Disturbing stats for Brady

[larek]

You're missing the point.

Turnovers happen on a case by case basis. It's not some aggregate number over a multi game time frame.

Furthermore, it's completely incorrect to assume that turnovers are like punts. That's patently false.

Go over to advancedfootball stats and look at the probability of scoring by field position. The reality is there are few examples where turnovers can occur without providing the opponent with better field position to score or you don't turn the ball over and not score points.

Any turnover from your one yard line to the opponent's 40 means the opponent has better field position to score. To be conservative, any turnover inside the opponent's 30 means you most likely don't score points.

This leaves a very thin 10-15 stretch where the punt/turnover overlap MIGHT be immaterial.

The FG observation is also incorrect. Why?

Here's a question.

What defense "sucks"?

The defense that allowed 2 TD's on four drives

The defense that allowed 3 TD's on ten drives

Does 21 or 14 points infer a better chance to win?

One major fault of football stats is it's oblivious to the amount of drives a team is afforded and why the hysteria over pass yards is overdone.

Our defense (when Brady's good) and the Packers should give up more yards because we score with abandon and pretty quickly.

What turnovers do is give the opponent more chances and by definition you have zero chances to score to match.

Also, there's momentum.

The D is bad -linebackers- not good- Secondary- brutal- D line best part of the D which isnt saying much- simply thats it in a nutshell

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

The D is bad -linebackers- not good- Secondary- brutal- D line best part of the D which isnt saying much- simply thats it in a nutshell

Is that the consensus over in the Zeroes section or are you just a loose cannon?

 

[BradyManny]

Many of the turnovers came in spots where it seemed a relative certainty that the Pats were going to score points of their own.

I agree - that's the more important here. The picks deprived the team of scoring points. The points that resulted to me are much less of a factor. When Brady threw that pick to Woodhead, I didn't think Buffalo had a chance of putting up 3, but they did. I was more concerned with the 3-7 points we just lost.

 

[BradyManny]

Go over to advancedfootball stats and look at the probability of scoring by field position.

Here's what I see at advanced football stats:

Advanced NFL Stats - Player Statistics by Position

Brady #1 in WPA

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I don't argue against that- the defense still does give up 151 points even if Brady never turns the ball over. But the difference between him not turning over the ball and turning over it this much so far has been 40 points and that is a huge difference.

In view of the fact that our losses have been by an average of just 5 points, 40 points is colossal. So unfortunately in this regard, Brady is hurting this team, no matter how one puts it.

What I and others seem to be having a hard time getting across to you and some others is that Brady isn't necessarily responsible for turning over the ball in 8 out of 10 of those instances you keep citing of Brady hurting the team. The team is hurting itself in those and a lot of other instances...

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Here's what I see at advanced football stats:

Advanced NFL Stats - Player Statistics by Position

Brady #1 in WPA

Try

advancednflstats.com

I don't know how to link.

 

[BradyManny]

Another interesting post:

Advanced NFL Stats: The Giants Make Tom Brady Look Human

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pkbtvaeaD...jU/s1600/Brady_Tilts_At_Windmills+%281%29.png

What's interesting to note is that the Giants game is really the only one where he - statistically - was a demerit to the team at any point in the game, other than the 1st Q of the Dallas game. Which flies in the face of the premise of this thread.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

What I and others seem to be having a hard time getting across to you and some others is that Brady isn't necessarily responsible for turning over the ball in 8 out of 10 of those instances you keep citing of Brady hurting the team. The team is hurting itself in those and a lot of other instances...

It seems to me that the opposing defenses have figured out Brady's read progression. 1.) Welker 2.) TEs 3.) Branch 4.) RB

Maybe if Brady changes up the progression, especially on first and third downs Branch first and Welker 3rd. for instance, then maybe the opposing defense can't jump as many routes.

 

[ivanvamp]

Has Brady been worse this year than last?

Obviously, it sure feels like Brady has had a much worse season this year than last year. But let's look at it....

Completion %
2010: 65.9%
2011: 66.0%

Yds/Game
2010: 243.8
2011: 337.9

Touchdowns
2010: 36 (in 16 games = 2.25/g)
2011: 20 (in 8 games = 2.50/g)

Yds/Att
2010: 7.9
2011: 8.4 (the highest Y/A of his career, btw)

All those numbers show that he's actually having a better season this year than last year. There is, however, one mighty big number that is neutralizing all that.

Int %
2010: 0.8
2011: 3.1

Brady averaged 1/4 of an interception per game last year. This year, he's averaging 1 1/4 per game. That one extra INT per game has been huge, costing the Patriots' offense points, and leading to points allowed by the defense. (and that INT rate is what's making the respective QB ratings different - 111.0 in 2010 compared with 100.0 in 2011)

If Brady cuts down on his INTs, we're looking at another ridiculously great season by him. If he doesn't cut down on his INTs, well, I don't think the Pats will last long in the playoffs.

 

[LetsGoPats36]

Re: Has Brady been worse this year than last?

Yes, he has been worse this year. You can ignore all the numbers and just watch games from this year and last and there is a noticeable difference.

Right now, I think this is the worst Brady has looked besides stretches of 2002 and the beginning of 2009. He's not playing bad football, but from what we have come to expect he's underachieving just like the rest of the team.

 

[Jangles]

Re: Has Brady been worse this year than last?

A lot of those stats are skewed by the first 2 games of the season.

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

Re: Has Brady been worse this year than last?

Count only his first 8 games last year vs the first 8 this year for a more accurate look

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

Re: Has Brady been worse this year than last?

Obviously, it sure feels like Brady has had a much worse season this year than last year. But let's look at it....

Completion %
2010: 65.9%
2011: 66.0%

Yds/Game
2010: 243.8
2011: 337.9

Touchdowns
2010: 36 (in 16 games = 2.25/g)
2011: 20 (in 8 games = 2.50/g)

Yds/Att
2010: 7.9
2011: 8.4 (the highest Y/A of his career, btw)

All those numbers show that he's actually having a better season this year than last year. There is, however, one mighty big number that is neutralizing all that.

Int %
2010: 0.8
2011: 3.1

Brady averaged 1/4 of an interception per game last year. This year, he's averaging 1 1/4 per game. That one extra INT per game has been huge, costing the Patriots' offense points, and leading to points allowed by the defense. (and that INT rate is what's making the respective QB ratings different - 111.0 in 2010 compared with 100.0 in 2011)

If Brady cuts down on his INTs, we're looking at another ridiculously great season by him. If he doesn't cut down on his INTs, well, I don't think the Pats will last long in the playoffs.

Brady during the first 8 games last year:

166 completions, 261 attempts (63.6%)
1,826 yards (228.25 per game 7.0 per attempt), 14 TDs, 4 INTs
QB rating of 95.7
(Sacked 13 times)

What a difference the last 8 games of a season can make!

 

[MossWelkowski]

Re: Has Brady been worse this year than last?

You make it sound like INTs are no big deal. Brady has probably cost this team a couple wins with his redzone INTs.

He's clearly been worse of what is probably his second best year of his career lol.

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

Re: Has Brady been worse this year than last?

Final 8 games last year:
231 attempts, 158 completions (68.4%)
2074 yards (259.25 per game, 8.98 per attempt)
22 TD, 0 INT
QB rating of 128.2
(Sacked 12 times)

All the offense has to do is start clicking. Last year it took 8 games. This year with no off season program, could take longer, but I still think he will and hopefully this time it will continue on in to the playoffs!!

 

[Patspsycho]

You're missing my point: the correlation between turnovers and points allowed is a very fragile one if we don't look at the turnovers in a case-by-case example. It is especially flawed because, by definition, we are giving the defense a free pass on any possession resulting from an offensive turnover.

Take the INTs to Woodhead and Gronk in the Bills game - both of which happened at the goalline. The Pats yielded a 66 yard FG drive to end the half & a 95 yard touchdown drive off of those.

We can't absolve the defense of such poor play after these interceptions.

I'm not missing your point. I'm just sticking to my point. Even if the turnover occurs on the one yard line, it still gives the opponent's offense one more chance to move ahead of you in points or lengthen their lead. Strictly, numbers speaking, if you keep giving the opponent's offense opportunity after opportunity, they're going to eventually score, no matter how good your defense is.

But an interception is psychologically much more than it represents on the stat sheet- it puts more pressure on the D because instead of coming away with 7 more points, the offense is suddenly off the field, and you've got to hustle back on.

 

[LetsGoPats36]

Re: Has Brady been worse this year than last?

Another thing to consider, whether you lament the lack of a deep threat in this offense or not, this has to be as well stocked as Brady's weapons have been since 2007 and debatably better than 04.

 

[mvrabel50]

Re: Has Brady been worse this year than last?

You make it sound like INTs are no big deal. Brady has probably cost this team a couple wins with his redzone INTs.

He's clearly been worse of what is probably his second best year of his career lol.

Of Brady's 10 ints, I feel like 3 were only his fault.

1 was a bad route by ochocinco against buffalo i think
4 were deflected at the line
3 were deflected by our receivers
1 was a td pass to aaron hernandez that went through his hands

I still feel like he hasn't been as accurate as in recent years. I think he's getting hurried more and that's having a huge impact.

 

[mvrabel50]

Re: Has Brady been worse this year than last?

Another thing to consider, whether you lament the lack of a deep threat in this offense or not, this has to be as well stocked as Brady's weapons have been since 2007 and debatably better than 04.

Disagree with that, other than welker and his TE's he has nobody.

 

[BradyManny]

I'm not missing your point. I'm just sticking to my point. Even if the turnover occurs on the one yard line, it still gives the opponent's offense one more chance to move ahead of you in points or lengthen their lead. Strictly, numbers speaking, if you keep giving the opponent's offense opportunity after opportunity, they're going to eventually score, no matter how good your defense is.

But an interception is psychologically much more than it represents on the stat sheet- it puts more pressure on the D because instead of coming away with 7 more points, the offense is suddenly off the field, and you've got to hustle back on.

Well, if you're going to bring the psychological aspect into this. What affect do you think it has on the psyche being the QB of a team that as of two weeks ago was the 10th worst pass defense of all time?

Ignoring that - I still maintain that a turnover does not necessarily or inherently give your opponent extra possessions. You have to go case by case.