I think your analysis is from the viewpoint of the fans value of his abilty and worth. I do not think BB, Mayo or Mayo's agent need a taackle statistic to change their opinions of him. I think BBs value of Mayo did not change a great deal in the last 12 months.
This is a very good point Andy, and I certainly agree as a whole. However, I am not necessarily talking about Belichick's view of him, I am talking about his agent's and even possibly his own.
Last yr we were all pretty happy with him, but there were certainly plenty who were questioning if he'd ever be able to take that next step. There were plenty who talked about the fact that he may not be fully living up to that #10 pick overall status. I guess that was somewhat to be expected, as different people will have different expectations of a pick that high. In other words, many of us felt he was SOLID, but there were also many who felt that he was not necessarily a game changer, or 'one of the better ILB's in the game.'
This past year has changed that for sure. He received a lot of media attention, he proved his leadership skills, he proved his stability. I guess those are all great reasons to get him locked up ASAP, and just accept that the cost went higher in the past yr. However, there is always a gamble involved in these matters, and I am simply questioning whether or not this past year was a sign of the future, or just one great season. There are obvious differences between the Mayo of 2009, and 2010. It is very possible that it simply took him a few yrs to learn, master, and feel comfortable with the system. Of course, it's also possible that he just had a really good yr too (not to sound negative, especially considering his overall worth to the team).
I don't think it would be a bad thing to re-sign him now, hell I think we'd all be extremely happy about the present and the future--I just think it would cost a bit more to do so, at this particular point. That's why it's always a gamble I guess. He could have another great season this yr, and that'd put him even higher up on the pay scale. Or he could go back to the 08, 09 version who is solid but not spectacular.
Either way, I think he definitely gets re-signed, and I agree with you that Belichick sees him as a vital piece to the defense's future. I am just questioning the potential value of the future deal, and wondering out loud if it'd be better to do it now, or wait another yr. He has only played 3 yrs on a 5 yr pact---that is my main pt. I just don't see the Patriot front office rushing to re-sign him before 4 to 4 1/2 yrs of that deal have expired. In other words, we should re-visit this topic in at least another yr.
Just out of curiosity--where would you approximate his value, in terms of 'annual average' just for arguments sake? His original deal was for about 5/20, (4 million per ave) but with escalators he could be closer to almost 5 million (again, average) right now, or at least the last 2 yrs of the deal.
I'd have to approximate his value to be between 6-6 1/2 right now, although it's hard to say. He could be closer to 7-7 1/2 too in some minds.
