Which player(s) has been the biggest disappointment so far?

[Deus Irae]

After last season's performances, I fully expected Julian Edelman to match or exceed his 2009 production of 37 catches. He's my biggest disappointment. Last year, he demonstrated the quickness, elusiveness and good hands that were going to make him a star for us. But in fact, he's done squat. To date, he has:

4 catches for 14 yards, avg. 3.5ypc...FOR THE SEASON.


I don't know how one can say Tate is a disappointment before mentioning Edelman. Tate is coming off two knee surgeries, having never made a catch in the NFL. While hopeful, I didn't have any real expectations for him. Just hopes and dreams. Through 7 games, Tate's receiving yards are about 20-fold more than Edelman's. Plus, he's taken to KR back for scores. Teams are kicking away from him.

Edelman is the disappointment, not Tate.

Edelman was expected to be the backup to Welker. Then, we saw the impact of the two tight ends. I'm not saying that Edelman hasn't been disappointing. I'm saying he's not really had much of an opportunity to be graded.

Of course, that's just my $.02

 

[jbb9s]

I don't really understand Sammy Morris' roll on the team. With Fragile Fred biting the dust, I thought Sammy would get carries to augment the young guys coming along. Anyhow, I see Sammy in at fullback and in on special teams, but he isn't getting carries. I wonder why BB doesn't trust him and then why he doesn't carry a younger guy that has some upside instead of an old guy with only downside. Does Sammy just not have the ability to run?

 

[Lamanai]

Edelman was expected to be the backup to Welker. Then, we saw the impact of the two tight ends. I'm not saying that Edelman hasn't been disappointing. I'm saying he's not really had much of an opportunity to be graded.

Of course, that's just my $.02

I hear what you are saying about being Welker's backup, but in the four games since Moss left (and concievably many opportunities for various players to step up and fill the void), Edelman has notched 0,0,0,0. In multiple receiver sets, I had hoped he could be on the field and producing, with Welker.

I am still hopeful that it was all due to a hurt toe/foot and he turns it around. But to date, major disappointment.

 

[Deus Irae]

I hear what you are saying about being Welker's backup, but in the four games since Moss left (and concievably many opportunities for various players to step up and fill the void), Edelman has notched 0,0,0,0. In multiple receiver sets, I had hoped he could be on the field and producing, with Welker.

I am still hopeful that it was all due to a hurt toe/foot and he turns it around. But to date, major disappointment.

He's not subbing in for the blocking TE, so he's not taking Crumpler's snaps. He's not playing line, so those snaps are out. He's not going to be a pure RB, so the BJGE snaps are gone. No Fullback snaps means that he's not replacing Connolly. He's not replacing Brady, so let's just move on from that one. Therefore....

You've got Gronkowski, Hernandez, Tate and Woodhead out on the field. Positional capability has to be taken into account, so he's got to have the outside receiver skills if he's going to replace Tate, etc... Which one are you sitting to get Edelman in (I'm not including Welker in the question because Edelman's his backup)?

Aren't you really in a position where you'd be sitting Hernandez in order to play Edelman? If so, does losing those snaps to Hernandez really constitute a disappointment?

Or is it the Branch snaps you're looking at?

 

[JackBauer]

I think you need to reassess your comparison. Tate is going to need a blow out year to even scrap the barrel that Roddy White was in in his 3rd season.

Through 2 years, White's production leaves Tate's for dead. Tate has been a disappointment for mine this year on offense not on special teams.

Last year Tate didn't even play. This is essentially his rookie season.

Roddy White's rookie numbers: 29 recs, 446 yards, 3 TD's.
Roddy White's sophomore numbers: 30 recs, 503 yards, 0 TD's.

White didn't blow up until his third season in the league. Given the fact that wideouts are notoriously slow starters, and that very few rookie receivers have come on the Patriots and produced their rookie season, I'm willing to exercise patience in Tate's case. The jury is still out.

 

[ausbacker]

Last year Tate didn't even play. This is essentially his rookie season.

Roddy White's rookie numbers: 29 recs, 446 yards, 3 TD's.
Roddy White's sophomore numbers: 30 recs, 503 yards, 0 TD's.

White didn't blow up until his third season in the league. Given the fact that wideouts are notoriously slow starters, and that very few rookie receivers have come on the Patriots and produced their rookie season, I'm willing to exercise patience in Tate's case. The jury is still out.

Which leaves what Tate has produced for dead. If you can't see than then fine. I expected more from Tate this year and he hasn't delivered. It's my personal opinion and nothing more.

 

[JackBauer]

Which leaves what Tate has produced for dead. If you can't see than then fine. I expected more from Tate this year and he hasn't delivered. It's my personal opinion and nothing more.

I guess I don't get your point. Tate is on pace to produce more than White did in either of his first two seasons.

 

[mgteich]

I agree with your analysis. Edelman is essentially the #7 receiver option after Welker, Branch, Hernandez, Tate, Grankowski and Woodhead.

As you point out, Green-Ellis and Crumpler are also on the field getting their reps.

I would do as Belichick has done, even if Edelman were 100% healthy. Edelman is a back slot receiver. And one could argue that we have two ahead of him in the depth chart: Welker and Branch. In the end, it is not clear that Edelman would even be active if he didn't return punts.

I wouldn't even put in Edelman if we were running one of our rare 5-wide plays. I'd have Gronk in as one the wideouts. And Hernadez is certainly one of the 4-wides befor Edelman.

The bottom line is that it is good to have solid depth with a role on the team. Edelman is a fine backup for Welker and a reasonable punt returner, not bad at all for a 7th round pick.

He's not subbing in for the blocking TE, so he's not taking Crumpler's snaps. He's not playing line, so those snaps are out. He's not going to be a pure RB, so the BJGE snaps are gone. No Fullback snaps means that he's not replacing Connolly. He's not replacing Brady, so let's just move on from that one. Therefore....

You've got Gronkowski, Hernandez, Tate and Woodhead out on the field. Positional capability has to be taken into account, so he's got to have the outside receiver skills if he's going to replace Tate, etc... Which one are you sitting to get Edelman in (I'm not including Welker in the question because Edelman's his backup)?

Aren't you really in a position where you'd be sitting Hernandez in order to play Edelman? If so, does losing those snaps to Hernandez really constitute a disappointment?

Or is it the Branch snaps you're looking at?

 

[NHPATSFAN11]

Brady without a DOUBT. It's perfectly reasonable to have high expectations for the highest paid qb in the NFL. He's certainly not in the elite group of qb's this year, I would say middle of the pack with players like Flacco. Of course, this is from peformance alone, not leadership and other intangibles. I just don't have the faith in him like I used to. I've come to expect 3 and outs, overthrown balls, being flustered way too easily in the pocket. I think the one play that epitomized his play this year was the the 3 and goal in San Diego where Brady could have crawled the two yards into the end zone but instead elected to thrown the ball away.

 

[The Dynasty]

Brady without a DOUBT. It's perfectly reasonable to have high expectations for the highest paid qb in the NFL. He's certainly not in the elite group of qb's this year, I would say middle of the pack with players like Flacco. Of course, this is from peformance alone, not leadership and other intangibles. I just don't have the faith in him like I used to. I've come to expect 3 and outs, overthrown balls, being flustered way too easily in the pocket. I think the one play that epitomized his play this year was the the 3 and goal in San Diego where Brady could have crawled the two yards into the end zone but instead elected to thrown the ball away.

Brady is the 6th best QB in the league based on QB rating. He isnt putting up the numbers that fans want to see, but he is keeping the Pats in every game and not making mistakes, only 4 INTs all year. He is doing his job. Brady doesnt have the talent on the offense to really put up big numbers

 

[Deus Irae]

Brady is the 6th best QB in the league based on QB rating. He isnt putting up the numbers that fans want to see, but he is keeping the Pats in every game and not making mistakes, only 4 INTs all year. He is doing his job. Brady doesnt have the talent on the offense to really put up big numbers

What I think we're seeing is that either people here have forgotten 2001-2006 or they are new to the party.

 

[NHPATSFAN11]

What I think we're seeing is that either people here have forgotten 2001-2006 or they are new to the party.

I love how people can criticize Brady in the present because of what he has done in the past. I dont think there is a sane Pats fan in the world that doesnt think Brady is one of the best if not the best Qb's to play the game. Unfortunately, his past accomplishments and reputuation does not complete passes this year in o fitself. I just dont see the logic. We're all afraid to admit it but the highest paid qb in the nfl is soft this year.

 

[The Dynasty]

I love how people can criticize Brady in the present because of what he has done in the past. I dont think there is a sane Pats fan in the world that doesnt think Brady is one of the best if not the best Qb's to play the game. Unfortunately, his past accomplishments and reputuation does not complete passes this year in o fitself. I just dont see the logic. We're all afraid to admit it but the highest paid qb in the nfl is soft this year.

What do you think the Patriots record would be without Brady this year?

I would say in the 3-5, 4-4 range. He is getting W's and that is the only thing that matters. I dont think many Pats fans saw the team at 6-2 at this point, one of the major reasons for their record is Brady and how he has led such a young offense to be fairly successful

 

[Deus Irae]

I love how people can criticize Brady in the present because of what he has done in the past. I dont think there is a sane Pats fan in the world that doesnt think Brady is one of the best if not the best Qb's to play the game. Unfortunately, his past accomplishments and reputuation does not complete passes this year in o fitself. I just dont see the logic. We're all afraid to admit it but the highest paid qb in the nfl is soft this year.

Ignoring 2000, since it was a 3 pass "season":

Brady's 2010 comp% is 63.8, higher than any year prior to 2007 except for his 63.9% in 2001.

Brady's 2010 sack% is 4.7. It was never lower than that prior to 2007.

Brady's 2010 TD% is 5.4, higher than any year prior to 2007 except for his 5.9 in 2004.

Brady's 2010 INT% is 1.5. Prior to 2007, it had never been lower than 2.3.

Brady's 2010 QB rating is 95.7. Prior to 2007, it had never been higher than 92.6

Brady's 2010 TD/INT ratio is 14:4, which is 3.5:1. Prior to 2007, his best TD/INT ratio was 2:1 (28:14 twice and 24:12 once).


What we are seeing right now is an older, better Brady now running an offense more like the pre-2007 offense, but with a receiving corps that currently has a bad mix of young, inexperienced, injured and questionably talented players, and the worst running game this team's had since he's been the starter. As I've noted in a few places this week, Brady hasn't been perfect, but he's been damned good.

 

[eagle eye]

Brandon Meriweather has played well since the Miami game.

 

[USCPatriot]

I agree, these past 2 games Brady and the O-Line have played magnificently, ESPECIALLY during the Browns game. Brady was setting up a camp fire back there he had so much time, its to bad the WR core couldn't even get half open to help Brady out a bit. Brady has turned into vintage Brady, ball control and let the WR develop the play. Hernandez is really the only one that really has gotten open in the Browns game, minus double covering Welker.

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

Vollmer's been nothing special, but I saw issues with him last year, so it's not really a surprise.

Agreed. This is why I always scratch my head when posters want Light gone, and Vollmer at LT. Maybe in the future, but not now. Is there a big enough difference between the positions, that maybe Vollmer is just a better LT, than he is a RT? I was always under the impression that RT is easier than LT.

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

I don't really understand Sammy Morris' roll on the team. With Fragile Fred biting the dust, I thought Sammy would get carries to augment the young guys coming along. Anyhow, I see Sammy in at fullback and in on special teams, but he isn't getting carries. I wonder why BB doesn't trust him and then why he doesn't carry a younger guy that has some upside instead of an old guy with only downside. Does Sammy just not have the ability to run?

I wondered this too. I liked Sammys running. I assumed that with Fred injured, he'd hold the fort down. Not that I don't like the Law Firm, but Sammy is more experienced.

Here's to hoping BB drafts the next Dillon in 2011 :eat3:

 

[Kasmir]

He's not subbing in for the blocking TE, so he's not taking Crumpler's snaps. He's not playing line, so those snaps are out. He's not going to be a pure RB, so the BJGE snaps are gone. No Fullback snaps means that he's not replacing Connolly. He's not replacing Brady, so let's just move on from that one. Therefore....

You've got Gronkowski, Hernandez, Tate and Woodhead out on the field. Positional capability has to be taken into account, so he's got to have the outside receiver skills if he's going to replace Tate, etc... Which one are you sitting to get Edelman in (I'm not including Welker in the question because Edelman's his backup)?

Aren't you really in a position where you'd be sitting Hernandez in order to play Edelman? If so, does losing those snaps to Hernandez really constitute a disappointment?

Or is it the Branch snaps you're looking at?

I suspect Edelman's hurt. He looked *great* in the first preseason game, then got hurt. Granted he hasn't gotten opportunities, but he looks sluggish when he's been out there. His quickness and elusiveness are gone. The sample size is small, but he has a -81% DVOA this year, which is incredibly bad:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | WIDE RECEIVERS 2010

His DYAR at -29 is ridiculous as well: he's been targeted 12 times and produced 29 yards less than a replacement level WR would be expected to.

A little off topic, but you like stats, so while I've got FO open, here's some more interesting stuff:

Interestingly, FO still has Brady with the 2nd best DVOA of any quarterback:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | WIDE RECEIVERS 2010

Very interesting, because all of our WR's are terrible: Branch is 36th in DVOA, Welker 54th, and Tate 70th (Moss is 33rd, but that includes his MN time, and Branch includes his SEA stint).

Our passing game is still 2nd in DVOA (although it's trending down and this is the first week this season we haven't been 1st):

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2010 OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Note also that our much derided running game is still 3rd in DVOA.

So with our WR's so bad, it must be the TE's and RB's that are producing. Indeed we find that Hernandez is 8th in the league in DVOA and Gronkowski still 10th after Sunday's stinker:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | TIGHT ENDS 2010

That's pretty impressive, having two TE's in the leagues's top 10 on the same team (Crumpler has less than 6 receptions so isn't rated).

The really impressive player in the receiving game is Danny Woodhead. He's 1st in the league in RB receiving DVOA at 61.4%. To put that in perspective, it's a better per-play efficiency than *any* skill position player except Antonio Gates (at 74%):

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | RUNNING BACKS 2010

I can only imagine how bad our offense would be if we hadn't lucked into Woodhead -- he'd also be 1st in *rushing* DVOA if he had enough qualifying carries. (BJGE is 3rd in rushing DVOA -- when he gets past the LOS we win. Note that Faulk didn't play much before he went out, but would rank 12th in the league in RB receiving DVOA if he qualified).

So our eyes haven't been deceiving us: Brady to Hernandez and Woodhead has been carrying this team's passing offense, enough so that Tom Brady is the 2nd most effective QB in the league on a per play basis. Our WR crew is worse than mediocre.

And here I was one of those thinking Brady was the problem

It's the WR position that's the biggest disappointment.

 

[ausbacker]

I guess I don't get your point. Tate is on pace to produce more than White did in either of his first two seasons.

I'm sure he is in whatever fictional world that is you live in. Unless he does something remarkable in the second half of the season I am going to be personally disappointed with what he's done on offense.