ESPN/Scouts Inc. Take II

[DagoTom]

So, I have a question. For those of you who have actually seen some Charger games, who does the Chargers offense remind you of? Anyone?

I have a couple ideas but I want to see what anyone who isn't biased like me thinks.

 

[tssd888]

Two things:


1.) Your disagreeing with me doesn't mean that I'm not being objective, or at least as objective as possible in a situation like this. In this case it just makes you wrong.


2.) You misread the first post, missing the LB advantage to SD, so I'll take this opportunity to offer a little more depth. I'd give the edges like this:

RB#1 to SD
RB#2, RB#3 to NE

FB to SD

QB to NE

WR to SD, but it's a case of 6.1 of one and 5.9 of the other. Neither team is well-served here.

TE#1 to SD
TE overall to NE, because I'll take the NE combo over the SD combo

DL to NE
LB to SD
DB to NE

That leaves the OL to be compared, and I'll take the NE interior (Mankins, Koppen and O'Neal) over the SD interior, while giving SD the advantage on the outside. Overall, however, I'd give the nod to NE in a close call.

so you are being objective and I'm considered just plain wrong......uh....ok. I do apologize for missing that you hadn't switched the LB's also to NE. I thought you were giving everything except for RB to NE which is why I thought it a little too biased and not objective.

while some areas can be debated and are probably too close to call, I disagree that the Chargers OL is not an advantage to San Diego. That is just my opinion though.

 

[Deus Irae]

so you are being objective and I'm considered just plain wrong......uh....ok. I do apologize for missing that you hadn't switched the LB's also to NE. I thought you were giving everything except for RB to NE which is why I thought it a little too biased and not objective.

while some areas can be debated and are probably too close to call, I disagree that the Chargers OL is not an advantage to San Diego. That is just my opinion though.

Yes, you were wrong. You missed the LB, which you noted now. Like I said, I was as objective as possible under the circumstances. As for your assertion about the Chargers offensive line, I don't know what to tell you except what I've already typed. So, go take a look at the first table on this page:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol.php

and you'll see that New England's numbers match up very favorably with San Diego's numbers despite not having Tomlinson in the backfield. Just as an example of what I'm saying, New England was #1 in the league in converting third and fourth downs with 2 yards or fewer to go for a first down or touchdown. So, you're welcome to continue insisting that the SD line is better, but the numbers don't really show that, particularly when you factor in the much improved play for New England in the second half of the season.

 

[cubedoggy]

So, I have a question. For those of you who have actually seen some Charger games, who does the Chargers offense remind you of? Anyone?

I have a couple ideas but I want to see what anyone who isn't biased like me thinks.

Last year's Chiefs (post-Priest).

(And, yes, I have seen many Charger games on the Sunday Ticket.)

 

[sanvara]

On Defense:

This is so hard because you have two different systems.

For instance, in BB's system they depend on the LB's smarts a lot
so for BB's system the PATs LBs while not as young and as atheletic
have the brains needed in his system.
So let's say LBs are a draw based on the system they play in.

Disagree. Edge to Chargers. Two game changing big-play guys in Merriman and Phillips and Donnie Edwards is just solid and a great cover LB.

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The secondary is the same ... BB requires a lot of communicating...
... PATs secondary guys are just as atheletic ... so say a draw.

Disagree. Slight edge to Pats. The Chargers secondary is the weakest link on the team although CB Jammer has been pretty good this year.

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You didn't address the D-Line so I will. Slight edge to Pats 1-3 but the Chargers D-Line has two very good players in Castillo (who some actually say is the best defensive player on the team) and Jamal Williams is a beast and a pro-bowler at NT. Chargers 3rd lineman in the 3-4 is the weak-link.

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QB edge, the most crucial element , is PATs.

Yes. No doubt. But let's not forget Rivers was the 4th rated passer in the AFC and had the highest quarterback rating in the NFL in the 4th quarter of games. If he struggles early don't get your hopes up too much. He's a slow starter and a strong finisher in games. He will look like he is down for the count sometimes and then come up with a couple big plays. If he has (still to be determined) the mental toughness to perfom in a big game the advantage won't be that big. If he falls apart this will decide the game.

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The RBs as a Unit go to SD. no doubt but the PATs aren't so far behind.

Disagree. Substantial edge to Chargers here. Tomlinson may be the best player in football and Tomlinson's backup Michael Turner is a horse who would be the starter on a lot of teams. Pro-bowl FB Neal solidifies Chargers substantial advantage. The Chargers have two pro-bowl caliber players in the backfield and a third guy who is a legit starter caliber player if not for Tomlinson.

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The Olines I'd say could be adraw. Both Olines have a lot of guys that have
been working together for years. However I am going to give the slight
edge to the PATs. Why? because I've seen the PATs Oline step it up in the post season and
do things many couldn't believe. SB 38 for example.

Ok. But Chargers OL is very good and it's pretty much a draw. Not a real noticeable advantage either way.

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The TEs edge go to the PATs. Sorry, Gates is one guy and a great receiver.
But PATs get the Blocking edge and with three very good TEs can bring 3
TE sets that can cause lots of mismatches.

You are way off here. Gates is one of the top two TE's in the league and the Chargers have a great blocking TE in Manumaleuna who can also catch a pass. Definite edge to Chargers because of Gates.

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The WRs ... as of now I'd say a draw in physical ability.
But if PATs' Jackson has a break out game, which he due to have anytime,
the edge could be the PATs.

It's a draw. Pats let their two best recievers leave. Chargers receivers are passable but nothing special.

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The offense over all is a draw.

Disagree. Definite advantage SD on offense unless Rivers just falls apart due to nerves. SD was the top or a top 2 offense in the league all year. The Chargers averaged over 30 PPG for the season. Brady is great but he does not have the weapons on offense that the Chargers have.

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Special teams - don't know much about the Pats special teams. Chargers have a solid punter and a pro-bowl kicker. Their coverage on kickoffs is a bit weak.

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Key factors that should decide the game:

Rivers. He doesn't need to have an all-pro game but he needs to be solid. If he falls apart or has a really bad game this will probably decide the outcome. You always know what you are going to get in Brady - just great solid QB play.

Chargers big play capability on both sides of the ball in Tomlinson, Merriman and Philips. If the Chargers can get a couple big plays on offense/defense this will decide the game in what will be a close game otherwise.

Coaching. Marty is not going to outcoach Bill on strategy or in X's and O's but he's a great motivator and his teams play a disciplined style with few mistakes. If he holds his own the Chargers should win. If Bill badly outcoaches him, Pats will win.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

RB#1 to SD
RB#2, RB#3 to NE

SD's #2, Turner, isn't much of a downgrade from LdT, and either can work as a third down back. I'd give the edge to San Diego since their pair can provide the same quality the Pats' triumvirate can provide.

 

[cubedoggy]

SD's #2, Turner, isn't much of a downgrade from LdT, and either can work as a third down back. I'd give the edge to San Diego since their pair can provide the same quality the Pats' triumvirate can provide.

Yup, I'd bet the Burner will starting for the G-Men next year.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

You didn't address the D-Line so I will. Slight edge to Pats but the Chargers D-Line has two very good players in Castillo (who some actually say is the best defensive player on the team) and Jamal Williams is a beast and a pro-bowler at NT.

Castillo was #1 on my draft board that year. I'm surprised he and Olshansky aren't flip flopped to put the better pass rusher on the QB's blind side.

 

[Deus Irae]

Castillo was #1 on my draft board that year. I'm surprised he and Olshansky aren't flip flopped to put the better pass rusher on the QB's blind side.

Just as an FYI, since I noted the O-line earlier...

Breaking down the D-line:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl.php

New England was better against the run.... better on 3rd/4th and 2 yards or less (San Diego was actually second worst in the league here).... and had a better sack rate. They have the best player on either line, in Seymour.

 

[Deus Irae]

SD's #2, Turner, isn't much of a downgrade from LdT, and either can work as a third down back. I'd give the edge to San Diego since their pair can provide the same quality the Pats' triumvirate can provide.

I disagree with you somewhat here. I'd take Maroney over Turner. However, our end result is the same. In the final analysis, I'd still choose San Diego at the RB spot because the #1 spot's not even close, although I think Dillon has more than enough in the tank to make things happen this postseason, particularly in short yardage situations.

 

[JR4]

Disagree. Edge to Chargers. Two game changing big-play guys in Merriman and Phillips and Donnie Edwards is just solid and a great cover LB.

I see it as the LBs on both teams required to do different things.
While PATs LBs may not make the flashy big plays Chargers do they make
the PATs defense work because they know how to work the system BB
has set up which required more than just physical ability.

Disagree. Substantial edge to Chargers here. Tomlinson may be the best player in football and Tomlinson's backup Michael Turner is a horse who would be the starter on a lot of teams. Pro-bowl FB Neal solidifies Chargers substantial advantage. The Chargers have two pro-bowl caliber players in the backfield and a third guy who is a legit starter caliber player if not for Tomlinson.

I still do not think it is as substantial as you think. To say that totally
disrespects what Dillon/Maroney have done this year. I see our two
headed monster matched against your one head monster.
Tomlinson 1815yds and 28TDs
Dillon/Maroney 1557 and 20TDs

Disagree. Definite advantage SD on offense unless Rivers just falls apart due to nerves. SD was the top or a top 2 offense in the league all year. The Chargers averaged over 30 PPG for the season. Brady is great but he does not have the weapons on offense that the Chargers have.

I think you may be understimating PATs passing game. Yes Chargers
have the running game advantage but PATs have the passing game
advantage.
Brady has for weapons Watson, Graham, Maroney and Faulk besides his
WRs. He has weapons.
But the difference is the how those weapons will be defended in the passing
game. My edge goes to PATs here. Brady will have a good day inspite of
SD's pass rush.

Special teams - don't know much about the Pats special teams. Chargers have a solid punter and a pro-bowl kicker. Their coverage on kickoffs is a bit weak.

PATs STs are pretty good and may be givng Brady a good starting field position at least some of the time. PATs new Punter can get it down field.
If this becomes a field position battle PATs may have the edge.

Key factors that should decide the game:

Rivers. He doesn't need to have an all-pro game but he needs to be solid. If he falls apart or has a really bad game this will probably decide the outcome. You always know what you are going to get in Brady - just great solid QB play.

Chargers big play capability on both sides of the ball in Tomlinson, Merriman and Philips. If the Chargers can get a couple big plays on offense/defense this will decide the game in what will be a close game otherwise.

Coaching. Marty is not going to outcoach Bill on strategy or in X's and O's but he's a great motivator and his teams play a disciplined style with few mistakes. If he holds his own the Chargers should win. If Bill badly outcoaches him, Pats will win.

one other key:
I would add to that ... the trenches. If PATs can pass block decently
that will be key because then the game is Tom's to win and he will.
Also if PATs Dline can get pressure on Rivers without a lot of help it
will be a long day for Rivers.

 

[The_Dragon]

I won't post the entire thing as it's paid ESPN insider content but I'll post enough to generate some debate/discussion. This just came out today:

Edge:

QB: NE
RB: SD
WR: SD
OL: SD
DL: NE
LB: SD
CB: SD
ST: SD
Coach: NE
Overall: SD

In thinking about this game this week I've found it hard to find a compelling reason to pick one team.

LT is the best back in football -> NE has one the top run defenses.

NE have excellent red-zone defense -> SD have excellent red zone offense.

Personally I believe that NE are more physically conditioned than the majority of teams in the NFL -> SD's high scoring rate in the fourth quarter suggests that physical conditioning will not be a problem.

I could go on about how the teams match up... youth vs experience, etc.

My deciding factor would be this:

SD have a good QB and great running game - > NE have a good running game and a great QB.


I take the great QB with the good running game.

 

[tssd888]

Yes, you were wrong. You missed the LB, which you noted now. Like I said, I was as objective as possible under the circumstances. As for your assertion about the Chargers offensive line, I don't know what to tell you except what I've already typed. So, go take a look at the first table on this page:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol.php

and you'll see that New England's numbers match up very favorably with San Diego's numbers despite not having Tomlinson in the backfield. Just as an example of what I'm saying, New England was #1 in the league in converting third and fourth downs with 2 yards or fewer to go for a first down or touchdown. So, you're welcome to continue insisting that the SD line is better, but the numbers don't really show that, particularly when you factor in the much improved play for New England in the second half of the season.

I'm normally big into stats but when it comes to OL I just don't think they can apply. WAY too many things to take into account. I'll end my arguement on this area.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

any Pats fan comparing Dillon/maroney to Tomlinson is delusional. I'm not selling Dillon/Maroney short. They're a great combo, one of the top in the league. The gap between Tomlinson and everyone else is just that great.

Bah, I don't like breakdowns like this. It puts too much emphasis on talent and individuals. I've seen enough guys like David Patten, Randle Gay, and Antwoin Smith excel with the Pats that I put little stock into these things. Remember Earthwind Moreland? Didin't he start a superbowl?

 

[DaBruinz]

I agree with that assesment, but I don't see how you could give the SD defensive backfield the edge. I know we are weaker without Rodney, but SDs secondary has basically nothing.

I wouldn't say that SD's defensive backfield has nothing. Marlon McCree is a good safety and they have pretty good depth in their backfield, in general. I can understand why they gave SD the edge because our backfield is actually pretty thin.

Samuel, Hobbs, Spann, Andrews, C. Scott, A. Hawkins, J. Sanders, R. Mickens. Troy Brown and Bam Childress are our emergency DBs.

Spann hasn't shown much and Andrews only sees the field as a gunner. So, that gives the Pats only 6 viable options for 4 positions. Not exactly the position to be in.

 

[Kdo5]

SD's recieving core with the edge? And these people call themselves experts?

Unless they count Gates, it might make sense, but we still have a deeper recieving core of solid hardworking players.

 

[sanvara]

SD's recieving core with the edge? And these people call themselves experts?

Unless they count Gates, it might make sense, but we still have a deeper recieving core of solid hardworking players.

Yeah I think they are counting Gates. If you include him they do have the edge.

 

[sanvara]

I still do not think it is as substantial as you think. To say that totally
disrespects what Dillon/Maroney have done this year. I see our two
headed monster matched against your one head monster.
Tomlinson 1815yds and 28TDs
Dillon/Maroney 1557 and 20TDs

Well if you want to compare the top two backs on each team let's do it.

Tomlinson/Turner: 2317 yds rushing - 5.4 yds/rush
556 yds recieving
2873 Total Yards

Dillon/Mahoney: 1557 yds rushing - 4.1 yds/rush
306 yds recieving
1863 Total Yards

It's not even close. There's over 1000 yards difference and 1.3 yards/rush higher for the Chargers between the top two backs on each team. Most people don't realize Michael Turner averages 6.3 yards a rush. Then add a Pro-Bowl fullback to that mix for the Chargers. These numbers are also a testament to how good the Chargers OL and FB are at run-blocking. The top three backs on the Chargers are averaging 5.2, 6.3 and 4.8 yards a rush. Neal being the low man at 4.8/yards a rush because he can't block for himself.

As I said, the Charger's backs and running game is substantially better than the Pats.

 

[The Gr8est]

Remember Earthwind Moreland? Didin't he start a superbowl?

I don't think so, Earthwind was the one guy who proved he was so terrible that even BB couldn't coach him into adequacy.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Looks right to me. Although I'm not sure our WRs deserve the edge, I would have probably split that.

I disagree with at least one case. The ILBs and the OLBs are two different squads in my opinion.

I will take the youngsters in the ILBs.

In that case it means "youngsters" Bruschi and Vrabel 33 & 31, rather than 34 year old game but undersized Edwards; and the twosome of Godfrey 32, a shell of his old self, and the raw Cooper. I'll take 3.5 YPC versus 4.2 YPC.

Everyone will concede the media hype to Merriman and Phillips but fundamentally unsound all out pass rushes lead to lots of sacks and lots of errors. Its Much harder to be disciplined, play the run, and then rush the passer; half a dozen sacks that way count for more, than a dozen or even a dozen and half, not playing the fundamental game. Rushing the passer and shutting down the run is better, than getting a sack of or giving up 4.2 YPC and a opps passer rating of 77.

It gets you headlines, but...... That's All Folks.