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Wes Welker says he has nine and a half million reasons to play


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you call it in depth, but there's nothing really verifiable or that can be substantiated.

just like everyone elses, its just talk....but in your case, there's simply more of it

Oh, so I guess the draft and FA never happened this season and Belichick never answered any questions at all in his pressers and the team never said it wanted a long term deal with Welker and...
 
*cough cough* jerod mayo *cough cough*

Who's to say based on what they know that wasn't something they determined they had to get done once they couldn't get Welker done.
 
Oh, so I guess the draft and FA never happened this season and Belichick never answered any questions at all in his pressers and the team never said it wanted a long term deal with Welker and...

yes....the draft happened......
yes....FA happened


but Belichik answering questions? LMFAO
 
Wes will get a multi-year deal. He'll get 3 or 4 years, and he'll make somewhere between $8 million and $10 million per season. The deal would have been easier to do if the Patriots hadn't decided to sit on their hands while several other other top receivers got big money in their contracts. Unfortunately, the Patriots tend to be penny wise and pound foolish with their top players.


Pretty much how I see it. It should end up around 40 million for 5 to anywhere even close to fair.Welker has earned a much better deal than Garcon or Holmes but probably will come in lower for the reasons Curran gave. While I can see the team playing hardball because that's how they play their money it is inexplicable to me that "fans" trash him and call for them to get rid of him.
 
Pretty much how I see it. It should end up around 40 million for 5 to anywhere even close to fair.Welker has earned a much better deal than Garcon or Holmes but probably will come in lower for the reasons Curran gave. While I can see the team playing hardball because that's how they play their money it is inexplicable to me that "fans" trash him and call for them to get rid of him.

I don't see the pats doing that.......
 
The question is, if you remove Wes Welker from the Patriots line up does it weaken the 11? It has to be a resounding yes. It simply has to be.

I agree. But that doesn't mean that the Pats will necessarily keep Welker. They traded Deion Branch in 2006 and that considerably weakened the 11 on offense, potentially costing a trip to the Super Bowl. And they traded Richard Seymour in 2009, again considerably weakening the 11 (on defense, obviously). I'm not saying anything like that will necessarily happen, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
 
I don't think that's it. They have no real clue how the recent signings will pan out. Never do until the bell rings. They know what welker does when the bell rings. Same thing he's been doing for the last 5 seasons. This is just about leverage and the Patriots have never met any they didn't want to exercise.

Youve just spelled out why Welker has leverage is he chooses to use it.

If Welker didnt sign his tender (1) He would be a distraction this pre/regular season. (2) Everyone knows that Brady has to have repoire with his receiving options - Branch, Gronk and Welker have it, Hernandez is almost there. And, if you dont have his confidence, good luck hoping for passes to come your way- see Ocho, Edelman. Welker and Gronk basically carried the passing offense last season. (3) Do the Pats really want Welker at that 9 mil cap number?

Personally, I would not play under the franchise tag if I were Welker.
 
No, it isn't. It becomes that for some. And disagreeing with tortured over analysis isn't trolling except to those who become so invested in their own over wrought analysis they can't comprehend the validity of those who debunk it.

Brady's job here is to get the ball to his playmakers. When there is a problem doing that Bill generally adjusts to the issue by replacing the problem guys who aren't contributing significantly to the effort as opposed to mandating Brady waste time forcibly targeting those who don't consistently make plays. He's actually been asked about this imaginary phenomenon (Brady stubbornly targeting certain guys at the expense of others perceived by the questioner as viable options) and debunked that theory on numerous occasions. He's not looking for formulaic, statistical balance. He's looking for ways to win games. When they don't win them all fans tend to over react and over analyze. Some demand wholesale changes on the theory that had they just approached the situation differently (ran instead of passing or passed instead of running) the result would have been success. When the truth is had they just done enough (executed and made plays that were there or fielded a team that was healthy/deep enough to consistently make plays) the liklihood is they would have succeeded regardless of the play called.

Bill has addressed what he saw as shortcomings of the 2011 team this offseason. He's added 2 fullbacks and allowed his primary back to walk and replaced him with another veteran presence who could even be an upgrade if healthy (as could either of the sophomores be provided they can get or stay on the field) because his analysis revealed we were not able to run the ball efficiently enough to win. We don't need to run it more, just run it better. He's added no nonsense, veteran competition at the outside WR position, not because he sees a need to become more vertical but because we were unable to consistently stretch the field sufficiently horizontally to counter elite defenses capable of bringing pressure without sacrificing coverage. He's added 2 more TE's to the mix because he learned the hard way that you can't run a 2 TE offense with 2 TE's on the roster because no matter how talented they may be because **** happens...

He basically plugged nagging gaps on offense via FA while turning 6 draft picks in the first three rounds into just 7 and investing all but one of them in upgrading/infusing talent on defense. He's retooled the defense and in the process rendered debating of 3-4 vs. 4-3 a fools game in persuit of the ability to field a morphing, multiple front nightmare defense for opposing QB's and OC's to grapple with for a change.

Now, feel free to disagree and maintain that he is totally missing the mark or the rest of us are misinterpreting all of this when he is actually doing what you have deduced is what he must - shifting focus onto the running game and the vertical passing game and opening up the middle of the field to his young TE's who have flourished by abandoning a matchup dictated offense that has carried the offense for much of the last 5 seasons due in large measiure to the presence of the best slot WR in the game. Even though he failed to add the feature back or prototypical, tall speed burner #1 WR.

That sounds suspiciously like "amateur analysis" to me, but personally, I don't disagree at all. I've never crtiicized what BB's done this offseason. I don't feel that BB is missing the mark at all. I never was on the bandwagon to bring in a "prototypical, tall sped burner #1 WR". I like what he's done in bringing in a bunch of new "complimentary" (sic) weapons and moving towards a "too many weapons to cover" approach, somewhat similar to what the Saints do. All I've said is that the number of play opportunities is finite, and that effectively involving those weapons will involve reducing Welker's role somewhat, which could be at odds with his salary demands based on past performance. I'm sorry if that's too radical a concept. I've never suggested that Welker couldn't play a tremendously effective and important role in the offense. But I think that his role will have to be modified somewhat if the Pats are really going to effectively use some of their other weapons.

Bill has assessed all the deficits that have bitten him in the ass over the last 3 seasons on both sides of the ball. An aging defense that was woefully short on talent and impact. A RB committee that couldn't consistently get either the tough short yards or chunks of yards. A 2 TE offense that spent more time blocking than receiving behind an athletic but undersized however cerebral OL. A WR core that couldn't get open outside the numbers or even capitalize on single coverage anymore not to mention lacked the capacity to learn to perform reliably in a read and react precision driven offense.

He didn't approach the task he saw at hand by signing the big ticket FA DE or trading for the blazing vertical threat WR or disgruntled 1600 yard back nor did he draft them. Instead he signed a bunch of complimentary pieces including a couple of fullbacks to front a younger RB by committee and adding solid when healthy RB to replace a consistent but unspectacular veteran back, and a handful of 30 something receivers including 3 (and not a true #1 among them other than occasionally by default) with system experience outside the numbers and a potential upgrade backup slot receiver if healthy, and a veteran safety.

And then on draft day he traded up incrementally twice and drafted 2 first rounders for the front 7 and a versatile db in the second and another DE in the third after trading back before reeling in 2 more developmental secondary players and ending the draft with a developmental...slot receiver.

This sounds like a guy intent on reinventing the wheel...on defense. Not overhauling the offense. He's spent sufficient time and effort on that between 2007 to 2010. All it now requires is tweeking to insure you have players with requisite capacity and sufficient depth behind them.

So far this year BB has brought in 2 FBs (Fiammetta and Larsen), 2 RBs (Addai and Bolden), a TE (Fells) and 4 WRs (Lloyd, Gaffney, Stallworth and Gonzalez). That's 9 new offensive skill players, not including late round picks or UDFAs. Meanwhile he has brought in 1 new DT/DEs (Fanene), 3 new DE/OLBs (Jones, Bequette and Scott) and 2 new LBs (Hightower and Carpenter). That's 8 new players on the defensive front 7. Yet you say that he is "re-inventin the wheel" on defense but only "tweeking" the offense. You may be correct, but I'm not sure it's quite as automatic as you believe. The offense changed significantly between 2007 and 2008 and between 2009 and 2010. It wouldn't shock me to see a significant change this year, especially with the return of McDaniels as OC. I think there will be more changes from 2011 than just "tweaking" and adding "sufficient depth". Just because BB chose to address offense mainly through FA and defense mainly through the draft doesn't necessarily mean that one is "filling gaps" and the other "overhauling".

I learn a lot just observing Bill and figuring out what he's doing and why. And less reading about what fans want him to do. I have little interest in trying to second guess him or pontificate about what he should be doing. I'm a fan, I grasp my limitations. He's a pro headed to Canton. And I accept that no team wins it all all the time and that harsh reality doesn't automatically mandate wholesale changes on the side of the ball that consistently gets you there.

This team (and not the offense) did need to be re-balanced, but it was the defense that had lost it's here over the last 5 years. Balance wins championships, and Bill is focused on elevating his defense by infusing versitile talent that can take advantage of superior coaching instead of relying on it like duct tape to just hold the fort and hope to god that Brady can keep bailing them out.

So knock yourself out reconfiguring a top tier offense. I'm gonna watch what Bill is doing on defense.

I don't have to knock myself out. BB's already done the work. All I was doing was speculating how the pieces might fit. Apparently when you do it it's called "observing", but when other people do it it's called "over analysis".
 
Yes, but Wes needs to lower his demands if he wants to get a longer term deal.

Wes is on the wrong side of 30, and his style of play causes his body to absorb a lot of wear and tear. While we all love him, BB isn't sentimental enough to overpay based on past performance; it will be based on what he can give the Pats going forward, and he's reaching his shelf life.

What information do you have? Has there been a report that described his request from the Patriots? Does it matter if he signs his franchise tender?

I heard the interview in its entirety and he was very smooth in dealing with all the questions, but gave away nothing other than that he will not miss any regular season time, meaning he'll negotiate but ultimately sign the franchise tender before week one. Cool.

I didn't pick up any signals that the Patriots have hard-balled him yet and that his deal is part of the overall process of getting people signed and understand what they have to work with.

The main question is what is his current demand/request and what does it need to drop to, to get this done?
 
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I agree. But that doesn't mean that the Pats will necessarily keep Welker. They traded Deion Branch in 2006 and that considerably weakened the 11 on offense, potentially costing a trip to the Super Bowl. And they traded Richard Seymour in 2009, again considerably weakening the 11 (on defense, obviously). I'm not saying anything like that will necessarily happen, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

Branch was traded because he was a contractual holdout, so it's nothing similar. Why you'd point to it is a mystery.
 
good for the pats

that said, welker is a dummy to sign it now
 
[A long term deal for Wes Welker] won't preclude extending the TE's although the odds are they won't retain both anyway (see Branch/Givens). They aren't going to budget $15M+ for the 3 TE component regardless of what they are paying Welker. They can field a high functioning 5-6 man WR unit for less even with Welker onboard. But absent that productive slot receiver a year from now, all the leverage would shift to the TE's... and then we could start analyzing why we don't need them.

The Pats certainly won't be able to keep Gronk and AHern past 2013 if they only budget <$15M for the TE position. No possible way.

The big difference between Gronk/AHern and Branch/Givens is that in 2006 the Pats ran a balanced complementary offense, and neither Branch nor Givens was an elite player. In 2010-2011 BB made Gronkowski and Hernandez the focal point of the offense, with historic results. Gronk is already setting the bar for TEs and is an All Pro. Hernandez is not far behind and is one of the most versatile offensive players in the game. Those are not easy pieces to replace.

Here's what "amateur analysts" Brian Waters and Wes Welker had to say about Gronk and Ahern:

"These two guys are changing the game," says veteran guard Brian Waters. ... Says Welker, "These guys are both one-of-a-kind players at their position, and we've got them. How do you defend them?"

BB has been looking for the right tight ends for years. Gronk is 23, Hernandez 22. After Brady they are perhaps the most important players on offense. The Pats would be incredibly stupid to put that kind of budget restriction on retaining those 2 guys.
 
All-pro stats Welker yearly achieves
By snagging countless tough throws with ease
So, it caused much dismay
A throw high and away
Made him look like a man fighting bees!
 
THE Grid Man hit on an important point this O could be record setting (Pts scored) in the next couple of years. Welker will have a lot of gaps to exploit horizontally as well as in the middle with Lloyd and Gaffney to go with G&H inc.

It's kind of cool to be a Pats fan in these magic years. What you just said in the first sentence has been a logical possibility for the whole last few years.

Of course, even though that wasn't the feel in 2001-2004, there was the beginning of the understanding that we own the AFC (through the far preferable earlier position of owning the NFL.)

In serious need of that one, last win this season...
 
It's kind of cool to be a Pats fan in these magic years. What you just said in the first sentence has been a logical possibility for the whole last few years.

Of course, even though that wasn't the feel in 2001-2004, there was the beginning of the understanding that we own the AFC (through the far preferable earlier position of owning the NFL.)

In serious need of that one, last win this season...



It is a bit different being a Pats fan now than in the late 60's and early 70's :D
 
All-pro stats Welker yearly achieves
By snagging countless tough throws with ease
So, it caused much dismay
A throw high and away
Made him look like a man fighting bees!

I hate to go here again, but since you posted it, I can't help but respond.

I too thought that the throw was off, or as you say 'high and away' until I forced myself to re-watch it a couple of times.

The throw really was put in a place where Welker should've caught it, and as we know, he does catch it 9/10 times.

Unfortunately, this was the 1/10 times where he did not catch it.

Go watch it again, and I think you will agree that the throw wasn't as bad as it may have first appeared.
 
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The Pats certainly won't be able to keep Gronk and AHern past 2013 if they only budget <$15M for the TE position. No possible way.

The big difference between Gronk/AHern and Branch/Givens is that in 2006 the Pats ran a balanced complementary offense, and neither Branch nor Givens was an elite player. In 2010-2011 BB made Gronkowski and Hernandez the focal point of the offense, with historic results. Gronk is already setting the bar for TEs and is an All Pro. Hernandez is not far behind and is one of the most versatile offensive players in the game. Those are not easy pieces to replace.

Here's what "amateur analysts" Brian Waters and Wes Welker had to say about Gronk and Ahern:



BB has been looking for the right tight ends for years. Gronk is 23, Hernandez 22. After Brady they are perhaps the most important players on offense. The Pats would be incredibly stupid to put that kind of budget restriction on retaining those 2 guys.

$7.5M is what the top TE's in the league make. The franchise tag for TE's this year was $5.4M. Unless they both take home town discounts in exchange for early deals, it's likely only one of them gets a top tier deal and the other may have to settle for an incremental deal or wear the tag for a while or get flipped for picks. It's also likely that we never have them both signed to top of the market deals because we have yet to have multiple players in the same unit signed to those. In fact we have yet to have more than 3-4 players signed to top of the market deals.

At the moment we have Brady, Mankins and Mayo. In 4 years we could be looking at a top tier DE and OLB and ILB and LT in addition to whatever whichever QB is under center and what #1 WR he's throwing to. Felger's wrong, the cap isn't crap. It can be manipulated but only to an extent before it starts to impact overall roster quality and depth and only to a teams budgetary limits as far as cash over cap spending is concerned. Football is a game and the Krafts like to win at it. But they are also savvy, disciplined businessmen - as is their HC and the system he brought with him that stresses value and depth and teambuilding over pure talent collection or retention as the consistent and financially sound means to that winning end.

Welker's deal will have no impact on the TE's. Unit budgets and the market and how they continue to perform and develop and their durability will determine what happens with their deals. And because extentions can be structured to be cap friendly at least initially, by the time even one of their extensions is impacting the cap Welker will likely be gone. They're lucky they got to start their careers playing with a guy who gives defenses fits. He's been and will continue to be about the farthest thing from an obstacle to their success as a teamate could be.
 
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