The 2013 Prospect Thread

[Water Boy]

My early projection on team needs for 2013:

DT
WR
OL

DB (will be a constant need to upgrade depth and talent)

 

[mayoclinic]

I look at our top two needs being DT and interior offensive line. The top OG this year, who was praised as the best prospect in forever, went 24th! We could certainly be in range of a pick like that. As far as DT goes, its a position that isn't expensive as it used to be, but still will require moving up from the 32nd pick. Lotulelei and Hankins are the top two guys at this point, but with only so many picks available, we're certain to have someone good pushed down to us.

I completely agree, though others will put WR high on the list. I see 2013 as a need to address the "core" on both offense and defense. Brian Waters will be gone after 2012 at the latest, Dan Connolly and Logan Mankins are both over 30, and Dan Koppen is on his last legs. Vince Wilfork will be 31 and played 86.2% of the snaps in 2011, Gerrard Warren is 34, and Myron Pryor is in a contract year.

OTG and I have been discussing for months the idea of building a team from the "inside out". The NFL is infatuated with the "outside" game - outside WRs, outside CBs to counter them, outside pass rushers, outside tackles to counter them. But the core is at least as important. Jays52 has talked about this a bit.

The DT class has at least 6 guys who should potentially go in the first 2 rounds: Hankins, Lotulelei, Kwame Short (more of a penetrator, and less interesting to me, though penetrating DTs are often prized over space eaters), Jesse Williams, Kwame Geathers and John Jenkins. The last 2 are still inconsistent and developing, but they have at least as much upside as Dontari Poe, and more good tape. And there are at least 3 interior OLs that I project to the top 40 picks right now: Alabama OL Barrett Jones, North Carolina OG John Cooper, and USC center Khaled Holmes. As you note, David DeCastro dropped to 24.

The team is getting old in the middle on both sides of the LOS. That's the #1 priority for 2013, IMHO. DBs and WRs can be added in the middle rounds.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's my "sleeper pick" for the Pats for 2012: Alabama DT Jesse Williams:

Australians Brad Wing, Jesse Williams excel for LSU, Alabama - Andy Staples - SI.com

Williams is 6'4" 320-330# of solid muscle. Very low body fat - the anti-Terrance Cody. He's of Polynesia descent with a warrior mentality, and is a weight room fanatic. Sub 5.00 speed. He's got Stephen Paea kind of strength on a much bigger frame with much more quickness. And he'll probably be the 3rd or 4th DT off the board after Hankins, Lotulelei and Short.

 

[mayoclinic]

Early top 32 from Pete Prisco at CBS Sports:

Top 32 for 2013: Barkley headlines a class that already looks deep - NFL - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

Prisco somehow omits Alabama OL Barrett Jones from his top 32. And here's a top 50 from his colleague, Dane Brugler:

Early Look at 2013 top-50 prospects - CBSSports

As mentioned above, these early lists are VERY subjective. It's fun to compare them and get see where prospects are "ranked" this early.

 

[ZoisKing]

I completely agree, though others will put WR high on the list. I see 2013 as a need to address the "core" on both offense and defense. Brian Waters will be gone after 2012 at the latest, Dan Connolly and Logan Mankins are both over 30, and Dan Koppen is on his last legs. Vince Wilfork will be 31 and played 86.2% of the snaps in 2011, Gerrard Warren is 34, and Myron Pryor is in a contract year. As you've noted, there are a lot of question marks on the offensive and defensive lines. I'll also add that health issues could present a problem as Mankins knee, Vollmer's back, and Cannon's cancer recovery bare notice. That percentage played of Wilfork is too high. I love his ability to do that, but he carries a lot of the load too often, and that will only break him down physically.

OTG and I have been discussing for months the idea of building a team from the "inside out". The NFL is infatuated with the "outside" game - outside WRs, outside CBs to counter them, outside pass rushers, outside tackles to counter them. But the core is at least as important. Jays52 has talked about this a bit. That was a staple of our early 2000s defensive line. Getting one of the top guys this coming draft would do wonders for our defense as a whole. It makes me wish we could have gotten our hands on Brandon Thompson this past draft.

The DT class has at least 6 guys who should potentially go in the first 2 rounds: Hankins, Lotulelei, Kwame Short (more of a penetrator, and less interesting to me, though penetrating DTs are often prized over space eaters), Jesse Williams, Kwame Geathers and John Jenkins. The last 2 are still inconsistent and developing, but they have at least as much upside as Dontari Poe, and more good tape. And there are at least 3 interior OLs that I project to the top 40 picks right now: Alabama OL Barrett Jones, North Carolina OG John Cooper, and USC center Khaled Holmes. As you note, David DeCastro dropped to 24. And when you look at the possible position players who could fill up the 1st round you have 4 QBs, 7 OTs, 4 WRs, 7 DBs, and 6 DEs (28 players at positions other than DT and OG/C!) who could occupy spots in the 1st round! Now those numbers are from a combination of player evaluations at this point and could change dramatically, but if it projects to a number of guys being available later, especially a player who fits our needs

The team is getting old in the middle on both sides of the LOS. That's the #1 priority for 2013, IMHO. DBs and WRs can be added in the middle rounds.

You and OTG have the right perspective on the draft process as a whole, but more importantly to our immediate needs come the 2013 draft.

 

[ZoisKing]

Here's my "sleeper pick" for the Pats for 2012: Alabama DT Jesse Williams:

Australians Brad Wing, Jesse Williams excel for LSU, Alabama - Andy Staples - SI.com

Williams is 6'4" 320-330# of solid muscle. Very low body fat - the anti-Terrance Cody. He's of Polynesia descent with a warrior mentality, and is a weight room fanatic. Sub 5.00 speed. He's got Stephen Paea kind of strength on a much bigger frame with much more quickness. And he'll probably be the 3rd or 4th DT off the board after Hankins, Lotulelei and Short.

Awesome looking player there.

Love the comment from the article too, that states something like: "I used to check under the bed for monsters until I realized the monster was me."

Good stuff.

 

[mayoclinic]

Early 2013 mock draft from Pete Schrager at Fox Sports:

Peter Schrager presents his 2013 NFL mock draft - NFL News | FOX Sports on MSN

Schrager's early mock is always my favorite, because he provides more detail in his comments and because he thinks outside of the box, and always comes up with a couple of guys who aren't on other people's lists. For example, last year he had Georgia DT John Jenkins in his early 2012 mock. This year he mentions a couple of interesting prospects:

20. Arizona Cardinals: Margus Hunt, DE, SMU: Hunt, a 6-foot-7 project with tremendous potential, stole the show in last year’s BBVA Compass Bowl, recording five tackles and three sacks. The Cardinals grab him after finishing with a winning record and nearly securing the second wild-card spot in the NFC with one of the top defenses in the league and a healthy Kevin Kolb.

Hunt is an intriguing prospect. He's a 6'8" 295# Estonian champion track and field athlete (discus and shot put) who plays 3-4 DE for SMU. He's raw but very long and strong. I would think he's more a fit with a taditional 2-gap 3-4 approach than where the Pats seem to be going, though his length is nice. He's also blocked a gazillion punts and field goal attempts, such as this one:.

SMU vs TCU Margus Hunt 2 veerand, PAT - YouTube

He'll turn 26 before the 2013 season starts, which will be a major issue.

27. New England Patriots: Cassius Marsh, DT/DE, UCLA: The Patriots lose in the divisional round, falling at home to the Steelers. A former top-50 high school recruit, Marsh has a breakout year in 2012, leaves early and sneaks into the first round next April.

I don't see it. Marsh is a 6'3" 290# penetrating DT. Not what I want in the middle for the Pats, and not a fit outside for us.

But again, this is all highly speculative. Last year Schrager had the Indianopolis Colts losing in the Super Bowl and mocked a defensive tackle named Marcus Forston out of Miami to them at #31. Indy finished dead last in the league, and the Pats got Forston as a UDFA. Here's his early 2012 mock from a year ago, for comparison:

Peter Schrager's 2012 first-round mock draft - NFL News | FOX Sports on MSN

Note that in this early 2012 mock Schrag had the Colts taking future UDFA Forston one pick ahead of Trent Richardson, who went to the predicted SB winners Green Bay at #32.

 

[mayoclinic]

Mocking the Draft lists some of the top RB prospects for 2013:

2013 NFL Draft Position Rankings - Running Backs - Mocking The Draft

Some interesting all-purpose backs:

- Andre Ellington, Clemson. 5'10" 190#. A versatile speester in the CJ Spiller mode, but a better inside runner - runs harder inside than his size would indicate. Reamer's been a huge fan of his for 2 years.

- Christine Michael, Texas A&M. 5'11" 215#. Shared time with Cyrus Gray in 2011. Tore his ACL in November 2011.

- Kenjon Barner, Oregon. 5'11" 195#. Shared time with LaMichael James the past 2 years, but will carry the load this year. Similar speed and elusiveness, but bigger.

- Ray Graham, Pittsburgh. 5'9" 195#. Like Michael, Graham had his 2011 season cut short by a knee injury.

All are versatile weapons with positional versatility and receiving skills ("flex backs", as OTG calls them) who would fit nicely in our offense.

 

[mayoclinic]

Another early 2013 mock, this one from Andrew Perloff at CNNSI:

2013 NFL Mock Draft has Arkansas' Tyler Wilson going No. 1 overall - Andrew Perloff - SI.com

Has has Star Lotulelei falling to the Pats at 29 - in my dreams, as long as it's a trade up from 32.

One guy to keep an eye on - Oklahoma St. DB Justin Gilbert, who goes #14 in this mock. He's under most people's radar, but is one of my favorite DB prospects in the draft. 6' 205# with great physical tools and ball skills. A playmaker.

 

[mayoclinic]

And yet one more top 50 board, this one from Athlon Sports:

Early 2013 NFL Draft Rankings | AthlonSports.com

 

[ZoisKing]

And yet one more top 50 board, this one from Athlon Sports:

Early 2013 NFL Draft Rankings | AthlonSports.com

I noticed this year the dearth of draft guides available. PFW and Lindy's were available, but Athlon and Sporting News were nowhere to be found...Was anyone else surprised by the lack of literature?

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Didn't we just get one of those in the seventh round?

Exactly what I was thinking. I don't know that we need another DB.

Xavier Rhodes is extremely physical, though. Took Michael Floyd out of the game in their bowl game.

Yes guys, thats why we need another one. We can't play play press-man on one side and zone on the other.

The steps have been taken in the right direction for a vicious penetrating 2-4-5 (or 4-2-5) with press corners playing corner and zone corners playing safety.

Blue is the new black, and nickel is the new base.

Xavier Rhodes to the binky list!

 

[manxman2601]

I agree about the needs as discussed, but here's two completely under the radar guys as potential long shots:

Brad Sorensen, QB, Southern Utah

Senior, 6'4", 225 lbs

Watch the video. It's only a highlight reel, but I love his composure in the pocket, his lack of panic when flushed out and his accuracy on the move. Prodctive too. 67% completion percentage, over 3000 yards, 21 TD's to 6 INTS.

Brad Sorensen 2011 Season Highlights - YouTube

With Hoyer likely gone, adding a third QB might be a possibility. He's currently ranked the sixth best senior and with some potential juniors likely to come out, you're probably looking at the third or fourth round.

And the next one is just because. No real need and he'll probably go too high if he comes out, but this guy impressed me so much last year. As much as I think our current guy at this position is fine, my next prospect projects to be the best in the league at his position:

Brad Wing, P, LSU
Junior

Brad Wing--LSU Punter - YouTube

 

[mayoclinic]

Tony Pauline's top 32 for 2013:

Best 2013 NFL Draft prospects include USC's Matt Barkley, Robert Woods, T.J. McDonald - Tony Pauline - SI.com

Besides Johnathan Hankins, Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short, Pauline lists North Carolina DT Sylvester Williams as his other DT in the top 32:

Williams made an immediate impression on the Tar Heels defense after transferring from junior college. He's an intense, wide-bodied defender who controls the line of scrimmage and commands double-team blocks. Williams' upside is enormous.

Yet another DT to throw in the mix. The more the beter. Williams is 6'3" 320#. I rank him below Jesse Williams, Kwame Geathers and John Jenkins (none of whom made Pauline's list), but it's early and things could change.

Barrett Jones also doesn't make Pauline's top 32. Neither do Tennessee QB Tyler Bray, Virginia Tech QB Logan Logan Thomas, Michigan OT Taylor Lewan (more on him later), Texas A&M OT Luke Joeckel, USC OC Khaled Holmes, Michigan St. DE William Gholston, Texas DE Jackson Jefcoat, LSU DB Tyrann Mathieu, FLorida St. DB Xavier Rhodes or Oklahoma St. DB Justin Gilbert. Add in the 3 DTs listed above and you have a pretty decent starting point for a 2013 top 45 list.

 

[patsfaninpa]

My top pick might be Jake Matthews - T - Texas A&M. Bruce's kid. He's 6'5" 295lb and I'm sure growing. Don't all of the Matthews become pro-bowlers and hall of famers? Talk about top of the gene pool. Agree about Lewan Mayo. Looks like a stud. A little like our Nate Solder.

 

[mayoclinic]

My top pick might be Jake Matthews - T - Texas A&M. Bruce's kid. He's 6'5" 295lb and I'm sure growing. Don't all of the Matthews become pro-bowlers and hall of famers? Talk about top of the gene pool. Agree about Lewan Mayo. Looks like a stud. A little like our Nate Solder.

Yup. Here's the ESPN hype machine comparing Lewan to a young Jake Long:

Analyst says Michigan's Taylor Lewan will be elite NFL prospect in 2013, Denard Robinson won't be a QB

Lewan's somewhere between 6'7"-6'8" and around 300-310#.

What do you think of Jake Matthews' teammate, junior OT Luke Joeckel?

All of these guys could push interior linemen like Barrett Jones, Khaled Holmes and Jonathan Cooper down to the 20's.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Yup. Here's the ESPN hype machine comparing Lewan to a young Jake Long:

Analyst says Michigan's Taylor Lewan will be elite NFL prospect in 2013, Denard Robinson won't be a QB

Lewan's somewhere between 6'7"-6'8" and around 300-310#.

What do you think of Jake Matthews' teammate, junior OT Luke Joeckel?

All of these guys could push interior linemen like Barrett Jones, Khaled Holmes and Jonathan Cooper down to the 20's.

I remember reading that they were both going to be 1st round picks towards the end of their freshman season. Joeckel might be better. He was listed at 6'^"304lb. A tad bigger than Jake. But, if it's close. I'm going with a Matthews. Lewan isn't as strong as Jake Long yet. That's why I compared him to Solder not Long. Some people have DJ Fluker a Top 5 pick. I don't think he's the prospect that either Aggie is or Lewan. They are all juniors. So, not a sure thing they will declare.

 

[mayoclinic]

I remember reading that they were both going to be 1st round picks towards the end of their freshman season. Joeckel might be better. He was listed at 6'^"304lb. A tad bigger than Jake. But, if it's close. I'm going with a Matthews. Lewan isn't as strong as Jake Long yet. That's why I compared him to Solder not Long. Some people have DJ Fluker a Top 5 pick. I don't think he's the prospect that either Aggie is or Lewan. They are all juniors. So, not a sure thing they will declare.

I agree with you on all points:

- Lewan is not as freakishly athletic as Nate Solder, but right now he's closer to Solder than Jake Long. BTW, I liked Nate Solder better than any OT in the 2012 draft (including Matt Kalil) - GREAT value at #17 in 2011.
- DJ Fluker is a road grading RT. He's an overhyped product of the Alabama machine. I'm also ambivalent about Miami behomth Seantrel Henderson. From what I've seen, I like Lewan and the 2 Aggies the best of the potential 2013 OTs.

 

[mayoclinic]

It's on the Bleacher Report, and the rankings are highly subjective, but here's an early "top 70" list for 2013 along with top 10 seniors/juniors at each position:

2013 NFL Draft Preview: Ranking College Football's Must-Watch Pro Prospects | Bleacher Report

The main value of this is its depth, as it lists hundreds of potential prospects by position.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Barrett Jones also doesn't make Pauline's top 32.

This is a mistake by Pauline. This kid is a really good player. He can play OG or OT and he dominates the LOS while also being decent in pas protection. He is a knee bender who can sink his hips, decent with his hands, although I wish he were more violent with his hands.

Upshaw said that Jones is the best player he has played against in college football.