New Draft Contest

[Mark Morse]

I know we have done this in the past. Not sure who ran it. The Patriots have 9 selections in the draft (as of today). Select any 9 players you think may get selected by the Patriots. The winner usually has no more than two correct. Here is a little twist! You get one point for selecting a correct draft pick ... however if you select the right player at the right pick (1-9) you get the equivalent points to the round they were selected in!

Here are my picks:
1. Cameron Jordan
2.Danny Watkins
3. Marcus Cannon
4. Shane Vereen
5. Allen Bailey
6. Brandon Fusco
7. David Mims
8. Greg McElroy
9. Shiloh Keo

 

[MaineMan]

I know we have done this in the past. Not sure who ran it. The Patriots have 9 selections in the draft (as of today). Select any 9 players you think may get selected by the Patriots. The winner usually has no more than two correct. Here is a little twist! You get one point for selecting a correct draft pick ... however if you select the right player at the right pick (1-9) you get the equivalent points to the round they were selected in!

Here are my picks:
1. Cameron Jordan
2.Danny Watkins
3. Marcus Cannon
4. Shane Vereen
5. Allen Bailey
6. Brandon Fusco
7. David Mims
8. Greg McElroy
9. Shiloh Keo

Not certain I understand. The way I interpret this, if the Pats select Jordan with their first pick, you get 1 point for the player and one point for correctly guessing he'd be the first pick (= 2 points). Then, if you're right that the Pats pick Danny Watkins, but they take him with their 4th pick, you get only one point for the player, but nothing for the slot. However, if the Pats take Shiloh Keo with their last pick, you get one for the player an 9 for the correct slot - a total of 10?

 

[Dufflebagz]

1. JJ Watt
2. Derek Sherrod
3. Danny Watkins
4. Shane Vereen
5. Sam Acho
6. John Moffitt
7. Ricky Stanzi
8. Jaiquawn Jarrett
9. DeAndre Brown

 

[patchick]

I don't believe we've ever run a slotted contest like this here. (Our standard annual contest is just "name as many players as the Pats have picks.") It's an interesting idea, but what happens when they add and subtract picks in trades? Suppose, say, #60 is bundled with #17 to move up in the first and #74 is traded away for a 2012 2nd rounder. What becomes of the guys you named for slots 4 & 5? Do all the lower picks slide up into the next available slot, so that the predictions no longer correspond to the expected rounds? And wouldn't the scoring from then on be rewarding people for having guessed wrong?

Maybe I'm missing something, but basing scoring on slots seems like a tough match for a team with such a trade-happy fella at the reins.

 

[supafly]

I don't believe we've ever run a slotted contest like this here. (Our standard annual contest is just "name as many players as the Pats have picks.") It's an interesting idea, but what happens when they add and subtract picks in trades? Suppose, say, #60 is bundled with #17 to move up in the first and #74 is traded away for a 2012 2nd rounder. What becomes of the guys you named for slots 4 & 5? Do all the lower picks slide up into the next available slot, so that the predictions no longer correspond to the expected rounds? And wouldn't the scoring from then on be rewarding people for having guessed wrong?

Maybe I'm missing something, but basing scoring on slots seems like a tough match for a team with such a trade-happy fella at the reins.

Patchick--will you be in charge of running/starting the 'official' thread again this year too?

And yes, I certainly agree that while the idea of having a slotted system is a different idea and very creative, it may not go too well with this specific teams' drafting philosophy.

Nice job, and thnx to everyone for taking the time to put up contests and mocks. It all makes the time pass a lot easier!

 

[manxman2601]

My picks:

1. Justin Houston
2. Nate Solder
3. Danny Watkins
4. Allen Bailey
5. Shane Vereen
6. Kendrick Ellis
7. Buster Skrine
8. Brandon Fusco
9. Cortez Allen


I'm not convinced that outside the first round, that this is the draft to take reasonable floor but low ceiling players. The limited preparation time that will precede this season means that any rookie will struggle to make much of an impact this coming season. To that end, I've looked for higher ceiling players who can contribute situationally without having to shoulder the burden of three down football.

 

[MaineMan]

I don't believe we've ever run a slotted contest like this here. (Our standard annual contest is just "name as many players as the Pats have picks.") It's an interesting idea, but what happens when they add and subtract picks in trades? Suppose, say, #60 is bundled with #17 to move up in the first and #74 is traded away for a 2012 2nd rounder. What becomes of the guys you named for slots 4 & 5? Do all the lower picks slide up into the next available slot, so that the predictions no longer correspond to the expected rounds? And wouldn't the scoring from then on be rewarding people for having guessed wrong?

Maybe I'm missing something, but basing scoring on slots seems like a tough match for a team with such a trade-happy fella at the reins.

This is pretty much what I was thinking.

 

[Off The Grid]

They way he explained it, you get the extra points for the round.

So if we made NO trades ~ chuckle ~ and he got Shiloh Keo with the 9th Pick, and got the round right, that'd be 1 + 6 = 7.

***

It's an interesting angle, but even if the above objections weren't very valid ~ which of course they are ~ it seems pretty skewed to me that if one guy nailed the first three Picks out of the gate ~ 1st Rounder, 1st Rounder, and first 2nd Rounder ~ and another guy ONLY got the 6th Round Pick correctly, both players would get the same total of 7 Points.

 

[MaineMan]

They way he explained it, you get the extra points for the round.

So if we made NO trades ~ chuckle ~ and he got Shiloh Keo with the 9th Pick, and got the round right, that'd be 1 + 6 = 7.

***

It's an interesting angle, but even if the above objections weren't very valid ~ which of course they are ~ it seems pretty skewed to me that if one guy nailed the first three Picks out of the gate ~ 1st Rounder, 1st Rounder, and first 2nd Rounder ~ and another guy ONLY got the 6th Round Pick correctly, both players would get the same total of 7 Points.

OTOH, it might actually be a bit more difficult to predict what BB is likely to do in the later rounds (O'Connell, Slater, Edelman, etc.).

I'd think something like the following would be more rational/equitable, if we're going to award points for "getting the round correct".

Player (any round) = 3
Player + correct round = 5
- the actual round MUST be specified to account for BB trading around, though this could also increase the total pick count

And maybe:
Position + correct round = 1
- Someone who predicts, for instance, that BB takes an RB in Round Two probably should get at least a little credit for that.

So, a contest entry could be in the form of (just as an example, NOT my official entry):

Watt - DE - 1
Heyward - DE - 2
Leshoure - RB - 2
Carpenter - OT/OG - 2
Acho - OLB - 3
Moffitt - OG/OC - 3
Sherman - FB - 4
Fusco - OC/OG - 4
Allen - CB/FS - 5
Bair - DE - 6
Rogers - CB - 7

 

[juxtapoz15]

I'll try mine the way the MaineMan suggested:

Bowers - DE - 1
Kerrigan - OLB - 1
Leshoure - RB - 2
Harris - CB - 2
Dowling - CB - 3
Sherrod - OL - 3
Hankerson - WR - 3
Wisniewski - C - 4
Devlin - QB - 7

 

[Mark Morse]

I don't believe we've ever run a slotted contest like this here. (Our standard annual contest is just "name as many players as the Pats have picks.") It's an interesting idea, but what happens when they add and subtract picks in trades? Suppose, say, #60 is bundled with #17 to move up in the first and #74 is traded away for a 2012 2nd rounder. What becomes of the guys you named for slots 4 & 5? Do all the lower picks slide up into the next available slot, so that the predictions no longer correspond to the expected rounds? And wouldn't the scoring from then on be rewarding people for having guessed wrong?

Maybe I'm missing something, but basing scoring on slots seems like a tough match for a team with such a trade-happy fella at the reins.

The idea of naming the number of the Pats selection ( 1. = 1A, 2 = 1B etc) allows for the trades of picks. You are picking based on the actual selection. Sure you may pick a player 6th and that pick gets traded so that will throw off your order. Point value = to the round that a player is selected is a reward for making a pick later in draft that is more difficult to predict. This also prevents someone from just selecting all O lineman and getting three right. Hey wait, that might be a successful strategy!!!

 

[Mark Morse]

I don't believe we've ever run a slotted contest like this here. (Our standard annual contest is just "name as many players as the Pats have picks.") It's an interesting idea, but what happens when they add and subtract picks in trades? Suppose, say, #60 is bundled with #17 to move up in the first and #74 is traded away for a 2012 2nd rounder. What becomes of the guys you named for slots 4 & 5? Do all the lower picks slide up into the next available slot, so that the predictions no longer correspond to the expected rounds? And wouldn't the scoring from then on be rewarding people for having guessed wrong?

Maybe I'm missing something, but basing scoring on slots seems like a tough match for a team with such a trade-happy fella at the reins.

I would happily defer to you ... not trying to step on anyones toes!

 

[Off The Grid]

OTOH, it might actually be a bit more difficult to predict what BB is likely to do in the later rounds (O'Connell, Slater, Edelman, etc.).

I'd think something like the following would be more rational/equitable, if we're going to award points for "getting the round correct".

Player (any round) = 3
Player + correct round = 5
- the actual round MUST be specified to account for BB trading around, though this could also increase the total pick count

And maybe:
Position + correct round = 1
- Someone who predicts, for instance, that BB takes an RB in Round Two probably should get at least a little credit for that.

So, a contest entry could be in the form of (just as an example, NOT my official entry):

Watt - DE - 1
Heyward - DE - 2
Leshoure - RB - 2
Carpenter - OT/OG - 2
Acho - OLB - 3
Moffitt - OG/OC - 3
Sherman - FB - 4
Fusco - OC/OG - 4
Allen - CB/FS - 5
Bair - DE - 6
Rogers - CB - 7

Lotta slashes, there.

Half a point for "Leaners"?

 

[Off The Grid]

The idea of naming the number of the Pats selection ( 1. = 1A, 2 = 1B etc) allows for the trades of picks. You are picking based on the actual selection. Sure you may pick a player 6th and that pick gets traded so that will throw off your order.

Point value = to the round that a player is selected is a reward for making a pick later in draft that is more difficult to predict.

This also prevents someone from just selecting all O lineman and getting three right. Hey wait, that might be a successful strategy!!!

I assumed that that was your rationale, and it's certainly rational.

But I would rejoin that while it IS more difficult to hit it, generally, the further back you go...the IMPACT of the earlier picks is so DRAMATICALLY disproportionate to that of the later picks ~ usually ~ that it MORE than tips the scales in the other direction.

Indeed, If I were to structure such a contest, I'd actually reverse it:

1st Round Hit = 7 Points.
2nd Round Hit = 6 Points.
3rd Round Hit = 5 Points.
4th Round Hit = 4 Points.
5th Round Hit = 3 Points.
6th Round Hit = 2 Points.
7th Round Hit = 1 Point.

And I'd definitely integrate Brother Maine's notion of Partial Credit for getting the position right.

As for the conundrum of accounting for The Mad Croatian's mad swapping, I would suggest you simply let each player "Name Their Own Draft" ~ Put a limit of 9 Picks on everyone, if you like, but if someone wants to predict that Coach Bill is gonna Trade Down and restructure so that he has 1 1st Rounder and 3 2nd Rounders, for instance, let them make their Picks based on THAT...and take their chances accordingly.

Just a couple suggestions, sir. I'll move along, now.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I assumed that that was your rationale, and it's certainly rational.

But I would rejoin that while it IS more difficult to hit it, generally, the further back you go...the IMPACT of the earlier picks is so DRAMATICALLY disproportionate to that of the later picks ~ usually ~ that it MORE than tips the scales in the other direction.

Indeed, If I were to structure such a contest, I'd actually reverse it:

1st Round Hit = 7 Points.
2nd Round Hit = 6 Points.
3rd Round Hit = 5 Points.
4th Round Hit = 4 Points.
5th Round Hit = 3 Points.
6th Round Hit = 2 Points.
7th Round Hit = 1 Point.

And I'd definitely integrate Brother Maine's notion of Partial Credit for getting the position right.

As for the conundrum of accounting for The Mad Croatian's mad swapping, I would suggest you simply let each player "Name Their Own Draft" ~ Put a limit of 9 Picks on everyone, if you like, but if someone wants to predict that Coach Bill is gonna Trade Down and restructure so that he has 1 1st Rounder and 3 2nd Rounders, for instance, let them make their Picks based on THAT...and take their chances accordingly.

Just a couple suggestions, sir. I'll move along, now.

Yeah but what if close to the draft it becomes pretty clear in the news who the Pats are drafting in the 1st round. Like the year it was clear Mayo was going to be the guy. Then you're rewarding people 7 pts for making a nobrainer pick. I just don't think a points system works for predicting the Pats draft.

 

[Off The Grid]

I assumed that that was your rationale, and it's certainly rational.

But I would rejoin that while it IS more difficult to hit it, generally, the further back you go...the IMPACT of the earlier picks is so DRAMATICALLY disproportionate to that of the later picks ~ usually ~ that it MORE than tips the scales in the other direction.

Indeed, If I were to structure such a contest, I'd actually reverse it:

1st Round Hit = 7 Points.
2nd Round Hit = 6 Points.
3rd Round Hit = 5 Points.
4th Round Hit = 4 Points.
5th Round Hit = 3 Points.
6th Round Hit = 2 Points.
7th Round Hit = 1 Point.

And I'd definitely integrate Brother Maine's notion of Partial Credit for getting the position right.

As for the conundrum of accounting for The Mad Croatian's mad swapping, I would suggest you simply let each player "Name Their Own Draft" ~ Put a limit of 9 Picks on everyone, if you like, but if someone wants to predict that Coach Bill is gonna Trade Down and restructure so that he has 1 1st Rounder and 3 2nd Rounders, for instance, let them make their Picks based on THAT...and take their chances accordingly.

Just a couple suggestions, sir. I'll move along, now.

Yeah but what if close to the draft it becomes pretty clear in the news who the Pats are drafting in the 1st round. Like the year it was clear Mayo was going to be the guy. Then you're rewarding people 7 pts for making a nobrainer pick. I just don't think a points system works for predicting the Pats draft.

That's a very fair question, and I have the perfect answer:

If it's obvious, then everybody gets those points.

Thus: No undue advantage to anyone...And then SKILL takes over.

 

[bbell31]

julio jones, kerrigan, wilkerson, sherrod, brooks reed, todman, tyron smith skrine, james carpenter,jah reid, keo, cortez allen, taiwan jones, fusco, havili, maehl, chykie brown, curtis brown, chase beeler, k. kowalski



our first pick is looking like wilkerson, brooks reed, sherrod, c. jordan, or julio jones

 

[Off The Grid]

Shift Keys are nice.

 

[VJCPatriot]

So heres my list:

Round 1
1. JJ Watt
2. Cameron Jordan
3. Muhammed Wilkerson
4. Danny Watkins

Round 2
5. Jabaal Sheard
6. Brooks Reed

Round 3
7. Pernell McPhee
8. Shane Vereen
9. Edmund Gates

I'm conflicted about whether or not Watkins makes it to round 2. I think we're going to trade out of 28 and take Watkins with #33 but I'm not sure yet if he lasts to that point. His value just seems to keep creeping up despite his Combine.

 

[I Augustus]

1. Cameron Heyward DE
2. Leonard Harkenson WR
3. Orlando Franklin OG
4. Stefan Wisniewski OC
5. Luke Stocker TE
6. Pierre Allen DE
7. Shane Vareen RB
8. Byron Maxwell CB
9. Nathan Enderle QB