I’m really torn on the DE’s in this years draft. I love Watts motor, work ethic, pass rush and intensity. In fact I love everything about him except for his fit in our system. I just don’t think he has the bulk, technique or discipline to be a two gap DE. He is a gap shooter and a penetrator, and a very good one at that, but I haven’t seen anything to suggest that he could fit as a base DE in our system. I don’t think he has the strength, discipline or technique to take on double teams, control the B and C gaps, stack and shed and make plays against the run. He generates pressure by shooting gaps rather than collapsing the pocket which doesn’t really fit with our system. I think he would be a perfect fit for a 1-gap 3-4 like Dallas or Houston, but I wouldn’t be comfortable trading up for him, which is likely what is required. He would be a beast as a situational pass rusher with the hope of developing against the run, but I’m not comfortable spending a 1st rounder on a guy like that, especially with the prospects of no OTA's or mini camps. I feel the same way about Cam Jordan who I also don’t see as a fit at DE in a two gap system. I know there has been some talk about moving both of these guys to the elephant OLB role, but once again I don’t know if I would take that risk in the 1st round.
I think by far the best two fits system wise are Cameron Hayward and Mohammed Wilkerson, who each have question marks of their own. I think Wilkerson is the safer of these two because I think at minimum he will be a contributor. But I also think his ceiling is a lot lower. I think he is more of a LE, who can be a very solid player and a good run stuffer, but he will be a very limited pass rusher and I don’t see him being anything special. I think he would be a solid guy in the late 1st, but I wouldn’t take him any higher because I don’t know how much of an upgrade he will be over the guys we already have, especially because he is best suited to the LE position. If he is available at 28 I would definitely take a long look at him, but I don’t think he gets that far. I currently have him mocked to SD at 18.
Hayward on the other hand has the skills and potential to be an All-Pro DE. He is a great run stuffer, shows the ability to stack and shed, and fits well into the two-gap system. He has also shown promise as a pass rusher when he is really motivated. However, this is where the problem lies. Hayward has been extremely inconsistent, especially against lesser competition in the past 2 years. He seems to step up huge in big games, but disappears in others. This means that he obviously has the talent, so there is some other issue. Everything I’ve read from coaches and teammates talk about his great work ethic and how hard he works. If this is true I think the only way of explaining this inconsistency is a lack of motivation. That’s definitely an issue and a big red flag. However, if BB believes he can motivate him we could get a steal.
After his sugar bowl performance it seemed as if Hayward had skyrocketed back into the middle of the 1st round. But after his injury and time for scouts to re-evaluate his tape, he is falling back into the late 1st/early 2nd, where I think he belongs. When you take into account the depth of the DL in this draft, as well as the possible run on QB’s and OT’s at the end of the first round of this draft, I think it’s very likely that Heyward will be available in early round 2. My preference would be to make a small trade down from 28 into the early 2nd, with a team like Buffalo moving up for an OT or Cincinnati moving up for Ponder or Dalton. I would prefer this option because we can pick up an extra 4th round pick and still draft Heyward without using the 33rd pick. I think the 33rd pick has so much value that I would prefer to trade it and use 34 or 35 to take Heyward.
This would be my preference because we get a guy that’s a great fit for the system for a reasonable value, while still having 17 to get an impact player. Ideally I would trade up to around 10 and get either Da’Quan Bowers or Julio Jones, or make a smaller trade up to 12 or 13 and get Robert Quinn. Hayward wouldn’t offer as much value as a situational pass rusher in sub packages, but that is where I think a guy like Da’Quan Bowers who can play as a 3-tech or 5-tech in passing situations would offer more value than the other OLB’s in this draft. We could then look at a specialist interior pass rusher like Cedrick Thornton in the 5th/6th round to groom for a Mike Wright role. This way we get an athletic DE that can stop the run and collapse the pocket when required, an elephant OLB that can set the edge, rush the passer and play as a pass rushing DL in sub packages, and a late round situational pass rusher. We also still have whatever we got from trading down from 33, two 3rds and two 4ths to add O-line depth, a RB and maybe some risk/reward players such as Kenrick Ellis, Greg Romeus and Deunta Williams.
