Realistic Draft Class for New England (Is Ninkovich really the answer)

[Box_O_Rocks]

Ermmm...

Am I the only one who quite likes this draft (at least the first round).

... but the question any fan should apply to a Patriot draft is, Does the draft make the Patriot team a better one? I say Ingram/Pouncey says it does.

Perhaps you are.

Ingram is a fine RB, but I don't see RB as the best position value in the first round, at least not for NE. The only reason it's not last (in general) are the kickers and longsnapper.

Pouncey may be a fine OG and could develop into an NFL Center; however, you propose him for NE. Since BB has been drafting for NE, he and Scar have selected five OL in rounds one through three:
-- 2000: Klemm (2nd round, #46), no Combine or Pro-Day data, but his bio notes he was used at TE by Hawaii who bounced him between TE and both OT slots for a while (I interpret that to signify a "very" athletic player).
-- 2001: Light (2nd round, #48). At the Combine he ran 4.49 in the short shuttle and 7.30 in the 3-cone, there are OLB candidates we are discussing who wouldn't mind those numbers. He was a reserve TE as a true freshman, redshirted his sophomore year to begin his transition to OT, then started three seasons at LT.
-- 2005: Mankins (1st round, #32). At the Combine he ran 4.54 ss, 7.54 3-c. He also had a 31.5" vertical jump. He played RT and LT at Fresno State.
-- 2005: Kaczur (3rd round comp, #100). At the Combine he ran 4.76 ss, 7.69 3-c, with a 31.5" vert. He was a four year starter at LT for Toledo.
-- 2009: Vollmer (2nd round, #58). At his Pro-Day he ran 4.50 ss, 7.51 3-c, 36.5" v. He was a reserve TE who was transitioned to OT and played two seasons at LT for Houston.

Four of the above ran 10 splits in 1.85 seconds or faster (no data on Klemm). There was a coach's relationship element of trust for BB or Scar for four of the five (Klemm I don't know about).
All where LTs. Three were converted tight ends.
Three of the five have vertical jump data which exceeded 30" - old timers recall analysis done several years back here indicating 30" was a significant benchmark when assessing a potential starter for NE.

How this compares to young Mr. Pouncey:
-- 4.64 ss, 7.66 3-c (Kaczur was late third, these argue for early third).
-- 25" vertical - ouch! (Dan Koppen had 28.5", he was a 5th round pick out of an O-line factory.)
-- 10 split passes muster.
-- Coach's relationship. ?
-- Not a LT, not even a RT.

NE wants truly athletic O-linemen. If you look at the starters they have had in recent years:
-- Light, see above.
-- Mankins, see above.
-- Koppen, the least athletic of them all (5th round, #164). 4.56 ss, 8.26 3-c, his 10 split was very good.
-- Neal, world class wrestler.
-- Kaczur, see above ... replaced in line-up by Vollmer, see above.
-- NE's primary interior reserve last season, and nearly a starter for the full season, was Connolly (street free agent, 2005 UDFA via Jax). 4.54 ss, 7.67 3-c, 28.5" v, 1.83 10 split, four year starter at LT for SE Missouri State.

Pouncey seems like a decent guard prospect (as sophomores I liked him better than his brother), and it's probably not wise to use shorts and t-shirt numbers to predict what NE will do; still, looking at the OL drafted over ten previous seasons:
-- The guys drafted in the first two rounds have been major athletic upgrades, who also happen to have been good technicians and versatile players in college.
-- College LT only in rounds one through three.
-- Light upgraded Greer holdovers.
-- Mankins upgraded a pretty good John Andruzzi.
-- Koppen replaced his heavyweight elder BC OC in an injury reshuffle, and hasn't relinquished the job since.
-- Neal replaced a journeyman veteran and looked like a rampaging wildebeest in space.
-- Kaczur upgraded an athletic Tom Ashworth in the run game.
-- Vollmer upgraded Kaczur.

Who does Pouncey upgrade? Not Koppen, he needs to be a better shotgun snapper, and let's not forget his lack of explosion as measured by the vertical jump, nor how Koppen was nearly one tenth of a second faster at changing directions which helps picking up blitzes inside. Not Kaczur, that pesky vertical jump explosion again, and the LT background.

If Pouncey was a mid-round projection I think NE would be interested, as a mid-first? I don't see it.

 

[manxman2601]

You're kidding, right??]

The Panthers traded NOTHING, got 10 ~ TEN ~ players back ~ that IS how Drafts work, now!! ~ And you're still defending the position that, somehow, adding TEN players for NOTHING was detrimental to the team?? Good luck with THAT!!

OK, I'm at a loss. They add ten more players but lose seven more games, but all is well in Panther land because they got ten whole players. Sorry, not seeing it. The judgement on whether or not a team is improved is in my mind based upon their win/loss record, not their ability to accumulate players (at a cost btw of screwing themselves in this draft with no second rounder).

But all this is immaterial. What's important is that hopefully I'll settle myself in front of the telly for the first playoff game against the Jets and I'll watch Ingram pound the ball up the middle behind the blocking of Pouncey, I'll be comforted by the fact the Brady is fresher because Ingram has shared a greater load of the offensive plays, and If I'm really lucky, Ellis and Elmore will get a sack each. and if that happens and we win, then I'll have considered this draft a success (regardless of how many players we've added )

 

[jukes]

Why when they can just run with ben jarvis? i think nowadays u can still find value with running backs in the middle rounds, I dont exactly see the point in drafting ingram when he isnt a huge need more of a luxury

 

[Off The Grid]

OK, I'm at a loss.

Evidently.

All I was doing was pointing out the incredibly simple and obvious fact that your suggestion that "...the question any fan should apply to a Patriot draft is, Does the draft make the Patriot team a better one?" is so far off base that it is UNFATHOMABLE.

We've got 6 Picks in the top 100.

How in the name of GOD can we FAIL to improve our team??

"...the question any fan should apply to a Patriot draft is, Does the draft make the Patriot team a better one?"

Those are YOUR words, pal.

So by YOUR criteria, if we drafted, say, Ryan Pugh with #17, that would be a great thing because ""...the question any fan should apply to a Patriot draft is, Does the draft make the Patriot team a better one?" RIGHT??

 

[manxman2601]

Perhaps you are.

Ingram is a fine RB, but I don't see RB as the best position value in the first round, at least not for NE. The only reason it's not last (in general) are the kickers and longsnapper.

Why. They didn't feel that way in '06. Was a cornerback the best position value last year, or was it that McCourty was the best player on the board last year? I think BB makes the determination that player A is more likely than player B to improve the team and picks player A accordingly. I'm prepared to here the argument that Ingram doesn't improve the team more than an undetermined player B, but as most boards have the draft, there's not many that will have the immediate impact that Ingram will have.

Who does Pouncey upgrade? Not Koppen, he needs to be a better shotgun snapper, and let's not forget his lack of explosion as measured by the vertical jump, nor how Koppen was nearly one tenth of a second faster at changing directions which helps picking up blitzes inside. Not Kaczur, that pesky vertical jump explosion again, and the LT background.

If Pouncey was a mid-round projection I think NE would be interested, as a mid-first? I don't see it.

How about Connolly or whomever suits up for Mankins when he cries to his agent. you make a good argument as to why BB might not rank Pouncey as highly as almost EVERY other pundit out there who think Pouncey is the best interior lineman available and a lock for the first round. It's true BB does view things differently, but even he watches the same game tape that the pundits watch and sees the talent they see. And even he probably recognises that Mike had the same upbringing and coaching as his brother who went on to be a first year success in the NFL. So if you are right and BB places more emphasis on measurables than actual performance and intangibles, then you are probably right. Pouncey woudn't carry a first round grade and that would make this mock weaker. But your supporting evidence was an extremely small sample size, good and interesting though it was, but I would need to see further evidence that Pouncey wouldn't carry a first round grade for the Patriots.

If on the day, Pouncey is available at #28 and BB trades out of the round, then you will have absolutely been right and I promise that I will come on and acknowledge it...if I remember (really lousy memory you know)

 

[manxman2601]

Evidently.

All I was doing was pointing out the incredibly simple and obvious fact that your suggestion that "...the question any fan should apply to a Patriot draft is, Does the draft make the Patriot team a better one?" is so far off base that it is UNFATHOMABLE.

We've got 6 Picks in the top 100.

How in the name of GOD can we FAIL to improve our team??



Those are YOUR words, pal.

So by YOUR criteria, if we drafted, say, Ryan Pugh with #17, that would be a great thing because ""...the question any fan should apply to a Patriot draft is, Does the draft make the Patriot team a better one?" RIGHT??

So you want to go another round?

No, drafting a JAG center @17 would not improve the team one iota because he most likely wouldn't see a single snap all season and therefore there would be no measurable gain for the Pats. That's M-E-A-S-U-R-A-B-L-E (feel free to look it up ). On the other hand, I see Ingram as an improvement over BJGE. I was impressed with him last season, don't get me wrong, and they are similar players. But Ingram is that much more shiftier. Let's say that Ingram was a straight up replacement rather than a compliment and had the same amount of carries next season. It's not unreasonable to suppose that the shiftier back might, on half those carries, gain an extra yard on average. In that case, there is a measurable improvement, one that has a knock on effect. A third and eight becomes a third and six, the defense spends a little less time on the pitch, Brady might make 40 less throws over the course of a season (a whole game of rest), Ingrams shiftiness might make a 3rd and goal reception into a touchdown just once during the season that BJGE couldn't and so on. All those are improvements - drafting someone to sit on the practice squad isn't.

Case in point. In the last draft, we drafted Ted Larsen, subsequently waived him and he went on to start for the Bucs. Whilst our drafting improved the Bucs, please explain how the mere act of drafting Larsen improved our team as you are suggesting.

I call Game-Set-Match!!!

 

[andrewgarrr]

As would I. Good points.

I'm increasingly intrigued by Brother Maine's theme, regarding the parallels between the careers of Mike Vrabel and Rob Ninkovich.

Ninkovich increasingly strikes me as an ~ increasingly ~ effective Blue Collar guy who does him home work, works his @$$ off, and will, in the end, turn every last one of us into fans...Very much in the mold of Troy Brown, Teddy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Lawyer Milloy, and, of course Tom Brady. Furthermore, he is a clearly instinctive guy, with excellent diagnostic skills, who I believe ~ even while consistently and reliably sticking to his assignments ~ is going to be making a LOT of big plays for us in the future.

There are a lot of guys on that D from whom we have good reason ~ due to their talents, their work ethics, and the effect that a full year's experience, playing full time in the system, show us is historically very beneficial ~ to expect a BIG jump in Impact, next year:

Ron Brace.

Brandon Deaderick.

Jermaine Cunningham.

Rob Ninkovich.

Brandon Spikes.

Devon McCourty.

Darius Butler.

Pretty exciting stuff, if you ask me.

Hopefully the lock-out is over soon and a new CBA is agreed upon before the draft. These rookies, 2nd year, and 3rd year players really need the OTAs and mini-camps to step their game up and contribute more seriously to this team!

 

[andrewgarrr]

Whether you're a fan of it or not, I don't really care and If you actually read what I typed above, the fourth round pick is just a rough estimate of what they can get, they can probably get more. PAY ATTENTION LOSER.

So why post a thread? Why respond to people? Why continue posting on the same forum? Why respond to this comment?

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Pick #17- Mark Ingram, RB: He's the best player available and I just get the feeling the Patriots really covet Ingram and he's the best value pick for the Patriots at 17 for a guy who has the talent to be a top 5 pick.

Pick #28- Mike Pouncey, G: Pouncey could be gone to the Giants before the Patriots pick but I have the Giants picking Anthony Castonzo instead. If Pouncey is here, then like Ingram, I just don't see the Patriots passing on the best guard in this draft. If Pouncey is gone before this pick, I see them trading down. I don't see them trading the pick if Pouncey is still here.

Pick #33- Kenrick Ellis, DT: I see the Patriots trading down here with a team looking for a QB but I still have them taking Ellis wherever they pick in the second round. Some teams will be scared of by Ellis' character concerns, the Patriots will not. Ellis has first round talent and is just a physical specimen, Haloti Ngata type defensive lineman. He can play anywhere on this Defensive Line and I see the Patriots all over him in the second.

Pick #60- I have them trading this pick away for an additional 4th rounder.

Pick #74- James Carpenter, OT: This would be a very good pick for the Patriots. One way or another they're going to take an OT in this draft. James Carpenter from Alabama is a very solid option here. He can play on the left or right depending on where they want to put Vollmer. They need to just let Matt Light go, I see him miss to many blocks and gets overpowered too often.

Pick #92- Ricky Elmore, DE/LB: Rob Ninkovich could be the second coming of Mike Vrabel. Like Ninkovich, Vrabel didn't really start producing til his age 26/27 season. Maybe they give Ninkovich another year to improve from his productive season and become a staple in the linebacker corps. I still see them though taking a linebacker fairly early, preferably a pass rushing specialist. Banta-Cain couldn't get it done last year and Moore is a question mark. Elmore would be a great fit for the Patriots who was much more productive than the other linebacker getting all the attention from Arizona, Brooks Reed. Elmore has the size to be a linebacker in the patriots 3-4 and was a very productive pass rusher at Arizona, racking up 21 sacks in two years.

Pick #125- Jaiquawn Jarrett, S: Jarrett is just too good of a player to pass up here. Even if Meriweather is still here, they could always use more talent and depth at safety.

Additional fourth rounder- Brandon Fusco, G: With Mankins future up in the air and Connelly a mediocre at best guard on the other side, I see them taking at least two interior linemen in this draft and Fusco is a guy they've been looking at heavily.

Pick #159- Chris Matthews, WR: I don't see them taking a wide receiver early this year which is way Chris Matthews makes perfect sense here. Let Taylor Price and Brandon Tate develop again this year and see what they can do. Matthews at 6'5" 219 lbs. is another option they can have if either of those two can't get it done.

If THIS turned out to be the Patriots draft, I would go into such fits that the draft day tirade I launched into two years ago (and I'm still right about the lack of a pass rusher) would seem like a mild hiccup.

What is so special about Ingram? Is he bigger than BJGE? No. Is he faster than BJGE? No. Does he fumble more than BJGE? Yes (three time in one bowl game). I fail to see where he is anything close to an elite back. History has shown that you can find a more than servicable RB anywhere in the draft. This year is no different, Delone Carter from Syracuse is in the BJGE mold, Deon Lewis from Pitt could be a Curtis Martin clone, great sophmore season slowed by injuries after that. Hell if BB had listened to me last year and spent one of those 7th round picks on Lagarret Blount we would even be having this conversation. But needless to say, RB is not a need, and certainly nothing they need at #17.

If the Pats don't go pass rusher at #17, I might actual blow a gasket. Although I could see the logic in drafting a LT if they do not plan or can not count on Light coming back.

DT, you do realize that the Pats actual don't have a DT position? Vince is an incredible athlete and he needs to go back to the nose. But what the Pats really need, is a OLB, and an elite pass rusher that you have to account for, not just another JAG like Ninkovich. Ninkovich is a fine back-up/special teams player, but if you are counting on him to draw double teams and open up pass rush lanes, you are going to be sadly dissappointed.

I don't even want to touch trade a second rounder for another 4th rounder debate, but needless to say, I think that the Pats shoudl move up in this draft and take a few elite players. #17 & #60 will get you very close to #10 where hopefully QUinn will still be on the board. The Cowboys are at 9 and the redskins are at 10, both of whom want to trade down, so an extra second rounder would most likely by all that would be needed.

I'm not really sold on Pouncey either, his brother is good because he is a center, he would have to play guard (he can't shotgun snap), and I don't think that he is that much better than three or four other guards in the draft. I personally like the kid Moffit from Wisconsin, mean and nasty, that is what a lineman should be.

If Tully banta-Cain makes the team this year, then the Pats are goiing no where, again.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Why. They didn't feel that way in '06. Was a cornerback the best position value last year, or was it that McCourty was the best player on the board last year? I think BB makes the determination that player A is more likely than player B to improve the team and picks player A accordingly. I'm prepared to here the argument that Ingram doesn't improve the team more than an undetermined player B, but as most boards have the draft, there's not many that will have the immediate impact that Ingram will have.
Indeed sir, Ingram very well might be the best player available, that does not make him the best choice for NE. Out of curiosity, would you consider the 2006 selection a huge success, a bust, or somewhere in the middle shaded towards disappointing? I know my hopes had been set on Jones-Drew in the second, and I'm a Maroney defender.

How about Connolly or whomever suits up for Mankins when he cries to his agent. you make a good argument as to why BB might not rank Pouncey as highly as almost EVERY other pundit out there who think Pouncey is the best interior lineman available and a lock for the first round. It's true BB does view things differently, but even he watches the same game tape that the pundits watch and sees the talent they see. And even he probably recognises that Mike had the same upbringing and coaching as his brother who went on to be a first year success in the NFL. So if you are right and BB places more emphasis on measurables than actual performance and intangibles, then you are probably right. Pouncey woudn't carry a first round grade and that would make this mock weaker. But your supporting evidence was an extremely small sample size, good and interesting though it was, but I would need to see further evidence that Pouncey wouldn't carry a first round grade for the Patriots.

If on the day, Pouncey is available at #28 and BB trades out of the round, then you will have absolutely been right and I promise that I will come on and acknowledge it...if I remember (really lousy memory you know)

-- Pundits were stunned when NE drafted McCourtey.
-- Pundits were stunned when NE drafted Mankins.
-- Pundits were stunned when NE drafted Vollmer.
-- Pundits were stunned when NE drafted Mayo at #10.

Whom did pundits agree with?
-- Maroney
-- Meriweather

The book isn't closed on Meriweather, sadly for Maroney ...

I'm a skeptic when it comes to pundit rankings as they pertain to NE. I don't say Pouncey couldn't play for NE, what I do say is he does not appear to have the athleticism NE drafts in rounds one and two. He might be a good fit for Pittsburgh, their LG was ranked ahead of Mankins in 2005 - Pit took him in round six. They obviously need an upgrade.

No need for any mea culpas after the draft, we're here having fun discussing our team and how to make it better, none of us has a passing grade for our prognostications from prior drafts - happily, NE isn't paying us to get it right!

 

[IllegalContact]

What the HELL???



Is anybody ELSE having a Bill Lee for Stan Papi flashback with this one??

I'm actually having a steve lyons psycho moment

 

[DW Toys]

Pick #17- Mark Ingram, RB: He's the best player available and I just get the feeling the Patriots really covet Ingram and he's the best value pick for the Patriots at 17 for a guy who has the talent to be a top 5 pick.

Pick #28- Mike Pouncey, G: Pouncey could be gone to the Giants before the Patriots pick but I have the Giants picking Anthony Castonzo instead. If Pouncey is here, then like Ingram, I just don't see the Patriots passing on the best guard in this draft. If Pouncey is gone before this pick, I see them trading down. I don't see them trading the pick if Pouncey is still here.

Pick #33- Kenrick Ellis, DT: I see the Patriots trading down here with a team looking for a QB but I still have them taking Ellis wherever they pick in the second round. Some teams will be scared of by Ellis' character concerns, the Patriots will not. Ellis has first round talent and is just a physical specimen, Haloti Ngata type defensive lineman. He can play anywhere on this Defensive Line and I see the Patriots all over him in the second.

Pick #60- I have them trading this pick away for an additional 4th rounder.

Pick #74- James Carpenter, OT: This would be a very good pick for the Patriots. One way or another they're going to take an OT in this draft. James Carpenter from Alabama is a very solid option here. He can play on the left or right depending on where they want to put Vollmer. They need to just let Matt Light go, I see him miss to many blocks and gets overpowered too often.

Pick #92- Ricky Elmore, DE/LB: Rob Ninkovich could be the second coming of Mike Vrabel. Like Ninkovich, Vrabel didn't really start producing til his age 26/27 season. Maybe they give Ninkovich another year to improve from his productive season and become a staple in the linebacker corps. I still see them though taking a linebacker fairly early, preferably a pass rushing specialist. Banta-Cain couldn't get it done last year and Moore is a question mark. Elmore would be a great fit for the Patriots who was much more productive than the other linebacker getting all the attention from Arizona, Brooks Reed. Elmore has the size to be a linebacker in the patriots 3-4 and was a very productive pass rusher at Arizona, racking up 21 sacks in two years.

Pick #125- Jaiquawn Jarrett, S: Jarrett is just too good of a player to pass up here. Even if Meriweather is still here, they could always use more talent and depth at safety.

Additional fourth rounder- Brandon Fusco, G: With Mankins future up in the air and Connelly a mediocre at best guard on the other side, I see them taking at least two interior linemen in this draft and Fusco is a guy they've been looking at heavily.

Pick #159- Chris Matthews, WR: I don't see them taking a wide receiver early this year which is way Chris Matthews makes perfect sense here. Let Taylor Price and Brandon Tate develop again this year and see what they can do. Matthews at 6'5" 219 lbs. is another option they can have if either of those two can't get it done.

Hard work. Thank you for your personal thoughts on this Draft. Don't let them grind you. These picks are not my cup of tea but not disastrous either. I question the move of the trade as well but you have your reasons. The point is "your reasons". These are for fun as is this forum.

The big thing is that BB will piss off someone here when he does this Draft. As you know by now I am not a great fan about wasting every pick on kids that have a 17% chance of making it. If there is an ideal player available by trade that you can use a pick as "wampum" to get said player who has better than an 80% chance of making it here if chosen from his actual current NFL production like a Fitzgerald, I play that card. Yes, sometimes more expensive, ....but you get what you pay for. Drafting is like E-Bay. Looks good in the pics and the price was right for now so you pressed the "Buy it now" button, but not so good when it arrived.

I like the Draft but prefer a mix of FAs and Trades to actually not have to wait the prerequisite three years in most cases, for said prospect to bloom. Let's ask TB about that time frame. I want to play for 2011 not 2014.

We are only 9th rated at this Draft game anyway. If you look at BBs swap-a-ramas the results have been a mixed bag but we all take that as part of what he does and accept it. Cousins it ain't perfect yet the scribes and media humor him as a swami. Last years Draft was excellent. They don't all go his way. Look at the last five? Yet still if this was his Draft day results above, the people on you now would justify these picks quickly. Kind of funny.

That is part of my point and the other is unless he trades up he should play out this Draft because it is in the sweet spot of the needs of this Team. How often does a Draft fall that way? Trading for the sake of Trading this year makes no sense. It's like going to an All girls high school dance where everyone of the babes is supernice looking and there is a good chance you will get lucky but with all your heart you are wanting to go down the street to the new All girls Catholic high school to their dance just to see if they might be better just in case. Moral of the story: Bill, don't always listen to what they say about Catholic girls. Think Cosby, Stills, Nash and Young (riddle?), Bill.

DW Toys

 

[IllegalContact]

I've seen worse mocks, but not many......

still no pass rush

 

[tricktak]

UPADATED

#17- Mark Ingram, RB: Say what you want about Ingram but this offense lacks a legit big play guy and running backs usually come right into the NFL and flat out produce.

#28- Mike Pouncey, G

#33 (or trade down)- Allen Bailey, DE/DT or Martez Wilson, LB: They've been looking at Allen Bailey heavily and just seems like the type of player they would add. He participated in linebacker drills at the combine and the patriots could view him in a Willie McGinest "elephant" type role. He's dropped his weight all the way down to 275 as well. Martez Wilson might be the safer pick but Bailey has more upside

#60- traded for a 4th, 3rd and a 3rd round pick in next year's draft. I could see a team like San Diego, who have a lot of draft picks this year, trading with us to grab a guy they really like.

#74- James Carpenter, OT: Chris Hairston from Clemson is a possibilty here too if Carpeneter is gone.

#92- Kenrick Ellis, NT: If he's still available here, they take him for sure.

additional third rounder: Johnny Patrick, CB: Possibility that he's still here in which case I think the Patriots would take him, they take a corner every year.

#125- Jaiquawn Jarrett, S: One of the better players available

Additional fourth rounder: Ricky Stanzi, QB: I don't think they wait til the 5th, they would probably take him here, if they are high on him.

#159- Brandon Fusco, G

#193- Chris Matthews, WR: They take someone else here instead if they believe Matthews will go undrafted. Andre Holmes from Hillsdale is another possibility here too. I aslo think that Welker will play much better this year, his injury was similar to Brady's and it took Brady a good year to go back to being the dominant quarterback he is. I think Welker will be back to catching 100 balls this year and make more big plays. Plus, they still have Tate and Price so wide receiver isn't a huge need especially when Hernandez basically counts as another receiver as well and oh yeah, Big Gronk.

 

[Dufflebagz]

UPADATED

#17- Mark Ingram, RB: Say what you want about Ingram but this offense lacks a legit big play guy and running backs usually come right into the NFL and flat out produce.

#28- Mike Pouncey, G

#33 (or trade down)- Allen Bailey, DE/DT or Martez Wilson, LB: They've been looking at Allen Bailey heavily and just seems like the type of player they would add. He participated in linebacker drills at the combine and the patriots could view him in a Willie McGinest "elephant" type role. He's dropped his weight all the way down to 275 as well. Martez Wilson might be the safer pick but Bailey has more upside

#60- traded for a 4th, 3rd and a 3rd round pick in next year's draft. I could see a team like San Diego, who have a lot of draft picks this year, trading with us to grab a guy they really like.

#74- James Carpenter, OT: Chris Hairston from Clemson is a possibilty here too if Carpeneter is gone.

#92- Kenrick Ellis, NT: If he's still available here, they take him for sure.

additional third rounder: Johnny Patrick, CB: Possibility that he's still here in which case I think the Patriots would take him, they take a corner every year.

#125- Jaiquawn Jarrett, S: One of the better players available

Additional fourth rounder: Ricky Stanzi, QB: I don't think they wait til the 5th, they would probably take him here, if they are high on him.

#159- Brandon Fusco, G

#193- Chris Matthews, WR: They take someone else here instead if they believe Matthews will go undrafted. Andre Holmes from Hillsdale is another possibility here too. I aslo think that Welker will play much better this year, his injury was similar to Brady's and it took Brady a good year to go back to being the dominant quarterback he is. I think Welker will be back to catching 100 balls this year and make more big plays. Plus, they still have Tate and Price so wide receiver isn't a huge need especially when Hernandez basically counts as another receiver as well and oh yeah, Big Gronk.

This is better.....although I'll never like Ingram at #17.

 

[MaineMan]

Why when they can just run with ben jarvis? i think nowadays u can still find value with running backs in the middle rounds, I dont exactly see the point in drafting ingram when he isnt a huge need more of a luxury

For me, it's a question of resources. After O-line and QB, you have five guys out of eleven to either run the ball or catch passes. To require a defense to "cover everything", ideally you might want an RB who's a threat to break a run for big yardage even out of an offensive set that includes four superior pass-catchers (even better if the RB is also an excellent pass catcher). These would be "classic" early-down, Q1-Q3 "feature backs"; guys who you can still count on to make a big running play in Q4 when you're down by a score. However, RBs who can do this consistently are pretty rare, even those running behind very good run-blocking offensive lines. I'll call this type of RB "Class A".

Most RBs need at least one extra accomplished run-blocker some percentage of the time to get started through the LoS or to get around the corner. Unless you have extraordinary TEs or FBs, this extra blocker necessarily takes one of your better pass catchers out of the set and gives the defense maybe one less guy to worry about in coverage. But, still, that can be okay IF the RB in question has the level of burst and elusiveness that allows him to do great things once that extra blocker enables him to get to (relatively) open field. And play-action is still a legitimate threat for a defense to worry about because there are still three (hypothetically) superior pass-catching WRs on the field. I'll call this level of RB "Class B", which would encompass a wide range of talent - from those guy who need one extra blocker less of the time to those who need one almost all the time.

And then there's guys like BGE. BGE seemed to need TWO extra blockers just to get started most of the time (one of them Crumpler, who is certainly NOT a superior pass-catcher anymore). Even so, BGE doesn't appear to have the burst/elusiveness to do much after he gets through the LoS or TO the corner. Sure, he can run over a guy here and there, but he provides a merely adequate ground game at the "cost" of having only two superior pass-catchers in the set (offset somewhat by Gronk being one of the TEs). This tends to telegraph to the defense when you're more likely to run than pass, de-legitimizes the threat of play-action and leaves the defense having only two superior pass-catchers to cover. This would be "Class C".

"Class D" would be the guys who can't do much no matter how much extra blocking help you give them.

So, that's my take on you first question. Yes we can, and SHOULD, try to improve on BGE. This is not to say "replace him". BGE, to me, is a nearly perfect Q4 back - the guy you'd use to pound the ball in Q4 to take time off the clock and protect a lead while giving your feature back a breather (and protecting him from injury risk), while not worrying a whole lot about fooling a defense with play-action (such a situation sorta does that for you).

The second question, which you've only implied, is what "Class" does Ingram fit into? Is he really a "Class A" who might be worthy of a first round pick? I have no clue. Many say, "YES!" while many others disagree. Maybe he's merely a very good "Class B" who might be worth a 2nd round look since he'd still probably provide a better tactical ground game requiring fewer resources "borrowed" from the passing game. But then, Leshoure, Ryan Williams or someone else might also be a good to very good "Class B" guy. And, of course, in every draft it seems that one or two of the 15-20 RBs taken after #64 turns out to be good "Class B" guys, not including UDFAs (where the odds are realistically something like 1 in 30, though it seems much better sometimes). [SIDEBAR: Interestingly enough, historically, the odds of coming up with a "Class B" diamond in the rough have actually been HIGHER in round 4 than in round 3. My only explanation would be that round three is where teams end up taking RBs who've been hyped as "hidden gems" that turn out not to be while round four has guys who haven't been hyped.]

The next question is, of course, "Do we have sufficient resources in this draft to bolster both lines, upgrade OLB and maybe nickel/slot CB, AND try to get a very good Class B running back, maybe in the 2nd?" Actually, I think we might this time around.

 

[manxman2601]

Yeah, not TOO many folks think trading #60 for a 4th Rounder is too brilliant!! I guess you're the only one who sees the WISDOM in that!!

Yes, trading #60 for a 4th Rounder is a GREAT idea!!

I've tried to enlighten you as to the error of your ways, but it continues to elude you, my friend, so I'm going to have to cut you loose.

Good luck with...that.

I've already commented that I didn't think the trade wasparticularly wel thought out. In fact all I ever said was that I liked the first round element of the mock and I'm not sure grabbing the top O/L and top RB in the draft, even if you think that better options are avaiable in the first, is ever going to be a disaster.

You pointed out that with six picks in the first 100, how can this draft be anything but a success!! I agree completely. Whichever way the wind blows on the 28th - 30th, the Patriots will have had a good draft.

 

[manxman2601]

-- Pundits were stunned when NE drafted McCourtey.
-- Pundits were stunned when NE drafted Mankins.
-- Pundits were stunned when NE drafted Vollmer.
-- Pundits were stunned when NE drafted Mayo at #10.

Whom did pundits agree with?
-- Maroney
-- Meriweather

The book isn't closed on Meriweather, sadly for Maroney ...

I'm a skeptic when it comes to pundit rankings as they pertain to NE. I don't say Pouncey couldn't play for NE, what I do say is he does not appear to have the athleticism NE drafts in rounds one and two. He might be a good fit for Pittsburgh, their LG was ranked ahead of Mankins in 2005 - Pit took him in round six. They obviously need an upgrade.

No need for any mea culpas after the draft, we're here having fun discussing our team and how to make it better, none of us has a passing grade for our prognostications from prior drafts - happily, NE isn't paying us to get it right!

You are absolutely right that BB and the pundits have very different draft boards. I'm happy to ackowledge that you may be right on Puncey, you taught me something about the way the Patriots view O/linemen for which I'm grateful.

I'm a big fan of a good running game, something we've not really had during BB's tenure. That's the reason why I wouldn't object to the drafting of Ingram - I just like to watch quality running week in, week out.

There may be better first round options in the first, in fact when I do my own mocks, I almost never put Ingram to the Pats. I just won't be disappointed if it actually happens.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

-- Pundits were stunned when NE drafted McCourtey.
-- Pundits were stunned when NE drafted Mankins.
-- Pundits were stunned when NE drafted Vollmer.
-- Pundits were stunned when NE drafted Mayo at #10.

Whom did pundits agree with?
-- Maroney
-- Meriweather

The book isn't closed on Meriweather, sadly for Maroney ...

This is an excellent point BOR.

BB is going to follow his draft board and he is not afraid to take guys that he feels project the best into his system.

And it is one reason why even though I would love to see us draft a Wilkerson and/or Taylor in the first round, I keep my mind open to the fact that we could wind up with an Ingram or/and Costanza instead.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

You are absolutely right that BB and the pundits have very different draft boards. I'm happy to ackowledge that you may be right on Puncey, you taught me something about the way the Patriots view O/linemen for which I'm grateful.

I'm a big fan of a good running game, something we've not really had during BB's tenure. That's the reason why I wouldn't object to the drafting of Ingram - I just like to watch quality running week in, week out.

There may be better first round options in the first, in fact when I do my own mocks, I almost never put Ingram to the Pats. I just won't be disappointed if it actually happens.

I won't kick if NE gets Ingram, if BB drafts him it's because he's the best player for the team in the minds of people one heck of a lot smarter and better informed than I am! To keep my mind from tripping the dementia fantastic any earlier then nature intended, I try to keep myself occupied with puzzles I can enjoy - like who might NE like and what makes that kid a better fit for NE then the other one. Beats watching the evening news and prime time soap operas. Besides, one day I might get the right player in the right round, that ought to stop my heart on a high note!