An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec. 6th

[darrelujah]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

Woodhead IS an integral part of our offense. He has 574 all purpose yards, 344 rushing (at a 5.4 clip) and 230 receiving (at a 9.6 clip). This is also in only 9 games.

Green-Ellis has 627 yards rushing at a 4.3 clip with 9 TDs. While I'm not saying he's better than either of those guys (although he is playing better than LT in the last few weeks) he is having a very nice year in a passing offense.

So, will you admit you are wrong about your statements or not?

Edit: sorry i thought you said woodhead still is not an integral part of the pats offense. my fault

LT - 741 yds rushing
Shonn Greene - 575 yds rushing
Brad Smith - 216 yds rushing

~970 yards rushing vs 1,500+ rushing. OH I FORGOT, the yards per carry is so good for Woodhead and BJGE at 4.x per carry. Brad Smith is averaging 8 yards per carry. The reason Rudy and BJGE average a decent chunk is that teams sell out against the Patriots pass. On the other hand, teams stack up against the Jets run.. Woodhead would be lucky to average 2 ypc if he stayed in green. Touchdowns are a wash I think. If Brady throws it to the 2 yard line and BJGE runs it in.. that's not a great testament to his skills as a runner. I like lawfirm but to say he's better than LT & SG means you're high or stupid.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

LT - 741 yds rushing
Shonn Greene - 575 yds rushing
Brad Smith - 216 yds rushing

~970 yards rushing vs 1,500+ rushing. OH I FORGOT, the yards per carry is so good for Woodhead and BJGE at 4.x per carry. Brad Smith is averaging 8 yards per carry. The reason Rudy and BJGE average a decent chunk is that teams sell out against the Patriots pass. On the other hand, teams stack up against the Jets run.. Woodhead would be lucky to average 2 ypc if he stayed in green. Touchdowns are a wash I think. If Brady throws it to the 2 yard line and BJGE runs it in.. that's not a great testament to his skills as a runner. I like lawfirm but to say he's better than LT & SG means you're high or stupid.

Is he better than LT no, is he better than Shonn Greene? Statistically yes but its pretty much even.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

First some opinions about differences between week 2 and now:

A) Santonio Holmes as a receiving threat: How will the Patriots deal with him?

They will cover him just like any other receiver. If he is looking to be having a good day they will swing two guys his way. Pats will play the receivers tough over the middle. Better hope your guys don't get alligator arms cos Chung will be bringing the pain.

B) A 100% Darrelle Revis: Who will he cover and can he be as effective as he has been recently? Revis has held Greg Jennings, Andre Johnson, Calvin "Megatron" Johnson, and Terrell Owens to 61 yards total. Will Tom Brady be afraid to throw in his direction?

Doesn't matter. The Pats are a multi-option offense this year. Shut down one guy, Brady will throw to the next open guy. Tell me can Revis cover a wideout and our TEs at the same time? He's just one player.

C)Calvin Pace as a pass rusher/run stoper: He missed the first 4 games of the season. How will his presence in this game help with the pass rush/run game?

Who? You'd know better than me about this one.

D) O-Line improvement: Jets had a 2nd year player starting in only his second game at RG (Matt Slauson). The Patriots had 3 sacks that game. That has only happened 1 other time this season (Hou). Part of that is Mark Sanchez's ability to escape the rush and still make plays. Will a team that's currently 21's in sacks be able to get constant pressure on the QB? Will they be able to contain Sanchez once/if he escapes the pocket?

The Jets barely have more sacks than the Pats and they have the 12th ranked offense in points scored vs the Pats 1st ranked in points scored. I think the Jets defense needs to be more worried about Brady than the Pats are worried about Sanchez.

Besides said differences between week 2 and now...there are some other things I wanna see:

1) Sumthin's gotta give: Either Tom Brady's 25 straight (regular season) home wins will cease or the Jets current 8 straight (regular season) road winning streak cease. Jets are a better road team than home team anyway, winning 11 of the last 15 games on the road including the playoffs.

You said it yourself, Brady is nearly unbeatable at home. History tells us that.

2) Danny's impact: Will Danny Woodhead and the Patriot running game have an impact in the game vs the Jets? The stats say 'no' he would not. The Jets are the NFL's 4th best rush defense: The Patriots have faced two teams ranked higher: The Chargers (3rd) and the Steelers (1st). They both held the Patriots rushing attack under 100+ yards.

Woodhead wasn't even with the Pats for the first game of the matchup so I don't see how you can say you think your D can shut him down. Bitter you let a good one get away?

3) Sumthin's gotta give part two: Tom Brady is on Fire. Noticed how I capitalized the F. 23 TD's/4 INT's/2703 passing yards. But he's only passed for 300 + yards twice...vs the Steelers and the Lions. The Jets are 12th in fewest passing YPG (210.6), allow the 4th worst QB rating (75.8), and is tops in the league in lowest completion percentage allowed by opposing QB's (50.3). They held Tom Brady to his 2nd lowest completion percentage this season (55.6), and his 2nd lowest QBR 72.5. Tom Brady has faced 4 teams this season that has allowed fewer passing yardage per game than the Jets. San Diego, Indy, Miami, Baltimore. In those 4 games vs those upper echelon passing defenses Tom has been sacked 11 of his 15 times this season and has thrown for under 200 yards passing in 3 of those games (SD, Miami, Indy).

If you're putting up 3 and 4 TD games and throwing the ball with such precision, what's not to like? Yup he had a bad 1st game against the Jets but know what? He's been playing red hot so again the pressure is on the Jets defense to stop the #1 offense in the NFL right now. That being the Pats offense.

4) Tom's two losses: They came vs. teams who run the ball well. Jets are 2nd in the league at rushing yards per game and the Cleveland Browns are 12th. They've faced other teams who run the ball well Minnesota (10th) and the Steelers (9th). The Patriots forced the Steelers to play catch-up after getting a huge lead in the game, therefore forcing them to abandon the run. While the rushing attack was able to get the better of the Minnesota and keep Adrian Peterson off the field. In the two games the Patriots lost they were out gained on the ground by 75 (NYJ) and 136 (Cle). Not only did they keep Tom Brady off the field, they eliminated any running threat and thereby putting more pressure on Tom Brady to be flawless.

Pats are one of the tougher teams in the league to run the ball against. Try running into the brick wall that is Wilfork and that falls right into the Pats gameplan.

5) Multifaceted threat: If you can either take away or match the one or two things that another team can do then you've got a good strategy/game plan. Belichick is a master of both. Problem is the Jets are very good at a lot of things and not GREAT any any one or two things. We all know this will be the best rushing offense the Pats will have faced all season. But what else is there? Well...the Jets avg 40.1 net yards punting (5th in the league) and are tied for the league lead with 26 punts killed inside the 20. They are 2nd in the league in kick return average at 26.9. All this adds up to winning the battle of field position. They are 9th in the league with 37 passing plays of 20+ yards and 6th in the league with 9 passing plays of 40+ yards, both ranking are higher than New England's, despite all the Mark Sanchez naysayers out there. The Jets have only allowed 1 300+ passing game all season (Chad Henne) and that was without Darrelle Revis.

What's your point? Moss punked Revis while he was in the game and did nothing when Revis was out. Frankly Revis' performance had little correlation to the Pats loss in the 1st matchup this season.

Quite frankly...The Patriots have not faced a team this season who is above average with regards to running the ball & defending the run & defending the pass & explosive pass plays with the punting/kicking to win the field position battle all rolled into one. Not to mention the Jets have the 4th best starting field position in the NFL. This is the best combination of offense, defense and special teams in the NFL. This is why I think the Jets will win by a touchdown next Monday.

Pats took out the Steelers and the Colts in back to back games. And the Ravens earlier in the season. The Jets have scraped by with wins against less than formidable teams in the past 3 weeks. I'm supposed to be impressed how? Name the other good teams the Jets have beat outside of the Pats? Exactly.

I predict Jets 27 - Patriots 20.

People want to Jump on the San Diego Chargers bandwagon...but of their 5 losses 3 of them were to teams under .500. Not me sir. Would rather barely win vs sub .500 teams than lose to them

I will be here all week, respectful, and would appreciate the same in return.

Reponses....comments...rebuttals?

Pats 31 Jets 21

It's going to be pretty close but the Pats have the better team. You might not have noticed but the Pats have gotten better since week 2. If it comes down to a shootout, Sanchez can't beat Brady. The Jets run game is a concern but it will be contained. Got anything else? I'll be here all week.

 

[Joker]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

Got anything else? I'll be here all week.

you forgot to tell them..try the veal...

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

I like lawfirm but to say he's better than LT & SG means you're high or stupid.

Wait...... you're either going to rely on stats, or you're not. If you're relying on stats, BJGE is better than Greene and Woodhead is better than Thomlinson. If you're going to pull the non-stat "couldn't make the roster" argument, Thomlinson was so washed up that the Chargers cut him even though they had a crappy running game without him.

 

[darrelujah]

People use stats to make black and white talking points most of the time and that's stupid. I put the stats in to combat his point but I'm not going to structure my entire view of a player based on some opportunistic numbers.

Maybe I can make my point differently. Sanchez's biggest criticism is his completion percentage under 60%, people always bring it up. Is that good? No. But what matters is context and application. I've seem every snap of every game Sanchez has played in. I don't need a calculator and a notepad to convince me he's improved and is on his way to becoming a good qb. I SEE it. I SAW him lead the team in clutch situations with the clock working against him to win games. He's young and has only started ~40 games since high school, I expect him to make mistakes that young qb's make.

Nothing is worse than finding stats that support an opinion while ignoring others that don't. Given enough time, people can go back and forth forever chronicling stupid numbers and averages that prove their point right. I know what I'm watching, I can tell if a player is playing well or not. Numbers dont tell the whole story.

 

[darrelujah]

To add: I think woodhead and bjge are good young players. Saying they're better than the Jets rushing corps because of ypc or TD is foolish. That's what I was getting at above

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

People use stats to make black and white talking points most of the time and that's stupid. I put the stats in to combat his point but I'm not going to structure my entire view of a player based on some opportunistic numbers.

Maybe I can make my point differently. Sanchez's biggest criticism is his completion percentage under 60%, people always bring it up. Is that good? No. But what matters is context and application. I've seem every snap of every game Sanchez has played in. I don't need a calculator and a notepad to convince me he's improved and is on his way to becoming a good qb. I SEE it. I SAW him lead the team in clutch situations with the clock working against him to win games. He's young and has only started ~40 games since high school, I expect him to make mistakes that young qb's make.

Nothing is worse than finding stats that support an opinion while ignoring others that don't. Given enough time, people can go back and forth forever chronicling stupid numbers and averages that prove their point right. I know what I'm watching, I can tell if a player is playing well or not. Numbers dont tell the whole story.

I SAW him blowing game after game, or at least not playing well, and getting bailed out by his defense (Cincinnati), mistakes by the other team when they were already in position to win (Cleveland), and the officials (Denver). I also SAW him look like an absolute joke against the Packers.

It's not that you can "tell" if a player is playing well, since Sanchez isn't doing that. It's that you're biased towards your favorite team's players and THINK they are playing well. Let me offer an opposing viewpoint as an example:

Playing like crap for most of the game, and then finally getting it together, or getting lucky, at the end is not "playing well", after all. It's playing well enough to win. There's a difference between those two things, and Sanchez has been mostly garbage in 4 of his past 5 games. The only exception would be the Lions game, and I didn't see much of that game save in highlights, but from what's been reported, the Jets would likely have lost that game if the Jets kicker hadn't gotten hurt, the Lions coach hadn't screwed up with time management (I bet that brought you some Herm Edwards flashbacks), or the officials hadn't called that weak personal foul on the LdT late hit.

At this point, since we're ignoring things like completion percentage, TD/INT ratios and the like, we're looking at point of view, rather than reliable facts.

 

[darrelujah]

I'm not going to waste my time then, I know your type. Your hatred for the Jets will cause you to view anything and everything Jets related with a tainted lens. You dont watch jet games, you watch the rundown on ESPN. In the Lions game, did you see the two phantom personal fouls the Jets got for legal hits? Or when the referees took 20 seconds to rule a TD run at the goal line that took a clock stoppage away from the jets? (in relation to the 2 min warning). the personal foul on LT helps but its not a dealbreaker, there was still considerable time for the jets to gain that yardage.

Your problem is the same as I brought up with the stats, you only use the bits that benefit your argument. Guess what? I SAW SANCHEZ OUTPLAY TOM GAYDY in week 2. His stats were much better. Herp derp Brady sucks Lola

 

[darrelujah]

You can look at any close game and hypothesize how a team won due to luck. Have the jets had some good breaks? Yes. What matters is that the Jets find ways to win these close games, and that's what good teams do. The saints were 'lucky' last year. They won the superbowl I think.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

I'm not going to waste my time then, I know your type. Your hatred for the Jets will cause you to view anything and everything Jets related with a tainted lens. You dont watch jet games, you watch the rundown on ESPN. In the Lions game, did you see the two phantom personal fouls the Jets got for legal hits? Or when the referees took 20 seconds to rule a TD run at the goal line that took a clock stoppage away from the jets? (in relation to the 2 min warning). the personal foul on LT helps but its not a dealbreaker, there was still considerable time for the jets to gain that yardage.

Your problem is the same as I brought up with the stats, you only use the bits that benefit your argument. Guess what? I SAW SANCHEZ OUTPLAY TOM GAYDY in week 2. His stats were much better. Herp derp Brady sucks Lola

1.) I've watched every Jets game this season, save the Lions game. I noted in my post that I hadn't watched the Lions game.

2.) The Jets have been the beneficiary of many poor calls this year, but I only pointed out 1 (Denver game) to use as an example of how Sanchez has been bailed out.

3.) I never claimed that Sanchez hadn't had any moments where he played well. He had some of those last year too. He was still the second worst starting QB in the league, ahead of only Russell. This year, with the awful QB play of some teams, Sanchez is still somewhere in the bottom 10.

4.) Talking about my "hatred" for the Jets (it's disdain, not hatred), while calling the Patriots QB Tom Gaydy, is both trollish and hypocritical. Given that this is a Patriots board, it's also a bit stupid.

 

[darrelujah]

If you think the officiating in the Denver game was beneficial to the Jets you're out of your mind. Sure, the most important one that everyone saw with Santonio Holmes helped, but it's not as if it was unjustified.

The rest of the game was horrendous regarding the penalties called against the Jets. Rewatch the game, this is undebatable.

 

[NJPatsfan26]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

Regardless of what is said in here, its time to put up or shut up.

GO PATS!!

 

[Beecke]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

All I am really interested in is how Jets fans see their teams development over recent weeks.

There is no reason to not be confident in a 9-2 record, and with a record like that there will be enough stats to suggest you have a good team capable of beating anyone.

However, I would argue that the Patriots have made a big step forward since week 2. And although not having watched all the Jets games since then, it seems to me that they have been rather up and down, but good enough to grind out the wins.

As a pats fan I am confident based on our results and the trend of improving week by week. What does a Jets fan see when he looks at his team outwith the stats?

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

1. Can we all agree that Tom Brady has to play perfectly in order for the Patriots to win games this season? When he hasn't...they've struggled because they're near average everywhere else on the team. Patriot fans are looking at the Sanchez vs Brady match-up to determine who's going to win. But I've demonstrated that not many quarterbacks have done that well vs the Jets this season. Why will Tom Brady have a better shot this time than last time?

Tom will have to be good, but I don't see that as a relevant question since Sanchez will also have to do well. It's hard to win without a QB playing well. You can do it against some crappy teams, but against your 9-2 division rivals on Monday night, both QBs will have to play well to give their teams a chance.

As for why he has a better shot at it this time? Because he's Tom Brady! He's won 3 Super Bowls, won play-off road games against the #1 seed, gone 16-0 in the regular season...I think he can handle it.

Two other points. Both Brady turnovers were on forced passes to Moss, the first a long bomb which Brady has never been great at, the second a throw into single coverage with safety help over the top, and Moss tipped the ball up to give him a chance but got taken out by the combo defense. Since the Moss trade, we don't force those passes anymore.

A healthy Wes Welker will also help tremendously. In the losses to the Jets in the last two years, Welker has either been out or slowed by injury. In the only game he's played healthy, he had 15 catches for 192 yards. But instead of Moss on the other side, we now have Brady's first favourite target in Branch, a similar type of receiver. The short to intermediate passing game is much improved and a key to defeating the Jets.

2. How will the Patriots get to Sanchez? Patriots have 20 sacks in 11 games, while the Jets have only allowed 19 in 11 games. The Patriots 32nd ranked pass defense says that either you'll have to get after him or you'll give up yardage. Backup Lions QB Shaun Hill passed for 285 yards vs this defense and put up 24 points despite 2 interceptions. That should worry Patriots fans when playing a MUCH better defense in the Jets. The only two times the Jets have lost this season is when they have failed to score touchdowns. What do you expect The Patriot defense to do with regards to the Jets offense in this game?

The Patriots defense certainly has struggled at times, but they've dominated Big Ben and Peyton for 3 quarters. The thing is that the defense doesn't need to get sacks like many teams. We only registered 2 sacks against the Lions, both in garbage time, but were able to take over the game in the second half. Against the Colts, we didn't register a single sack but still pressured Manning into 3 picks. The yardage is definitely a concern. But we've done very well against several more elite QBs than Sanchez.

3. Vegas odds put the Patriots as only 3.5 point favorites vs the Jets. Now, anyone who follows and cares about Vegas odds knows that the home field advantage is worth 3 points. So basically bet makers think that the Jets Pats game is a push. DO you agree or disagree? Why? (I know, I know it sounds like an English comp. question)

It's a close game between two of the best teams in football. If it's basically a push though, I don't see that as a point in either the Pats or Jets favour. That's not a compelling argument either way. Not that what Vegas thinks should ever be used as a football fact

4. Last year in New England, Mark Sachez had 4 interceptions and 1 lost fumble in a 31-14 loss. This year he is much more judicious with the football. I've read some posts that think Mark Sanchez will have 3+ interceptions in this game. But unlike Manning and the Colts, you have to respect the running game of the Jets and cannot always tee off on the quarterback expecting a pass most of the time. If Mark Sanchez plays error free football (no picks, no fumbles) what percentage chance do you think the Patriots have of winning?

Sanchez has been very good with the football this year compared to last. But I'd worry a lot more if I were you.

First 4 games:
8 TDs, 0 INTs

Last 7 games:
8 TDs, 8 INTs

He had a great start to the season but has struggled since. Of course those struggles are still an improvement over last year, but I'm not so sure I'd be confident that Sanchez plays mistake-free.

If he doesn't turn the ball over, I think the Jets have a very good chance. But considering he's thrown at least 1 INT in his past 6 games, I wouldn't bet my life on it.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

I'd rather lose close games to good teams than be embarrassed by a bad team.

Wrong!

The Quality Standings from the Cold Hard Football Facts:

Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: 2010 Quality Standings

You have only (so far) beaten one team the Jets have lost to. Similarly, the Jets have beaten (so far) one team the Patriots have lost to. We'll have to see how you play vs Green Bay, how the Jets play vs the Steelers, and how we both play vs the Bears. We don't face the Colts or the Chargers.

Now you are waffling!

 

[ATippett56]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

The saints were 'lucky' last year. They won the superbowl I think.

The New Orleans Saints weren't lucky last year, they earned the right to be Super Bowl Champions.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

Grab a pencil and a notepad Einstein, let me make this clear. Past history as has been brought up is your compatriots mentioning Bills, Dolphins, and Patriots successes in past decades. Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, and Drew Bledsoe are not playing today, the same way Ken O'Brien won't be coming out of the Jets tunnel. By the definition of the word, yes.. week 2 IS history, but for the most part the players and coaches are the same. The Patriots added Danny Woodhead who couldn't make the Jets active roster so you may have a point in this game being different though, it's like resurrecting Barry Sanders in his prime.

TL;DR: 1980's does not equal week 2 2010.

First, your reading comprehension is awful. Second, you still haven't answered my question. Since week 2 of the 2010 NFL Season (the first time the Patriots played the Jets), tell me the changes in the New England Patriots offense and defense.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

By the definition of the word, yes.. week 2 IS history, but for the most part the players and coaches are the same.

Wrong! The New England Patriots offense has overwhelmed their opponents in the last three games as the roster additions have now fully integrated themselves within the system.

 

[DaBruinz]

Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.

I did see the game vs the Lions. Calvin Johnson had 4 catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. I don't know if I'd call that a 'win' but he did to VERY well for a rookie. I am giving credit given where it is due and McCourty deserves it.

You're a liar. You didn't watch the game. If you had, you'd know that Johnson got the TD when Arrington was lined up against him. Not McCourtey. You just love making a fool of yourself.

So if Butler is 4th on the depth chart now, who replaced him and how will that replacement do against Edwards?

Arrington replaced Butler and he is an upgrade. Also, Meriweather is lining up on that side and should provide plenty of help. Something that didn't happen the 1st time because Meriweather was in the dog house.

The Jets receiving core is better than the Steelers. Hines Ward is aged and Mike Wallace, while very good, can not make up for the rest of the receiving options the Jets present this season.

Mike Wallace is better than anyone the Jets have. And I'd take Heath Miller at TE over Keller.