Content Post Bill Belichick's draft strategy.

[rainmaker]

Give BB top 10 picks each year and he'd assemble an pro-bowl team. Of course, we wouldn't have all those Lombardi's, AFC Championships and winning seasons. I think I'll take the success and maximize our draft returns with trading down so we are in position to take advantage of value when it presents itself. When you start with a pick in 30's each year, you aren't going to have the opportunity to draft the blue chip prospects that the crappy teams do.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Give BB top 10 picks each year and he'd assemble an pro-bowl team. Of course, we wouldn't have all those Lombardi's, AFC Championships and winning seasons. I think I'll take the success and maximize our draft returns with trading down so we are in position to take advantage of value when it presents itself. When you start with a pick in 30's each year, you aren't going to have the opportunity to draft the blue chip prospects that the crappy teams do.

Agree completely, Belichick is making the most of the hand he has been dealt by their own success.

 

[Off The Grid]

I will spell this out: No super bowl championships in 11 seasons.

Sorry, but I'm still laughing at the rich irony of your condescending arrogance, paradoxically contrasted with your pathetic and infantile inability to count to 3!!

"I will spell this out."

 

[QuantumMechanic]

With respect to the trading aspect of the BB strategy, read the chapter on the NFL draft in Scorecasting.

Referring to research by Richard Thaler and others, they point out that teams significantly overvalue 1st round picks relative to lower picks. In other words, teams consistently give up too much when trading for a first round pick. I doubt it's a coincidence that BB likes to trade away 1st round picks.

Also, as has been mentioned in other threads by other people, I don't really care about the percentage hit rate of BB's picks. I care about the absolute number of turns-out-to-be-quality-players drafted. If you want to get N good people, then the more spins of the roulette wheel you have, the better chance of achieving that.

This isn't to say BB is perfect. Even ignoring percentage hits and looking only at absolute numbers there have been some problems -- especially at WR. But I believe the idea of moving down a round and having more picks makes a lot of sense in general.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

With respect to the trading aspect of the BB strategy, read the chapter on the NFL draft in Scorecasting.

Referring to research by Richard Thaler and others, they point out that teams significantly overvalue 1st round picks relative to lower picks. In other words, teams consistently give up too much when trading for a first round pick. I doubt it's a coincidence that BB likes to trade away 1st round picks.

Also, as has been mentioned in other threads by other people, I don't really care about the percentage hit rate of BB's picks. I care about the absolute number of turns-out-to-be-quality-players drafted. If you want to get N good people, then the more spins of the roulette wheel you have, the better chance of achieving that.

This isn't to say BB is perfect. Even ignoring percentage hits and looking only at absolute numbers there have been some problems -- especially at WR. But I believe the idea of moving down a round and having more picks makes a lot of sense in general.

Good post. On thing I would add is that although BB does often trade 1st round picks, he usually trades them for first round picks for the next year. Once you get out of the first round, the draft truly is a crapshoot.

 

[BTTA]

Lee Evans not having both feet down was pure luck. Branch would have had both down.

Harbaugh not using his last TO was luck. The Ravens kicker missing was luck.

Its about Super Bowls. Brady and BB are going to the HOF because theyve won them.

Yes, exactly. Every Pats SB victory and loss has been dependent on luck.

The HOF is irrelevant to us as fans, because have complete free will to choose what we derive pleasure from. So I choose to have the 2011 season be something I'm happy about. You can argue all day that I should be different, which for some reason is important to you, but that just makes you as relevant as the HOF.

 

[BTTA]

The team has won 3 championships in 11 years (10 years if you exclude '08) with Brady as the starter; yet many act as if that 27% (or 30%) rate should be higher; why?

From the current cap/FA era Peyton Manning is 1/13 (1/14 if you include '11), or 8%; Brett Favre was 2/19 (11%); John Elway was 2/16 (13%); Kurt Warner was 1/8 (13%), plus 4 years starting less than half his team's games; Drew Brees is 1/10 (10%). The only ones with comparable success ratios are Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger, both of whom are 2/8 (25%), and Aaron Rodgers, who is also at 25% (1/4).

The great Joe Montana was 4/15, 27%. NFL legend Johnny Unitas was 2/14 (14%), plus four seasons he wasn't the starter. The only quarterbacks with appreciably better success rates were Bart Starr with one of the greatest dynasties in all of sports (5/14, 36%) and Otto Graham (3/10, 30%). Steve Young was 1/9 (11%); Troy Aikman 3/12 (25%); Dan Marino 0/17 (0%); Terry Bradshaw 4/14 (28%).

This is good stuff, thanks. The final point is that as we stand today, only Starr is better than Brady's 30% as a starter.

 

[Triumph]

Yes, exactly. Every Pats SB victory and loss has been dependent on luck.

The HOF is irrelevant to us as fans, because have complete free will to choose what we derive pleasure from. So I choose to have the 2011 season be something I'm happy about. You can argue all day that I should be different, which for some reason is important to you, but that just makes you as relevant as the HOF.

No, the NE SB victories were because NE had better players.

 

[Triumph]

Wrong again, the Patriots won the AFC Championship, and as such were the best team in the AFC. They lost a close heartbreaking Super Bowl but were still one of the two best teams in football and are Champions, regardless of your denial.

The Patriots have won 3 Super Bowls and 5 AFC Championships in 11 years, name any team that has done better during this era.

If getting to the SB and losing is what its all about then Hoorah!

The Pats havent won a SB in 7 seasons. If youre happy about that good for you.

 

[Triumph]

You apparently don't know what an actual bust is. Or which QB dissed Hobbs. Or much of anything else apparently.

Meriweather wasn't a bust. He simply wasn't a fit here. He may become a bust overall as a result, but that's not Bill's problem. Chung doesn't suck. Spikes is a starter. Kaczur started for some time. Hobbs was a decent CB and an excellent returner. Sanders was a JAG but teams can't function without them. Cassel was tremendous value as a backup here for 4 years and then flipped for a #2. Brace may well be a lost cause. Butler had his moments as a rookie, as even did the infamous CJ.

Find me a team that is still starting every draft pick they made in the last several seasons. I won't hold my breath...

Meriweather wasn a fit in Chicago either. If Meriweather was so good then why isnt he still here? Dont the Pats need good DBs?

Just how good is Chung? NE had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last season and he played a huge part. Chung has never lived up to pre draft hype as some fierce hitter.

All the players you mentioned are JAGs or Busts. Theres not even 1 standout player among them.

 

[Rob0729]

The team has won 3 championships in 11 years (10 years if you exclude '08) with Brady as the starter; yet many act as if that 27% (or 30%) rate should be higher; why?

From the current cap/FA era Peyton Manning is 1/13 (1/14 if you include '11), or 8%; Brett Favre was 2/19 (11%); John Elway was 2/16 (13%); Kurt Warner was 1/8 (13%), plus 4 years starting less than half his team's games; Drew Brees is 1/10 (10%). The only ones with comparable success ratios are Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger, both of whom are 2/8 (25%), and Aaron Rodgers, who is also at 25% (1/4).

If you look further back in NFL history even the legends that were on teams that did not have to deal with the cap and free agency had relatively low 'success' rates, as success is being defined by some as nothing short of a league championship. The great Joe Montana was 4/15, 27%. NFL legend Johnny Unitas was 2/14 (14%), plus four seasons he wasn't the starter. The only quarterbacks with appreciably better success rates were Bart Starr with one of the greatest dynasties in all of sports (5/14, 36%) and Otto Graham (3/10, 30%). Steve Young was 1/9 (11%); Troy Aikman 3/12 (25%); Dan Marino 0/17 (0%); Terry Bradshaw 4/14 (28%).

That's the problem with the complainers. They unrealistic expectations just because the Pats' have Brady. Several teams had QBs on par with Brady with lesser success. These people think just because the Pats have Brady that the Pats should be winning the Super Bowl every year. It doesn't work like that.

The thing is if the Pats did what these complainers wanted, they might win one or two more Super Bowls (although that is far from a given), but then the Pats would become a middle of the pack team in a few years and they will complaining that the Pats sacrificed being a Super Bowl contender to win it all in one or two seasons.

 

[Rob0729]

I have to think though that the same new rules that eliminated the insane contracts at the top of the first round that now limit deals to 4 years with an option for a 5th guaranteed at franchise tag rates that have to be locked in via option at the end of the 3rd season will continue to give him pause... Not a great leverage situation for teams who don't want to become contractually top heavy.

Yes, that is the down side of the new CBA, but I think the risk of paying a player that has never played a down in the NFL one of the best contracts at his position is more of a deturent to trade up than only being able to lock that player up for four years.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

The problem with the Pats defense is that they have lacked a true impact player for years now. In the immortal words of Rick Pitino, "Rodney Harrison/Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, or Richard Seymour are not walking through that door".

BB has tried to fill holes, he has made some serious swings and misses at DB. I think he made a major mistake not keeping Branch a few years ago (and of course in drafting Merriweather with the Branch pick).

But in the end, it all comes down to when its crunch time, the Pats do not have a guy on defense that will make a play. How many times did Rodney, Bruschi et al come up with the big play when the Pats needed it? That is what has been lacking, IF the defense had come up with 3 stops, the Pats would have 3 more titles.

So now the job is to find a playmaker on defense. Move up if you have to, NOBODY drafted after the 4th round is making the team, so do some bundling and get a playmaker. Of course, this will almost guarentee another trade back, pass of player X for an additional 3rd round pick that they trade for a future second round pick, that turns out to be Butler, Brace or any of the other busts that litter the Pats recent draft boards.

 

[signbabybrady]

The problem with the Pats defense is that they have lacked a true impact player for years now. In the immortal words of Rick Pitino, "Rodney Harrison/Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, or Richard Seymour are not walking through that door".

BB has tried to fill holes, he has made some serious swings and misses at DB. I think he made a major mistake not keeping Branch a few years ago (and of course in drafting Merriweather with the Branch pick).

But in the end, it all comes down to when its crunch time, the Pats do not have a guy on defense that will make a play. How many times did Rodney, Bruschi et al come up with the big play when the Pats needed it? That is what has been lacking, IF the defense had come up with 3 stops, the Pats would have 3 more titles.

So now the job is to find a playmaker on defense. Move up if you have to, NOBODY drafted after the 4th round is making the team, so do some bundling and get a playmaker. Of course, this will almost guarentee another trade back, pass of player X for an additional 3rd round pick that they trade for a future second round pick, that turns out to be Butler, Brace or any of the other busts that litter the Pats recent draft boards.

How many players currently on the roster were drafted after the 4th rd or were UDFAs? I can think of 6 or 7 off the top of my head and there is usually at least one who makes it.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

How many players currently on the roster were drafted after the 4th rd or were UDFAs? I can think of 6 or 7 off the top of my head and there is usually at least one who makes it.

too many, that is the problem. Look 7th rounder Deaderick has outplayed 2nd rounder Brace, no question about that. BUT neither one of them is a playmaker!

 

[signbabybrady]

too many, that is the problem. Look 7th rounder Deaderick has outplayed 2nd rounder Brace, no question about that. BUT neither one of them is a playmaker!

And what about Brady and Slater two team captains, we have too many of them too?

 

[patfanken]

The problem with the Pats defense is that they have lacked a true impact player for years now. In the immortal words of Rick Pitino, "Rodney Harrison/Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, or Richard Seymour are not walking through that door".

.

Your problem, Ted is that you are all caught up into names and reputations. You are one of those "immediate gratification" guys. You want it, and you want it NOW. You fail to understand that time plays a factor. Just look at the people your mentioned in you OWN post. Only Seymour a high first round pick had an immediate impact. Vrabel didn't have more than 3 sacks until his SIXTH year in the league. It took Bruschi 7 years to find his true role on this team Before that he was just a situational player bouncing from DE to OLB, before becoming an ILB in 2001. Rodney was viewed as a borderline psychopath for many years before he became the play making wise old sage AFTER he came here.

So its true Vrabel, Bruschi, and Harrison AREN'T walking through that door, but that's because they might already be here and you haven't given them a chance to develop, because you want it, and you want it NOW. WAAAAHHHHHH!!!!!!!

Well go suck on a rattle, Ted. Guys like you will NEVER be satisfied.

 

[Deus Irae]

The problem with the Pats defense is that they have lacked a true impact player for years now. In the immortal words of Rick Pitino, "Rodney Harrison/Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, or Richard Seymour are not walking through that door".

BB has tried to fill holes, he has made some serious swings and misses at DB. I think he made a major mistake not keeping Branch a few years ago (and of course in drafting Merriweather with the Branch pick).

But in the end, it all comes down to when its crunch time, the Pats do not have a guy on defense that will make a play. How many times did Rodney, Bruschi et al come up with the big play when the Pats needed it? That is what has been lacking, IF the defense had come up with 3 stops, the Pats would have 3 more titles.

So now the job is to find a playmaker on defense. Move up if you have to, NOBODY drafted after the 4th round is making the team, so do some bundling and get a playmaker. Of course, this will almost guarentee another trade back, pass of player X for an additional 3rd round pick that they trade for a future second round pick, that turns out to be Butler, Brace or any of the other busts that litter the Pats recent draft boards.

It's not about playmakers, it's about overall talent. The defense has been in a state of decline since 2007, and that should not be surprising to anyone. The old guard was gone or going, and the new blood was not up to the task of replacing it.

From 2005 on, when the team knew it was going to have to start looking for new defenders, here are the defensive draft picks and the round taken:

2005 - James Sanders (4), Ryan Claridge (5)
2006 - Jeremy Mincey (6), LeKevin Smith (6), Willie Andrews (7)
2007 - Brandon Meriweather (1), Kareem Brown (4), Justice Rogers (6), Mike Richardson (6), Oscar Lua (7)
2008 - Jerod Mayo (1), Terrence Wheatley (2), Shawn Crable (3), Jonathan Wilhite (4), Bo Ruud (6)
2009 - Patrick Chung (2), Ron Brace (2), Tyrone McKenzie (3), Myron Pryor (6)
2010 - Devin McCourty (1), Jermaine Cunningham (2), Brandon Spikes (2), Brandon Deaderick (7), Kade Weston (7)
2011 - Ras-I Dowling (2), Markell Carter (6), Malcolm Williams (7)

DraftHistory.com

That's only about 7 players who've truly flashed at, or near, starter level, for any real period of time, and 2 of the 7 aren't even on the team anymore.

From 2005-2007, BB was building the offense with high picks, and the defense with low picks, and that strategy meant that almost no new defensive players were being added to the team. The team was still being built with veterans, but the quality of free agent veterans was in decline because teams had gotten more adept at managing the salary cap (and the increases in the cap made such management easier).

2008 was the first defensive draft in years, and it turned out to be a major flop, as the only one of the 5 picks to be of any real quality was a top 10 overall pick, and the rest of the choices (2,3,4,6) washed out.

The jury is still out on 2009, but the early results don't look good. As of now, only Chung has established himself.

When you've got that level of struggle in the draft over that period of time, and you aren't making up the gap with great free agent signings, you're going to have problems. It's not about playmakers. It's about having very few true defensive draft hits in the last 7 drafts.

 

[Deus Irae]

Your problem, Ted is that you are all caught up into names and reputations. You are one of those "immediate gratification" guys. You want it, and you want it NOW. You fail to understand that time plays a factor. Just look at the people your mentioned in you OWN post. Only Seymour a high first round pick had an immediate impact. Vrabel didn't have more than 3 sacks until his SIXTH year in the league. It took Bruschi 7 years to find his true role on this team Before that he was just a situational player bouncing from DE to OLB, before becoming an ILB in 2001. Rodney was viewed as a borderline psychopath for many years before he became the play making wise old sage AFTER he came here.

So its true Vrabel, Bruschi, and Harrison AREN'T walking through that door, but that's because they might already be here and you haven't given them a chance to develop, because you want it, and you want it NOW. WAAAAHHHHHH!!!!!!!

Well go suck on a rattle, Ted. Guys like you will NEVER be satisfied.

Even for a rabid homer such as yourself, this is one of the worst posts you've made in months.

 

[Huckleberry1]

If getting to the SB and losing is what its all about then Hoorah!

The Pats havent won a SB in 7 seasons. If youre happy about that good for you.

The Patriots have won more AFC Championships and Super Bowls than any other team in football during the Belichick era, if you want to be miserable about that then by all means be as miserable as you want. The Patriots found a way to get to the Super Bowl with a team that had serious flaws and I am not going to whine and cry about that, instead I enjoyed the play-offs and enjoyed the Super Bowl right up to the point where they lost at the end. I am also going to enjoy this offseason and coming season because they are going to be right in the thick of it once again. You can moan and b.tch and stomp your little feeties all you want but this a great franchise that maintains a level of success all other franchises would love to achieve but can't, if that makes you miserable then so be it. the fact that you didn't even recognize that they had won 3 Super Bowls and claimed they had won nothing this season shows just how poorly informed and myopic you really are, and nothing I say will ever make you look worse than your posts do.