Content Post Bill Belichick's draft strategy.

[SHOWTIME15]

Hey Bro you forgot a couple of very important players ... Gronk and Hernandez were pretty damn good from the 2010 draft. Remember they also gave up three draft picks in the signing of Welker and Moss. When you add that to theor draft haul, its pretty impressive.

Don't forget Ted Larsen from the 2010 draft. We couldn't keep him on the 53 man roster and he got picked off waivers at the final cutdown. He has started at OG for Tamp Bay for two years.

Also add the fact that BB has kept an Un-Drafted Free Agent on the final cutdown roster every year he has been here.

The pats are good at drafting on offense, not so much o. Defense. Part of the problem is the pats pick at the bottom of the first round every year.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

The pats are good at drafting on offense, not so much o. Defense. Part of the problem is the pats pick at the bottom of the first round every year.

It is not just the 1st round, they pick at or near the bottom of every round, every year. People who criticize BB's drafting simply can't grasp this.

 

[Triumph]

It is not just the 1st round, they pick at or near the bottom of every round, every year. People who criticize BB's drafting simply can't grasp this.

Eric Weddle was picked after Brandon Meriwether.

Its a poor excuse to use the Pats draft slot when there are better players still on the draft board after they pick.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

Eric Weddle was picked after Brandon Meriwether.

Its a poor excuse to use the Pats draft slot when there are better players still on the draft board after they pick.

No need to respond to me. I'll feed you no more.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Eric Weddle was picked after Brandon Meriwether.

Its a poor excuse to use the Pats draft slot when there are better players still on the draft board after they pick.

Your argument is as simple as it gets, if the Patriots would just do what you want instead of what they think is right then they would win the Super Bowl.


Wasn't there a poster here who made that claim in every thread? Fans who think they actually know more than this front office are morons.

 

[Rob0729]

Your argument is as simple as it gets, if the Patriots would just do what you want instead of what they think is right then they would win the Super Bowl.


Wasn't there a poster here who made that claim in every thread? Fans who think they actually know more than this front office are morons.

Gotta love his argument. The Pats have to abandon their strategy of trading down and use their draft picks in the first round, but why even bother using their first round picks because they end up taking players who are worse than players they could have gotten if they traded down.

Eric Weddle was taken in the second round. So the Pats could have traded down and got Weddle and possibly a first round pick in the 2008 draft for doing so instead of staying where they were and drafted Meriweather. But that would be bad draft strategy.

This guy is all over the place. The Pats are screwed no matter what they do.

Triumph's posts = Pure comedy gold.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Gotta love his argument. The Pats have to abandon their strategy of trading down and use their draft picks in the first round, but why even bother using their first round picks because they end up taking players who are worse than players they could have gotten if they traded down.

Eric Weddle was taken in the second round. So the Pats could have traded down and got Weddle and possibly a first round pick in the 2008 draft for doing so instead of staying where they were and drafted Meriweather. But that would be bad draft strategy.

This guy is all over the place. The Pats are screwed no matter what they do.

Triumph's posts = Pure comedy gold.

When you boil it down it is just the typical Madden/fantasy GM arrogance where fans feel they actually know much more than the coach and front office and insist that the team doesn't know what it is doing and they would do a much better job. I suppose you could make some headway with that if you had been a Lions fan for the past 30 years but trying to do so with the best franchise in football only makes a person look a like a complete idiot, and that is what some here do and look like on a regular basis.


I whiff on the draft pretty much every year, but it's not because they are doing the wrong things but because we have no real knowledge of how they grade and evaluate players so my evaluations, which are based off of the crumbs "draft experts" put out there, are radically different than the actual team draft board, so while I am bummed they passed on my binky(s) pretty much every draft they are staying true to their ratings and approach and somehow have managed to completely rebuild a team from a dynasty to another championship caliber team poised for years of great success, without missing a beat. Who does that? Seriously? The only team I can think of in NFL history that has managed that feat is the 49ers going from Montana to Young, and even they didn't completely rebuild the team around the QB they just managed to go from one HOF QB to another.


I understand fan frustration but actually thinking they know better is as dumb as it gets.

 

[Rob0729]

When you boil it down it is just the typical Madden/fantasy GM arrogance where fans feel they actually know much more than the coach and front office and insist that the team doesn't know what it is doing and they would do a much better job. I suppose you could make some headway with that if you had been a Lions fan for the past 30 years but trying to do so with the best franchise in football only makes a person look a like a complete idiot, and that is what some here do and look like on a regular basis.


I whiff on the draft pretty much every year, but it's not because they are doing the wrong things but because we have no real knowledge of how they grade and evaluate players so my evaluations, which are based off of the crumbs "draft experts" put out there, are radically different than the actual team draft board, so while I am bummed they passed on my binky(s) pretty much every draft they are staying true to their ratings and approach and somehow have managed to completely rebuild a team from a dynasty to another championship caliber team poised for years of great success, without missing a beat. Who does that? Seriously? The only team I can think of in NFL history that has managed that feat is the 49ers going from Montana to Young, and even they didn't completely rebuild the team around the QB they just managed to go from one HOF QB to another.


I understand fan frustration but actually thinking they know better is as dumb as it gets.

What the complainers don't get is that the draft is a crap shoot from the first overall pick to Mr. Irrelevant. You look at the top ten picks every year and about half are busts or at least major disapointments. Yes, trading down increases the odds of a pick busting out, but adding more picks increases your odds of getting players who can make an impact. If you gamble on a high pick, you gotta be right. If you gamble on bunch of second rounders, you do have a little more flexibilty to be wrong.

As for these armchair GMs, you only hear when they were high on someone who the Pats' pass on who pan out. You never hear about the ones they whiffed on. I remember a lot of people blasting Belichick for drafting McCourty over Jerry Hughes, but two years later no one wants to admit that they felt that way or own up that they were wrong there.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Exactly ! And that friggen #2 pick always winds up being Darius Butler, or Ron Brace, or Terrance Wheatley or Bethel Johnson, as we pass up stud players every year. Quantity doesn't ALWAYS beat quality.

I know I know, if you don't like it go follow another team, or the Pats have gone 27-5 the last 2 years or gone to 5 SB's in 10 years, blah blah blah. But Belichick's drafting has been questionable at best the last 7 years. Only Mayo, Mankins, Solder, Mccourty, Vollmer, Gronkowski & Hernandez have been good to great players picked in the last 7 drafts. All the rest have been busts.

Please tell me this is a complete joke. I don't care about how many busts we've had, as that is part of the draft.

In the second round, just in the last three years, we've gotten Vollmer, Gronkowski, Spikes, Chung, and Dowling (jury still out), while Hernandez was the direct result of a trade down. Plus we have Vereen, who may end up being a good RB. Guys like Brace and Cunningham are probably busts, but they may end up being serviceable players.

Show me a team in the last three years whose TOTAL draft pick value, including all of their picks, matches our second-round picks + Hernandez.

We finish with a top-5 record every year, so the cards should be mightily stacked against us with our lower picks, yet we continue to develop young all-pros, including an incredible young nucleus on offense that includes TWO great tackles and the best TE duo in NFL history. Granted the defense needs work, but we have some strong young players there, too, and I don't think anyone realizes how devastating our injuries to Bodden (never recovered) and Dowling were last year.

 

[Triumph]

Now I see the problem. You are one of those guys that think 5 players are a full team. There were many more 2nd, 3rd , 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th round picks than 1sts on the Patriots SB winners and everyone else for that matter.
A football team is 53 players. When you can't get beyond the most famous 5 you don't understand the game.

Back to the issue.

Why trade down to lower rounds where there have been more whiffs on draftees?

In every case where a 1st was traded down into the 2nd, another 1st the following year was also received.
You want to trash the players drafted in the second round, well at least the ones you pick and choose selectively, but fail to recoginze these are extra picks gained by moving the 1st back 1 year (and usually higher).
Mayo was the result of this. And he is far better than anyone we would have picked the year before. Wilfork was also the result of trading down and getting a future first.

Your 2nd pick analogy is full of holes, so now youre moving up the 1st round.

Back to the 2nd round issue of trading down. Thus far, 3 studs out of 15 picks have been taken from the 2nd round as a whole: Gronk, Light and Branch. The Pats will/have offer them a 2nd contract. Branch would have received a 2nd contract subsequent to his rookie contract if he hadnt refused to attend TC.

4 more above average players have also been acquired: Vollmer, Chung, Wilson and Spikes. These players are not Studs. With the exception of Wilson, they might turn out to be though. We will see

8 definite Busts have also been taken:Bethel, Jackson, Brace, Butler, Wheatley, Hill, Cunningham, Klemm.

To summarize:

The Pats have a 53% chance of choosing a Bust in the 2nd round. A 26% chance of getting a decent player who might be a stud someday. And, a 20% chance of hitting on a franchise player.

If you want to include Vollmer, Chung, Wilson and Spikes as Studs as Im sure you will, that still less than a 50% success rate in that round. Please dont go into how Butler and Chad Jackson were not Busts? OK?

I know it sounds like a great way to trash BB to say he trades 1st round picks for late round picks. Sadly, you either don't know the facts, or do and decide to pretend you don't.
In either case, I go back to my original comment. You should find a different sport to discuss. You just aren't knowledgable about this one.

Im seeking knowledge from the all knowing like you Andy.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Let's get some data on BB and drafting

YEAR    1st Pk   Order   Diff   Comment
2011     17        28        11     
2010     27        24       - 3     
2009     34        26       - 8     
2008     10        31        21     Extra Pick, Loss of Pick
2007     24        28         4     
2006     21        21         0     
2005     32        32         0     
2004     21        32        11     Extra Pick (also had 32)
2003     13        19         6     
2002     21        32        11     
2001      6         6         0

1st Pick is where we made the first selection. Thus, 2004 we also had the 32nd pick.
The Order column is where we should have picked based on win %.

2009 we didn't make a first round pick, but I included the 2nd pick of the 2nd round.

I tried to evaludate the draft order based on the information available. While I believe it is accurate, I accept that I may have errors.

so for the 11 years that BB has had a say in his draftg (didn't include 2000 on purpose as he was the HC, but didn't determine the outcome of the previous year).

We have 11 years of data, but feel free to draw your own conclusions.

• Over that time we'v had 12 first round picks.
• 1 year we lost a first round pick (still had one from SF)
• 3 years we stood pat on our draft order
• 2 years where the first was below pick order
• 6 years where we picked above draft order

On average we've gained almost 5 spots better on our draft order with and average pick being around 20 where we should have been around 25. You may complain about the talent BB has, but he's only ever had 2 top 10 picks when he should have had only 1. You might complain about those picks, but how many guys are being talked about in great detail when they may be the 20th projected pick in the draft? He's never sold the farm to get that 1 player because he understands the economics of the bad choice.

I wish the Order of the draft was easier to find as I'd like to compare this to other teams, but I had to deduct based off trade information and it'd take too much time.

 

[Ring 6]

Back to the issue.

Why trade down to lower rounds where there have been more whiffs on draftees?

Because you get something extra for doing it,.

Your 2nd pick analogy is full of holes, so now youre moving up the 1st round.

Of course you think it is full of holes, because it is the reality that sqaushes your misinformed opinion.
Here is the traqde down that resulted in Mayo.
The Patriots traded a 2007 1st for a 4th and a 2008 1st.
They traded the 4th for Randy Moss and used the 1st for Jerod Mayo.
What is wrong with that trade down?

Back to the 2nd round issue of trading down. Thus far, 3 studs out of 15 picks have been taken from the 2nd round as a whole: Gronk, Light and Branch. The Pats will/have offer them a 2nd contract. Branch would have received a 2nd contract subsequent to his rookie contract if he hadnt refused to attend TC.

There is no issue, you are making it up.
Just list all of the times we traded out of the first into the second and list everything we recieved. You will educate yourself.

4 more above average players have also been acquired: Vollmer, Chung, Wilson and Spikes. These players are not Studs. With the exception of Wilson, they might turn out to be though. We will see

8 definite Busts have also been taken:Bethel, Jackson, Brace, Butler, Wheatley, Hill, Cunningham, Klemm.

To summarize:

The Pats have a 53% chance of choosing a Bust in the 2nd round. A 26% chance of getting a decent player who might be a stud someday. And, a 20% chance of hitting on a franchise player.

If you want to include Vollmer, Chung, Wilson and Spikes as Studs as Im sure you will, that still less than a 50% success rate in that round. Please dont go into how Butler and Chad Jackson were not Busts? OK?



Im seeking knowledge from the all knowing like you Andy.

What is your point?
Which 2nds did we trade a first for, and what else did we get?
You are using the strawman argument that we trade down and get nothing extra, and then pointing out the nature of the draft, that some draft choices don't work out. There is no news here.

 

[Rob0729]

Here is an ESPN article on the Pats' draft strategy and it specifically talks about trading in the first round (both up and down). The article is pretty balanced:

Since 2000, the Patriots have traded away 10 first-round picks. In addition to Peterson, the players taken with those picks were Patrick Ramsey, Michael Haynes, Kyle Boller, Joe Staley, Sedrick Ellis, Michael Oher, Matthews, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant. Only three of those 10 players made a Pro Bowl (Peterson, Staley and Matthews).

However, compare that list with the list of players New England has selected with first-round picks out of their natural position: Daniel Graham, Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Brandon Meriweather, Jerod Mayo and Devin McCourty. Four of the six have been Pro Bowlers, and Warren was named to the 2007 All-NFL first team. All six were at least meaningful contributors in New England.

The Mayo case in particular illustrates another side of this strategy. The Patriots traded the seventh overall selection to New Orleans, which drafted defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis. Ellis has been a durable piece of the Saints' defensive line, but the Patriots selected future defensive signal-caller Mayo with the 10th pick. Mayo emerged as the 2008 Defensive Rookie of the Year and led the league with 175 tackles in 2010.

Ellis received a five-year, $49 million contract with $19.5 million in guaranteed money from the Saints. Mayo signed his deal for $18.9 million and $13.8 million guaranteed, saving the Patriots $30 million over five years in addition to increased production.

NFL draft 2012: Analyzing New England's draft strategy - ESPN

 

[Mikeyb]

The Pats need a backer’ more able
to pass rush and run stop like Vrabel
we'll find some appealing
But when Bill’s done dealing
we’ll wind up with another Shawn Crable!

 

[BrickPat]

The Pats are known for typically not doing the flashy thing with the draft. Every "the Pats could've drafted [insert name] had they used [insert pick number]" critique applies to all teams.

The problem is that we only hear about the great picks made by other teams but people conveniently or naively forget the dozens of their draft whiffs.

The Pats drafting philsophy while not very entertaining is nevertheless effective.

 

[Triumph]

Because you get something extra for doing it,.




Of course you think it is full of holes, because it is the reality that sqaushes your misinformed opinion.
Here is the traqde down that resulted in Mayo.
The Patriots traded a 2007 1st for a 4th and a 2008 1st.
They traded the 4th for Randy Moss and used the 1st for Jerod Mayo.
What is wrong with that trade down?

There is no issue with picking the 1st round. Ive already made that clear.

With the exception of Meriwether and Maroney, the Pats have been almost perfect.

There is no issue, you are making it up.
Just list all of the times we traded out of the first into the second and list everything we recieved. You will educate yourself.

I didnt make anything up. The 2nd round of the NFL draft has not been kind to BB. Gronk has been the best pick yet in 11 drafts. If the Pats trade out of the 1st and get players like him, thats one thing.

What is your point?
Which 2nds did we trade a first for, and what else did we get?
You are using the strawman argument that we trade down and get nothing extra, and then pointing out the nature of the draft, that some draft choices don't work out. There is no news here.

Choices in the 1st round almost always work out.

The Pats need at least 2 stud defensive players from this draft. Not more bench warmers and guys who are going to breakout next year.

 

[Ring 6]

There is no issue with picking the 1st round. Ive already made that clear.

With the exception of Meriwether and Maroney, the Pats have been almost perfect.

You are criticizing trading down from the first round. When that has been done, we have always gotten a 1 back along with more.

I didnt make anything up. The 2nd round of the NFL draft has not been kind to BB. Gronk has been the best pick yet in 11 drafts. If the Pats trade out of the 1st and get players like him, thats one thing.

Your entire argument is made up, because it revolves around trades that have never been made.

Choices in the 1st round almost always work out.

Then you agree with me, since when we trade 1st round picks we trade them for 1st roiund picks plus other ones.

The Pats need at least 2 stud defensive players from this draft. Not more bench warmers and guys who are going to breakout next year.

And if they can trade a 1st round pick for another 1st round pick plus more picks, they would be smart to do so.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

The arm chair GM's are all geniuses with their 20-20 hindsight, they could have picked (insert name) but instead picked (insert name). In order to rate BB's drafts you'd have to look back and see what they traded for and what they got, or you could just go by the end results, 5 SB's, 3 wins, 1 AFC championship. I think Ill stick with results.

 

[Deus Irae]

The arm chair GM's are all geniuses with their 20-20 hindsight, they could have picked (insert name) but instead picked (insert name). In order to rate BB's drafts you'd have to look back and see what they traded for and what they got, or you could just go by the end results, 5 SB's, 3 wins, 1 AFC championship. I think Ill stick with results.

The "arm chair GMs" were right for years, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Instead of just blindly sticking your head in the sand and singing "BB is great, BB is God", perhaps you could find a middle ground...

 

[Triumph]

You are criticizing trading down from the first round. When that has been done, we have always gotten a 1 back along with more.

YES!

Thats my gripe. Its the perpetual 1st round pick thats never gets used.

Your entire argument is made up, because it revolves around trades that have never been made.

Trades into the 2nd have been made.

You admitted so yourself.

Then you agree with me, since when we trade 1st round picks we trade them for 1st roiund picks plus other ones.

No, I dont agree with not taking the best players when you have a HOF QB on the roster with an aging WR corp and a swiss cheese pass defense.

The defense would look much worse if not for Brady. He hides a lot of warts.

And if they can trade a 1st round pick for another 1st round pick plus more picks, they would be smart to do so.

When the picks they traded for suck, then no.