put down Welker. Think you ministered that. Ive never thought Moss was better than Welker. But your other WR's Welker and Moss of old, where not the best.

Of course Brees has a favorite receiver. Colston has led the team in receiving yardage in 4 of the last 6 seasons. The two seasons he hasn't have been his injury season (only played 11 games) and last year when Graham broke the TE record and had Gronk break his new record. Other than the injury season, Colston has been the clear favorite target among the WRs, as well, catching more passes than any other WR, by a large margin.

Well not completely accurate. Receiving yardage dosnt determine favoritism right?
Is it not how many times a QB throws to a player? Not the yards the make.

2006 Reggie Bush
2006 New Orleans Saints Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com
2007 Colston
2007 New Orleans Saints Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com
2008 Lance Moore, Colston out 5 games.
2008 New Orleans Saints Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com
2009 Colston
2009 New Orleans Saints Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com
2010 Colston, but Moore out for 7 games and in second, and Bush out 10 games
2010 New Orleans Saints Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com
2011 Graham
2011 New Orleans Saints Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Colstons not Brees's favorite. 3 seasons, and its not by a large margin. If you look how the ball is spread. Difference is its hard to cover colston, so even when he's not open he's open. Brees passes to everyone, and that kills the double on colston.
If Colston is one on one, only makes sense to put it up to him.

You're now arguing against something I haven't claimed in an attempt to build up your team, since I've been harping on the Patriots WR issues since 2009. However, if you want to compare current squads, the Patriots are likely to be the first team to ever field 5 players that had 900+ yards receiving the year before.

Lloyd
Welker
Gaffney
Gronk
Hernandez

Well they won't all make 900+ yards this year. I think the pats will learn that with lots of talent at WR, not everyone gets the ball. Brady with more weapons will just become more lethal, and spread the ball.
WR = Lloyd, Branch = perfect, very impressed, good
WR = Welker = best WR, I think in the NFL
WR= Gaffney = ?. I know the hype is there, just want to see it
TE = Gronk +Hernandez = same position

In my mind that leaves 2 WR positions unknown.

WR = M. Colston, A. Arrington =Both Very good
WR =L. Moore, C. Roby = Both Very good
WR = D. Henderson, Morton = Very good, and ?
TE = J. Graham, D. Thomas = Both very good

So where is your depth if Lloyd goes out? or even Welker is hurt ?
Personally I agree with you. This is one of the best WR,TE line ups I've seen in NE, and Im pretty excited. I mean, you make a great point.
and I really love woodhead.

Height matters, regardless of what you and I may wish were true (I'm not saying it's an obstacle that can't be overcome or anything, just that it can impact a QB's vision and throws in certain situations). However, I wasn't trying to belittle Brees in any way, but was acknowledging an aspect of the game that might impact a Breez-Welker duo.

OH , I know you were not. I just don't think its as important as the other things.

BTW, Moore's best season was 79 receptions, in the 2008 season where he led the team's WRs in catches and Colston missed 5 games. He's not on the same level as Welker, so there's really no fair comparison.

If Moore was with Pats instead of Welker, I guaranty he would come close matching his stats. Moore has the exact brain and no gifts. Just sticky hands, perfect routes, and an uncanny ability to get open and never quit on a play. Moore would have worked out just fine in NE. There not on the same level because Brees has to many targets.
But Moore has been out a lot , so I think Welker is much toupher.

 

[pherein]

What Payton "created" was a multi-front offense that incorporates various styles and personnel packages, which is no different from what other teams have done. The difference is that the Saints have had better personnel than most.

True, but he made it work, consistently. I guess you could say he's great at picking personal ? and disciplining the offense? yes
Not many teams have been able to do this, and get the people to do it.

We see this differently, but I'm not going to go hunting down stats on it, since it's not central to my point about Welker.

Id love that. It can only help me also.

 

[pherein]

Gronk and Hernz are really the same position so never be on the field together.

false...as far as past seasons go...if you are saying they won't be on the field together this season,I disagree.

What games where Gronk and Hernz on the field together? maybe I missed that.