Worst case scenario @27

[manxman2601]

They might be better off getting one of the larger CBs and converting him to safety or moving McCourty there. The SS has to have good cover (and tackling) skills.

Sorry to get on at you for a second post, but why would they be better taking a conversion project than actually drafting the real deal. Barron has good cover skills and is an exemplary tackler.

 

[UK_Pat37]

Sorry to get on at you for a second post, but why would they be better taking a conversion project than actually drafting the real deal. Barron has good cover skills and is an exemplary tackler.

I've heard a few people question how much people play him up as a tackler. Sometimes launches himself at his target...not a good habit if he gets into that int eh NFL.

 

[zimmy]

On the subject of tackling, from what I have seen Barron is much improved. I would be happy to take him in the late 1st round. Harrison Smith I like too. I have heard people talking up Stephon Gilmore as a guy with the potential to switch to safety for us but he reminds me of Meriweather a bit. A guy that wants to go for the hit instead of the tackle, I'm not sure he would be reliable enough for us back there.

Belichick likes people who are fundamentally sound and I think Barron is. I also think he can probably play centre field. I have doubts about Chung's ability to play 16 games so it also makes sense to have someone who can cover both spots and who is well versed in a pro style defense. Speaking of Chung, I remeber people saying we overdrafted him at 34 when he was talked of as a late 2nd rounder. I can see us picking Barron/Smith in a similar spot this year.

 

[fester]

A rookie can't start with more than one strike in the substance abuse policy.

I don't think the concern is NFL status (although that is an issue). The major concern in my eyes is legal system status. I'm not a lawyer nor do I have a deep understanding of most states' DUI laws besides DON"T!!!! but the progression of penalization ranges from fairly mild on a first DUI to bring down the hammer on a 3rd DUI. The logic is that a first DUI could be a rare occurrence, but by #3, esp. with the counseling and AA meetings and monitoring that someone who already had 2 most likely has gone through, it is a demonstrated pattern of highly risky and dangerous behavior that should be dealt with harshly by removing that person from the road AND/OR society for a long while.

 

[NinjaZX6R]

The Bengals will take Barron either with their first or second 1st round selection.

They badly need a FS and a SS...more pressing need is a SS.

 

[everlong]

Assuming that (a) this is the way that the draft fell, and (b) there was no willing partner to trade down, then how about Vinny Curry?

I agree with the other poster that it's a round too early. I don't think the value is there for him at 48 either but 63 depending on who else is on the board.

His 40 time is likely to make him available at the end of the second but his senior bowl and 3-cone drill would put him in play for me. People forget Suggs ran a 4.84 40.

 

[jmt57]

Assuming that (a) this is the way that the draft fell, and (b) there was no willing partner to trade down, then how about Vinny Curry?

Eww. That's a round too early for him in my opinion.

I agree with the other poster that it's a round too early. I don't think the value is there for him at 48 either but 63 depending on who else is on the board.

His 40 time is likely to make him available at the end of the second but his senior bowl and 3-cone drill would put him in play for me. People forget Suggs ran a 4.84 40.

I agree that that would be too early for Curry as well; I was just throwing that out there considering the (lack of) options available given the OP's hypothetical worst case scenario - especially when also factoring in what the Pats may have done (added a vet WR or two) or may not have done (team's own defensive FA's signed elsewhere) in free agency prior to the draft.

 

[patsfan55]

I like Baron, just not in the first round. I also think his skill set and Chung's are too much alike. I'd rather they get a cover guy.

I guess going with Konz is exactly the unsexy safe pick the Patriots would make and that we should expect. He does have the stuff to be a long term starter but I'd so much rather go Ben Jones with our second pick in the second round.

I just want an impact defender and know in the back of my mind it's not happening.

EXACTLY how I feel. To a T. Barron to me is basically a Chung clone. Don't really think he's 1st round talent. I really really want an athletic front 7 guy in the likes of Fletcher Cox or Whitney Mercilus, but deep down I know I won't get what I want. And, I know they'll be great elsewhere. And I know I'll come here and complain about it. And I know many on here will say player x didn't fit this scheme so he wouldn't have played well, and player y who we got still could be okay.

Ugh

 

[everlong]

I agree that that would be too early for Curry as well; I was just throwing that out there considering the (lack of) options available given the OP's hypothetical worst case scenario - especially when also factoring in what the Pats may have done (added a vet WR or two) or may not have done (team's own defensive FA's signed elsewhere) in free agency prior to the draft.

That's why I originally posted it. The value is going to be trading down because after that set of DL all get picked there's really no difference in the talent level between 27 and 47. If somehow Cox or Brockers drops to the late teens I hope they trade up but I'm not holding my breath.

If they traded down and had 47 coupled with 48 that they already have and picked up a 3rd and something else and selected Minnifield and Crick that would be great value. They could still take Barron at 31, although that's still a reach to me, or trade down again and a guy like Brian Quick in the middle or late second who's a much better value than any of the other receivers available at the end of the round.

I'm just prepping everybody for eventuality that is coming. All these first round projections are going to go flying out the window when they don't pick until day two, but then do so often.

 

[BTTA]

That's why I originally posted it. The value is going to be trading down because after that set of DL all get picked there's really no difference in the talent level between 27 and 47. If somehow Cox or Brockers drops to the late teens I hope they trade up but I'm not holding my breath.

If they traded down and had 47 coupled with 48 that they already have and picked up a 3rd and something else and selected Minnifield and Crick that would be great value. They could still take Barron at 31, although that's still a reach to me, or trade down again and a guy like Brian Quick in the middle or late second who's a much better value than any of the other receivers available at the end of the round.

I'm just prepping everybody for eventuality that is coming. All these first round projections are going to go flying out the window when they don't pick until day two, but then do so often.

Agree. I think the Pats will end up with a handful of late second round, and third round, picks this year.

 

[manxman2601]

EXACTLY how I feel. To a T. Barron to me is basically a Chung clone. Don't really think he's 1st round talent. I really really want an athletic front 7 guy in the likes of Fletcher Cox or Whitney Mercilus, but deep down I know I won't get what I want. And, I know they'll be great elsewhere. And I know I'll come here and complain about it. And I know many on here will say player x didn't fit this scheme so he wouldn't have played well, and player y who we got still could be okay.

Ugh

Chung was picked #34 overall, as good as a first round pick. Barron, if a Patriot would be selected seven or three places ahead of Chung. He's not a clone btw, Barron is a much better player than Chung, but even if you are right, there's hardly a huge discrepancy in draft slots.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Sorry to get on at you for a second post, but why would they be better taking a conversion project than actually drafting the real deal. Barron has good cover skills and is an exemplary tackler.

Ah this is a good question but my impression was that this is a weak class for Safeties and Barron could be gone by 27 or his stock could be artificially inflated. I am no GM (we need to remember that none of us are) but it seems to me that the Patriots need a FS good at coverage and Barron might not be as good a fit as a large cover corner (woh might not have CB speed but enough to play FS).

 

[manxman2601]

Ah this is a good question but my impression was that this is a weak class for Safeties and Barron could be gone by 27 or his stock could be artificially inflated. I am no GM (we need to remember that none of us are) but it seems to me that the Patriots need a FS good at coverage and Barron might not be as good a fit as a large cover corner (woh might not have CB speed but enough to play FS).

Bill Belichick doesn't distinguish between free and strong safeties. From his own mouth:

I think that’s the way it’s been the last (eight) years or so, from when it was Rodney and Eugene,” Belichick said. “Both of those players could play both positions, to a degree.”

In today’s NFL, that versatility is necessary since offenses will try to force safeties out of their comfort zone in an attempt to exploit a weakness.
For this reason, players in New England’s system have been taught to play both positions to create the flexibility required to be successful.

“Offenses have done a much better job of making the strong safety play free safety and making the free safety play strong safety,” Belichick said.

“Inevitably, offenses are going to force you to do that. Sometimes, by game plan, we can adjust to that, based on what we them to do … but a lot of times we can’t.”

The question is, do you want to draft someone in the first two rounds with the intention of converting them to the safety position and all the risks that entails or do you want to take someone who is an all-american at the position, who fits pretty much every criteria the Patriots set for new draftees (team captain, good in run support, good in film room etc) and who has shown himself to be good in coverage. If you put him as a zone centerfielder type, I'd upgrade him to excellent in coverage.

Here's a question for you or anyone else, it's a genuine question to which I don't know the answer. How often do Patriots safeties play man coverage or are they used primarily in zone?

 

[patsderoer]

Ah this is a good question but my impression was that this is a weak class for Safeties and Barron could be gone by 27 or his stock could be artificially inflated.

Barron's stock is definitely inflated by the fact that he plays in a stacked defense with a very good front seven unit. He's not that good in run support, watch him miss 3 tackles he should have made in the following vid. Mark Barron vs South Carolina and Florida - YouTube
2:20 2nd and 7 barron makes a poor tackle 2yards from LOS, his target escapes and gets 1st down.
2:49 barron misses the tackle and the target gets 7 yards more, then he is pushed out by another alabama player
5:44 barron misses the tackle and the RB gets another 14yards before he is taken down

At 0:53 he is burned for a 26y TD pass that he should at least had broken up.


I'd be weary of DBs who look good in saban's system. Kareem Jackson also looked very good in saban's system, was taken 20th overall in 2010 by the Texans, and became a JAG in the NFL.

Barron also didnt attend the combine or his Pro Day, so I dont know how his agility compares with other safeties in the draft. None of the QBs faced by Barron are rated in the top 15 of this draft.

I would take H Smith above him. H Smith had an elite 6.63 3-cone at the combine, best among all safeties. He also performed very good against the best QB prospect in this draft, Luck. H Smith is a great great tackler, once he gets his hands on a target that target goes down immediately.

 

[manxman2601]

Barron's stock is definitely inflated by the fact that he plays in a stacked defense with a very good front seven unit. He's not that good in run support, watch him miss 3 tackles he should have made in the following vid. Mark Barron vs South Carolina and Florida - YouTube
2:20 2nd and 7 barron makes a poor tackle 2yards from LOS, his target escapes and gets 1st down.
2:49 barron misses the tackle and the target gets 7 yards more, then he is pushed out by another alabama player
5:44 barron misses the tackle and the RB gets another 14yards before he is taken down

At 0:53 he is burned for a 26y TD pass that he should at least had broken up.


I'd be weary of DBs who look good in saban's system. Kareem Jackson also looked very good in saban's system, was taken 20th overall in 2010 by the Texans, and became a JAG in the NFL.

Barron also didnt attend the combine or his Pro Day, so I dont know how his agility compares with other safeties in the draft. None of the QBs faced by Barron are rated in the top 15 of this draft.

I would take H Smith above him. H Smith had an elite 6.63 3-cone at the combine, best among all safeties. He also performed very good against the best QB prospect in this draft, Luck. H Smith is a great great tackler, once he gets his hands on a target that target goes down immediately.

OK Patsdoerer, time to go toe to toe again.

First I'm going to say this - I respect the fact that you provide evidence to back up your arguments and whilst I think on occasion your analysis is wrong, that you support that analysis with facts is a string to your bow.

OK, onto your Barron analysis:

1. Your cited "burned" on a 26 yd TD pass. Yes Barron is unable to make a play on the ball, a blot against him, but how is the fact that he made a perfect read on the pass and got into a position to make the play considered "burned". That was perfect safety play until the missed breakup. That missed breakup is the exception that proves the rule. Barron has exceptional ball skills and there is plenty of Youtube evidence to support that - in fact the example you cite is the only one you'll find on the internet I suspect (because I haven't seen any others).

2. The missed tackles:

2:49 barron misses the tackle and the target gets 7 yards more, then he is pushed out by another alabama player

The runner has three blockers ahead of him and the only defender on that side of the field is Barron. This play should have been an automatic TD but as the commentator says, Barron avoids all three blockers and makes enough of a play on the runner to slow him up long enough for cover to get across. Barron also forces the runner to the sideline making the defensive play easier. Barron saved a TD with that play. Finally, watch that play again. Every defender bites on the reverse save one. Guess who?

2:20 2nd and 7 barron makes a poor tackle 2yards from LOS, his target escapes and gets 1st down.

Well if you count rolling across the first down marker getting a first down then I suppose so. The rules of football don't however. I notice you ignore the very next play where Barron penetrates the LOS and stops the back in the backfield.

At 3:55 in the video there is a play where one could argue Barron does get burned by a receiver but Barron's ball playing skills and long arms prevent the TD.

One final argument against yours, that video is of the 2010 season, two years ago - his play was much improved in 2011 (and btw with two exceptions, that was some damn good play by Barron in his junior year.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Y'all continue to forget a frequently repeated Belichick maxim. You don't gamble in the First round. You take a First round player, Period. Or you trade out. Consequently, He has never had a first round bust.

Belichick does and has gambled in subsequent rounds though.

 

[patsderoer]

1. Your cited "burned" on a 26 yd TD pass. Yes Barron is unable to make a play on the ball, a blot against him, but how is the fact that he made a perfect read on the pass and got into a position to make the play considered "burned". That was perfect safety play until the missed breakup.

Not even close. Yes he was burned, and in fact he didnt made a perfect read on the pass, he made a p1ss poor read, thats why the ball sailed over him and into the receiver's hands. Perfect safety play? a decent safety at least breaks that up. I dont even want to imagine what would happen in the NFL with that "perfect read on the pass".

That missed breakup is the exception that proves the rule. Barron has exceptional ball skills and there is plenty of Youtube evidence to support that - in fact the example you cite is the only one you'll find on the internet I suspect (because I haven't seen any others).

Its more like Barron has a great front seven in front of him, the best in the country, which plenty of times forced the QB to throw all kinds of garbage into the air, which then got picked off by Barron, and wow, what a great safety he is. I'm not impressed, especially after the Kareem jackson experiment. I certainly would have liked to see how Barron plays with an average front seven, like the one in Notre Dame. What happened if the alabama's front seven couldnt get to the QB, and the Qb has enough time to throw a quality throw? Well, barron gets burned for a 26yard TD.

The youtube "evidence" is more like evidence of what a great front seven system alabama defence has, than what a great safety Barron is.

Want to see how great the alabama front seven unit system is? well, they made even a NFL JAG (kareem jackson) look like a shutdown CB.
Player Bio: Kareem Jackson - ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE - University of Alabama Official Athletic Site
Veteran cornerback Kareem Jackson has excelled on the field in 2009 ... started all nine games and proven to be a shutdown corner as the Tide secondary ranks second nationally in pass efficiency defense (90.43) ... has 27 tackles, an interception - which was returned 79 yards - and nine pass breakups in 2009 ... ranks fifth in the SEC in passes defended (10) and tied for third in pass breakups.

I'm sure that the Texans fans will tell you how much of a shutdown CB KJ is in the NFL.

2. The missed tackles:

The runner has three blockers ahead of him and the only defender on that side of the field is Barron. This play should have been an automatic TD but as the commentator says, Barron avoids all three blockers and makes enough of a play on the runner to slow him up long enough for cover to get across. Barron also forces the runner to the sideline making the defensive play easier. Barron saved a TD with that play. Finally, watch that play again. Every defender bites on the reverse save one. Guess who?

BS commentary. The fact is, Barron was not blocked, he had both his hands on the runner, but still blew the tackle.
And thats absolutely BS that every defender bites on the reverse. In fact, at least 2 start to follow the reverse at the same time as Barron, as soon as the ball is received by the runner, and in fact 1 of those 2 makes the TD-saving tackle, which Barron missed. If that alabama defender did as you suggested, bit on the reverse, that would have been a TD, cause Barron blew the tackle.

Well if you count rolling across the first down marker getting a first down then I suppose so. The rules of football don't however. I notice you ignore the very next play where Barron penetrates the LOS and stops the back in the backfield.

The very next play in the vid is the 1st down, so the opposition had no problem to convert the easy 3rd and short, and it was 3rd and short because Barron made a poor tackle.

The very next play alabama was stacking the box against the run, and Barron "penetrated" the LOS completely unblocked, so I'm not sure why should I give him a medal for this.

One final argument against yours, that video is of the 2010 season, two years ago - his play was much improved in 2011 (and btw with two exceptions, that was some damn good play by Barron in his junior year.

I respect the fact that you took time the to provide your analysis, and yes, the vid is from 2 years ago, but it highlights that Barron is not that great in run support as you are making him out to be. And once again, his youtube highlights are more of a highlight of what a great front seven system alabama has. No less than 8 of alabama's defence starters will be NFL players, and many are projected in the first round. They played great as a unit, in saban's system, and blew their opponents away as a unit, but taken individually, some are not that great and can easily became like Karreem Jackson, JAGs.

And ofcourse, the fact still remains that Barron didnt face any QB in the top15 in this draft this season, while H Smith went up against the best of them, Luck, and did very well. Andrew Luck vs Notre Dame 2011 - YouTube
H Smith is #22, and Luck couldnt burn him deep.

 

[mtbpats]

Y'all continue to forget a frequently repeated Belichick maxim. You don't gamble in the First round. You take a First round player, Period. Or you trade out. Consequently, He has never had a first round bust.

Belichick does and has gambled in subsequent rounds though.

Brandon Meriweather

 

[Christopher Patriot]

Merriweather was a great college player, he was considered the top safety in the draft but off the field incidents made him fall, Only reason Merriweather didn't make it with the Pats, was his constant freelancing which Belichick thought could be untaught, but the heart wants what the heart wants, and even though that freelancing earned Merriweather a inflated pro bowl ballet, for every big play he made he gave up 3 mid range plays, and it got worse as time went on.
I love the talent of a kirkpatrick or a Jenkins, but the same reason I don't think Deon Sanders couldn't be a Patriot, and the same reason the Randy Moss experiment went haywire, I don't want to take a chance on talented but loose wire type of guys, we need hard working all in blue collar lunch pail type of guys and that is exactly what Harrison Smith and Jared Crick represent and that's why I'd rather have one of those guys than a Barron, or a Janoris Jenkins or Dre Kirkpatrick.

What do people know about Nick Perrys upbringing?
I'm trying to do my research on him because he is my favorite 3-4 outside linebacker in this draft.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Chung was picked #34 overall, as good as a first round pick. Barron, if a Patriot would be selected seven or three places ahead of Chung. He's not a clone btw, Barron is a much better player than Chung, but even if you are right, there's hardly a huge discrepancy in draft slots.

We'd actually be getting Barron later than if he was healthy. A month ago everyone was mocking him 16 to the Jets. A late first round pick for a middle of the first round safety? Yes please.